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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

November 24, 2021

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
November 24, 2021
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(ONE OF THE BEST METAVERSE STOCKS)
(RBLX), (FB)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-11-24 15:04:332021-11-24 16:19:51November 24, 2021
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

One of the Best Metaverse Stocks

Tech Letter

There aren’t that many metaverse stocks out there as of now, but I do feel that is about to change in the next few years.

The same thing happened with cryptocurrencies, and now not only do we have single stocks that offer pure crypto exposure, but we also even have crypto ETFs.

The natural path the metaverse will take is to enter through video gaming because of the ease of transition it will facilitate once the real thing is up and running.

There’s a fit right there because video gaming already possesses the parameters of a world set up for virtual activity; and yes, even though one could call Facebook a “world,” much of that is done through logging onto a webpage.

Populating a webpage is out of date technology and the new internet version 3.0 will be vastly different.

Enter Roblox.

Roblox (RBLX) is what Facebook (FB) would have wanted to already become but spent most of their time developing Instagram — essentially a juiced-up version of Facebook with historical videos and old photos.

That’s old news and old tech.

It won’t cut it as the metaverse guarantees a real-time, on-demand experience in virtual 3D form with humans controlling avatars that guarantees to become a more immersive experience with our 5 senses.

In short, it’s better than opening a web page. A lot better.

Roblox already relies on computer graphics and programmed virtual experiences. And with 49% of users under the age of 13, its demographics are a massive competitive moat because young people embrace new technologies quickly and are more prone to relying on digital tools to facilitate all parts of their lives.

The company is already building on its expertise in creating virtual reality experiences.

Last year, the platform hosted a virtual performance by rapper Lil Nas X that was attended 33 million times.

In November, it announced a collaboration with apparel company Nike to create Nikeland, a virtual space allowing gamers to play Nike-themed games and try on products.

Nike is preparing to hawk its products in the metaverse, which could open up revenue opportunities for platforms like Roblox.

What takes my breath away about Roblox is not the long-term vision of the company, although I have no complaints, but its short-term metrics which are blistering hot as revenue increased 102% over Q3 2020 to $509.3 million.

Find me a company of this type of magnitude expanding by over 100% per quarter and one will soon realize that they are few and far between.

To expound more on their overperformance — Average Daily Active Users (DAUs) were 47.3 million, an increase of 31% year over year

Roblox’s 3Q results highlight its early leadership in the metaverse and continued innovation to capitalize on materially higher long-term monetization opportunities.

Its premium is appropriate given the advertising optionality on top of their existing in-app purchase revenue streams.

Long term, the vision for brands is the exact same as games or play experiences in that I imagine an ecosystem where there are thousands and thousands of these personal hands-on experiences. They are created in concert between brands and possibly creators and developer communities.

It was 16 years ago, games and play experiences were new on Roblox. That has all led us to the beginning stages of the metaverse.

The high-level vision Roblox has is just as print and just as video have been and continue to be interesting ways for brands to interact with their audience.

Let’s look at the example of Vans World, which had over 40 million visits on Roblox, people who visited Vans World were able to wear Vans, go skateboarding, check out the shop, see what new items Vans had for sale.

It’s a deep way for brands to connect with their fans and is essentially the precursor before the metaverse exists but through a video game platform.

The bear case for Roblox until now has involved its primary reliance on a younger demographic, as there have been questions on its post-lockdown growth prospects, in an environment where it could be arduous to match the covid era success. But that is an argument that doesn’t hold water, as the userbase is aging up, with 17-24 year-olds currently the fastest-growing age group.

Strategically, Roblox has positioned itself as the tech firm at the forefront of the metaverse and we all know how first-mover advantage is critical in holding off competition with firms with stronger balance sheets and an army full of agile developers.

Roblox’s inroads with kids spending time in the virtual 3D worlds the gaming platform offers is a firm lock on future cash flow if the company can do its part to develop the metaverse and make sure its revenue becomes sticky.

The stock will grow 10X if the metaverse is a moderate success, and if it is not, investors will only gain about 200% in share appreciation. Not too bad.

 

roblox

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/roblox.png 426 920 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-11-24 15:02:402021-12-04 01:00:01One of the Best Metaverse Stocks
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Quote of the Day - November 24, 2021

Tech Letter

“If the Starbucks secret is a smile when you get your latte... ours is that the Web site adapts to the individual's taste.” – Said Founder and CEO of Netflix Reed Hastings

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/hastings.png 450 300 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-11-24 15:00:442021-11-24 16:19:12Quote of the Day - November 24, 2021
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

November 24, 2021

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
November 24, 2021
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(JOIN ME ON CUNARD’S MS QUEEN VICTORIA
 FOR MY JULY 9, 2022 SEMINAR AT SEA)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-11-24 11:02:172021-11-24 12:04:03November 24, 2021
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

November 23, 2021

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
November 23, 2021
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

 (ALTERNATIVE ALZHEIMER’S DISEASE STOCKS FOR RISK TAKERS)
(BIIB), (SAVA), (AVXL), (BCRX)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-11-23 17:02:132021-11-23 17:41:16November 23, 2021
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Alternative Alzheimer's Disease Stock for Risk-Takers

Biotech Letter

Alzheimer’s disease is one of the most debilitating conditions not only for the patients, but also for their families.

This disease also comes with high costs at $290 billion in annual spending.

More alarmingly, over 6 million people are suffering from Alzheimer’s disease in the United States alone — and this number is expected to keep rising in the coming years.

The growing number of Alzheimer’s patients has resulted in an unmet need in the medical sector.

This demand was estimated to be worth $159 billion to $215 billion in 2010 and is expected to reach $379 billion to $500 billion by 2040.

Considering the burgeoning demand and the lucrative market, it comes as no surprise that several biotechnology and healthcare companies are focusing on coming up with treatments for Alzheimer’s disease.

So far, the most notable names on the list are Biogen (BIIB), Cassava Sciences (SAVA), and Anavex Life Sciences (AVXL).

In terms of market capitalization, Biogen is leaps and bounds away from the two with $37.78 billion. In comparison, Cassava Sciences has $2.13 billion while Anavex has $1.53 billion.

Hence, it’s incredibly tempting to simply declare Biogen as the runaway frontrunner in this contest.

The fact that the company’s Alzheimer’s disease treatment, Aduhelm, received an FDA approval obviously pushes it further ahead as well.

Meanwhile, its closest competitor Cassava Sciences’ Simufilam has yet to commence with its Phase 3 clinical trial.

However, it’s too soon to discount the competition.

Aside from Cassava Sciences’ work on an Alzheimer’s disease treatment, this smaller biotechnology company is also working on another potential blockbuster product that goes hand in hand with Simufilam: SavaDx.

Basically, SavaDx is developed as a blood-based diagnostic test targeting Alzheimer’s disease.

The goal of this product is pretty straightforward: to detect the disease long before its symptoms manifest.

This is a remarkable idea since it could offer potential patients the opportunity to aggressively seek treatment early on when the odds of achieving a successful intervention against Alzheimer’s disease are at their peak.

Long term, SavaDx could be instrumental in segmenting the patient population, which means medical professionals can develop more target-specific treatments to address the needs of every subpopulation more effectively.

Apart from Cassava Sciences, the emergence of Anavex Life Sciences in the neurological disorder space has been embraced by investors as well.

Anavex’s candidate, ANAVEX 2-73, doesn’t concentrate solely on Alzheimer’s disease.

It’s also developed as a potential treatment for Rett syndrome and Parkinson’s Disease Dementia (PDD).

While ANAVEX 2-73 has yet to gain regulatory approval, the positive results from the trials have boosted the company’s share price by 4-fold since 2020.

Considering the slowly crowding space of Alzheimer’s disease, Anavex’s move to pursue Rett Syndrome is an excellent strategy. 

Rett Syndrome is a severe neurological condition that typically affects girls. Most cases are triggered by a gene mutation necessary for the development of brain nerves.

Thus far, the FDA has granted ANAVEX 2-73 with the fast track and orphan drug designation, particularly for its Rett Syndrome indication.

In terms of the market opportunity for Rett Syndrome, ANAVEX 2-73 could rake in $1 billion annually for this indication alone.

At the moment, there are roughly 11,000 Rett Syndrome patients in the US.

Given its status, ANAVEX 2-73’s pricing is expected to follow the same trend as the other rare disease drugs, like BioCryst Pharmaceuticals’ (BCRX) angioedema treatment Orladeyo which is priced at roughly $495,000 annually. 

This puts ANAVEX 2-73 in the $500,000 range each year.

Overall, both Cassava Sciences and Anavex offer compelling cases that make them attractive alternatives for speculative investors looking elsewhere for an Alzheimer’s disease stock.

Meanwhile, buy-and-hold investors might still find Biogen more appealing long term because it has a more diverse pipeline and an approved (albeit controversial) product in Aduhelm.

 

alzheimers

 

alzheimers

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-11-23 17:00:102021-12-04 00:52:30Alternative Alzheimer's Disease Stock for Risk-Takers
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

November 23 2021

Bitcoin Letter

Mad Hedge Bitcoin Letter
November 23, 2021
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(THE STRONG BREADTH OF CRYPTO)
(BTC), (ETH), (ADA), (SOL), (UUP)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-11-23 16:04:152021-11-23 17:17:57November 23 2021
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

The Strong Breadth of Crypto

Bitcoin Letter

The price of Bitcoin (BTC) trending lower to $57,000 is still an extension of the taproot upgrade that saw traders take profits recently.

An 18% pullback has already happened two times earlier this year, but each time Bitcoin came roaring back.

A clear uptrend on the chart means the price of Bitcoin is making higher highs and higher lows reinforcing that Bitcoin is still forcing itself in an upward direction.

So this isn’t that big of a deal in the bigger scheme of things.

Bitcoin, by its very nature, is a highly volatile asset to begin with, so we will see wild upswings and cruel selloffs.

In fact, bullish corrections are indicative of healthy behavior.

Many need to understand that Bitcoin won’t just go up in a straight line even if they want it to.

What’s more interesting is that even though Bitcoin has had a tough time lately, altcoin capital flow has been highly encouraging.

Various altcoins have done well this year with Ethereum (ETH) returning 600%, Solano (SOL) up 9,300%, and Cardano (ADA) up 1,050%, and these are just a few.

Many more have had great degrees of success.

What we are seeing is bitcoin starting to somewhat mature even if it is still in the early innings.

However, many of these altcoins are still at the top of the 1st inning and the lunging growth can be found at the inception of its growth phase.

Broad-based strength of secondary coins was just a pipedream a few years ago, even Bitcoin was a suspicious word, yet the participation of a wider swath of cryptocurrencies means that money which would have been earmarked for Bitcoin a few years ago has now gone into more obscure coins looking for a quick 10X bagger.

I still do believe there will be major buyers in the upper $50,000 levels unless a black swan really tanks crypto.

Another reason for the retracement of Bitcoin is the US dollar (UUP) rally that has taken many by surprise.

Traditional markets indicate potential for a deeper drawdown. The reappointment of Jerome Powell as Chairman of the Federal will get a lot of Fed speak for controlling inflation even if rates won’t go up soon.

The US dollar has been on fire with it strengthening across all currencies and even though Bitcoin is a digital currency, it’s still fighting for the same capital flow as the US dollar.

It’s plausible that Bitcoin traders with big profits, are skimming off profits and reducing their crypto positions, and spinning them into US dollar funds to take advantage of the more than bullish momentum.

The pullbacks in parts of the emerging world have been quite stark with the Turkish Lira falling as much as 15%, even in safer financial waters of Poland, the Polish Zloty is down 5%.

The last bit that could incite negative sentiment for investors is fears that creditors of the defunct Mt Gox exchange could finally liquidate their payments – seven years after the cryptocurrency exchange collapsed.

Trustee Nobuaki Kobayashi confirmed last week that 141,000 BTC ($8 billion) under custody would soon be distributed among those impacted by the Mt Gox fiasco.

Mt Gox coins represent more than 3% of the 4.2m bitcoins in constant circulation. If all of them were to be cashed in at once it would cause the price to crash, at least over the short term.

If these losses are to happen, it wouldn’t translate into a longer-term bear market, but it will deepen the current correction and delay the dip-buying.

I am still encouraged about bitcoin’s direction and the continued spread of adoption has been a massive feather in the cap for this asset.

Major corporations like Tesla and MicroStrategy continue to pour cash reserves into bitcoin, while several countries look set to join El Salvador by introducing bitcoin as legal tender.

I do believe that 2022 will generate a bountiful array of bitcoin and crypto bullish events in a year where stocks will have a hard time replicating the same gains as this year.

 

 

 

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-11-23 16:02:442021-11-23 17:17:44The Strong Breadth of Crypto
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Quote of the Day - November 23, 2021

Bitcoin Letter

"Bitcoin was created to serve a highly political intent, a free and uncensored network where all can participate with equal access." – Said British-Iranian programmer Amir Taaki

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/taaki.png 354 256 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-11-23 16:00:392021-11-23 17:17:34Quote of the Day - November 23, 2021
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

November 23, 2021

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
November 23, 2021
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(TRADING THE KENNEDY ASSASSINATION)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-11-23 10:04:582021-11-23 15:58:25November 23, 2021
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There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.

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