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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

October 21, 2020

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
October 21, 2020
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(WHY YOU MUST AVOID ALL EV PLAYS EXCEPT TESLA),
(TSLA), (GM)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-10-21 09:04:362020-10-21 09:55:06October 21, 2020
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Why You Must Avoid all EV Plays Except Tesla

Diary, Newsletter, Research


Markets live on fads. Once a certain investment theme takes hold, the imitators start coming out of the woodwork in droves.

In 1989, all of the largest Japanese banks stampeded to issue naked short put options on the Nikkei Average by the billions of dollars when the index was at an all-time high. It then fell by 85%.

I remember signing the paperwork on a $3 billion deal for the Industrial Bank of Japan on behalf of Morgan Stanley. It’s been 31 years, but I’m still waiting for those investors to come after me.

Then there was the peak of the Dotcom Bubble in 2000 and no less that five online pet food delivery companies raised billions. (remember those cute sock puppets?) Every one of them went under.

So, what has been one of the biggest fads of 2020?

That would be electric vehicles.

You no longer have to wear Birkenstocks, grow your hair long, and smoke pot to drive an electric car. They are about to become a major part of the American economy. According to Adam Jonas at Morgan Stanley, EVs account for 1.3% of the total car market today and will grow to 10% by 2025 and 25% by 2030.

I have been involved in Tesla since its earliest days back in 2003. Then it was one rich man’s hobby, with technology that was a reach at best, and unlikely to ever see the light of day as a public company. There it remained for seven years.

Then they brought out the Model S in 2010, which I snapped up as fast as I could, picking up chassis no. 125 at the Fremont factory. My signature is still on the wall there. If it worked this had the potential to be a real car. If it didn’t, I would wind up with $100,000 worth of inert aluminum, steel, silicon, rubber, and copper.

The trials were then only just beginning for Musk. He faced nervous breakdowns, sleeping in factories, and SEC prosecutions. After a decade of abuse, suddenly everything clicked. Total Tesla production soared to over one million units and the shares leaped 150-fold to $500 from their post IPO low of $3.30. That move financed a lot of retirements among my readers.

I remember what Steve Jobs once told me; “Like many overnight successes, this one took decades to pull off.”

Suddenly, making electric cars looked easy. Raising money to finance them looked even easier.

Enter the hoards, which I list below, a roll call of the shameless:

Nikola Badger – Roll out is expected in 2021 and has a hydrogen fuel cell power source that hasn’t a hope in hell of ever becoming economic. As I never tire of explaining to investors, while electric power is digital and scalable, hydrogen is analog and isn’t. Maybe that’s why the stock is down 83% since June. Too many unbelievable promises and no actual functioning model. Gravity was their only actual power source.

Fisker – If at first, you don’t succeed, why not fail again? This had double the number of parts of a conventional international combustion engine. Its chief claim to fame was that it got a free factory from the government in Joe Biden’s home state and the fact that Justin Bieber drives one. More flailing at the wind.

Aspark Owl – A $3.2 niche supercar with appeal to maybe three car collecting Saudi princes.

Bollinger B1 – Is a $125,000 SUV expected from a Michigan startup with only a 200-mile range. Why not pay nearly double the cost of a Tesla Model X and get half the performance?

The Byton M-Byte – Is a $45,000 crossover car from a Chinese start up. China has actually been building electric cars longer than Tesla, but they have a tendency to breakdown or catch on fire. Quality and safety problems have until now kept them out of the US, and probably always will.

Genesis Essentia – A Croatian-based startup with a major investment from South Korea’s Hyundai. It will most likely never get off the drawing board. The last time Croatia built cars was for the Austria Hungarian Empire during WWI.

Rivian R1T – A startup with a reasonably priced truck and up to 400 miles of range that will only make it because they have a 100,000-unit order from the largest shareholder, Amazon (AMZ). It’s perfect for local deliveries.

By now, virtually every major car manufacturer has or is about to roll out its own entry in the electric car race. I list them below, skipping those that are more than two years out over the horizon. Notice the profusion of the letter “e” in the names.

They include the Porsche Taycan, Audi eTron, Jaguar I-Pace, Austin Mini Electric, Fiat 500e, Kia Niro EV, BMW i3, Chevy Bolt EV, Hyundai Kona Electric, and the Hyundai Ioniq Electric, Ford F-150 Electric, Ford Mustang Mach-E, and Nissan Ariya.

Not one of these comes even close to the price/performance and battery density of the Tesla cars. Tesla is a decade ahead of the competition and is accelerating its lead. At best, they will sell a few electric cars to those who are intensely loyal to their brands and lose money doing it.

In the meantime, Tesla hasn’t been sitting on its hands. Elon Musk plans to bring out a $25,000 model in two years that will bar entry to the field any other competitor. It is bringing out its own $250,000 supercar, the Tesla Plaid, which will go zero to 60 MPH in 1.9 seconds and have a 600-mile range. The Tesla Cyber Truck at $40,000 has the specs to take on the enormous US pickup market. Did I mention that the company is on the verge of developing technology that will improve battery performance by a staggering 20-fold?

So Tesla is branching out to suck up every profit in every branch of the entire global auto industry.

And this is what most traders, especially the short sellers, got wrong about Tesla. The data is worth more than the car. The miles driven provide a springboard from which the company can offer very high value-added and profitable services, like autonomous driving. Not even Alphabet (GOOGL) can replicate this.

When I bought my first Tesla more than a decade ago, I knew I was betting on the company. The big risk was that General Motors (GM) would step in with their own cheap electric car and drive Tesla out of business.

In the end (GM) did that, but too little, too late. It’s Chevy Bolt EV didn’t hit the market until the end of 2016. Today, it offers a boring design, lacks autonomous driving, possesses only a 259-mile range for $36,620, and is subject to recall, thanks to recurring battery fires (click here for the link).

The quality is, well, Chevy quality.

This year, Chevy will sell under 20,000 Bolts. Tesla is approaching 500,000. It’s too late to close the barn door after the horse has “bolted,” as GM is earning. Over the past decade, Tesla shares are up 150 times. GM shares are nearly unchanged during the greatest bull market of all times.

It is competing against Teslas that are 20 years from the future, are fully autonomous, goes to street-to -treet autonomous driving next year, and upgrades itself once or twice a month.

Make mine Tesla, please, which will soon become the world’s first trillion dollar car company. Don’t waste your time or money on the others, either as a driver or investor.

 

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/New-Tesla.png 455 647 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-10-21 09:02:372020-10-21 14:40:03Why You Must Avoid all EV Plays Except Tesla
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Trade Alert - (JPM) October 20, 2020 - BUY

Trade Alert

When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Alert-e1457452190575.jpg 135 150 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-10-20 11:23:112020-10-20 11:23:11Trade Alert - (JPM) October 20, 2020 - BUY
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

October 20, 2020

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech & Healthcare Letter
October 20, 2020
Fiat Lux

FEATURED TRADE:

THE MOST FAMOUS CANCER STOCK YOU’VE NEVER HEARD OF
(TRIL), (NVAX), (PFE), (IMMU), (SHOP), (GILD), (ABBV)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-10-20 10:02:132020-12-24 10:19:32October 20, 2020
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

The Most Famous Cancer Stock You’ve Never Heard of

Biotech Letter

Biotechnology stocks have proven time and time again to be excellent growth vehicles for risk-tolerant investors.

Underscoring this claim are companies like COVID-19 vaccine frontrunner Novavax (NVAX), which generated jaw-dropping returns on capital for their investors within an impressively short period.

Now, another biotechnology stock is showing telltale signs of following their footsteps: Trillium Therapeutics (TRIL).

Trillium’s story is a familiar one in the biotechnology industry.

Trading only in the penny stock range back in 2019, the company’s share price practically quadrupled since the start of 2020.

Taking into consideration that this meteoric rise actually happened while COVID-19 was blasting the world to smithereens, it’s hardly surprising that this news didn’t receive much media attention.

Trillium’s shares are currently up by an astounding 1,260% -- and the company still has so much room to grow from here.

For context, Trillium had a market capitalization of $7 million in November 2019. This number skyrocketed to $1.3 billion since its shift to cancer technology.

Although a lot of factors came into play, the key turning point for Trillium was when the company decided to go all-in on its cancer programs.

Ultimately, Trillium’s goal is to challenge chemotherapy.

The move to shutter its lead programs on tumor treatments and instead focus on developing cancer-fighting technology was the gamble of a lifetime for the company.

This gutsy move impressed investors, and Trillium was never the same since then.

Today, Trillium is the No. 1 stock on Canada’s S&P/TSX Composite Index, overtaking its previous leader e-commerce giant Shopify (SHOP) by almost 10-fold.

In the US, Trillium shares rank as the No. 4 best-performing company on the Nasdaq Composite Index.

While its epic stock market rally may have some investors feeling left out, all signs point to further gains in the future even for those who missed the initial boom.

Among the major capitalists of this biotechnology company is giant biopharmaceutical company and COVID-19 vaccine leader Pfizer (PFE), which invested $25 million in Trillium’s common stock.

While this equity stake may seem small in relation to Pfizer’s $212.16 billion market capitalization, this initial show of confidence is hailed as a prelude to an even bigger investment in the future.

So far, the most exciting cancer treatments in Trillium’s pipeline are TTI-621 and TTI-622.

These programs are in the same class of emerging cancer technologies, called CD47-based therapies, that prompted Gilead Sciences’ (GILD) $4.9 billion acquisition of Forty Seven, Inc. in April this year.

Aside from Gilead, AbbVie (ABBV) has also been reported to have invested a huge sum in this technology.

In simplest terms, CD47-based therapies can bypass the “don’t eat me signal” put up by some cancer cells in an effort to evade immune detection.

Thus far, both TTI-621 and TTI-622 have been showing promising results. Trillium recently announced that it will increase the dosage in these programs.

While Trillium leaders have not been specific in terms of being open to an acquisition, their recent statements indicate that they are not completely opposed to one.

It’s either that or a partnership with a company as big or even bigger than Pfizer.

As with all the biotechnology stocks, however, there will always be a risk.

For Trillium, the most evident one is competition.

While it’s true that the company has been recognized as the leader in the CD47 arena, more and more competitors are entering the immuno-oncology space.

Right now, the most obvious rival is Gilead, which added Immunomedics (IMMU) to its arsenal via a $21 billion acquisition deal.

Given the sheer amount of money that Gilead has been spending to practically corner the immuno-oncology market, it’s to be expected that more biopharmaceutical titans will enter the fray.

This is one of the reasons Trillium has been tagged as a prime candidate for a massive acquisition deal soon. So far, Pfizer is considered the most probable suitor.

Despite its astonishing performance this year, Trillium’s market capitalization still remains within the small-cap territory. That’s to be expected since its lead assets are still undergoing trials.

Considering that it is an early-stage biotechnology stock, Trillium does not have much in terms of income.

However, the company does have enough cash to last for a while. At the moment, it has $130 million cash.

With its total expenses of $38.8 million in 2019, I say this could offer the company more than three years of breathing room financially.

But it would be shocking if Trillium’s value won’t enter the large-cap territory (higher than $10 billion) if and when the company’s high-value assets reach the late-stage studies.

The fact that it’s also an attractive acquisition candidate offers incredible incentive to its investors.

Simply put, Trillium’s stock could get as much as 1,000% gain over the coming two to three years, making it an ideal investment for risk-tolerant investors.

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-10-20 10:00:162020-12-24 10:35:48The Most Famous Cancer Stock You’ve Never Heard of
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

October 20, 2020 - MDT Pro Tips

MDT Alert

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to a six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-10-20 09:59:272020-10-20 09:59:27October 20, 2020 - MDT Pro Tips
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

October 20, 2020

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
October 20, 2020
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(WHY SPAC’S ARE A SCAM)
(PSTH), (SPAK)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-10-20 09:04:512020-10-20 09:18:36October 20, 2020
MHFTR

October 20, 2020 - Quote of the Day

Diary, Newsletter, Quote of the Day

“Nobody knew it was August 1982 until it was August 1984,” said Christopher Verrone, head of technical analysis at research boutique Strategas.

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/bull-rider-quote-of-the-day.jpg 225 300 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2020-10-20 09:00:322020-10-20 09:16:45October 20, 2020 - Quote of the Day
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Trade Alert - (SPY) October 19, 2020 - BUY

Trade Alert

When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Alert-e1457452190575.jpg 135 150 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-10-19 12:00:292020-10-19 12:08:58Trade Alert - (SPY) October 19, 2020 - BUY
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

October 19, 2020

Tech Letter



Mad Hedge Technology Letter
October 19, 2020
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(ROLL OUT THE OVERSTOCK.COM PLAYBOOK)
(OSTK), (AMZN)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-10-19 11:04:082020-10-19 12:27:12October 19, 2020
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There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.

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