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DougD

Decoding What?s in Your Pocket

Diary

If you want to impress your friends with your vast knowledge of financial matters, then here are the Latin translations of the script on the backside of a US dollar bill.

?ANNUIT COEPTIS? means ?God has favored our undertaking.? ?NOVUS ORDO SECLORUM? translates into ?A new order has begun.? The Roman numerals at the base of the pyramid are ?1776.? The better known ?E PLURIBUS UNUM? is ?One nation from many people.?

The basic design for the cotton and linen currency with red and blue silk fibers, which has been in circulation since 1957, carries enough symbolism to drive conspiracy theorists to distraction. An all seeing eye? The darkened Western face of the pyramid? And of course, the number ?13? abounds.

Thank freemason Benjamin Franklin for these cryptic symbols, and watch Nicholas Cage?s historical adventure movie ?National Treasure.? The balanced scales in the seal are certainly wishful thinking and a bit quaint if they refer to the Federal budget. Study the buck closely, because there are soon going to be a lot more of them around.

 

 

What Did You Really Mean, Ben?

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/DOLLAR.jpg 322 355 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2012-03-22 23:04:382012-03-22 23:04:38Decoding What?s in Your Pocket
DougD

A Century Forecast on Emerging Markets

Diary

I love making very long term forecasts, because they give tremendous insights into the future of the global economy, and because at my advanced age, I won?t live long enough to see if I am right or wrong.

Check out the chart below which shows predicted GDP growth rates for a 100 year period from 1950 to 2050. It shows why you should be infatuated with emerging markets (EEM) like Brazil (EWZ), China (FXI), and India (PIN), lukewarm about the US (SPX), and avoiding Europe and Japan (EWJ) like the plague. It also gives the underlying argument behind my long term currency calls to stay short the yen.

The basic trade is to be long countries and currencies with high growth rates, and be short, or at least stay out of, countries and currencies with low growth rates. As exciting as this chart is, I really don?t see myself living another 38 years to 2050. But who knows? Isn?t 100 the new 80?

 

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/emereg.jpg 619 817 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2012-03-22 23:03:112012-03-22 23:03:11A Century Forecast on Emerging Markets
DougD

Buy Indonesia on the Dip

Diary

If you are looking for another emerging market to add to your list of things to buy on big dips, then take a look at Indonesia.

The world?s largest Muslim country offers a combination that I love, a population with great demographics that is also a major energy and commodities exporter. The archipelago is the biggest country in Southeast Asia and a huge exporter of oil and LPG to Japan on long term contracts. (An old friend of mine torched their Borneo fields at the beginning of WWII, and spent four years in a Japanese prison camp for his troubles.)

Other big exports include marvelous textiles, rubber, and increasingly rare tropical hardwoods. The global financial crisis only knocked their growth rate from 6.1% to 4.5%, and now it is back above 6%. No doubt, $63 billion of direct foreign investment into the country last year helped.

A series of tax reforms promise to keep the train moving, cutting the top corporate rate from 30% in 2008 to 28% in 2009, and 25% in 2010.? Wisdom Tree had the ?wisdom? to launch the country?s first ETF (IDX) close to a market bottom, a rare event indeed (what timing!), which became one of the best performers of 2009, rocketing over 300% from the lows to $60.

Islamic inspired terrorism is still a lingering concern. I keep Indonesia in the category of highly volatile, high risk, high return frontier markets that you only want to buy on a big dip. Keep it on your radar.

 

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/bali.jpg 215 170 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2012-03-22 23:02:522012-03-22 23:02:52Buy Indonesia on the Dip
DougD

March 23, 2012 - Quote of the Day

Quote of the Day

?If you can?t make yourself loved, make yourself feared,? said Meyer Amschel Rothschild, founder of the banking dynasty.

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/fear.jpg 170 116 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2012-03-22 23:01:242012-03-22 23:01:24March 23, 2012 - Quote of the Day
DougD

What?s Going on With the VXX?

Newsletter

Much of Wall Street was scratching their heads yesterday as the iPath S&P 500 Vix Short Term Futures ETN (VXX) plunged to new lifetime lows despite a 69 point decline in the Dow index. It wasn?t supposed to work that way. Falling markets should send investors scrambling to buy downside protection in the form of put options which would automatically send the volatility index skyward. Except when they don?t.

I spoke to over 30 market participants yesterday attempting to root out the cause of this seeming anomaly. All I got was shrugs or idle speculation. A (VXX) at this level assumes that the complacency now endemic in the market will continue for several more months. It is betting that the S&P 500 will continue moving sideways or up with no pull backs greater that 2%. Oh, really?

It is also discounting a rise in the (SPX) to 1,500, based on a multiple expansion from 14 to 15, while corporate earnings are falling. This will see confirmation when Q1, 2012 earnings start to hit in April. Oh, really again? It will do this in the face of economies that are dramatically slowing in both Europe and china while oil prices are spiking. Oh, really, a third time?

I finally got through to some friends in the Chicago pits who explained what was going on. A sizeable portion of the trading community believes that we will see a rise in volatility someday, but not in the near future. So they have been buying June and September call option in the volatility index (VIX). To pay for these they have been selling short calls in the front month April and May calls.

Since the (VXX) focuses on only the front two months of the options calendar, it has taken an inordinate brunt of the selling. This is why the (VXX) has continued a rapid decent even on days when the (VIX) was stable and the Dow was down. The first hint we got of this was on Monday, March 12 when traders started to roll in earnest from the March to the April (VIX) contract.

When they started executing this trade in December, both the short term and long term volatility were trading around 28. Holding a June or September call while selling calls for each expiring month against it has kept long dated volatility high at 28, but driven short term volatility down to an eye popping 14. Needless to say, it has been a huge money maker for the early participants.

How does this end? At some point we do get a serious sell off in the stock market, and the (VIX) rockets back up to 28 or higher. That means that anyone who initiates this position now will get slaughtered. But the long term players will simply write those losses off against the substantial short dated premium they have taken in in the meantime.

As long as this dynamic is in place, there really is no limit to how far the (VXX) can fall. As traders roll from one expiring month to the next, they will continue to hammer volatility. So when the (VXX) hit my stop loss at $20, the previous lifetime low for this contract, I let it stand and followed up with a trade alert reminder investors to bail.

Any loss that you don?t learn from is a wasted lesson that is bound to be repeated. The key in this situation is to make sure the hits don?t become life threatening by limiting them to small single digits. The combined loss of my two errant (VXX) trades came to -3.46% for my notional $100,000 portfolio. That is not the end of the world. It simply cancels out the profits I made earlier on my short positions in the Japanese yen and natural gas, as well as my long call spreads in Apple and Microsoft. Coming out here also lets me shrink and neutralize my book, a good think in these uncertain times.

I?m sure we?ll see the (VXX) above $30 sometime this year. I just don?t want to bleed to death before it happens.

 

 

 

Markets Can Remain Irrational Longer Than you Can Remain Solvent

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/keynes.jpg 300 250 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2012-03-21 23:05:002012-03-21 23:05:00What?s Going on With the VXX?
DougD

Leading Economic Indicator of the Week

Diary

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/Nissan-4.jpg 449 781 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2012-03-21 23:04:582012-03-21 23:04:58Leading Economic Indicator of the Week
DougD

The Fusion in Your Future

Diary

Expect to hear a lot about ignition in the next year. No, I don?t mean the rebuilt ignition for the beat up ?68 Cadillac El Dorado up on blocks in your front yard. I?m referring to the inauguration of the National Ignition Facility next door to me at Lawrence Livermore National Labs in Livermore, California.

Mention California to most people, and images of love beads, tie died T-shirts, and Birkenstocks come to mind. But it is also the home of the hydrogen bomb, which was originally designed amid the vineyards and cow pastures of this bucolic suburb. The thinking at the time was that if someone accidentally flipped the wrong switch, it wouldn?t blow up San Francisco, or more importantly, Berkeley.

The $5 billion project aims 192 lasers at a BB sized piece of frozen hydrogen, using fusion to convert it to helium and unlimited amounts of clean energy. The heat released by this process reaches 100 million degrees, hotter than the core of the sun, and will be used to fuel conventional steam electric power plants. There is no need for a four foot thick reinforced concrete containment structure that accounts for half the construction cost of conventional nuclear plants. The entire facility is housed in a large warehouse.

The raw material is seawater, and a byproduct is liquid hydrogen, which can be used to fuel cars, trucks, and aircraft. If this all sounds like it is out of Star Trek, you?d be right. I worked with these guys in the early seventies, back when math was used to make things, and before it was used to game financial markets, and I can tell you, there is not a smarter and more dedicated bunch of people on the planet.

If it works, we will get unlimited amounts of clean energy for low cost in about 20 years. Oil will only be used to make plastics and fertilizer, taking the price down to $10 for domestic production only. The crude left in the Middle East will become worthless. Lumps of coal will only be found in museums, or in jewelry, its original use. If it doesn?t work, it will melt the adjacent Mt. Diablo and take me with it. If you don?t get your newsletter tomorrow, you?ll know what happened. Now what is this switch for?

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/IGNITION.jpg 308 400 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2012-03-21 23:03:192012-03-21 23:03:19The Fusion in Your Future
DougD

Connecting Up America

Diary

Until now, the country?s power grid has been divided into three unconnected chunks, making transnational transmission impossible, leading to huge regional mispricing. While California and New York suffered from brown outs and sky high prices, electricity was given away virtually for free in Texas.

A group of power companies is now proposing to build the $1 billion Tres Amigas superstation in Clovis, New Mexico that would connect all three grids. The plant would use advanced superconducting technology that will send five gigawatts of power down cables cooled at 300 degrees below zero. Construction is expected to begin this year and reach completion in 2014.

The facility would solve a major headache of alternative energy planners, and will no doubt accelerate development. It would allow the enormous wind farms on the drawing board in the Midwest to ship energy to the power hungry coasts. Ditto for the mega solar projects proposed in the Southwest deserts, and the big geothermal plants being built in Nevada.

With the Department of Energy having already sent tidal waves of government cash towards the sector, the timing couldn?t be better. With gasoline prices rapidly approaching $5 a gallon, some of these projects might now actually make some sense.

 

 

 

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/SOLAR-1.jpg 260 360 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2012-03-21 23:02:522012-03-21 23:02:52Connecting Up America
DougD

March 22, 2012 - Quote of the Day

Quote of the Day

?Inflation steals from savers, and inflation is the logical consequence of printing too much money,? said Oracle of Omaha, Warren Buffett.

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/BUFFET-1.jpg 420 362 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2012-03-21 23:01:442012-03-21 23:01:44March 22, 2012 - Quote of the Day
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Follow Up - (VXX) March 21, 2012

Trade Alert

As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/investing-a-z-stock-market-game-for-students.jpg 240 320 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2012-03-21 15:34:452012-03-21 15:34:45Follow Up - (VXX) March 21, 2012
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Legal Disclaimer

There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.

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