“AI doesn’t have to be evil to destroy humanity – if AI has a goal and humanity just happens to come in the way, it will destroy humanity as a matter of course without even thinking about it, no hard feelings.” – Said Founder and CEO of Tesla Elon Musk
When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more
When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more
Global Market Comments
February 23, 2022
Fiat Lux
Featured Trades:
(JOIN ME ON CUNARD’S MS QUEEN VICTORIA
FOR MY JULY 9, 2022 SEMINAR AT SEA)
"The less the prudence with which others conduct their affairs, the greater the prudence with which we must conduct our own," said Oracle of Omaha Warren Buffet.
Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
February 22, 2022
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(AN ATTRACTIVELY VALUED BIOTECH ON THE VERGE OF BREAKTHROUGHS)
(VRTX), (IBB), (ABBV), (CRSP)
Some stocks bring quick and easy gains, and those are thrilling. However, a key strategy behind a successful portfolio is always including solid players that deliver excellent returns in the long run.
One of the things I appreciate about investing in the healthcare sector is that this industry is primed to perform well no matter what happens to the market.
After all, people will continue to depend on their products and services regardless of the situation in the financial and economic world.
In the biotechnology and healthcare sector, an excellent way to ensure this is to evaluate a company’s pipeline.
This serves as a good indicator of whether the business has the capacity and potential to generate revenue in the years to come. It’s also advisable to check out a company’s general financial picture and, of course, its strategy. Those elements play critical roles in tomorrow’s performance.
With these criteria in mind, one of the biotechnology names that stand out in the field is Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX).
With a market capitalization of $58.45 billion, Vertex is considered one of the biggest biotechnology companies in the world.
To date, it is included in the Top 5 list of iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB). Over the years, the company has primarily concentrated on the cystic fibrosis (CF) field.
With its leading CF treatment, Trikafta, gaining approval for a triple combination back in 2019, Vertex has cornered practically 90% of the market.
Unfortunately, Vertex’s share price has remained relatively unchanged for the past two years.
This stagnant performance could be attributed to the disappointing Phase 2 results of its rare liver disease treatment VX-814 in October 2020 and respiratory medication VX-864 in June 2021.
Due to the setbacks from these studies, investors have started to question Vertex’s ability to come up with a marketable treatment outside its CF portfolio.
Vertex posted revenue increases in its recent reports despite these disappointing results.
In the fourth quarter of 2021, the company reported $2.073 billion in revenues, indicating a 27% increase year-over-year, along with an impressive 31% profit growth.
As expected, the revenue boost was courtesy of Trikafta, which recorded a 55% increase in its annual sales.
For the entire 2021 fiscal year, Vertex raked in $7.57 billion in revenues and $3.38 billion in profits, showing off a notable 45% net margin.
Prior to this report, Vertex’s initial guidance for its 2021 revenues was at $6.8 billion.
At that time, experts already believed that the company might be overestimating its capacity, especially considering the setbacks of the trials.
However, it managed to exceed expectations.
Surprisingly, Vertex disclosed an even higher fiscal outlook for 2022 at $8.5 billion. Considering that the company tends to be conservative in its estimates, the following months would definitely bring exciting breakthroughs for Vertex.
In fact, if we look at its track record, there’s a very good chance that the $8.5 billion annual revenue estimate would reach $8.8 billion or even hit $9 billion by the end of 2022.
In terms of its pipeline, Vertex has been working on strengthening its hold in the CF market. This becomes even more necessary with AbbVie (ABBV) hot on its heels with its own version of a triple combination CF therapy expected to rival Trikafta.
Outside its CF program, there are roughly 10 assets queued in various stages of clinical trials.
So far, the most advanced is its mRNA-based cell therapy collaboration with CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP). The treatment, called CTX001, is being developed to target sickle cell disease and beta-thalassemia.
To date, CTX001 is already in Phase 3. It’s slated for regulatory submission to the FDA sometime in the third or fourth quarter of 2022. In terms of profits, CTX001’s peak sales is projected at $1.3 billion.
Another promising candidate is kidney disease treatment VX-147, which is in Phase 2.
Two more candidates are in Phase 2, diabetes cell therapy VX-880 and potential opioid substitute VX-548. While additional trials are still needed, both are anticipated to become blockbuster treatments and game-changers when they enter the market.
Looking at Vertex’s pipeline and the progress of its candidates, it’s safe to say that the company has the capacity to come up with blockbusters outside its CF program.
Moreover, Vertex has an outstanding investment ability due to its high cash balance worth more than $7.5 billion and an impressive balance sheet.
This means that Vertex has the capability to participate in a significant acquisition in the following years in an effort to bolster its pipeline. In this vein, an obvious and alluring candidate would be CRISPR Therapeutics, which is currently valued at $4.49 billion.
Overall, Vertex is a remarkable biotechnology company that has specialized in a lucrative niche for several years, equipping it with the ability to successfully monopolize the sector.
Although market volatility has recently affected it, Vertex still managed to report revenue growth and promising data from its trials. With its relative financial strength and excellent pipeline, I believe this makes the stock a good investment in the long term.
Mad Hedge Bitcoin Letter
February 22, 2022
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(BTC FAILS THE ACID TEST)
(BTC), (ETH)
Sell Bitcoin (BTC) when it rallies.
The goalposts have narrowed lately for the digital gold and investors need to trade the market we have, not the market we want.
Even for long term, the crypto bull case is alive and kicking. In the short term, the flight to safety trade has shown that bitcoin is yet the safety asset believers want you to think it is.
Cash or treasuries are better options even with inflation running a hot 7.5%.
An ominous sign of late was when the co-founder of the Ethereum (ETH) blockchain Vitalik Buterin told us the digital-asset universe may actually benefit from a selloff in coin prices.
That’s bad news for prices if he says that.
“The people who are deep into crypto, and especially building things, a lot of them welcome a bear market,” Buterin said during an interview with Bloomberg.
“They welcome the bear market because when there are these long periods of prices moving up by huge amounts like it does — it does obviously make a lot of people happy — but it does also tend to invite a lot of very short-term speculative attention.”
I don’t agree with his statement and it’s an engineer talking about something important but at a technical level.
Investors don’t care what happens at that technical level in the short term.
Although there will always be speculators in every asset class, there is room for all sorts of investors long and short.
The speculators add liquidity to the market in an asset class where many coin creators are begging for more adoption.
For Buterin, to make this selloff about speculators is somewhat arrogant.
The truth is that he should be cheerleading anyone and everyone to get into crypto no matter where the funds come from.
On a micro level, Buterin should be more worried about competing against Bitcoin which is a tough ask.
Unfortunately, crypto has performed poorly against the flight to safety bid when a cornerstone premise had it that bitcoin and crypto were supposed to be part of that safety trade.
The currency is not mature enough and the weakness in prices tell the whole story.
Some highly publicized crypto hacks haven’t helped the case of the normal guy putting money into crypto either.
It continues to be a selective niche industry where it’s a hassle to go from fiat to crypto exchange and many can’t figure out the tax reporting rules.
Buterin has shifted his focus to scaling Ethereum in recent years. The popular blockchain has long suffered criticism because transactions on Ethereum can be slow and expensive.
Buterin should just worry about his own digital currency lasting the test of time instead of thinking he can pick and choose what type of investors goes into crypto.
Investors dumped Bitcoin after Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered troops into Ukraine.
Therefore, expect any geopolitical flareups to include huge bitcoin selloffs and a flight to the US dollar.
Any kinetic war means another leg down in bitcoin.
Volatility will play a huge role in the next move in bitcoin.
If there is a moderate solution to the Eastern European military hostility, then expect Bitcoin to jump back into the $40,000 area while an acceleration of aggressiveness will be met with a selloff down to $30,000.
So yes, guys like Buterin aren’t building the quality that needs to be built.
Clearly, they have been penalized and boxed up as if digital crypto is of inferior value to a normal equity stock.
The trust in the asset is not broad-based and it lends to the theory that readers shouldn’t double down in any crypto-related asset, but inch in and go from there.
Crypto has also performed poorly with rapidly advancing interest yields which is also worrying for readers looking for asset appreciation.
If bitcoin bounces back to over $40,000, I will sell that rally.
“Whenever technological advancement is made it can always be used both for good or for bad.” – Said Internet Entrepreneur Pavel Durov
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