Global Market Comments
September 12, 2018
Fiat Lux
THE FUTURE OF AI ISSUE
Featured Trade:
(THE NEW AI BOOK THAT INVESTORS ARE SCRAMBLING FOR),
(GOOG), (FB), (AMZN), MSFT), (BABA), (BIDU),
(TENCENT), (TSLA), (NVDA), (AMD), (MU), (LRCX)
Global Market Comments
September 12, 2018
Fiat Lux
THE FUTURE OF AI ISSUE
Featured Trade:
(THE NEW AI BOOK THAT INVESTORS ARE SCRAMBLING FOR),
(GOOG), (FB), (AMZN), MSFT), (BABA), (BIDU),
(TENCENT), (TSLA), (NVDA), (AMD), (MU), (LRCX)
Mad Hedge Technology Letter
September 12, 2018
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(HOW TO PLAY “SOFTWARE AS A SERVICE”),
(AMZN), (IBM), (ADBE), (CRM), (BABA), (CSCO), (SAP), (ORCL), (GOOGL)
“I’m prepared to eat our children because if I don’t, somebody else will,” said Sir Martin Sorrell about the extreme competitiveness of online marketing.
If you have read any of our content in the first year of the Mad Hedge Technology Letter, the content is distinctly bullish technology stocks.
A fundamental driver propelling this cogent argument is the dominant Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) industry booming inside the confines of Silicon Valley.
If you want to boil down your tech investment thesis to one indispensable rule – only invest in tech companies that carve out prominent SaaS businesses.
If you stick with this nostrum, you will be delivered profits in spades.
We have recently taken in a swarm of new tech letter subscribers and understanding the panacea that is SaaS will entrench your portfolio in a glorious position to reap untold profits.
What is SaaS?
SaaS is a distribution method in which software is diffused to paid subscribers, usually on an annual, reoccurring payment plan, and the software is remotely stored on a centralized cloud platform awaiting use.
Unsurprisingly, SaaS remains the most lucrative segment of the cloud market.
In 2017, the tech industry did $60.2 billion in annual SaaS sales, that number is poised to explode to $117.1 billion in 2021.
The near doubling of sales underscores the robust nature of these tech firms setting up businesses of this ilk, and the positive effects dripping down to the bottom line.
Simply put, no SaaS business, no reason to invest.
SaaS isn’t the only cloud revenue companies can carve out. Tech firms also offer platform-as-a-service (PaaS) and infrastructure-as-a-service (IaaS).
However, SaaS is by far the prominent growth lever in the high-margin cloud industry.
The indomitable presence inside the SaaS industry is Bill Gates’ creation Microsoft (MSFT).
Microsoft leads all companies with a 17% global share of the SaaS market.
The Redmond, Washington, outfit blew past stalwart Salesforce (CRM) nine quarters ago.
Microsoft’s sizzling SaaS business is an oversized contributor to its 45% revenue growth rate, which is head-and-shoulders above the industry average.
Salesforce (CRM), Adobe (ADBE), Oracle (ORCL) and SAP (SAP) fill out the top five largest global SaaS businesses, but it is really a tale of two stories.
Oracle and SAP, which are competing in the same market, are grappling with legacy database businesses and legacy tech, which are punished by investors.
John Dinsdale, a chief analyst at Synergy Research Group, mentioned two outliers of “Cisco (CSCO) and Google too who are making ever-bigger inroads into the SaaS market” leveraging Cisco’s multitude of software assets and Google’s G Suite.
The thing that makes SaaS the x-factor for tech companies is that inevitably every company from every walk of life will adopt this mode of software, giving legs to this distribution model.
Vendors are scrambling to put together some resemblance of a SaaS product together, and this trend is a vital contributor to an industry that is growing 32% YOY worldwide.
Kevin Cochrane, chief marketing officer of SAP Customer Experience lay bare his thoughts about this type of service describing it as the “Golden Age of SaaS.”
Companies are becoming digital first from end to end, explaining the sharp rise in IT professional salaries and rise in quality software products.
As we look around the corner to the IaaS part of the cloud industry, which is growing at around 30% YOY, there is one dominant player, and everybody knows its name.
Amazon (AMZN) is the No. 1 vendor with Microsoft, Alibaba (BABA), Google, and International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) trailing behind.
The top four IaaS players have carved out a total of 73% of the global market ravaging any resemblance of competition.
Amazon is the industry standard with the best record of customer success.
If Amazon branched off into the SaaS industry, it could unlock an additional $100 billion in annual revenue.
A shift into this direction could pad Amazon’s margin’s even more after successfully boosting North American e-commerce margins from 2.4% to 4.7%.
It’s not entirely inconceivable that Amazon could break the $2 trillion valuation in three to five years, as its revved up digital ad business registered growth of 129% YOY last quarter.
Microsoft seized the runner-up position in the IaaS market to Amazon by growing 98% YOY with sales eclipsing $3.1 billion in 2017.
Wherever you turn, whether toward the cloud business or gaming, investors can find Microsoft making sales.
Microsoft has been a favorite of the Mad Hedge Technology Letter and it’s hard pressed to find a better public tech company in operation now.
The SaaS industry is not a one-size-fits-all proposition.
Thus, there is abundant room for niche offerings that quench companies’ demand for specific services.
This is the reason why cloud companies have participated in a non-stop buying binge of smaller companies that fit their needs.
Microsoft purchased developer favorite GitHub for $7.5 billion earlier this year, and similar examples are scattered all over the tech ecosphere.
Artificial Intelligence (AI) will be the kicker that powers SaaS performance to new heights because incorporating this groundbreaking technology will enhance functionality and, in return, raise profits for all involved.
The scalability of SaaS products has allowed companies to offer software for affordable prices allowing the smallest of firms to adopt a digital-first strategy.
This software connects with other software seamlessly integrating an array of productive apps that help teams overperform and overdeliver.
In the American workplace, 73% of companies will be exclusively using SaaS to function by 2020.
American companies are using 16 apps on average per day, a 33% jump in the number of apps they were using just two years ago.
The migration to mobile has swallowed up SaaS products as well with more mobile-specific software rolling out to mobile devices.
The meteoric rise of SaaS offerings has cut IT security budgets substantially as security has been delegated to the cloud instead of in expensive in-house security teams.
No longer do tech firms need to beef up guarding their own gates.
Protection is provided on a centralized cloud with a third-party company ensuring safety.
This development has helped a new industry rise – cloud security.
Whether people realize it or not, the SaaS industry is here to stay and will become more prevalent in every industry going forward.
This is incredibly bullish for companies that sell SaaS products as revenue will continue to rise.
________________________________________________________________________________________________
Quote of the Day
“Growth and comfort do not coexist,” – said CEO of IBM Ginni Rometty.
Mad Hedge Hot Tips
September 11, 2018
Fiat Lux
The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)
1) Stocks Open Down, on what will be a muted day on 9/11 remembrances. I can’t believe it’s been 17 years. The bloom is coming off the rose as trade wars overhang risk taking. Keep those shorts! Click here.
2) Hedge Fun Guru Ray Dalio Says It’s Time to Go Defensive. The Bridgewater founder also thinks we’re in the seventh inning of the economic recovery. The next bear market won’t be as bad as the last, but the politics could be worse. Sees parallels with the 1935-39 drawdown, when income tax rates were raised to 90% and the rich were vilified for the next 20 years. I’m keeping my shorts. Click here.
3) JOLTS Report Shows 6.93 Million Job Openings in July, a new all-time high. This is what an overheating economy looks like. It’s just a matter of time before we start seeing strikes for high wages. Click here.
4) Small Business Optimism Hits an All-Time High in August, up 0.9 points to 108.8. That’s a 35-year high. Super bullish small businesses are another topping indicator. Click here.
5) Tesla’s (TSLA) Battery Business is Booming, but nobody knows it because of all the hoopla over Elon Musk. The stock is still uninvestable as it hits a new low for the year. Click here.
Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:
(A NOTE ON ASSIGNED OPTIONS,
OR OPTIONS CALLED AWAY), (MSFT),
(TEN MORE REASONS WHY BONDS WON’T CRASH),
(TLT), (TBT), (ELD), (MUB),
(IS IT TIME TO PICK UP THE SLACK?),
SLACK WORKSPACE APP
While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more
Global Market Comments
September 11, 2018
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(A NOTE ON ASSIGNED OPTIONS,
OR OPTIONS CALLED AWAY), (MSFT),
(TEN MORE REASONS WHY BONDS WON’T CRASH),
(TLT), (TBT), (ELD), (MUB)
Mad Hedge Technology Letter
September 11, 2018
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(IS IT TIME TO PICK UP THE SLACK?),
SLACK WORKSPACE APP
Being a stone’s throw away from the pulse of Silicon Valley, I have been showered with acute insights to which I otherwise would be oblivious.
This finely developed acumen is vital to keep my head above water and offer insights unfounded in any other newsletter.
The margins of victory and failure are becoming finer with each passing day, and that goes tenfold for the hyper-cutthroat trading world where each investor fights daily for his crust of bread.
The same thin margins apply for the tech industry whose prodigious march to profits has dwarfed any other industry.
Its far-reaching effects has brought forth social change unparallel to any other time in history.
The Mad Hedge Technology Letter has chronicled the messenger platforms rolled out by public companies such as Facebook and Snapchat, and their lust for profit extraction from every corner of the globe.
But there is another war going on in one nearby corner outside of our social lives I have yet to touch upon that will have profound consequences.
Enter the office.
The battle for hegemony in the workplace to evangelize a supreme workplace app is a big deal.
The office is where most semi-sober, semi-sane adults make a living, and where they allocate the lion’s share of sunlight hours before they mosey on home.
Slack, a workspace messenger app, has become the dominant way to communicate with professionals using collaborative messaging services, and offering integration with all legitimate apps that workers leverage to get work done.
After another round of fundraising, the company is now valued at more than $7 billion.
The $7.1 billion price tag is $2 billion more than the price only last September when Masayoshi Son’s SoftBank dipped its toes in to the tune of $250 million.
Overall, the company has at least 41 investors to its name.
This latest $427 million capital injection was led by Dragoneer Investment Group and General Atlantic, both private equity groups on the forefront of investing in transformative Silicon Valley firms.
Employees’ appetite for enterprise software has mushroomed in recent times, highlighting the dire need for progressive workplace apps liaising with other major productivity applications.
The smooth display interface and ease of use has spawned a monumental rush inside offices to adopt this sleek looking app called Slack.
Competition is coming with Microsoft and Facebook intent on disrupting Slack’s newfound success in the workspace area.
Slack is one of the most popular apps distributed by start-up companies and the numbers back it up.
The company has blown by 8 million daily active users (DAU).
Considering Slack only had 1 million users three years ago makes this feat even more impressive.
Of the 8 million (DAU)s, 3 million are paid subscribers.
Slack follows the freemium model such as other tech firms like Spotify, which lure customers in for free and allow access to its platform.
The free users are the biggest source of converts to its paid reoccurring subscription revenue.
Slack proves its worth by enhancing each product iteration based on diligent analyzation of customer feedback.
A no-brainer for many firms, but you would be surprised how many companies forgo this critical source of data.
Slack streamlines the process of communicating with work buddies.
No matter what industry or specialization with which you grapple, Slack makes it easy to share information over its platform.
In fact, Slack is an acronym for “searchable log of all communication and knowledge.”
Workplace portals can be initiated right away around projects or assignments, and the sense of team bred through this innovative communication channel offers the impetus for coworkers to contribute immediately.
Speed is money in tech land, and Slack gives a reason for coworkers to shun emails all together.
Being a customer-centric workplace app, any malfunctions in the harmony of its operations are met with instant patches of fixes so workers can carry out their time-sensitive tasks.
Other advanced functions aiding workers is the advanced search function allowing users to search for messages that were sent days, weeks, months, or even years ago.
Slack messages accommodate the trend for replying using a hoard of emoji’s, which has become a standard response as the emoji has taken a life of its own in the business world.
It has been found through surveys that emojis are a more effective way to respond to messages that need a blunt opinion.
Millennials are the tech-savvy generation that christened emojis as a normalized way of communication, and they are Slack’s target audience.
Another function allows users to type short code into its interface, triggering the software to remind users of a task and at a specific date and time.
Fastcompany.com smartly described Slack as “a virtual mash-up of the conference room and water cooler, with a pinch of corner office chit-chat.”
Slack is known for uber-productivity.
And if it’s something that a top-quality worker should harness such as referencing, enhancing, prioritizing, delegating, sharing, or creating - the app facilitates these traits seamlessly.
Slack certainly will boost the productivity of your team’s performance once the team gets a hang of its tools.
The emphasis of enterprise collaboration will continue as more work teams band together remotely.
This app perfectly captures functionality and meets the needs from companies where all users are online and live in different time zones.
If Slack continues evolving at its current speed, it could shortly wipe out emails.
Emails are a legacy type of communicative tool for companies, and its outdated interface is ripe for disruption.
Gmail’s disciples must have noticed that the past few iterations of Gmail have looked more and more like Slack, as it steals from other workplace app functions to upgrade its own workplace services.
All of this explains why Slack has been adding 2 million users per year and still has enormous potential for further disruption and growth.
Most early-stage companies are massive cash burners.
Reports from Didi Chuxing, the Chinese ride-sharing firm that bought out Uber in China, exposed the double-edged sword of being an up-and-coming tech firm.
Growth is often put up on a pedestal with profits relegated to the sidelines.
Even though Didi Chuxing is the dominant player in China, the exorbitant subsidies dished out to scarce drivers have devoured cash flow metrics.
Didi Chuxing has lost an astonishing $580 million in the first six months of 2018.
Slack is cash-flow positive.
An extraordinary accomplishment for an industry littered with firms exercising their industry right to spoon feed excuses of indulgent losses until their IPO day.
Even more impressive, Slack is only 5 years old and has already signed up more than 70,000 workgroup teams for its platform.
Slack has avoided even talking about going public, and this is bad news for retail investors hoping to get in on the action.
The carnage that tech firms have faced in front of Congress and in the press have budding tech firms rethinking if it’s worth opening themselves up to such torturous criticism.
Mark Zuckerberg is now the whipping boy on Capitol Hill.
Why risk it when bountiful funds await through venture capitalist coffers chomping at the bit to pay a premium for the latest hot tech company?
Elon Musk’s personal meltdown does not help either.
Sadly, it will be years before Slack chooses to go public - and most likely when the business becomes ex-growth.
Yes, it’s unfair to the average Joe, but life is unfair.
Money talks and as Slack feeds back its fresh capital into energizing its product, the valuation will rise to epic heights along with its DAU numbers.
If your office isn’t using Slack yet, it will soon.
Or…it’s probably not a modern place to work.
To visit its official website and sign up for free, please click here.
________________________________________________________________________________________________
Quote of the Day
“You should learn from your competitor, but never copy. Copy and you die,” – said Alibaba cofounder Jack Ma.
When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more
Legal Disclaimer
There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.