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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

An Explosive Chip Stock

Tech Letter

One of the best semiconductor growth companies out there must be Marvell Technology, Inc. (MRVL).

Lately, performance has been clicking with revenue of 61% year over year.

And similar to the third quarter, MRVL is expecting another strong performance led by cloud customers across a broad range of products.

They expect data center revenue to more than double from a year ago, and project sequential growth in the double-digits on a percentage basis in the fourth quarter.

I am pleased with the strength of the cloud end market, which I expect will remain a strong driver of sustained growth for Marvell.

Looking out further in time, I believe there is immense potential for another phase of growth as large-scale virtual environments, such as Facebook (FB) is doing with their metaverse, start to gain traction.

In short, I expect many different implementations of virtual environments enabled by a broad set of companies and ecosystems that MRVL will be involved in.

Regardless of the form these environments take, the data sets will be exponentially larger compared to the current internet, which is largely two-dimensional, and latency will need to be extremely low to realistically simulate a real-world environment.

As a result, I expect the metaverse will significantly accelerate a number of key trends, which are already developing in the cloud today, including the need to store huge amounts of data in a secure environment, connected by high-speed electro-optic links to custom compute engines.

This next level of massive scaling makes the metaverse an even stronger candidate for cloud-optimized silicon solutions that Marvell is currently enabling.

This meshes perfectly with the core competencies MRVL has already developed across compute, storage, security, networking, high-speed electro-optics, and customization, which are driving their current success.

And these are equally applicable to the variety of virtual environments, which MRVL will develop over time.

The metaverse also has the potential to be a killer app for 5G, another area of strength for Marvell.

Multiple cloud customers have already engaged with MRVL, as they start designing the architecture of their next generation of data infrastructure to enable a significantly richer set of virtual applications and experiences.

Looking at the fourth quarter, I expect a strong ramp in MRVL’s 5G business of approximately 30% sequentially.

It's exciting to see MRVL step up in the 5G business, and I expect significant additional growth over the next several years as 5G adoption continues to grow around the globe, combined with Marvell content gains from designs.

Lastly, the future of technology in cars is all about electrification and intelligence, with embedded security and onboard storage in a fully networked environment.

Similar to the rise of optimized silicon and cloud, automotive OEMs are realizing that to differentiate their products and need unique technology and IP to be embedded in compute silicon optimized to their specific platforms.

In short, MRVL is at the intersection of growth and opportunity of every major technological innovation that carries weight.

From the metaverse, data center, and electric cars, their products are the heartbeat of how these technologies will evolve.

Buying this stock is a bet on technology accelerating which it surely will and long term, I don’t see how this stock isn’t up from today.

marvell

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-12-10 13:02:302021-12-27 15:51:13An Explosive Chip Stock
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Quote of the Day - December 10, 2021

Tech Letter

“I don't think of Apple as a stock. I think of it as our third business.” – Said Legendary U.S. Investor Warren Buffett

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/warren-buffett.png 480 302 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-12-10 13:00:242021-12-10 17:43:17Quote of the Day - December 10, 2021
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

December 10, 2021

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
December 10, 2021
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(THE NEXT COMMODITY SUPERCYCLE HAS ALREADY STARTED),
(COPX), (GLD), (FCX), (BHP), (RIO), (SIL),
 (PPLT), (PALL), (GOLD), (ECH), (EWZ), (IDX)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-12-10 10:04:492021-12-10 13:39:51December 10, 2021
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

December 9, 2021

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
December 9, 2021
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(A WELL-BALANCED STOCK FOR YOUR RETIREMENT PORTFOLIO)
(ABBV)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-12-09 17:02:102021-12-09 21:22:07December 9, 2021
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

A Well-Balanced Stock for Your Retirement Portfolio

Biotech Letter

Have you ever heard of the barbell investment strategy?

If you have already started planning for retirement, you’ve probably been told to assess your risk tolerance level and develop a portfolio that fits that profile.

While there are many things you need to learn about this topic, one of the recurring concepts is that regardless of your risk level, you will always need to build two portfolios.

One portfolio comprises the risks below your risk level, and the other goes beyond it: the barbell model.

Basically, the more conservative portfolio will form part of your short-term survival goals, while the more aggressive one will be reserved for long-term growth.

This barbell strategy gained prominence thanks to Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a renowned statistician, essayist, and trader.

He famously adhered to this tactic during the 2007-2008 economic meltdown, allowing his finances to flourish while his fellow Wall Streeters watched their investments crash.

Taking this approach into consideration, one of the names in the biotechnology and healthcare industry emerges as an embodiment of the investment that meets the requirements of both ends of the barbell: AbbVie (ABBV).

Recently, AbbVie announced a healthy 8.5% boost in its quarterly cash dividend from $1.30 per share to $1.41, which will be payable in February 2022.

This latest increase has pushed its dividend yield to roughly 4.9% under its current price.

Needless to say, this type of dividend yield makes AbbVie an excellent candidate to deliver short-term growth.

Moreover, this isn’t a one-time achievement for the company. The company has a proven track record of returning cash to its shareholders via a growing dividend.

In fact, the company’s quarterly dividend has climbed by over 250% since its inception way back in 2013.

This achievement has secured AbbVie a membership in the S&P Dividend Aristocrats Index, which keeps track of companies that have consistently increased their dividends annually for at least 25 consecutive years.

AbbVie also has outstanding growth prospects primarily due to the solid secular support backing its business and robust pipeline.

Since the biotechnology and healthcare segment targets an essential human need that is showing no signs of disappearing or even changing soon, ordinary investors and super investors have been lured to this sector.

A case in point is Warren Buffett, who currently holds over $1.5 billion worth of AbbVie shares.

And the demand is only going to get stronger moving forward, due to various factors like population growth and extended life expectancy, translating to long-term secular support.

Actually, the average national health spending in the US alone is estimated to grow at an annual rate of 5.4%—far surpassing inflation. By 2028, the spending is projected to reach $6.2 trillion.

Riding the momentum of this industry, AbbVie has been busy working on its pipeline.

To date, the company has roughly 100 candidates in its pipeline, with 29 in the later stage of drug development.

Among them, the most talked about are plaque psoriasis treatments Skyrizi and Rinvoq.

These two are expected to become the long-term substitutes or replacements for AbbVie’s top-selling drug, Humira, which would lose its patent exclusivity by 2023.

Skyrizi showed off an 83.3% year-over-year increase and generated $796 million in the third quarter.

Meanwhile, Rinvoq sales doubled to reach $453 million. Together, their sales totaled $1.2 billion.

For context, Humira sales in the same quarter reached $5.4 billion. So while the two have yet to reach the level of Humira in terms of sales, it looks like they’re off to a promising start.

In the next few years, Skyrizi and Rinvoq sales will reach $15 billion.

Other products are also helping fill the void of Humira’s pending loss.

Aside from creating successors of Humira, AbbVie also leveraged its cash flow to acquire Allergan in May 2020 for $63 billion.

This deal handed the company a number of exciting products, and the most promising is the Botox franchise. Considering that it would be difficult, if not impossible, to develop a biosimilar for Botox, this was a great decision.

In the third-quarter report, AbbVie disclosed that Botox Cosmetics rose by 38.5% year-over-year to bring in $545 million. Meanwhile, Botox Therapeutics rose by 23.4% year-over-year to generate $645 million.

Interestingly, while AbbVie’s fundamentals look solid, this particular stock appears to be heavily discounted by the market. The main reason could be the concerns over the pending patent loss of Humira.

However, AbbVie is a picture of an optimal combination of excellent short-term income, solid and proven financial safety, and long-term secular support.

Moreover, given AbbVie’s history, ability to generate cash and consistent payout, it’s reasonable to categorize this company as safe as the coupon payments taken from treasury bonds.

 

abbvie

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-12-09 17:00:222021-12-19 15:31:04A Well-Balanced Stock for Your Retirement Portfolio
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

December 9, 2021

Bitcoin Letter

Mad Hedge Bitcoin Letter
December 9, 2021
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(CRYPTO REGULATION IS FAR AWAY)
(BTC),

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/regulatora.png 464 838 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-12-09 15:04:042021-12-09 21:24:42December 9, 2021
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Crypto Regulation is Far Away

Bitcoin Letter

Indecision.

That’s what you get when Washington tries to wrap their brains around crypto regulation.

Cryptocurrency industry executives appeared before Congress to debate whether crypto technologies hold a use case for the future.

A Republican even brought up whether politicians “know enough about this technology to have a serious debate.”

So we are talking about really low levels of crypto comprehension here.

It almost reminds me of the Senate discussions on Facebook years ago when government officials failed to understand what digital advertising was or how Facebook made money.

It was something of that sort, but of course, with a different asset class altogether.

At least Facebook dealt in terminology that was closer to what Congress could understand.

Some Democrats at the hearing couldn’t make a decision about whether crypto is an inherent good or bad.

I feel that this could be the biggest threat where Democrats pit crypto against the US dollar and see it as a necessary evil to take down.

No wonder Bitcoin had a slightly down day in the crypto market as the net net of the talks was consensus that this is going to take a long time to get any meaningful victories and Congress barely knows what this is.

There is nothing smash and grab about this.

Everyone wants their piece of it.

It’s no coincidence that California has the highest income tax regime out of any state and let’s hope Democratic politicians don’t take that type of attitude to crypto.

We are not talking about technical questions here.

This is a $3 trillion market and it’s no joke.

A few Republicans were highly laissez-faire in nature during talks and proposed having minimal regulation realizing not to kill the goose that lays the golden eggs.

The argument revolved around making sure America was the heart and center of the future crypto industry.

Readers should remember that China banned crypto and expelled their crypto miners who had to flee to Texas and Kazakhstan.

China has made its decision that it won’t partake in any upside to the crypto industry.

A widely accepted principle of modern politics is that the American right loathes regulation and that Republicans will do everything in their power to get rid of as much government as possible.

Ever since the Reagan Presidency, Republicans have built this anti-government narrative, claiming that government crushes personal freedom, outsources jobs, and sabotages economic growth.

If Republicans flip the house in 2022 during the mid-term elections, crypto regulation will most likely be put on the backburner for good.

I don’t see any deal breakers coming our way, but certainly, the indecision during this meeting caused a dark shadow over the direction of crypto even if for a split second.

It was a reminder that crypto isn’t the panacea for all evils.

Even if nothing gets decided now, but down the road something does, it would be something more than insanity for Congress to kill a $5 trillion or $10 trillion industry by the time they can get around to destroying it.

The silver lining in the short-term is that investors will keep pouring capital into crypto-based and blockchain investments and technology like the metaverse will still get built with crypto tokens being the heart and central to a metaverse payment system.

None of that will get shut down for years and like many other industries in America, this just might get too big to fail, maybe gift in a few or several bailouts along the way as well ala the banking sector.

Remember, this still is America!

Maybe I am being a little too cynical, but remember that Facebook and its blatant and brazen theft of data business model just need to pay lip service to Congress during Senate hearings once in a while and they are good to go.  

Crypto does nothing nearly as terrible as Facebook.

And Facebook is still the leader in creating the Metaverse after all of that.

Congress still hasn’t done squat and I can easily see crypto following the same type of game script.

Get ready for the same old story, crypto executives and politicians sitting within a 4-wall room agreeing that something needs to be done but without creating deadlines or any call to action.

Long term this is great for crypto and there will be no meaningful regulation for years.

 

 

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/regulatora.png 464 838 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-12-09 15:02:012021-12-09 21:24:13Crypto Regulation is Far Away
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Quote of the Day - December 9, 2021

Bitcoin Letter

Crypto CEO’s to Congress: Regulate us, but don't ‘shoehorn’old rules on new assets

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/shoehorn.png 352 556 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-12-09 15:00:582021-12-09 21:19:30Quote of the Day - December 9, 2021
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Trade Alert - (TLT) December 9, 2021 - SELL-TAKE PROFITS

Trade Alert

When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Alert-e1457452190575.jpg 135 150 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-12-09 10:06:452021-12-09 10:14:01Trade Alert - (TLT) December 9, 2021 - SELL-TAKE PROFITS
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

December 9, 2021

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
December 9, 2021
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(WHAT EVER HAPPENED TO THE GREAT DEPRESSION DEBT?),
($TNX), (TLT), (TBT)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-12-09 10:04:542021-12-09 12:53:58December 9, 2021
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