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MHFTR

March 21, 2018

Diary, Newsletter

Global Market Comments
March 21, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(THE VALUE CASE FOR FACEBOOK), (FB), (AAPL),
(WHAT ALMONDS SAY ABOUT THE GLOBAL ECONOMY)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2018-03-21 01:08:132018-03-21 01:08:13March 21, 2018
MHFTR

The Value Case for Facebook

Diary, Newsletter, Research

When it rains, it pours.

That is how Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg must feel after suffering two black swans in two days.

First came the disclosures that a client, Cambridge Analytica, used the information from 50 million Facebook users to help the Russians influence the 2016 presidential election.

Today, we learned that the company is being investigated by the Federal Trade Commission for failure to keep customer information private.

As a result, the company has lost all of its 2018 year-to-date stock performance, and is now taking a big bite out of 2017.

The question now arises, what should you do about all of this as the educated investor?

Facebook is one of the most widely owned companies in the world, right after Apple (AAPL). It often is the largest single position of many major institutional investors. And there isn't one that isn't salivating at adding to its position at fire-sale prices.

For the first time in ages, Facebook is now selling at a screaming discount to the main market, with a PE multiple of only 16.5X at today's low, compared to 19X, and 14.5X if you strip out cash on the balance sheet. Facebook has in effect become another Apple (AAPL) in valuation terms.

Fundamentals have not changed. Some 66% of advertisers say they will increase their spend over the next year.

Regulatory fear is overdone, and it is difficult to imagine in what form that such regulation would take. What, an (FB) friend tax on your account? I would go broke.

If anything, more regulation could be a net positive for (FB), as it creates a deeper moat with which it can protect and grow its business. For more depth on this topic please read today's issue of the Mad Hedge Technology Letter.

The barriers to entry for new competitors, already huge, are about to become insurmountable.

The worst case is that founder Mark Zuckerberg may have to undergo an unpleasant appearance in front of the technophobes in congress.

The company is growing at a compound 30% annual rate and is far and away the dominant player in a deeply moated space. In other words, it is still a company whose shares you should die for.

We'll know for sure when the company gives its Q1, 2018 earnings report after the market close on May 2.

In Q4, 2017 it announced an earnings per share of $2.21, a beat of 26% over analyst expectations. Revenues rose by an eye-popping 47.2% to $12.97 billion for the quarter YOY, a beat of $420 million.

Full year 2017 free cash flow came to $17 billion. Q4 operating income came to $7.4 billion representing a 53% profit margin.

Some 89% of the company's ad revenues came through mobile phones.

There are now 2.1 billion people using Facebook, and 1.1 billion on a daily basis. Some 700 million come to the site daily to buy and sell things through Facebook market.

Its WhatsApp subsidiary has 1.5 billion users who transmit 60 billion messages a day.

Its Oculus Rift entry in the virtual reality gaming space, to which my own kids are hopelessly addicted, is the front-runner in the field.

You might want to wait for the smoke to clear and the dust to settle. However, right here right now at $162 a share it would be perfect for your long-term "buy and forget" portfolio, not only for you and your kids, but for your grandkids as well.

 

I'm Willing to Bet on the Zuk

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/Zuckerberg-1-e1521582175694.jpg 400 400 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2018-03-21 01:07:312018-03-21 01:07:31The Value Case for Facebook
MHFTR

March 21, 2018

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
March 21, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(HOW THE FANGS WILL MAKE A KILLING ON NEW GOVERNMENT REGULATION)

(FB), (GOOGL), (BIDU), (BABA)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2018-03-21 01:06:132018-03-21 01:06:13March 21, 2018
MHFTR

What Almonds Say About the Global Economy

Diary, Newsletter, Research

Yes, that's right, you read it correctly, almonds.

By now, many of you have figured out that I like calling my paid subscribers to find out how they find the service. I always ask for suggestions for improvements. Then I ask what they do besides trade the markets.

I get an amazing array of answers. One reader flew helicopters in Alaska to inspect oil pipelines, executing trades on his cell phone in between flights. Another ran a Russian hedge fund in Moscow.

The sheep farmer in Australia relied on me as his connection with the rest of the world. The family office in Spain valued my American view of the world.

Then I called a subscriber in Modesto, Calif., who said he was in the almond business.

My interest piqued, so I proceeded to grill him. And with that, I obtained a fascinating insight into an obscure corner of the global economy.

If you thought marijuana, estimated by the Drug Enforcement Administration to be at $6 billion a year, was California's largest cash crop, you'd be wrong.

Grapes used to be our largest legal crop, at $5 billion a year. But almonds will beat all this year, possibly reaching as high at $8 billion.

You can blame the six-year California drought, which was then followed by a year of flooding of biblical proportions.

This has driven the price of almonds from $1/pound a few years ago to as much as $4/pound today.

The price spike has ignited fierce water wars across the state, with increasingly desperate farmers battling over an ever-diminishing commodity.

Those located in the eastern half of the Central Valley (which you will remember from your freshman English class in The Grapes of Wrath) are sitting pretty.

They have long-term contracts to buy water from federal public works projects at subsidized prices that date back to the Great Depression.

These rights can make or break the value of a farm, and are passed down from one generation to the next.

The eastern half of the valley is another story. When construction of Interstate 5 was completed in 1979, most of it was still barren desert, a rain shadow effect of the state's coastal mountain range.

Only the oil industry was there in force, especially around the Elk Hills oil find (watch the Daniel Day Lewis movie, There Will Be Blood). I know because my grandfather worked there for Standard Oil during the 1920s.

So when large-scale farming developed there during the 80s, they had to buy water on the spot market.

The problem is that during a drought, there is very little water for sale. So parched farmers have turned to drilling to irrigate their fields.

This has led to an even bigger headache. In the 19th century, you could drill 100 feet and find all the water you wanted.

Today, they have to go as deep as 1,200 feet, and even these ancient deep aquifers are drying up. And that's assuming you have the $1 million it costs to drill such a well.

Indeed, the elevation of the Central Valley has fallen by 10 feet over the past century because of the underground water that has been withdrawn so far.

Destruction of rural buildings through catastrophic subsidence is becoming widespread.

The only alternative is to let your crops die. You see this in abundance while making the drive from San Francisco to Los Angeles, withered trees frozen in tortured and grotesque death throes.

Also plentiful are irate billboards attacking the government for depriving local farmers of their cheap water.

Even if you have plenty of water, it is still not smooth sailing in the almond business these days.

China is the world's largest buyer of almonds. The demand there has been so great that the Chinese have become major buyers of almond farms throughout the state, at premium prices.

However, the Middle Kingdom's recent anticorruption campaign is starting to take a big bite out of sales.

In years past, individuals would buy dozens of boxes of almond cookies to pass out to friends, customers, employers, government officials and regulators during the Lunar New Year celebrations.

Not so today. The difference has led to the cancellation of a few shiploads of the prized nuts.

My friend kindly invited me to tour his roasting and packaging facilities the next time I was in the neighborhood.

I was left thinking, this really is a global economy that is so integrated that, when a butterfly flaps its wings in Brazil, it causes a typhoon in Japan.

It also is a great example of how information about one asset class can provide insights about all the others.

With that, I opened a fresh bag of healthy unprocessed Nut Up almonds that I picked up at Save Mart and grabbed a fresh handful. I hear they're going to sponsor a NASCAR driver soon to bring healthy food to the hinterlands.

 

 

Another Batch for China

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/almond-farming-e1521581622868.jpg 270 480 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2018-03-21 01:06:032018-03-21 01:06:03What Almonds Say About the Global Economy
MHFTR

How the FANGs Will Make a Killing on New Government Regulation

Tech Letter

What a late Christmas gift!

It's three months late, but I am sure Mark (Zuckerberg) will take it.

The cost of data just spiked thanks to UK-based Cambridge Analytica, and the FANGs are popping bottles of Champagne.

The embedded regulatory premium increased one full magnitude on the news of the data leak, and regulation will certainly be brought forward.

This is fabulous news for the FANGs because they are the ones that benefit from new data regulation because it builds a bigger moat around their businesses.

Sensational claims over third-party data extraction is just the tip of the iceberg. We haven't wrapped our heads around the full extent of Pandora's Box either because the hijacking of data has gone on unabated for years.

Remember, Facebook (FB) is just a "distribution platform."

Years of grabbing market share and dominating business was well worth it because tech regulation will kill off future competition as the lubrication of free-flowing data will be scrutinized adding to costs.

Mark Zuckerberg will pay lip service, noting he didn't know perpetrators would use data in an unscrupulous way, and the world will move on. He might even have to testify in front of various governments and put in some face time. Case closed.

Meanwhile the market doesn't blink an eye, but whispers of tech regulation tears the market to shreds.

The ugly truth is Facebook does not care what users post on its distribution data platform as long as users post, gifting free data on themselves. Herd-like advertisers have no choice but to comply and pony up for potential clicks driving business.

The real news is in the ramifications to the FANGs, Big Data and data regulation.

Tech companies and corporate America make executive decisions based on data, and without it operations are run less efficiently and with less precision.

Big data cuts across every single big trend in tech. The unearthing of bad actors only highlights the desire for big data and the widespread monetizing opportunities of data extraction.

The volume of data is integral to the accuracy of the applications. Minimal degree of error yields higher quality A.I. technology, translating into better performance.

The data economy produces zettabytes of data now, up from exabytes, and before that, up from gigabytes.

The technological development expected by 2020 is mind-numbing. Autonomous cars will generate 4 terabytes of data per day per car. There will be 50 billion connected smart devices in operation.

Smartphones will consume more than 1 exabyte of data each day. Oh, did I mention the 43 million robots in the workplace and all the data they will produce?

The White House has missed the boat on regulation, hence the wrist slapping.

Which FANGs are most susceptible to regulation?

The FANGs that are closely aligned with the proliferation of data - Facebook and Google (GOOGL).

These two FANGs are in the firing line and disastrous headlines exacerbate an already tense situation in the short term. They will be fine long term.

Facebook and Google don't charge their customers to circumvent the antitrust dilemma. The result is charging through a back-door method of building up user data for the means of hyper-targeting advertisements.

In general, the aftermath may lead to payment of user data - but not yet, not even close.

Until harvesting data is illegal, FANGs should be bought on the dip after the brouhaha settles down and the stock finds solid support levels.

This is hands down the best entry point into Facebook in 2018.

Big data for implementing business decisions will never go away, but the rules on how to responsibly handle it will. This is where the government is likely to step in and put its stamp on the situation. How these rules are fleshed out is a moot point because either way, Facebook will avoid any direct hits.

Any data costs related to building hyper-targeted user profiles easily will be passed on to advertisers boosting earnings. The beauty of a duopoly is that Facebook can charge more, and advertisers have no choice but to stump up the extra ad cash. Facebook would even be able to pass off the higher ad prices as a function of improved ad tech, which it is the absolute best of breed in the world.

Facebook should want more regulation.

Regulation also is necessary to steward the user-ship of 2.2 billion users. The plan for Facebook is raising revenue per user after digesting the low-hanging fruit. Facebook is perfectly placed to execute, and advertisers will grumble about additional price hikes.

The reality is that American big tech is coddled because of the American fight for technological supremacy against China. It supersedes any data harvesting blip.

The White House needs the FANGs to be powerful enough to counter the emerging threat on the other side of the Pacific. The Chinese BATs (Baidu, Alibaba and Tencent) are right on the heels of the FANGs in a full-out arms race.

Disabling the FANGs would sway the power pendulum overwhelmingly in favor of the Middle Kingdom. Washington cannot destroy the FANGs because it would give Chairman Xi the green light to dominate future technology and, in turn, the future of mankind. Trump would never let that happen, and he likes his social media too much.

Buy Facebook after the smoke clears and the dust settles.

 

 

 

__________________________________________________________________________________________________

Quote of the Day

"I've expressed how upset I am that the Russians tried to use our tools to sow distrust. What they did is wrong and we are not going to stand for it." - Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2018-03-21 01:05:252019-04-02 16:51:45How the FANGs Will Make a Killing on New Government Regulation
MHFTR

March 21, 2018 - Quote of the Day Copy

Diary, Newsletter, Quote of the Day

"Let us endeavor so to live that when we die, even the undertaker will be sorry," said the 19th century American humorist Mark Twain.

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/Mark-Twain-e1489866483997.jpg 195 300 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2018-03-21 01:05:142018-03-21 01:05:14March 21, 2018 - Quote of the Day Copy
Arthur Henry

Trade Alert - (TLT) March 20, 2018 TAKE PROFITS

Trade Alert

When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Arthur Henry https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Arthur Henry2018-03-20 10:50:132018-03-20 10:50:13Trade Alert - (TLT) March 20, 2018 TAKE PROFITS
DougD

March 20, 2018 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.

MDT Alert

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2018-03-20 08:39:292018-03-20 08:39:29March 20, 2018 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.
MHFTR

March 20, 2018

Diary, Newsletter

Global Market Comments
March 20, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(AMERICA'S NATIVE INDIAN ECONOMY)

?
https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2018-03-20 01:07:392018-03-20 01:07:39March 20, 2018
MHFTR

March 20, 2018

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
March 20, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(THE BATTLE FOR CONTROL OF CRISPR TECHNOLOGY IS OVER AND YOU WON!)
(EDIT), (NTLA), (CRSP), (XLV),

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2018-03-20 01:06:452018-03-20 01:06:45March 20, 2018
Page 6 of 15«‹45678›»

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There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.

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