Mad Hedge Technology Letter
July 10, 2019
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(THE LOPSIDED WORLD OF TECH)
(FB), (GOOGL)
Mad Hedge Technology Letter
July 10, 2019
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(THE LOPSIDED WORLD OF TECH)
(FB), (GOOGL)
Is it unfair?
No, technology is afforded higher multiples than other industries and it’s completely justified.
Don’t allow anyone to convince you that tech companies are expensive because there are plausible reasons why they are expensive and will get even more expensive.
Technology sits on its perch as the single best investment opportunity of not only our lifetime but our children’s lifetime as well.
Huge capital investment is pouring into this glorious opportunity from gleaming offices on Wall Street to Sand Hill Road venture capitalists and even the Saudi Royal Family.
What is money not going into?
If you drive around the urban and suburban roads of America, it’s obvious that not much is going into new infrastructure.
America hasn’t even built a new airport for the past 30 years which CEO of JP Morgan loves to remind his followers of.
The sad truth is that capital is spilling over into the technology sector.
Eclipsing anything that you might believe, technology provides the optimal vehicle to innovate and evolve while offering a platform to incite a surge in performance and profitability.
The agent that is being harnessed to innovate and evolve is the software that is being programmed up to help a slew of other sectors.
Even if a sector hasn’t been touched by the tentacles of software innovation, they rarely stay virgin for long.
Much of the incubator stage capital is funnelled into considerable expenditures on research and development by technology companies, but also the capital is the catalyst to a reactionary tale of steroidal growth fueled by a pipeline of innovative products, services, and unique features.
These products and services are then spread through and delivered to ancillary arteries that serve the subset of the broader economy.
The result is a massive tsunami in incremental productivity when high grade software supercharges every business that implements and integrates the software inside the confines of their business structure.
The supercharge effect of software rapidly forces companies to either evolve fast or go extinct, meaning that whole industries are transformed overnight when they get a whiff of what is happening with their competitor.
Computers and hardware used to take up entire warehouses - they were oversized, bloated, and tended to perform poorly at first.
The evolution of hardware has delivered shiny, modern pocket-sized devices packed with potency.
CEOs are able to manage companies of 10,000 employees just on a screen the size of a wallet all harnessed by, you got it - software.
Even more unbelievable is that the concept of technology must outdo itself, upgrading with every iteration in an increasingly short amount of time, or be cannibalized by a competitor in a blink of an eye.
In the survival of the fittest, the tech industry is the alpha male industry of the American economy.
Nobody understands in what form or shape it will manifest itself in just down the road but it will be the 800-pound gorilla in the room.
Even though software is the fulcrum of the tech industry today, it doesn’t mean it will always be that way.
Trends diverge quickly and you can even ask a semiconductor executive facing a bout of weakness stemming from geopolitical one-upmanship.
Semiconductor companies have been dragged into the middle of a hegemonic battle between the two most dominant economies in the world and revenues will degenerate short term.
Key semi products will not be relinquished because the artificial intelligence that complements these high-grade chips will be the crucial element that determines who runs the world once 5G networks are erected.
Taking away the building blocks that facilitates the artificial intelligence will make it more difficult to produce the finished product.
Handheld devices are another product that has been sidelined for the time being because the global market is currently saturated by smartphones and tablets.
Software has been a key theme for the Mad Hedge Technology Letter and there are no signs of abatement for the foreseeable future.
The truth is that the world will not function without software as we know it and the omnipresence of software stems from the need to automate everything from healthcare devices down to autonomous vehicles.
Even better, software can withhold devastating economic capitulation as many of these companies have bought in to the software miracle and is a fixed part of their model that can’t be replaced.
Just the bare bones type of model badly needs sufficient IT functions to survive.
Then consider that cybersecurity is more and more a part of management’s plan to protect the digital fort from the back to front.
Software requires minimal infrastructure and is difficult to protect via patents or copyright to any effective degree signaling that if software isn’t perpetually improving, they are at risk of being disrupted.
The low barriers of entry consequently mean grassroots start-ups with innovative, game-changing products can appear with a wave of a wand.
After-sales support of the software is becoming a critical part of revenue as software is becoming more complex and requires granular consultation to apply the full range of capabilities demanded of it.
Software as a service (SaaS) is the new payment model that has also poured gas onto the revenue flames.
Software programs used to be purchased once for a fixed price.
The exchange of tender resulted in the consumer obtaining CDs that they inserted into a personal computer hard drive then installed on the desktop.
The technology industry shaped up and realized it could not only extract a one-time fee for software services but accrue an annual fee with the promise of timely and prompt upgrades via the cloud.
A win-win situation unfolded.
In some cases, this has allowed the same companies to make 500% more from the same product and deliver higher performance through enhanced functionality by deploying frequent updates.
And yes, the trade war is stealing some of the tech industries mojo, but software stocks will be most insulated.
The long-term trends are still intact and investors must understand these stocks have had incredible run-ups the past few years, not to mention a great first half of 2019 that saw most software stock rise over 30%.
Investors should be patient and advantageous entry points will be served on a platter but also differentiate between good and bad software stocks.
Tickets for the Mad Hedge Lake Tahoe Conference are selling briskly. If you want to obtain a ticket that includes a dinner with John Thomas and Arthur Henry, you better get your order in soon.
The conference date has been set for Friday and Saturday, October 25-26.
Come learn from the greatest trading minds in the markets for a day of discussion about making money in the current challenging conditions.
How much longer can the Fed keep boosting the market?
Will the recession start in 2020, or will we have to wait until 2021, and how soon will the stock market start discounting it?
How will you guarantee your retirement in these tumultuous times?
Will the next bear market be as bad as 2008-2009, or worse? And is it worth selling out everything now?
What will destroy the economy first, rising interest rates, collapsing earnings, a trade war, or all three?
Who will tell you what to buy at the next market bottom?
John Thomas is a 50-year market veteran and is the founder, CEO, and publisher of the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader. John will give you a laser-like focus on the best-performing asset classes, sectors, and individual companies of the coming months, years, and decades. John covers stocks, options, and ETFs. He delivers your one-stop global view.
Arthur Henry is the author of the Mad Hedge Technology Letter. He is a seasoned technology analyst and speaks four Asian languages fluently. He will provide insights into the most important investment sector of our generation.
The event will be held at a five-star resort and casino on the pristine shores of Lake Tahoe in Incline Village, NV, the precise location of which will be emailed to you with your ticket purchase combination.
It will include a full breakfast on arrival, a sit-down lunch, coffee break. The wine served will be from the best Napa Valley vineyards.
Come rub shoulders with some of the savviest individual investors in the business, trade investment ideas, and learn the secrets of the trading masters.
Ticket Prices
Copper Ticket - $699: Saturday conference all day on October 26, with buffet breakfast, lunch, and coffee break, with no accommodations provided
Silver Ticket - $1,399: Two nights of double occupancy accommodation for October 25 & 26, Saturday conference all day with buffet breakfast, lunch and coffee break
Gold Ticket - $1,598: Two nights of double occupancy accommodation for October 25 & 26, Saturday conference all day with buffet breakfast, lunch, and coffee break, and an October 26, 7:00 PM Friday night VIP Dinner with John Thomas
Platinum Ticket - $1,599: Two nights of double occupancy accommodation for October 25 & 26, Saturday conference all day with buffet breakfast, lunch, and coffee break, and an October 27, 7:00 PM Saturday night VIP Dinner with John Thomas
Diamond Ticket - $1,999: Two nights of double occupancy accommodation for October 25 & 26, Saturday conference all day with buffet breakfast, lunch, and coffee break, an October 25, 7:00 PM Friday night VIP Dinner with John Thomas, AND an October 26, 7:00 PM Saturday night VIP Dinner with John Thomas
Schedule of Events
Friday, October 25, 7:00 PM
7:00 PM - Exclusive dinner with John Thomas and Arthur Henry for 12 in a private room at a five-star hotel for gold and diamond ticket holders only
Saturday, October 26, 8:00 AM
8:00 AM - Breakfast for all guests
9:00 AM - Speaker 1: Arthur Henry - Mad Hedge Technology Letter editor Arthur Henry gives the 30,000-foot view on investing in technology stocks
10:00 AM - Speaker 2: TBA
11:00 AM - Speaker 3: John Thomas - An all-asset class global view for the year ahead
12:00 PM - Lunch
1:30 PM - Speaker 4: Arthur Henry - Mad Hedge Technology Letter editor on the five best technology stocks to buy today
2:30 PM - Speaker 5: TBA
3:30 PM - Speaker 6: John Thomas
4:30 Adjourn to the bar with a spectacular Lake Tahoe view
7:00 PM - Exclusive dinner with John Thomas for 12 in a private room at a five-star hotel for Platinum or Diamond ticket holders only
To purchase tickets, click here.
"Traders are very good at looking at the second hand on the clock, but not so good with the hour hand," said Gene Munster of venture capital firm Loup Ventures.
“Our production system was based on knowledge from former Toyota engineers and we've incorporated a Japanese quality control system too.” – Said CEO of Huawei Ren Zhengfei
While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to the six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more
While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to a six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more
Global Market Comments
July 9, 2019
Fiat Lux
SPECIAL OPTIONS TRADING ISSUE
Featured Trade:
(HOW TO FIND A GREAT OPTIONS TRADE)
To the dozens of subscribers in Afghanistan, Somalia, Iraq, and the surrounding ships at sea, thank you for your service!
I think it is very wise to use your free time to read my letter and learn about financial markets in preparation for an entry into the financial services when you muster out.
And if Donald Trump gets his way with a 10% rise in defense spending and a 30% cut in the State Department budget, it looks like there are going to be a lot more of you abroad to take advantage of my services.
Nobody is going to call you a baby killer and shun you, as they did when I returned from Southeast Asia four decades ago. In fact, employers have been given fantastic tax breaks and other incentives to hire you.
I have but one request. No more subscriptions with .mil addresses, please. The Defense Department, the CIA, the NSA, Homeland Security, and the FBI do not look kindly on private newsletters entering the military network, even the investment kind.
If you think civilian spam filters are tough, watch out for the military kind! And no, I promise that there are no secret messages embedded with the stock tips. “BUY” really does mean “BUY.” “Sell” means “Sell” too.
If I did not know the higher ups at these agencies, as well as the Joint Chiefs of Staff, I might be bouncing off the walls in a cell at Guantanamo by now wearing an orange jumpsuit.
It also helps that many of the mid-level officers at these organizations have made a fortune with their meager government retirement funds following my advice. All I can say is that if the Baghdad Stock Exchange ever become liquid, I'm going to own it.
Where would you guess the greatest concentration of readers of The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader is found? New York? Nope. London? Wrong. Chicago? Not even close.
Try a ten-mile radius centered on Langley, Virginia, by a large margin.
The funny thing is, half of the subscribing names coming in are Russian. I haven't quite figured that one out yet.
Did we hire the entire KGB at the end of the cold war? If we did, it was a great move. Those guys were good. That includes you, Yuri.
So keep up the good work, and fight the good fight. But please, only subscribe to my letter with personal Gmail, Yahoo, or Hotmail addresses. That way my life can become a lot more boring.
Oh, and by the way, Langley, you're behind on your bill. Please pay up, pronto, and I don't want to hear whining about any damn budget cuts!
While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to a six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more
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