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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

February 24, 2021 - Quote of the Day

Tech Letter

“Our goal was never to create a better taxi.” – Said CEO of Lyft Logan Green

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/logan-green.png 252 345 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-02-24 11:00:442021-02-24 11:31:40February 24, 2021 - Quote of the Day
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

February 24, 2021

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
February 24, 2021
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(LONG TERM ECONOMIC EFFECTS OF THE CORONA VIRUS),
(ZM), (LOGM), (AMZN), (PYPL), (SQ), CNK), (AMC), (IMAX), (CCL), (RCL), (NCLH), (CVS), (RAD), (WMT)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-02-24 10:04:012021-02-24 10:16:35February 24, 2021
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Long-Term Economic Effects of the Coronavirus

Diary, Newsletter

The world will never be the same again.

Not only is the old world rapidly disappearing before our eyes, the new one is breaking down the front door with alarming speed. In short: the future is happening fast, very fast.

To a large extent, long-term economic trends already in place have been given a turbocharger. Quite simply, you just take out the people. Human contact of any kind will be minimized. I’ll tick off some of the more obvious changes.

All San Francisco Bay Area counties are still living under a “shelter in place” order. All schools have now been closed for a year. In March 2020 the local high school managed to get the first weekend of their annual musical “Titanic” done, but not the second.

All travel is banned except to gain essential necessities. Most bars and restaurants have been closed indefinitely, except for takeout. Some cities are issuing $1,000 fines for failure to wear a mask. The kids have turned into white, pasty zombies after staring at laptops for 12 months.

To say that we are merely fatigued from a yearlong quarantine would be a vast understatement. Climbing the walls is more like it.

As I write this, US Covid-19 deaths have topped a half million and cases have surpassed 28 million. China peaked at 4,000 deaths with four times our population. The difference was leadership issue. China welded the doors of Covid carriers shut. Here said it was a big nothing and would “magically” go away.

The magic didn’t work.

In the meantime, you better get used to your new life. You know that home office of yours you’ve been living in? It is now a permanent affair, as your employer figured out that they can make more money and earn a high stock multiple with you at home.

Besides, they didn’t like you anyway.

Many employees are never coming back, preferring to avoid horrendous commutes, lower costs, and yes, future pandemic viruses. GoToMeeting (LOGM) and Zoom (ZM) are now a permanent aspect of your life.

Commerce will change beyond all recognition. Did you do a lot of shopping on Amazon (AMZN) like I do? Now, you’re really going to pour it on.

Amazon hired a staggering 500,000 new distribution and delivery people in 2020 to handle the surge in business, the most by any organization since WWII. I can’t believe the stock is only at $3,200. It is worth double that, especially if they break up the company.

The epidemic really hammered the mall, where a fatal disease is only a sneeze away. Mall REITs are only just starting to crawl off the floor and may never again reach their old highs, no matter how much they promise to pay you in yield.

And how are you going to pay for that transaction? Guess what one of the most efficient transmitters of disease is? That would be US dollar bills. Something like 50% of all US paper money already tests positive for drugs, according to one Fed study.

Take paper money in change and you are not only getting contact from the salesclerk, but the last dozen people who handled the money. You are crazy now to take change and then not go swimming in Purell afterwards. Personally, I leave it all as a tip.

Contactless payments deal with this nicely (PYPL), (SQ), two of the top-performing stocks since April. People pay by swiping their iPhone wallet, or are simply scanned when they walk in the store, as with some Whole Foods shops owned by Amazon.

Conferences? A thing of the past. All of my public speaking events around the world have been cancelled. Webinars now rule. They offer lower conversion rates but include vastly cheaper costs as well. I can reach more viewers for $1,000 on Zoom than the Money Show could ever attract to the Las Vegas Mandalay Bay for $1 million.

At least I won’t have 18 hours of jet lag to deal with anymore. I’m sure Qantas will miss those first-class ticket purchases and I’ll miss the Champaign.

Entertainment is also morphing beyond all recognition. Streaming is now the order of the day. Disney+ (DIS) was probably the best-timed launch in business history, earning enough to cancel out most of the losses from the closure of the theme parks. Again, this has been a long time coming and the other major movie producers will soon follow suit.

Movie theaters, which have been closed for a year, may also never see their peak business again (CNK), (AMC), (IMAX). The theaters that survive will do so by only accumulating so much debt that they won’t be attractive investments for a decade.

The same is true for cruise lines (CCL), (RCL), (NCLH). But that won’t forestall dead cat bounces that are worth a double in the meantime, as they are coming off of such low levels. No vaccination, no cruise.

Exercise is changing overnight. All gyms and health clubs are now closed, so working out will become a solo exercise far away on a high mountain. I have already been doing this for 30 years, so a piece of cake here.

Friends with yoga classes are now doing them in the living room, streaming their instructors online. The economics of online yoga classes are so compelling, with hundreds attending online classes, that the old model may never come back.

If you are having trouble getting your kids to comply with social distancing requirements, have a family movie night and watch Gwyneth Paltrow and Cate Winslet die in Contagion. It has been applauded by scientists as the most accurate presentation of the kind of out-of-control pandemic which we may now be facing.

It is bone-chilling.

As for me, I have my stockpile of food and will be self-quarantining for the foreseeable future. I am at the top of five lists to get vaccinations, but so far all I have received is a ton of special offers from CVS (CVS), Rite Aid (RAD), and Walmart (WMT)

Stay healthy.

 

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-02-24 10:02:092021-02-24 10:15:26Long-Term Economic Effects of the Coronavirus
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

February 23, 2021

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech & Healthcare Letter
February 23, 2021
Fiat Lux

FEATURED TRADE:

(IS THIS THE YEAR OF BIOTECH UPSTARTS?)
(PFE), (GSK), (MRK), (SNY), (MRNA), (BNTX), (NVAX), (AZN)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-02-23 14:02:072021-02-23 18:54:29February 23, 2021
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Is This the Year of Biotech Upstarts?

Biotech Letter

Vaccines have long been shoved to a sleepy little corner of the biopharmaceutical world, ruled over by a handful of companies that cater to billions of dollars’ worth of demand for vaccines every year, undisturbed by newcomers.

However, the COVID-19 pandemic has made this particular corner of the industry a tad more crowded.

While there’s still no clear picture of how the next stage of the efforts to vaccinate the majority of the human population against COVID-19 will work out, what’s evident is that the dominance of the “big four” publicly-traded vaccine developers will be challenged.

That means the battle for supremacy in the vaccine market will no longer be confined within Pfizer (PFE), GlaxoSmithKline (GSK), Merck (MRK), and Sanofi (SNY).

As we’ve witnessed, the COVID-19 pandemic has provided entry points for new names in the industry, such as Moderna (MRNA), BioNTech (BNTX), and Novavax (NVAX).

By the second half of 2021, Novavax and its partners are targeting to supply 150 million doses of their vaccine, while Moderna says it would be distributing at least 600 million doses this year alone—a number that could reach a billion given the right partners in the future.

Those numbers are on par with global-level vaccine production—with Novavax and Moderna quickly gaining steam and catching up with the big players in the industry. 

For context, Sanofi made 250 million doses of its own flu vaccine for the 2021 flu season.

Given that Novavax also plans to release its own flu vaccine combined with the smaller company’s momentum, Sanofi is looking at a long-term rival in this sector.

Aside from offering these smaller biotechs opportunities for growth in terms of business, the pandemic has fast-tracked the advent of next-generation technologies in the industry.

Both Pfizer and Moderna have been approved to use the pioneering messenger RNA technology to develop their COVID-19 vaccine candidates.

Apart from mRNA technology, a similarly revolutionary approach is being explored by Johnson & Johnson (JNJ): viral vector technology.

Meanwhile, AstraZeneca (AZN) and its partner Oxford University came up with their own viral vector vaccine, which has been approved in Europe.

As for Novavax, this Maryland-based company has decided to use the more conventional approach utilizing a protein subunit vaccine.   

Although the exact size of the COVID-19 market is difficult to predict, it’s safe to say that it will be massive.

In terms of who could eventually get the lion’s share of the market, Pfizer is currently leading at the moment based on the government contracts the company managed to secure.

Pfizer estimates $15 billion in revenue from the COVID-19 vaccine in 2021—a number that’s two and a half times higher than its best-selling drug in 2020.

Moderna projects at least $10 billion in COVID-19 vaccine sales, while Novavax anticipates roughly $3.4 billion this year.

In the future though, there’s strong indication that AstraZeneca and JNJ will be vying for dominance for mass-market contracts. This is primarily because of their one-dose vaccine promise and the convenient storage requirements their candidates offer.

Another massive growth prospect for this vaccine is if the need for yearly boosters sticks around. This market would not only be lucrative for smaller companies like Novavax and Moderna, but even for the bigger vaccine players.

Considering the potential of this market, the current leaders of the COVID-19 vaccine race shouldn’t get too comfortable.

In fact, Sanofi and GlaxoSmithKline have already joined forces to create their own COVID-19 vaccine candidate.

So while Pfizer, Moderna, and AstraZeneca already have their products out the door, other vaccine developers still consider themselves in the running to topple them from their perch.

 

 

 

 

covid-19 vaccine

 

covid-19 vaccine

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-02-23 14:00:512021-03-02 13:44:43Is This the Year of Biotech Upstarts?
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Trade Alert - (TSLA) February 23, 2021 - SELL-STOP LOSS

Trade Alert

When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Alert-e1457452190575.jpg 135 150 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-02-23 11:00:162021-02-23 11:00:16Trade Alert - (TSLA) February 23, 2021 - SELL-STOP LOSS
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

February 23, 2021

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
February 23, 2021
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(THE UNITED STATES OF DEBT),
(TLT), (TBT), ($TNX)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-02-23 10:05:302021-02-23 11:23:13February 23, 2021
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Trade Alert - (MS) February 22, 2021 - EXPIRATION AT MAX PROFIT

Trade Alert

When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Alert-e1457452190575.jpg 135 150 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-02-22 11:58:062021-02-22 12:00:47Trade Alert - (MS) February 22, 2021 - EXPIRATION AT MAX PROFIT
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Trade Alert - (KO) February 22, 2021 - EXPIRATION AT MAX PROFIT

Trade Alert

When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Alert-e1457452190575.jpg 135 150 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-02-22 11:16:002021-02-22 11:16:00Trade Alert - (KO) February 22, 2021 - EXPIRATION AT MAX PROFIT
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

February 22, 2021

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
February 22, 2021
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(AN ATTRACTIVE REAL ESTATE TECH PLAY)
(SPAC), (GHVI)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-02-22 11:05:202021-02-22 16:31:12February 22, 2021
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There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.

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