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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Mad Hedge Hot Tips for March 21, 2019

Hot Tips

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
March 21, 2019
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

 

1) The Fed Eases Again, by cutting short their balance sheet unwind and ending quantitative tightening early. It amounts to two surprise interest rate cuts and is hugely “RISK ON”. New highs in stocks beckon. This is a game changer. Click here.

2) Biogen Blows Up, canceling their phase three trials for the Alzheimer drug Aducanumab. This is the worst-case scenario for a biotech drug and the stock is down a staggering 30%. Some $12 billion in prospective income is down the toilet. Avoid (BIIB) until the dust settles. Click here.

3) Micron Technology Comes in Line, with weak guidance and production cutbacks, but the shares soar anyway. Go figure. Investors really want to get into this stock in the worst way, even though the industry is still in its down cycle. Click here.

4) Europe Fines Google $1.7 Billion, in the third major penalty in three years. Clearly, there’s a “not invented here” mentality going on. It's sofa change to the giant search company. Buy (GOOG) on the dip. Click here.

5) Levi Strauss is a Hit, with the shares soaring 35% from the first day IPO price of $17. It’s interesting that the Haas family is unloading their legacy shares at this point in the economic cycle while still maintaining control of the iconic denim maker. Avoid (LEVI). Click here.
 
Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:

(DIVING BACK INTO THE MOUSE HOUSE),

(DIS),

(THE ALPHABET NO-BRAINER),

(GOOGL)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-03-21 12:11:292019-03-21 12:12:23Mad Hedge Hot Tips for March 21, 2019
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

March 21, 2019 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.

MDT Alert

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to a six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-03-21 09:22:092019-03-21 09:22:09March 21, 2019 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

March 21, 2019

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
March 21, 2019
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(DIVING BACK INTO THE MOUSE HOUSE),
(DIS),

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-03-21 08:07:142019-03-21 07:48:24March 21, 2019
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Diving Back into the Mouse House

Diary, Newsletter

Walt Disney (DIS) shares have just suffered a 6% dive on the news they will buy the assets of 20th Century Fox in one of the largest entertainment takeovers in history. The new combined mega-company will dominate Hollywood and content production in general.

In fact, the new acquisition will enable the company to go from strength, enabling it to become the most powerful media company in well….the universe, to borrow from one of its many franchises.

This gives us a rare entry point to get into. Disney is just about to launch its own streaming service which will allow them to take a generous share of the Netflix and Amazon businesses.

Disney is spending a staggering $12 billion on new content this year. The parks are all packed to the gills. They already launch so many blockbuster movies that they have to be rationed awards at the Oscars.

It really is a company that is firing on all cylinders, as long as its erstwhile CEO Bob Iger doesn’t run for president in 2020.

I am therefore buying the Walt Disney Corp (DIS).

I’ll never forget the first time I met Walt Disney. There he was smiling at the entrance on opening day of the first Disneyland in Anaheim, Calif., in 1955 on Main Street, shaking the hand of every visitor as they came in. My dad sold the company truck trailers and managed to score free tickets for the family.

At 100 degrees on that eventful day, it was so hot that the asphalt streets melted. Most of the drinking rooms and bathrooms didn’t work. And ticket counterfeiters made sure that 100,000 jammed the relatively small park. But we loved it anyway. The bandleader handed me his baton and I was allowed to direct the musicians in the most ill-tempoed fashion possible.

After Disney took a vacation to my home away from home in Zermatt, Switzerland, he decided to build a roller-coaster based on bobsleds running down the Matterhorn on a 1:100 scale. In those days, each ride required its own ticket, and the Matterhorn needed an “E-ticket,” the most expensive. It was the first tubular steel roller coaster ever built.

Walt Disney shares have been on anything but a roller-coaster ride for the past four years. In fact, they have absolutely gone nowhere.

The main reason has been the drain on the company presented by the sports cable channel ESPN. Once the most valuable cable franchise, the company is now suffering on multiple fronts, including the acceleration of cord-cutting, the demise of traditional cable, the move to online streaming, and the demographic abandonment of traditional sports such as football.

However, ESPN’s contribution to Walt Disney earnings is now so small that it is no longer a factor.

In the meantime, a lot has gone right with Walt Disney. The parks are going gangbusters. With two teenage girls in tow, I have hit three in the past two years (Anaheim, Orlando, Paris).

The movie franchise is going from strength to strength. Pixar has Frozen 2 and Toy Story 4 in the pipeline. Look for Lucasfilm to bring out a new trilogy of Star Wars films, even though Solo: A Star Wars Story was a dud. Its online strategy is one of the best in the business. And it’s just a matter of time before they hit us with another princess. How many is it now? Nine?

It is about to expand its presence in media networks with the acquisition of 21st Century Fox (FOX) assets, already its largest source of earnings. It will join the ABC Television Group, the Disney Channel, and the aforementioned ESPN.

It has notified Netflix (NFLX) that it may no longer show Disney films, so it can offer them for sale on its own streaming service. Walt Disney is about to become one of a handful of giant media companies with a near monopoly.

What do you buy in an expensive market? Cheap stuff, especially quality laggards. Walt Disney totally fits the bill.

As for old Walt Disney himself, he died of lung cancer in 1966, just when he was in the planning stages for the Orlando Disney World. All that chain smoking finally got to him. He used to start out every TV show with a non-filter Luck Strike in his hand.

My own grandfather died the same way from the same brand, the one who fought in the trenches of WWI where Euro Disney sits today. It is a small world after all.

Despite that grandfatherly appearance on the Wonderful World of Color weekly TV show, friends tell me he was a complete bastard to work for.

 

 

 

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/Walt-Disney.png 491 368 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-03-21 08:06:072019-07-09 04:00:38Diving Back into the Mouse House
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

March 21, 2019

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
March 21, 2019
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(THE ALPHABET NO-BRAINER)
(GOOGL)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-03-21 07:07:412019-07-10 21:39:15March 21, 2019
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

The Alphabet No-Brainer

Tech Letter

Buy Alphabet (GOOGL).

That is the obvious takeaway from the European Union disciplining Alphabet.

EU regulators levied a $1.7 billion fine because of breaches of anti-trust law.

It’s the third time the company has been caught out over unfair practices, but let's be honest about it, the internet is a dirty game and rife with firms cutting corners wherever they can get an edge.

Google search is incentivized to thwart third-party companies hoping to carve out ad revenue on the back of Google's assets.

I commend the EU for stepping up and scolding these big tech companies when stateside they have been allowed to run riot doing whatever they please.

It's gotten to the point where these companies are larger than governments themselves and hold enough power to crush small countries in its wake.

The pitiful thing about this whole ordeal is that it shows how little sway governments hold on these monster tech companies now.

Not only are they too big to fail, but too big to regulate.

Google will keep doing what it does, raking in ad revenue because of the stranglehold they have on global eyeballs.

So let’s diagnose this for what it is - a slight slap on the wrist.

There will be many more fines down the road, but who cares, Alphabet will just cut them a check.

A fine of $1.7 billion is chump change if you consider they pulled in over $32 billion in digital advertising last quarter alone.

Google was penalized for initially forcing websites to sign exclusivity contracts promising flourishing websites not to work with other search engines.

In 2009, Google upped the ante by paying off these popular third-party websites to not allow alternative search engines to display their website in searches.

Expectedly, these websites lapped up the extra revenue and had no complaints.

The last thing a dominant website wants to do is to irate Google who they are reliant on for the bulk of revenue.  

Protecting your customers and shielding them from outside competition is nothing new.

This sort of business practice has been going on since the beginning of time.

Google has no incentive to change its business model to accommodate EU law because retrospective fines of this paltry amount will not force them to substantially transform their ad business.

Heftier fines could come its way in the EU as the Europeans are intent on tackling digital privacy, but the push hardly disrupts Google and the direction they are headed in.

The Android platform and Google's bundle of apps are monopolies that command 80% of the European market share on consumer devices.

Google claims that it stopped this illegal, underhanded practice in 2016. However, in the bigger scheme of things, Google will, by default, benefit naturally from the strategic position they hold in the tech ecosystem.

Therefore, this convoluted regulatory cat-and-mouse game with the European Commission will continue because at the end of the day, Google's positive network effect becomes stronger with age and assets under its umbrella of services are inclined to possess an advantage over companies that aren't linked with Google in a financially incentivized way.

This issue seeps deeper with Stadia, Google’s new attempt at revolutionizing gaming with native cloud-based gaming.

If Google directly connects with gamers via Google Chrome and is incentivized to push in-house gaming ad revenue through this platform, then why would Google search ever allow outside consumers to be able to find relevant search results about other gaming companies if they aren’t profiting directly.

It's a conflict of interest that Google will find itself knee-deep in.

For your information, Stadia will initially only be available on Google Chrome and on Android devices, you’re out of luck if you use Safari.

And what if a company such as Nintendo wants to post ads on Google Stadia via Google Chrome, can Google just say no because they don’t want to feed the enemy?

Google is on record for saying that it will give companies a fair shot to market different search engines and even give more clout to third-party shopping networks.

But by no means does this mean Google will voluntarily give up their cash cow.

Any change would be ornamental at best, and at the worst, Google would just stonewall the initiative and kick the can down the road eventually hoping the EU fine will be less than the last one.  

For any small company, this would be disastrous, but Google is no peon.

Shares rose on the news of the EU fine as investors cheered from the sidelines that this chapter in Google's penalties and fines ledger is temporarily over.

It's funny to say that a $1.7 billion fine effectively meant Google came away from the situation unscathed, but that is where we are at with this type of company at this point in history.

This year is shaping up to be an overly positive year for Alphabet as they venture into gaming and have an interesting mix of high growth divisions such as YouTube.

They have even started to sell its self-driving sensors through its Waymo division.

I almost feel my spine tingle as I say this, but Google might be the most innovative company of 2019 following in the footsteps of Amazon’s innovative rampage in 2018.

Alphabet can't stay out of the news and being berated for being too dominant in Europe is a problem that many smaller companies wish they could have.

In the short-term, I initiated a bullish call on Google and shares have run up quite significantly since that call.

Wait for a pullback to locate an entry point, but I can't imagine shares going back under $1,000 in 2019 unless there is some type of catastrophic black swan event that roils the broader market.

STAY AWAY FROM MY AD REVENUE!

 

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/google-search.png 447 683 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-03-21 07:06:572019-07-10 21:39:21The Alphabet No-Brainer
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

March 21, 2019 - Quote of the Day

Tech Letter

“Facebook is in a very different place than Apple, Google, Amazon, Samsung, and Microsoft. We are trying to build a community.” – Said Facebook Co-Founder and CEO Mark Zuckerberg

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/Mark-Z.png 314 241 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-03-21 07:05:222019-07-10 21:39:31March 21, 2019 - Quote of the Day
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Trade Alert - (FCX) March 20, 2019 - SELL

Trade Alert

When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Alert-e1457452190575.jpg 135 150 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-03-20 16:12:152019-03-20 16:49:00Trade Alert - (FCX) March 20, 2019 - SELL
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Trade Alert - (DIS) March 20, 2019 - BUY

Trade Alert

When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Alert-e1457452190575.jpg 135 150 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-03-20 12:06:272019-03-20 12:06:27Trade Alert - (DIS) March 20, 2019 - BUY
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Mad Hedge Hot Tips for March 20, 2019

Hot Tips

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
March 20, 2019
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

 

1) It’s All About the Fed Today, which is unlikely to do anything at their 2:00 PM EST announcement. Markets will be frozen until then. How badly is Europe dragging down the US? Click here.

2) CBOE Suspends Bitcoin Futures, due to low volume and weak demand. It could be a fatal blow for the troubled cryptocurrency. Avoid bitcoin and all other cryptos. They’re a Ponzi scheme. Click here.

3) Equity Weightings Hit a 2 ½-Year Low, as professional institutional money managers sell into the rally. They are overweight long defensive REITS and short European stocks. Watch out for the reversal. Click here. (link is to an mp3 file)

4) December Stock Sellers are Now March Buyers. Expect this to lead to a higher high, then a lower low. Volatility is coiling. Don’t forget to sit down when the music stops playing. Click here.

5) Volatility Hits a Six-Month Low, with the $12 handle revisited once again, down from $30. (VIX) could get back to $9 before this is all over. Avoid (VIX), the time decay will kill you.

Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:

(WHO THE GRAND NICARAGUA CANAL HAS WORRIED),

(SCAM OF THE MONTH),

(DON’T PAY UP FOR MONEY-LOSING LYFT),

(LYFT), (UBER), (GRUB), (POSTMATES), (DOORDASH), (GOOGL)

 

Chart of the Day

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-03-20 11:04:592019-03-20 13:24:41Mad Hedge Hot Tips for March 20, 2019
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There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.

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