Mad Hedge Technology Letter
August 9, 2019
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(HIGH-RISK LYFT)
(LYFT), (UBER)
Mad Hedge Technology Letter
August 9, 2019
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(HIGH-RISK LYFT)
(LYFT), (UBER)
Lyft (LYFT) has the wind at its back but that doesn’t mean you should bet the ranch on it.
In Silicon Valley, “peak losses” are two words that can deliver a great earnings report.
That is where we are at with tech’s risk tolerance.
It’s no surprise some of these outfits burn money like no other, Lyft rejigged guidance from EBITDA losses of $1.15 billion to $1.175 billion down to $850 million to $875 million.
The main reason Uber (UBER), Lyft, and I’ll lump Netflix (NFLX) into the mix too, lose money is because they intentionally underprice their services allowing consumers to take advantage of a great deal in relative terms stoking outperforming revenue growth.
All those years of losses can be shouldered by the venture capitalists if revenue growth outweighs the pain of short-term losses.
But when a company takes that step to go public, everything changes.
No longer can they sweep the mountain of losses under the carpet to the deep-pocketed VCs, but they are penalized for it by a lower share price under the control of panicky shareholders.
Lyft started to raise prices in June and since Uber went public as well, the duopoly is in the same boat.
This means that your rideshare route home from the bar after the last call is about to get more expensive.
Since Lyft and Uber have a boatload of data, they will surgically pick and identify the routes and distance that do the least damage to end demand.
This will clearly be the routes and distances that have such an overwhelming and pent up demand that they can nudge up prices an extra 5% or more if they can get away with it.
In my head, these routes mean downtowns in metros with high paying jobs with poor public transportation links such as Los Angeles or Seattle.
Another route that I believe will get a bump in price is late-night surcharges often when partygoers are inebriated or out on the town.
Lyft has pockets of opportunities to exploit.
The cost inflation won’t stop there because even though Lyft “beat expectations” due to this pricing change, there is the long-term fixation on profitability that haunts management.
The pricing trick made Lyft rejig its annual targets expecting revenue of between $3.47 billion and $3.5 billion this year, up from a previously stated range of $3.275 billion to $3.3 billion.
The one metric that bodes well for the service is the 21.8 million “active riders” on its platform beating expectations by about 0.7 million year-over-year.
Lyft’s services are scalable and the growth will help mitigate losses and even though it’s in the public market, that doesn’t mean that it can’t stop growing.
Both ride-sharing services going public at almost the same time has meant that the price war that resulted in massive discounts to riders is no more.
Each service has incentives to raise prices in the most pain-reductive way possible for riders.
This particular tech category is certainly high risk - high reward as Lyft and Uber still face ongoing litigation in California courts concerning the job status of its drivers about whether they are classified as employees or independent contractors.
The more imminent issue is how much can they price hike before consumers balk.
Riders certainly have a price threshold that they aren’t willing to accommodate.
Luckily, Uber and Lyft have a treasure trove of data and can manipulate it to their interests by floating out trial balloons to test bold initiatives.
These two tech companies will not be able to shake off the volatility disease for the foreseeable future as the laundry list of predicaments spell turbulence.
Long term, they must show more to investors than “peak losses” but for the time being, they have survived the gauntlet.
I would not buy shares short-term, the most recent spike has snatched away an accommodative entry point.
“Bigger than the world of the world is your mind.” – Said Founder and CEO of Huawei Ren Zhengfei
Mad Hedge Technology Letter
August 7, 2019
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(CORD-CUTTING IS ACCELERATING)
(DIS), (T), (NFLX), (CMCSA)
Cord-cutting is picking up steam – that is the last thing traditional media want to hear.
There are several foundational themes that this newsletter has glued onto readers' foreheads.
The generational pivot to cloud-based media is one of them.
It’s easy to denominate this phenomenon down to Netflix (NFLX) but in 2019, this trend is so much more than Netflix.
E-marketer published a survey showing that cord-cutters will surpass 20% of all U.S. adults by the end of 2019.
The rapid demise of traditional television has been equally as mind-numbing with the 100.5 million subscribers in 2014 turning into 86.5 million subscribers today.
Comcast (CMCSA) has tried to buck the trend by homing in on fast broadband internet, but that strategy can only go so far.
Disney (DIS), WarnerMedia, and NBCUniversal Disney have really gotten their ducks in a row and are on the verge of launching their own unique streaming services.
Disney's service entails a 3-segment strategy bringing in Hulu and ESPN Plus to the Disney fold.
The Disney service will revolve around family content at its core so don’t expect Game of Thrones lookalikes.
WarnerMedia's hopes to cash in on its HBO brand while peppering it with original series and programming from Warner Bros. and DC.
Disney will be able to lean on family brands of Marvel, Star Wars, and Pixar, and newly acquired National Geographic.
Marvel Cinematic Universe is a growth asset pumping out more than $22 billion at the box office across 23 movies.
Disney Plus will also have a solid collection of Disney films to play with, which could make it indispensable to parents and comes with no ads making it even more appealing to kids.
Disney will also deploy some mix of bundles to diversify its offerings and personalize services for viewers who do not want its entire lineup of content.
The soon-to-be HBO Max will implement HBO original content along with WarnerMedia brands like Warner Bros., DC Entertainment, TBS, TNT, and CNN.
HBO Max will have a treasure trove of old Warner Bros. movies and TV shows, like "Friends" and "The Fresh Prince of Bel Air," that has played extremely well on Netflix.
HBO will get those titles back at the end of 2019.
HBO has also tied up with BBC Studios to stream "Doctor Who."
"You should assume that HBO Max will have live elements," said Randall Stephenson, chairman and CEO of AT&T, on the company's second quarter conference call.
This roughly translates into HBO Max snapping up live sports and music events to complement scripted content.
This is something that Netflix has shied away from and live events are best monetized through live ads.
The last big label service to go into effect is NBC’s yet to be named streaming service.
NBCUniversal will have the luxury of offering their cable subscribers a chance to pivot to an in-house online streaming service making the move seamless.
At first, the 21 million US cable-TV subscribers will receive the streaming content for free.
Some of the assets that will trot out on the NBC platform are "The Office," because NBC is removing it from Netflix for 2021.
As cord-cutters hasten their move to streaming, this trio of loaded content-creating firms will benefit as long as they maintain a high quality of content and the pipeline to please fidgety consumers.
“One of the only ways to get out of a tight box is to invent your way out.” – Said Founder and CEO of Amazon Jeff Bezos
Mad Hedge Technology Letter
August 5, 2019
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(THE CHINA TARIFF BOMBSHELL AND TECHNOLOGY),
(AAPL), (NVDA), (INTC), (MU), (WDC), (BBY)
With one little tweet, the state of technology and the companies that rely on the public markets that serve them went haywire.
U.S. President Donald Trump levied another 10% on the $300 billion that had not been tariffed up yet compounding the misery for anyone who has any vested interest in trade with mainland China.
The tariffs will take effect on September 1st.
How does this shake out for American technology?
Any brand tech name that has substantial supply chain operations can kiss their stay in the Middle Kingdom goodbye.
If management didn’t understand that before, then it's clear as night that they need to shift their supply chain out of the reaches of the Chinese communist party.
The U.S. Administration tripling down on China being our archnemesis means that any sort of cross-border economic trade or cultural exchange will be viewed through the prism of warped geopolitics.
The U.S. President Donald Trump has in fact taken a page out of the Chinese playbook turning everything he sees and touches into a transactional tool for what he is pursuing at the time or in the future.
Specific companies facing the wrath of the tariffs are companies as conspicuous as Apple filtering down to the SMEs that make local business local.
Semiconductor chips are a huge loser in this new development as the price of electronic goods will rise with the tariffs.
If you want a name that lies in the heart of electronic consumer goods, then BestBuy (BBY) would encapsulate this thesis and unsurprisingly they were taken out to the back of the woodshed and taught a lesson dropping 10% on the news.
Any technology outfit that imports goods from China will be hit as well and this means semiconductor chips along the lines of Nvidia (NVDA), Intel (INTC), Western Digital (WDC) and Micron (MU) among others.
Chips are the meat and bones that go into end products like iPads and a slew of smart devices.
Demand will be hit because of the cost of producing these types of consumer products will rise.
The softness is showing up in the numbers with Apple’s iPhone revenue down 12% year-over-year.
Samsung of Korea also showed that this isn’t just an American problem with their semiconductor division’s operating profits down 71% year-over-year.
The Korean conglomerate is in a spat with the Japanese government over war crimes from the second world war causing the Japanese government to bottleneck the supply of chemicals needed to produce high-level semiconductor chips.
The export restriction will drag down SK Hynix display business who is one of the largest producers of DRAM chips and also a Korean company.
Consumers are also using their phones longer with Apple iPhone customers holding their device up to 4 years delaying the refresh cycle.
The company that Steve Jobs built will have to repurpose themselves for a brave new tech landscape that includes heavier regulation, trade tariffs, and device saturation.
When investors talk about the “low hanging fruit,” at this point, Apple isn’t one of them.
And if you think the services business is a cakewalk, ponder about how many apps and behemoths that spit out a whole lineup of apps.
Apple still has its ecosystem and should guard it with its life, this is the same ecosystem that can charge Google around $10 billion per year to slap on Google search as the primary search engine on Apple devices.
Expect tech to telegraph a deceleration in revenue for the last quarter and next year.
The tech environment is brittle at this point and uncertainty wafts in the air like a hot stack of pancakes.
“It's really hard to design products by focus groups. A lot of times, people don't know what they want until you show it to them.” – Said Co-Founder of Apple Steve Jobs
Mad Hedge Technology Letter
August 2, 2019
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(THE GREAT LATIN AMERICAN INTERNET PLAY),
(MELI), (PYPL), (AMZN), (EBAY)
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