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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

MOT Follow-Up to Text Alert - (SPX) October 31, 2016

MOT Trades

While the Global Trading Dispatch focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Options Trader, provided by Matt Buckley, will focus primarily on the weekly US equity options expirations, with the goal of making profits at all times. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/SPX-8-e1477937698197.jpg 287 580 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2016-10-31 14:20:092016-10-31 14:20:09MOT Follow-Up to Text Alert - (SPX) October 31, 2016
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Trade Alert - (TLT) October 31, 2016

Trade Alert

As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Alert-e1457452190575.jpg 135 150 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2016-10-31 10:00:502016-10-31 10:00:50Trade Alert - (TLT) October 31, 2016
DougD

October 31, 2016 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.

MDT Alert

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2016-10-31 09:26:562016-10-31 09:26:56October 31, 2016 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.
DougD

October 31, 2016

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
October 31, 2016
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK OF OCTOBER 31ST),
(THANK GOODNESS I DON?T LIVE IN SWEDEN),
(EWD),
(PLEASE SEARCH MY FREE DATA BASE)

iShares MSCI Sweden (EWD)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2016-10-31 01:09:052016-10-31 01:09:05October 31, 2016
DougD

Market Outlook for the Week of October 31st

Diary, Newsletter

So who will win the contest of the century?

The nation is sitting on the edge of its seats and holding its collective breath.

No, I?m not talking about the presidential election, dummy!

I?m referring to the World Series, and whether the Chicago Cubs will break a 108-year losing streak.

Go Cubs!

Welcome to the best trading week of the year.

Yes, historically, the first trading week of November has the highest year-on-year return of any week of the year, based on data going back 70 years.

You know that ?Sell in May and go away? thing? The flipside is ?Buy in November and hold until May? which kicks in tomorrow.

This is the six months of the year that, for the past seven decades, have delivered the ENTIRE positive return for US equity investment.

Except that this time, a certain development which occurred last Friday may turn this precedent upside down.

That would be a new batch of emails.

That?s just what the Clinton campaign DIDN?T want to hear 11 days before the presidential election.

Stocks sold off, but recovered when it was learned that the source was Anthony Weiner, the infamous and disgraced ?sexting? former congressman.

So what are we looking for here? Dirty pictures?

I know for sure that Weiner and his wife are NOWHERE on the security clearance ladder, so it's highly unlikely that they have anything of consequence.

I doubt it will change a single vote.

After pounding away on the email issue all day, every day for a year, Donald Trump has exhausted the issue. We all have hardened scar tissue on our nerve endings regarding this matter.

A Clinton win is a done deal. At least the stock market thinks so. Notice how the health care and energy sectors got hammered on Friday while the general market selloff was over in minutes.

These politically sensitive, high beta sectors would be rocketing if investors thought The Donald was about to occupy the White House.

Listen to what the stock market is telling you.

Still, all are bracing for the newest revelations about both candidates in the final week before the election.

The Clinton bombshell is now out. What will the next Trump bombshell look like?

Perish the thought.

With the national election decided, look for Californians to focus on local initiatives.

Look for the Golden State to cap drug prices, legalize marijuana, approve massive new school bond issues, permanently raise taxes on the ultra wealthy, add a $2 a pack tax on cigarettes, require condoms for porn stars, introduce a one cent an ounce tax on sodas, allow early parole for non violent offenders, ban the death penalty, require background checks for ammunition purchases, prohibit supermarket plastic bags and approve world peace (I made the last one up).

The state-issued voter guide is a positively wrist breaking 224 pages (I read the whole thing).

With all the excitement of the technology earnings now behind us, the coming week is likely to be more sedentary on the reporting front.

Although no one knows it, we have a Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting this week where they are expected to do exactly nothing. The fireworks aren?t expected to happen until mid December.

And, yikes, we get the Nonfarm Payroll Report on Friday.

Traders will certainly be earning their crust of bread this week.

Monday, October 31st at 9:45 AM EST, we get the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index.

That night, millions of trick or treaters will be canvassing the country foraging for free candy.

On Tuesday, November 1st at 9:00 AM EST we get a new update on the ISM Manufacturing Index. Given last week?s sharp GDP upgrade, the report should be interesting, to say the least.

On Wednesday, November 2nd at 2:00 PM EST, the Federal Reserve announces its interest rate decision. We should also pay careful attention to the EIA Petroleum Status Report, due out at 10:30 AM EST.

Thursday, November 3rd, we learn the PMI Services Index at 9:45 AM EST, following the Weekly Jobless Claims at 8:30 AM.

On Friday, November 4th at 8:30 AM EST we get the October Nonfarm Payroll Report. I am expecting a print around 200,000, but we could run hotter, given the recent GDP report.

1:00 PM delivers us the Baker Hughes Rig Count. Worryingly for oil producers, the trend has been up for the past 17 out of 18 weeks.

Good luck going door to door tonight. You never know who you might run into.

john-with-daughters-trick-or-treating

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/John-with-Daughters-Trick-or-Treating-e1477800691885.jpg 400 299 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2016-10-31 01:08:242016-10-31 01:08:24Market Outlook for the Week of October 31st
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Please Search My Free Data Base

Diary, Newsletter

The original purpose of this letter was to build a database of ideas to draw on in the management of my hedge fund.

When a certain trade comes into play, I merely type the symbol, name, currency, or commodity into the search box, and the entire fundamental argument in favor of that position pops up.

You can do the same. Just type anything into the search box found on the Home Page in the upper right hand side, and a cornucopia of data, charts, and opinions will appear.

The data base goes back to February, 2008, totaling 3 million words, or five times the length of Tolstoy?s?War and Peace. Watching the traffic over time, I can tell you how the database is being used:

1) Small hedge funds want to see what the large hedge funds are doing.

2) Large hedge funds look to see what they have missed which is usually nothing.

3) Midwestern advisors to find out what is happening in New York and Chicago.

4) American investors to find out if there are any opportunities overseas (there always are).

5) Foreign investors to find out what?the hell?is happening in the US (about 1,000 inquiries a day come in through Google?s translation software).

6) Specialist traders in stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, and precious metals looking for cross market insights which will give them a trading advantage with their own book.

7) High net worth individuals managing their own portfolios so they don?t get screwed on management fees.

8) Low net worth individuals, students, and the military looking to expand their knowledge of financial markets (lots of free online time in the Navy).

9) People at the Treasury and the Fed trying to find out what the private sector is doing.

10) Staff at the SEC and the CFTC to see if there is anything new they should be regulating.

11) More staff at the Congress and the Senate looking for new hot button issues to distort and obfuscate.

12) Yet, even more staff in Obama?s office gauging his popularity and the reception of his policies.

13) As far as I know, no justices at the Supreme Court read my letter. They?re all closet indexers.

14) Potential investors/subscribers attempting to ascertain if I have the slightest idea what I am talking about.

15) Me trying to remember trades which I recommended long ago, but have forgotten.

16) Me looking for trades that worked so I can say ?I told you so.?

It?s there, it?s free, so please use it.

John at Kentucky Derby

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/John-at-Kentucky-Derby.jpg 400 367 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2016-10-31 01:06:072016-10-31 01:06:07Please Search My Free Data Base
DougD

October 31, 2016 - Quote of the Day

Diary, Newsletter, Quote of the Day

?Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry, and open mindedness.? said the 19th century American humorist, Mark Twain.

john-in-hovel

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/John-in-Hovel-e1477796394788.jpg 213 300 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2016-10-31 01:05:322016-10-31 01:05:32October 31, 2016 - Quote of the Day
DougD

October 28, 2016 - Pro Tips A.M.

MDT Alert

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2016-10-28 01:09:092016-10-28 01:09:09October 28, 2016 - Pro Tips A.M.
DougD

October 28, 2016

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Market Comments
October 28, 2016
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(HERE COMES THE NEXT BIG SHORT),
(USO), (TSLA), (TM), (GM), (NSANY),
(A COW BASED ECONOMICS LESSON),
(YOU ARE INVITED TO JOIN THE GREAT JOHN THOMAS-HARRY DENT DEBATE)

United States Oil (USO)
Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA)
Toyota Motor Corporation (TM)
General Motors Company (GM)
Nissan Motor Co. Ltd. (NSANY)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2016-10-28 01:09:032016-10-28 01:09:03October 28, 2016
DougD

Here Comes The Next ?Big Short?

Diary, Newsletter

Remembers the billions of dollars that were made by clever hedge funds selling short bond derivatives at the peak of the housing market?

A similar opportunity may be presenting itself.

As electric cars go mainstream, a number of unintended consequences may be triggered.

One big one that no one is thinking about is that a good portion of the global corporate bond market may be demolished.

Some one-quarter of the $14.7 trillion in issues outstanding have been issued by the energy industry.

Fitch, the ratings agency, has just downgraded many of these bonds.

They cite the threat posed by electric cars, which could lead to ?an investor death spiral? in the energy industry.

Let me give you a few simple numbers.

When I bought my first Nissan (NSANY) Leaf 6 ? years ago, the battery cost $1,000 per kWh.

Two years later, Tesla (TSLA) dropped the price to $300/kWh with their sleek Model S.

This year, General Motors (GM) shaved that figure to $125/kWh with their all electric Bolt.

That is an 87.5% cost reduction in only 6 ? years.

The non-subsidized breakeven point for car batteries is widely considered to be around $100/kWh, a mere 20% lower. At that point, electric cars take over the world.

There are only about 1.2 million electric cars on the road today out of a global fleet of 1 billion.

However, worldwide production this year is expected to exceed 500,000 which is equivalent to 2.85% of the total US car market.

Tesla alone is planning to ramp production up from 80,000 vehicles in 2016 to 500,000 by 2020. They are now running at a 100,000-unit per year annual rate.

These are still small numbers. But here is the scary thing about the energy market.

Sometimes it takes only a 1% change in the supply/demand picture to trigger a 50% collapse in prices.

Energy pays no interest or dividend, and is expensive, dangerous, and toxic to store. No one wants to get stuck with excess supply.

Look no further than the contango in the oil futures market, where prices for one-year delivery are 10% more expensive than the front-month futures contract. Oil for immediate delivery is trading at an enormous discount.

Another problem is that all of the world?s strategic petroleum reserves are full, with the US and China holding the largest reserves. Over 200 tankers worldwide are storing crude, awaiting an improvement in prices that may never come.

And then we have the lesson of the past five years, when oil prices crashed by 83.3% from a 2008 peak of $149.50. Bondholders shuddered.

A sudden surge in electric car production could produce a tipping point that brings a cataclysmic decline in oil prices. Automobiles currently account for 50% of US oil consumption.

And what if we then go into another recession? It could make this year?s $25.50 low in Texas tea look spectacularly expensive.

If you have any doubts about the disruptive possibilities of electric cars, go visit the Tesla factory in Fremont, California which I have been doing for five years.

When I first went there in 2011, the assembly line occupied just a small corner of the cavernous 500,000 square foot facility, the site of a former General Motors/Toyota (TM) joint venture. You could almost hear a pin drop.

I went there last week to check on my Model X order and the plant was a beehive of activity. There were multiple assembly lines. Shiny aluminum parts were stacked to the 30-foot ceiling.

Robots silently delivered parts from one side of the factory to the other. A couple of times I almost got run over by emergency repairmen on bicycles rushing to fix some vital part of the process.

You could spend the day listing other unintended consequences of electric cars.

They use 80% fewer parts than conventional cars, so you can kiss the auto parts industry goodbye.

They require no maintenance, so one million car repairmen across the country will lose their jobs.

Self-driving technology will wipe out the auto insurance business, since accidents will rarely happen. It will also cut hospital emergency room visits by half, chopping down health care costs.

The Tesla assembly line uses less than half the workers of equivalent Detroit lines, so the company is a net job destroyer.

Where will all the jobless go?

I could go on and on.

Bottom line: approximately half of the entire US economy will, in some way or another, be dramatically affected by electric cars.

On my way out of the Tesla factory, we passed by the Founders? Wall. This is where the buyers of the first 100 Model S-1?s signed their names with a magic marker, hoping for the best.

After all, we didn?t know if the $110,000 ultra modern vehicle would work.

There was ?JOHN THOMAS? in big bold letters.

I smiled, didn?t say a word, walked out, jumped in my Tesla S-1 and drove home.
wtictmgmtsla
John with Tesla2

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/John-with-Tesla2-e1463513139489.jpg 282 400 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2016-10-28 01:08:342016-10-28 01:08:34Here Comes The Next ?Big Short?
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Legal Disclaimer

There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.

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