Global Market Comments
November 17, 2021
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(HOW TO HANDLE THE FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 19 OPTIONS EXPIRATION),
(GS), (MS), (BAC), (TLT), (ROM), (BRKB)
Global Market Comments
November 17, 2021
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(HOW TO HANDLE THE FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 19 OPTIONS EXPIRATION),
(GS), (MS), (BAC), (TLT), (ROM), (BRKB)
Happy and newly enriched followers of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader Alert Service have the good fortune to own a record ten deep-in-the-money options positions that expire on Friday, November 19 at the stock market close in two days.
I have to admit that I traded like a Wildman this month, pedal to the metal, and 100% invested. This will take our 2021 year-to-date performance to over 100% for the first time in our 14-year history. I like to think that is the end result of my 53 years of investment in researching trading strategies.
Sometimes, overconfidence works.
It is therefore time to explain to the newbies how to best maximize their profits.
These involve the:
(GS) 11/$330-$350 call spread 10.00%
(GS) 11/$385-$395 call spread 10.00%
(MS) 11/$85-$90 call spread 10.00%
(MS) 11/$95-$98 call spread 10.00%
(BAC) 11/$37-$40 call spread 10.00%
(BAC) 11/$43-$46 call spread 10.00%
(TLT) 11/$150-$153 put spread 10.00%
(ROM) 11/$105-$110 call spread 10.00%
(BRKB) 11/$275-$280 call spread 10.00%
(BRKB) 11/$277.50-$282.50 call spread 10.00%
Provided that we don’t have another 2,000-point move down in the market in the next two days, these positions should expire at their maximum profit points.
So far, so good.
I’ll do the math for you on our deepest in-the-money position, the Goldman Sachs (GS) November 19 $330-$350 vertical bull call spread, which I almost certainly will run into expiration. Your profit can be calculated as follows:
Profit: $20.00 expiration value - $16.50 cost = $3.50 net profit
(6 contracts X 100 contracts per option X $3.50 profit per options)
= $2,100 or 17.65% in 24 trading days.
Many of you have already emailed me asking what to do with these winning positions.
The answer is very simple. You take your left hand, grab your right wrist, pull it behind your neck, and pat yourself on the back for a job well done.
You don’t have to do anything.
Your broker (are they still called that?) will automatically use your long position to cover your short position, canceling out the total holdings.
The entire profit will be credited to your account on Monday morning November 22 and the margin freed up.
Some firms charge you a modest $10 or $15 fee for performing this service.
If you don’t see the cash show up in your account on Monday, get on the blower immediately and make your broker find it.
Although the expiration process is now supposed to be fully automated, occasionally machines do make mistakes. Better to sort out any confusion before losses ensue.
If you want to wimp out and close the position before the expiration, it may be expensive to do so. You can probably unload them pennies below their maximum expiration value.
Keep in mind that the liquidity in the options market understandably disappears, and the spreads substantially widen, when a security has only hours, or minutes until expiration on Friday, November 19. So, if you plan to exit, do so well before the final expiration at the Friday market close.
This is known in the trade as the “expiration risk.”
One way or the other, I’m sure you’ll do OK, as long as I am looking over your shoulder, as I will be, always. Think of me as your trading guardian angel.
I am going to hang back and wait for good entry points before jumping back in. It’s all about keeping that “Buy low, sell high” thing going.
I’m looking to cherry-pick my new positions going into the next month end.
Take your winnings and go out and buy yourself a well-earned dinner. Just make sure it’s take-out. I want you to stick around.
Well done, and on to the next trade.
You Can’t Do Enough Research
Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
November 16, 2021
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(FORGOTTEN COVID-19 STOCK STILL ALIVE AND KICKING)
(GILD), (REGN), (MRNA), (AZN), (JNJ), (PFE), (BNTX), (MRK)
At times, it can be rewarding to go against the tide. This can also be applicable to the stock market.
Forgotten names or companies with shares that got hammered can eventually transform into remarkable investment opportunities. After all, it's always wise to invest in a quality stock when it loses some serious altitude.
Now, let's take a look at a biotechnology and healthcare business that has been performing poorly in the past 12 months but still holds a promising chance of bouncing back: Gilead Sciences (GILD).
This biotechnology giant is still reeling after its recent regulatory setback involving Filgotinib, a potential treatment for rheumatoid arthritis.
Initially, Filgotinib was slated as Gilead Sciences' next blockbuster drug. Unfortunately, the US FDA didn't agree with those plans.
The regulatory body rejected the treatment, pointing out the risks of patients developing male fertility problems as one of the significant reasons.
By November 2020, Gilead Sciences completely abandoned the Filgotinib project, at least in the United States.
Prior to this, Gilead Sciences took center stage when its Remdesivir, sold under the brand name Veklury, was identified as an effective COVID-19 treatment.
While this product has taken the back seat since other treatments from the likes of Regeneron (REGN) and especially vaccines from Moderna (MRNA), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), AstraZeneca (AZN), Pfizer (PFE), and BioNTech (BNTX) have emerged, it still generated impressive numbers.
In the second quarter alone, Veklury brought in $829 million in revenue.
Gilead Sciences anticipate sales to reach somewhere between $2.7 billion and $3.1 billion for this drug in 2021.
Arguably, though, the biggest draw in buying Gilead Sciences stock is its HIV pipeline.
To date, the company holds roughly 75% of the market share in the US and approximately 50% in Europe.
What's even more promising is that the company's top-selling HIV product, Biktarvy, still has vast room to grow.
This is impressive considering that Biktarvy raked in approximately $2 billion in sales in the second quarter of 2021, showing off a 24.3% year-over-year jump.
Looking at its trajectory and considering that the drug generated $7.3 billion in 2020, Biktarvy sales are estimated to hit $11.7 billion in 2026.
More than the company's incredible dominance in cornering the HIV market, Gilead Sciences also has an excellent pipeline with over three dozen clinical programs queued.
Inevitably, one of its major concentrations is expanding its HIV portfolio.
In fact, it has recently teamed up with fellow biotechnology giant Merck (MRK) to collaborate on a potential HIV treatment—a candidate that's anticipated to equal if not surpass Biktarvy's fame.
One more potential blockbuster in the HIV market is Lenacapavir, which is an injection regiment that Gilead Sciences recently submitted for approval to the FDA.
If granted the green light, this will be administered once every 6 months, making it the first-ever long-acting regimen for HIV patients.
Meanwhile, the company is also growing its Hepatitis B franchise to avoid being too dependent on a single market.
So far, Gilead Sciences estimates about $1 billion in sales for this lineup in 2022, making the Hepatitis B portfolio a reliable part of the business.
Another growing section of the business is its cell therapy segment, with Yescarta and Tecartus nearing their peak performances at $1 billion in sales yearly.
Even its newly developed cancer cell therapy Magrolimab looks promising, with the potential to rake in another $1 billion in peak sales as well.
Needless to say, Gilead Sciences' new products and expansions have been displaying realistic potential to drive billions in added yearly revenue.
Overall, Gilead Sciences is a stable and profitable biotechnology and healthcare business.
It's a large-cap biopharmaceutical organization and market leader that has been solidly performing well for over 3 decades, with an influential presence in more than 35 countries.
Despite its recent challenges, Gilead Sciences remains an excellent buy, especially on the dip.
When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more
Mad Hedge Bitcoin Letter
November 16, 2021
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(TRADERS TAKE TAPROOT PROFITS)
(BTC), (ETH)

“Bitcoin actually has the balance and incentives center, and that is why it is starting to take off.” – Said Julian Assange, founder of Wikileaks
Global Market Comments
November 16, 2021
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(A NOTE ON OPTIONS CALLED AWAY)
(GS), (TLT)
Mad Hedge Technology Letter
November 15, 2021
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(THE GEM OF TRAVEL TECH ACCELERATES)
(ABNB)
Airlines are bracing for a tsunami of travelers for the upcoming Christmas season and it’s no surprise — people are itching to get out of their homes for good reason.
What the news reports don’t tell you is that many of these travelers are on their way to an Airbnb (ABNB), where they will not only stay a weekend to sample the local zeitgeist, but will make their Airbnb a work-from-home office for 4 weeks or perhaps more.
The side effects from the pandemic have indicated to companies that technologies like Zoom and DocuSign make it possible to work from home.
Airbnb makes it possible to work from any home.
And this newfound flexibility is triggering a revolution in how we travel because for the first time ever, millions of people can now travel anytime, anywhere for any length, and even live anywhere on Airbnb.
I firmly believe that this trend toward more flexibility will only accelerate.
The pandemic has suddenly untethered tens of millions of people from the need to go into an office.
In recent months, some of the world's largest companies —Procter & Gamble, Amazon, Ford, PricewaterhouseCoopers — have announced increased flexibility for employees to work remotely.
This is just the beginning as I fully expect more companies to follow their lead.
I am witnessing several trends as a result of this travel revolution.
Can you believe now that Mondays and Tuesdays are currently Airbnb’s highest growing days of the week to travel?
This is a paradigm shift in the way we think about movement and cross-border living.
Second, now people are traveling everywhere, literally everywhere. During the pandemic, over 100,000 cities have had at least one booking on Airbnb. And that includes 6,000 towns and cities that received their first booking ever on Airbnb. The third trend is people aren't just traveling on Airbnb, they're now living full time on Airbnb.
Long-term stays on Airbnb, classified as a stay up to 28 days or more, remain Airbnb’s fastest-growing category by trip length.
People are traveling with Airbnb for extended vacations, relocation, temporary housing, student housing, and many other reasons.
I’ve illustrated how there has been a massive boost in inherent demand for Airbnb units with the merging of travel and work, but the thing that gets me excited is the supply side of the equation.
Now finally, more people than ever are interested in hosting.
Airbnb ended Q3 with the most active listings ever.
Demand is driving more supply. In fact, Airbnb’s highest supply growth is in their highest-demand destinations, particularly in North America and Europe.
The travel rebound that began earlier this year accelerated in the third quarter resulting in Airbnb's best quarter yet recording revenue of $2.2 billion surpassing 2019 by 36%.
Net income of $834 million was the highest ever, nearly four times larger than a year ago.
Gross booking value of $11.9 billion slingshots above 2019's levels by 23%
Airbnb now has 4 million hosts, and 90% of hosts are individual meaning they specifically latched onto Airbnb’s platform to become a first-time host.
These units are only listed on Airbnb translating into Airbnb possessing the best quality of rental units and in high volume.
No other platform can lay claim to the depth of Airbnb’s business and companies like Tripadvisor.com, Expedia.com are miles behind the curve and still over-reliant on Google’s search engine to manufacture leads that translate into costly customer acquisition fees.
Airbnb now has a simple 10-step process to become a host where they’ve radically reduced the number of steps.
They’ve made it easier to host and the conversion rate for people starting to lease their space flow is up.
On no night, are Airbnb supply-constrained globally.
Before the pandemic, most people were narrowly stuck in their search parameters.
However, now, over 500 million searches have used flexible searches. More than 40% of searches, guests are flexible on where or when they're traveling, and as Airbnb management has become brilliant at predicting the onslaught of demand before it comes to fruition, they have also been stellar at adding the corresponding supply at the right moment in a preemptive fashion.
Airbnb has really moved the profitability needle and future quarters will see a hockey stick-shaped effect on revenue and EPS.
Any pullback should be bought and, to be honest, Airbnb really has hit the sweet spot as the world’s digital housing agent.
I am highly bullish on Airbnb for the year 2022 and beyond.
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