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DougD

My Very Last Chance to Buy My Trade Alert Service at the Old Price

Diary

Due to a number of technical difficulties, many potential new subscribers were denied the opportunity to buy my award winning Trade Alert Service at the old price of $1,997 before the price increase. Among other things, the site crashed a few times because of the sheer volume of people attempting to sign up at once.

Since I highly value loyalty, I am therefore offering this price one last time, this weekend only, to give people a chance to get in. On Monday, the price jumps 50%, right back to the now standard price of $3,000, where it will remain for the rest of this year.

It is an old adage in the investment business that you get what you pay for. My Trade Alert Service was the top performing online mentoring service of 2011. Those who closely followed my 56 trade alerts closely, which I shoot out through email and text messages, earned a 40.17% on the year. If my email traffic is anything to go by, many readers did much better than that.

It is looking like 2012 will be just as hot. Check out the returns of my the last few trades that went out over the past three weeks:

Short natural gas - +75%
Short Yen - +64%
Short Bank of America - +30%

My Global Trading Dispatch is a bundled package of services that includes the Trade Alert Service, a daily newsletter offering 3-4 investment ideas a day, a two million word online data base of trading ideas, a daily profit & loss plus risk analysis of my trading book, interviews with investment heavyweights on Hedge Fund Radio, and live customer support to make sure it all works seamlessly and effortlessly. The research explores long and short opportunities in global stocks, bonds, foreign currencies, commodities, energy, precious metals, and real estate.

To subscribe to the Mad Hedge Fund Trader?s Trade Alert Service, please go to my website at www.madhedgefundtrader.com , find the Global Trading Dispatch box on the right, and click on the lime green ?SUBSCRIBE NOW? button at the bottom. I look forward to working with you. And thank you for supporting my research.

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/Overworked2-8.jpg 134 170 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2012-02-16 23:04:452012-02-16 23:04:45My Very Last Chance to Buy My Trade Alert Service at the Old Price
DougD

The Long View on Emerging Markets

Newsletter

I managed to catch a few comments in the distinct northern accent of Jim O'Neil, the fabled analyst who invented the 'BRIC' term, and who has been kicked upstairs to the chairman's seat at Goldman Sachs International (GS) in London.

Jim thinks that it is still the early days for the space, and that these countries have another ten years of high growth ahead of them. As I have been pushing emerging markets since the inception of this letter in 2008, this is music to my ears. By 2018 the combined GDP of the BRIC's; Brazil (EWZ), Russia (RSX), India (PIN), and China (FXI), will match that of the US. China alone will reach two thirds of the American figure for gross domestic product. All that requires is for China to maintain a virile 8% annual growth rate for eight more years, while the US plods along at an arthritic 2% rate. China's most recent quarterly growth rate came in at a blistering 8%.

?BRIC? almost became the 'RIC' when O'Neil was formulating his strategy a decade ago. Conservative Brazilian businessmen were convinced that the new elected Luiz Ignacio Lula da Silva would wreck the country with his socialist ways. He ignored them and Brazil became the top performing market of the G-20 since 2000. An independent central bank that adopted a strategy of inflation targeting was transformative.

This is not to say that you should rush out and load up on emerging markets tomorrow. The entire asset class is still digesting its grim performance in 2011, which saw the average BRIC stock market fall 20%, and there may be some work to do here. American big cap stocks are the flavor of the day, and as long as this is the case, emerging markets will continue to blend in with the wall paper. Still, with growth rates triple or quadruple our own, they will not stay ?resting? for long.

 

 

 

 

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2012-02-16 23:03:522012-02-16 23:03:52The Long View on Emerging Markets
DougD

Murray Sayle: The Passing of a Giant in Journalism

Evening VIP

I was saddened to hear of the death of my close friend, the Australian, Murray Sayle, after a long battle with Parkinson's disease at the age of 84.

Murray was one of the giants of journalism in the second half of the 20th century. He started by editing the newspaper at University of Sydney, where his incendiary opinions got him expelled from school. It seems there was a problem with his suggestion to erect a statue of Priapus at the administration building honoring the chancellor, but only at the back door. He moved on to London's Fleet Street in 1952, arriving as a wet behind the ears, but sassy colonial, and landed a job with a small paper named The People. This was when the media was then dominated by giant daily broadsheets. He went on to become the quintessential war correspondent, reporting for the London Times, known in the trade as the ?Thunderer?, because the building shook when its giant presses ran.

I first met Murray in 1975 at a Mensa meeting in Tokyo where I was presenting a paper on the chemical structure and properties of tetrahydrocanabinol. Murray was on the hunt for a story, as always. He was cooling off after a decade of dodging bullets, bombs, shrapnel, and napalm covering the war in Vietnam. Murray once told me that since his writings were often perceived as antiwar, it was a tossup who would shoot him first, the Vietcong or the Americans. Murray told me that the Foreign Correspondents' Club of Japan had one of the best English language libraries in the country, and that he would be happy to sponsor me for membership; thus inadvertently, launching me on a career in journalism.

Murray moved into a converted 19th century silk worm grower's farm house in a small mountain hamlet three hours outside of Tokyo with his wife Jenny, his tireless and loyal supporter. There, they raised three children who went through the local Japanese school system, soldiering on in their 19th century black German cadet uniforms as the only white kids in the district, emerging as flawless interpreters. I often made the long and arduous trip to Aikawa-cho (?Love River?) on weekends, spending long nights over endless flasks of hot sake listening to Murray drunkenly quote extended passages verbatim from Rudyard Kipling. We passionately debated the issues of the day until we fell asleep at the kotatsu. If I learned nothing else, it was that there is always another way to look at any issue. As I had the tendency to always turn up with a different Japanese girlfriend, his pet name for me became 'Randy'.

Over a career that spanned nearly 70 years, Murray scored countless interviews with notoriously difficult to reach figures, like Ch? Guevara and Yassir Arafat. He managed to nail defecting British spy, Kim Philby, by staking out the one newspaper stand in Moscow that sold the Financial Times. Murray would regale me with tales of Ugandan dictator 'Big Daddy' Idi Amin, who stored the severed head of his wife's former lover in his refrigerator. Murray won numerous awards for his Vietnam coverage and for his description of the barbarous downing of a Korean Airlines flight 007 off the coast of Japan by a Russian fighter in 1983, which killed 269 helpless civilians.

Just before he died, the university that shamefully ejected him 65 years earlier, made amends by awarding him an honorary doctorate. The wit, candor, and insight of this larger than life figure will be sorely missed.

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/sayle.jpg 438 353 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2012-02-16 23:02:192012-02-16 23:02:19Murray Sayle: The Passing of a Giant in Journalism
DougD

February 17, 2012 - Quote of the Day

Quote of the Day

?A central bank is best that governs least, but is prepared to govern radically when called upon,? said 19th century man of letters, Walter Bagehot, an early editor of The Economist

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/baghot.png 375 292 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2012-02-16 22:01:202012-02-16 22:01:20February 17, 2012 - Quote of the Day
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Trade Alert - Double Up (AAPL), February 16, 2012

Diary, Trade Alert

As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. Read more

0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2012-02-16 15:13:402012-02-16 15:13:40Trade Alert - Double Up (AAPL), February 16, 2012
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Trade Alert - (AAPL) February, 16, 2013

Diary, Trade Alert

As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. Read more

0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2012-02-16 12:22:472012-02-16 12:22:47Trade Alert - (AAPL) February, 16, 2013
DougD

Use Apple Timing to Short Bank of America Stock

Diary

There is a method to my madness.

It?s all about Apple (AAPL). A disproportionate share of the market volume has been pouring into Apple shares for the past two weeks. The higher it went, the more people wanted to buy. Just in the past week, the company has tacked on a staggering $75 billion in market capitalization. The action in the call options has been absolutely explosive.

The focus of the US stock market distilled down to not just a single sector, but a single stock. This kind of concentrated price action is a classic indicator of a market top. When Apple rolls over, the rest of the market will follow it down. Apple has pulled this off while virtually every other asset class is showing their own topping formations, including most other stocks, the euro, the yen, copper, gold, silver, and even the ags.

When I started my February 15 webinar at 12:00 noon EST, Apple was going gangbusters, up $15 to $525. By the time I finished, it had plunged $15, suggesting the short term top is in for the sizzling, innovative company. A rumor swept the market that Apple?s weighting in the NASDAQ would be diluted once again, which would be highly negative for the share price.

So am I going to sell short Apple stock? Heavens no! I love Steve Jobs? creation. I still think it will hit my long term target of $1,000 sooner than later. In fact, I just bought a new solid state MacBook Pro with all the specs maxed out and I am picking up my IPhone 4s on Friday.

Instead, I am going to use Apple as the signal for my cross market timing, and then short a stock I hate, Bank of America (BAC). This is one of the top performing stocks of 2012, soaring some 50%, in six weeks. Despite that move, it is still trading at a huge discount to book, meaning that traders think the company is lying through its teeth about the true extent of its loan losses.? Its shares are beating Apple by an almost 2:1 ratio this year, which has jumped only 28%. How perverse is that? The two companies are almost mirror images of each other. Think future versus past, booming versus broke, good versus evil, $525 versus $8.

The best run hedge funds use this type of cross market signaling all the time. I saw it constantly on the trading floor of Morgan Stanley. It is a great way to capture laggards and move into the highest beta names when a market reversal is imminent.

When I am in a selling mood, I want to sell the most expensive stock in the market that has had the most blistering recent gains. That describes (BAC) to a tee, which is nowhere near solving its structural problems and still has a declining real estate market to deal with.

I chose to buy puts on (BAC) instead of the (SPY) because you always get much greater volatility in individual names than an index has a whole. Look at (BAC)?s performance this year. A 7% rise in the (SPY) brought a 50% gain in (BAC). That kind of volatility works on the downside too. A single stock will outperform a basket every time. That?s how you maximize your bang per buck on the put options.

 

 

 

 

Check Out Bank Of America?s New Logo

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2012-02-15 23:04:422012-02-15 23:04:42Use Apple Timing to Short Bank of America Stock
DougD

Catching Up With Occupy Wall Street

Diary

I arrived early for a meeting in Salt Lake City the other day. I noticed a cluster of tents near the ice skating rink and thought I would catch an update on the Occupy Wall Street movement.

Two guys emerged from a jerry built, homemade structure and braved the frigid 20 degree temperatures to find out what I was all about. I said I was a card carrying member of the 1% and wanted hear their side of the story. They replied that the local movement had dwindled from 100?s to a couple of dozen hard cores, due to the inclement weather. Indeed, there were mounds of fresh snow piled around the edges of the square. But they fully expected their numbers to rebuild after the spring though. The police were being cool and leaving them alone. As we spoke, I noticed an occupier head off to work.

I am following this movement closely because it has the potential to turn the election upside down this year. This could be the Tea Party of 2012, with a similarly large impact on the election results. President Obama has recently expressed sympathies with Occupy aims, while safely keeping his distance from the actual movement. If he can frame this election in terms of the 99% versus the 1%, and paint Romney in a corner as representing the 1%, then he has a winner. He poll numbers have recently been rising sharply, and have been tracking nearly 1:1 with the S&P 500 Index.

I asked them what they wanted and what I got was a minestrone soup of accurate facts, urban legends, and folk tales. I corrected them at every turn. Yes, their interpretation of the repeal of Glass Steagle was correct, but the imposition of the Volker Rule will effectively bring its return. That?s what Bank of America (BAC) shares at $5 was telling us. No, there is no law barring ownership of more than 5 pounds of gold. In fact, you can purchase 100 ounce bars on the Internet. I have several friends who have done so. And the bars in Fort Knox in Kentucky aren?t really lead ones painted gold. I had someone check.

The Chinese don?t shoot its citizens for gold ownership. They stopped that a few years ago. Now they are trying to encourage individual gold ownership, and coin dealers selling once ounce gold and silver pandas are popping up everywhere. No, the Chinese economy is not going to crash, forcing them to sell all their Treasury bonds and crash our economy too.? Yes, the US dollar will remain the reserve currency for the rest of my life, but maybe not the rest of theirs. There just is no other alternative currency with the breadth and depth of the greenback. Alternatives proposed in the past, like the yen and the Euro, have proven to have far more problems than Uncle Buck.

I asked how they were fixed for food. They said that local bakeries were given them their old bread and pastries, and other supporters regularly dropped off dented canned food. I pulled a $100 out of my wallet and suggested they order in pizzas for lunch for everyone. They said that was really cool, but would I mind if it was vegetarian?

 

 


?Your Future May Be In Their Hands

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/2012Feb030.jpg 300 400 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2012-02-15 23:03:072012-02-15 23:03:07Catching Up With Occupy Wall Street
DougD

February 16, 2012 - Quote of the Day

Diary

?When you talk to private clients, they are nowhere near putting money into equities yet. You can?t even get them to understand dividend growth, let alone buying equities, because they are still worried about losing money. People are going to be very emotional. This is going to be a year of volatility until proven otherwise,? said Brian Belski, chief investment strategist at Oppenheimer & Co.

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/TIG.jpg 400 271 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2012-02-15 23:01:072012-02-15 23:01:07February 16, 2012 - Quote of the Day
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Trade Alert - (BAC) Update - February 15, 2012

Diary, Trade Alert

As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. Read more

0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2012-02-15 16:02:322012-02-15 16:02:32Trade Alert - (BAC) Update - February 15, 2012
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There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.

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