While waiting two hours to vote at the Incline Village Library this weekend, I counted the number of smartwatches in the line.
Seemed like everyone was checking their heart rates in the cold. One woman's Apple Watch even suggested she sit down after standing too long in the 40-degree weather.
That got me thinking about the billions flowing into medical wearables - and where that money should really be going instead.
Let's start with some sobering numbers about atrial fibrillation (AFib), the crown jewel of smartwatch detection capabilities.
Yes, Apple's (AAPL) 2020 study showed their watches can detect 84% of AFib cases during monitoring sessions. Sounds impressive, until you dig deeper.
Of the 50 million Americans wearing smartwatches, these devices identify only about 5,000 new AFib cases annually - a mere 0.083% of the 6 million Americans affected by the condition.
Plus, the real money tells a different story. The U.S. performs 250,000 ablation procedures yearly, creating a $3.2 billion market growing at 10% annually.
Abbott Laboratories (ABT), Boston Scientific (BSX), and Medtronic (MDT) dominate this space, with combined annual revenues of $12.4 billion from their cardiac rhythm management divisions alone.
Those 5,000 smartwatch-detected cases? They represent just 2% of annual ablation procedures. Not exactly the revolution we've been promised.
The story doesn't improve when we look at sleep apnea detection.
While Apple and Samsung tout their sleep-monitoring capabilities, their watches identify only about 60,000 of the 2 million new sleep apnea cases diagnosed yearly - that's 3% of new diagnoses.
Meanwhile, ResMed (RMD) and Inspire Medical Systems (INSP) generated combined revenues of $4.8 billion last year from sleep apnea treatments.
The smartwatch contribution to their patient pipeline is barely a rounding error.
Still, it’s not like this sector is a complete waste. The global smartwatch market stands at $58 billion and is projected to reach $98 billion by 2027, growing at 10.5% annually. Impressive, until you compare it to the traditional medical device market: $495 billion, reaching $718 billion by 2029.
The cardiac monitoring device segment alone represents $24.5 billion, expanding at 6.9% annually.
More importantly, traditional medical device companies are growing their revenues faster than smartwatch detection is adding to their patient base.
But, like I said, don't write off the sector entirely. The next generation of smartwatches promises some intriguing possibilities.
Continuous blood pressure monitoring could tap into a $23 billion market.
Non-invasive glucose tracking might crack the $28 billion diabetes monitoring space by 2027.
Enhanced sleep diagnostics could open up another $12.8 billion in opportunities.
So what's the smart play here?
Near term, keep your focus on established leaders like Abbott and Medtronic. Their upcoming Q4 earnings reports will tell us more about traditional patient acquisition trends than any smartwatch sales figures.
Watch for FDA clearances too - Abbott's new cardiac mapping system, expected in Q1 2025, could be a game-changer.
Looking out 12-24 months, keep your eye on companies like Dexcom (DXCM) and Insulet (PODD) as glucose monitoring moves mainstream.
ResMed's new sleep diagnostic platforms, launching mid-2025, could redefine how we think about sleep medicine.
Meanwhile, Boston Scientific's push into AI-enhanced cardiac monitoring might just bridge the gap between consumer tech and serious medical devices.
For long-term thinkers, watch for companies developing hybrid solutions that combine traditional devices with consumer tech.
The real breakthrough will come when medical device makers start acquiring wearable technology companies. That's when you'll know the revolution is real.
Remember, following the patient flow matters more than following the hype flow. Just like timing your visit to avoid a two-hour voting line, timing in the market is everything.
And right now, the time is right for medical device stocks, not their flashier smartwatch cousins.
Meta, the tech giant behind Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp, is no stranger to controversy. But its recent foray into the world of large language models (LLMs) with its Llama family has ignited a new firestorm, this time centered around the very definition of "open source." While Meta claims its Llama models are open source, critics argue that the company is muddying the waters, confusing users, and ultimately "polluting" a term that holds significant weight within the software development community.
The heart of the issue lies in the discrepancy between Meta's use of the term "open source" and the long-established understanding of what it entails. The Open Source Initiative (OSI), a non-profit organization that maintains the Open Source Definition (OSD), has been vocal in its criticism of Meta's labeling. According to the OSD, open-source software must grant users the freedom to use, study, share, and modify the software in any way they choose. This typically includes access to the source code and the ability to redistribute both the original and modified versions.
While Meta allows free access to its Llama models and permits their use for research and commercial purposes, it falls short of the OSD's criteria in several key aspects.
Points of Contention:
Limited Transparency: Meta has not released the training data or the code used to train the Llama models. This lack of transparency makes it difficult for researchers to understand the models' inner workings, reproduce results, or identify potential biases and limitations.
Restrictive Licensing: While the Llama models are available for free, their license includes certain restrictions. Notably, companies with over 700 million daily active users are prohibited from using the models, a clause seemingly targeted at competitors like Google and Microsoft. This restriction contradicts the open-source principle of free and unrestricted use.
"Open Weights" vs. "Open Source": Meta often uses the phrase "open weights" to describe its models. This term, while gaining traction in the AI community, is not synonymous with "open source." Releasing the model weights allows users to utilize the pre-trained model but doesn't provide the same level of transparency and control as access to the full source code and training data.
Why the Controversy Matters:
The debate surrounding Meta's use of "open source" is not merely semantic. It strikes at the core of what open source represents and has significant implications for the future of AI development:
Trust and Transparency: Open source fosters trust by allowing users to scrutinize software and verify its claims. Meta's approach, with its limited transparency, undermines this trust and raises concerns about potential hidden biases or limitations in the Llama models.
Collaboration and Innovation: Open source thrives on collaboration and the free exchange of ideas. By imposing restrictions on usage and withholding crucial information, Meta hinders the collaborative spirit that has driven open-source innovation for decades.
Fair Competition: The restrictive licensing clause targeting large companies raises concerns about anti-competitive practices. Critics argue that Meta is leveraging the "open source" label to gain a competitive advantage while limiting the ability of others to build upon its work.
Ethical AI Development: Transparency and open collaboration are crucial for developing ethical and responsible AI. Without access to the training data and code, it is difficult to assess and mitigate potential biases, safety risks, and societal impacts of LLMs.
The Impact on the Open-Source Community:
Meta's actions have sparked widespread debate within the open-source community. Many developers and experts have expressed concerns about the potential for Meta's approach to dilute the meaning of "open source" and erode trust in the label.
Some argue that Meta's "open washing" – using the term "open source" for marketing purposes without adhering to its principles – could mislead users and create confusion about what constitutes truly open-source software. This confusion could ultimately harm the open-source movement by making it harder for users to identify and support genuinely open projects.
Others worry that Meta's influence and resources could lead to the normalization of a less open definition of "open source" in the AI domain. This could set a dangerous precedent, encouraging other companies to adopt similar practices and undermining the core values of the open-source movement.
Meta's Response:
Meta has defended its approach, arguing that existing open-source definitions do not adequately address the complexities of LLMs. The company claims to be committed to working with the industry to develop new definitions that better reflect the unique challenges of AI development.
However, critics argue that Meta's actions speak louder than its words. The company's continued use of the "open source" label despite widespread criticism suggests a reluctance to acknowledge the concerns of the open-source community.
Looking Ahead:
The controversy surrounding Meta's Llama models highlights the growing tension between the traditional values of open source and the commercial interests of tech giants in the rapidly evolving field of AI.
As LLMs become increasingly powerful and influential, the need for clear definitions and ethical guidelines becomes paramount. The open-source community, with its emphasis on transparency, collaboration, and community-driven development, has a crucial role to play in shaping the future of AI.
It remains to be seen whether Meta will revise its approach to align with the principles of open source or continue to chart its own course. The outcome of this debate will have significant implications for the future of AI development and the open-source movement as a whole.
In Conclusion:
Meta's use of the "open source" label for its Llama models has sparked a heated debate about the meaning and future of open source in the age of AI. While Meta's contributions to the AI field are undeniable, its approach raises concerns about transparency, ethical development, and the potential for misuse.
The controversy serves as a reminder that the principles of open source – freedom, collaboration, and community – are more important than ever in ensuring that AI technologies are developed and deployed responsibly. It is crucial for the open-source community to remain vigilant in upholding these principles and challenging any attempts to dilute their meaning or undermine their importance.
When I see Bitcoin coming back from the doldrums, it highly suggests to me that there is a great deal of liquidity sloshing around in the markets.
Bitcoin doesn’t pay your mortgage or buy food at the grocery.
Fiat currencies do.
Therefore, users still need to convert their crypto holdings into whatever it may be, whether it is Turkish Lira or Euro, to transact with most retailers.
So when we have a roaring economy of 3% GDP powered by $3 trillion in annual deficit spending, it seems that many investors are focused on the large deficit spending, which infuses a heavy dose of asset appreciation into the economy and other asset classes like crypto and tech stocks. That is why tech stocks, houses, Bitcoin, and groceries are all expensive and rarely go down in price.
Bitcoin approaching $70,000 per coin is a highly bullish sign to the rest of the tech stocks that this rally will power on until year-end.
Tech stocks are denominated in US dollars, which makes them a huge beneficiary of increasing global liquidity, which is on the rise again, with central banks across the world injecting cheap capital into their economies.
When global liquidity has exceeded its moving average in the past, it has often coincided with significant upward movements in the price of Bitcoin and tech stocks.
Compounding the positive fortunes of Bitcoin and tech stocks are the presidential candidates saying they are very pro-crypto.
Republican candidate Donald Trump is avowedly pro-crypto, so much so that Bitcoin is viewed as a so-called Trump trade. Democratic rival Vice President Kamala Harris has vowed to support a regulatory framework for the industry.
I do believe that this synchronized trade of higher-tech stocks, higher bitcoin, a weaker yen, and stronger gold continues until there is a paradigm shift.
The one outsized risk that is a “known known” is the Aha moment when investors realize the federal debt is a now problem.
We have kicked the can down the road for decades, but even Elon Musk has repeated a warning that the U.S. is hurtling toward the brink of "bankruptcy."
U.S. national debt has skyrocketed in recent years, crossing the $34 trillion mark at the beginning of 2024, largely due to lockdown stimulus measures that sent inflation spiraling out of control and forced the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates at a historical clip.
Earlier this year, Bank of America warned the U.S. debt load is about to ramp up to add $1 trillion every 100 days, headed towards $36 trillion by the end of 2024. This will also trigger a surge in Bitcoin prices.
I do believe if the federal government limits its debt spending to $3 trillion per year, tech stocks and bitcoin will continue to increase in price in tandem.
However, if we ever do get a recession, yes, the one that was supposed to happen since 2019, then it could trigger a $15 trillion federal debt response to limit the contagion, destroying more purchasing power.
A massive fiscal event like that would careen the US economy into a dangerous path while disrupt the tech and bitcoin trade into the only bitcoin and gold trade.
We still have time to get the situation under control, but neither party has even talked about it during their campaign. Only Musk has said he wants to create a department of efficiencies to trim the fat and reduce government spending.
As it stands now, goldilocks continues, and readers should buy the dip in tech stocks.
https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png00april@madhedgefundtrader.comhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngapril@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-10-21 14:02:022024-10-21 15:55:57Bitcoin Price Action Is Good For Stocks
11:00 a.m. Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index (October)
Earnings:American Airlines, UPS, Southwest, Harley Davidson, Honeywell, Western Digital, Amazon.
Friday, Oct 25
8:30 am US Durable Goods
Previous: 0.0%
Forecast: -0.9%
Earnings:Colgate Palmolive
This week, the market is all about earnings.The results of these earnings will indicate whether stocks can keep roaring along and support the broadening we are witnessing in the market.Valuations are stretched – the S&P500 is trading at a 40% premium to its long-term P/E ratio, while tech stocks are trading at upwards of 60%.Earnings growth expectations are lower for this season, so the market could reward stocks that beat expectations.On the flip side, a big earnings miss could disappoint and sway investor sentiment.
Whatever the market deals out, retail sales are still expected to be quite strong this holiday season, and they are expected to be influenced by hurricanes and the Election.
MARKET UPDATE
S&P500
Uptrend is intact. Through an Elliott Wave lens, the market is still rallying within a broad wave 5 advance.
Next Target = ~ 5, 930
Support = ~ 5,800/5,750
GOLD
Uptrend intact.No signs of exhaustion yet.
Next target = ~ $2,750/$2,770
Support = ~ $2,700/$2,680
BITCOIN
Rally in progress. In the next week or two, we are looking to break out of the large flag pattern Bitcoin has formed over the last few months.
We reached $68,000 last week, and now we should see the bullish move continue to reach higher targets.
Next Target = ~ $73,400/$81,500
Support Range lies between $67,000 to $64,500
WHERE TO ADD WEIGHT
On October 10, I recommended a list of stocks to either add weight to if you held them or to start scaling into if you didn’t own them.
Today, I’m recommending you, once again, add weight to (SLV) and start scaling into (AGQ) Pro Shares Ultra Silver.Both stocks are now breaking out of a 6-month range pattern that could be interrupted as an inverse head and shoulders, and that sets up the potential for a bullish move, which would be a continuation of the overall bullish theme in the precious metals markets.
Pro Shares Ultra Silver (AGQ)
iShares Silver Trust (SLV)
AUSTRALIAN CORNER
Charles and Camilla are Down Under for a brief tour.(It may be the final time Charles visits Australia).
QI CORNER
SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT
TRIVIA CORNER
Answers
1/ Which country has the longest coastline?
Canada.Its coastline measures 243,042 km (151,019 miles).This includes the mainland coast and the coasts of offshore islands.Canada’s coastline borders the Atlantic, Pacific, and Arctic Oceans.
2/ Who was the first U.S. billionaire?
Henry Ford.He has often been referred to as “American’s second billionaire” by those who believed Rockefeller to be the first.Henry Ford reached 10-figure zone by about 1925.His net worth was estimated to be around $1.2 billion by the mid-1920s.Today, that fortune would be worth around $200 billion.
3/ Which first lady was the first to appear on U.S. currency?
Martha Washington, the wife of the first U.S. President.She was the first woman to be featured on U.S. paper currency with a solo portrait.
We are now nearly three months into an almost straight-up move in the stock market, and money managers everywhere are scratching their heads. We are now only 136 points or 2.32% from my yearend (SPX) target of 6,000, which is starting to look pretty conservative. The price-earnings multiple for the S&P 500 is now 21X, the Magnificent Seven 28X, and NVIDIA 65X.
I’ve seen all this before.
We are about as close to a perfect Goldilocks scenario as we can get. Interest rates and inflation are falling. A 3% GDP growth rate means the US has the strongest major economy and is the envy of the world. We have entered the euphoria stage of the current market move in almost all asset glasses. Gold (GLD) has gone up almost every day. Some big tech remains on fire. Energy prices are in free fall. Even bonds (TLT) are trying to put in a bottom.
Complacence is running rampant.
So, how the heck do we trade a market like this? You play the laggard trade.
The biggest risk to the gold trade is that it has gone up 40% in a year. So, what do you do? The response by traders has been to move into lagging silver (SLV) (AGQ), which has been on a tear since September.
Had enough with the Mag Seven? Then, rotate in the sub $1 trillion part of the market with Broadcom (AVGO), ASML Holdings NV (ASML), Micron Technology (MU), and Lam Research (LRCX).
Tired of watching your DH Horton (DHI) go up every day? Then, flip into smaller homebuilders like Pulte Homes (PHM) and Lennar (LEN).
And then there is the biggest laggard of all, the nuclear trade, which is just crawling out of a 40-year penalty box. With news that Amazon (AMZN) was planning to order up to eight Small Modular Reactors to power its AI efforts, all uranium plays continue to go ballistic. The proliferation of power-hungry data centers is driving the greatest growth of power needs since WWII and the Manhattan Project.
Fortunately, I got in early. This is a trend that could become the next NVIDIA, as the public stocks involved are coming off such a low base. I have personally interviewed the founders and examined Nuscale’s plans with a fine tooth come and consider them genius. The company is, far and away, the overwhelming leader in the sector. The puzzle for the pros who understand the technology is why it took so long. Buy (CCJ), (VST), (CEG), (BWXT), and (OKLO) on dips.
It's like everything is racing towards a key, even with an unknown outcome. There happens to be a big one coming up: the US presidential elections on November 6.
Speaking of elections, I took the time to participate in the first day of voting in Nevada on Saturday, October 19, at the Incline Village Public Library. I waited in line for two hours in a brisk and breezy 40 degrees. I wore my Marine Corps cap and Ukraine Army ID just to confuse people. Some got so tired of waiting in the cold that they went home, retrieved their mail-in ballots, and returned to the polls to drop them off.
I looked back on the line, and women outnumbered the men by three to one. Where did all these women come from? There used to be such a shortage of women at Lake Tahoe that it was impossible to get a date. Hunting, fishing, long-distance backpacking, and skiing weren’t used to attract such large numbers of the female gender. Maybe now they do? But now they’re driving up in Mercedes AMG’s and Range Rovers.
When I finally arrived at the front of the line, I was asked to sign an agreement with my finger, acknowledging that I knew it was illegal to vote twice. The poll worker noticed my ID. When I explained what it was in the Cyrillic alphabet, she burst into tears, apologized, and said she had goosebumps all over.
It was another blockbuster week, up over 6%. So far in October, we have gained +4.89%.My 2024 year-to-date performance is at +50.13%.The S&P 500 (SPY) is up +22.43%so far in 2024. My trailing one-year return reached a nosebleed +65.90. That brings my 16-year total return to +726.76%.My average annualized return has recovered to +52.56%.
With my Mad Hedge Market Timing Index at the 70 handles for the first time in five months, I am remaining cautious with a 70% cash and 30% long. I look for a small profit in (TSLA) to reduce risk. Two of my positions expired at their maximum profit point for (NEM) and (DHI) on Friday, October 18 options expiration.
Some 63 of my 70 round trips, or 90%, were profitable in 2023. Some 60 of 80 trades have been profitable so far in 2024, and several of those losses were really break-even. Some 16 out of the last 19 trade alerts were profitable. That is a success rate of +75.00%.
Try beating that anywhere.
Risk Adjusted Basis
Current Capital at Risk
Risk On
(TSLA) 11/$165-$175 call spread 10.00%
(JPM) 11/$195-$205 call spread10.00%
(GLD) 11/230-$235 call spread 10.00%
Risk Off
NO POSITIONS 0.00%
Total Net Position 30.00%
Total Aggregate Position 30.00%
Netflix Soars on Blockbuster Earnings, up 11% at the opening on a 5 million gain in subscribers. The company posted earnings per share of $5.40 for the period ended Sept. 30, higher than the $5.12 LSEG consensus estimate.
Crucially, Netflix saw momentum in its ad-supported membership tier, which surged 35% quarter over quarter. The streaming wars are over, and (NFLX) won. Buy (NFLX) on dips.
Silver is Ready to Break Out to the Upside after a year-long-range trade. The white metal is a predictor of a healthy recovery and a solar rebound. It’s a long overdue catch-up with (GLD). Buy (AGQ) on dips.
Apple China Sales Jump 20% on the new iPhone 16 launch. Both Apple and Huawei's (HWT.UL) latest smartphones went on sale in China on Sept. 20, underscoring intensifying competition in the world's biggest smartphone market, where the U.S. firm has been losing market share in recent quarters to domestic rivals. Buy (AAPL) on dips.
Taiwan Semiconductor Soars on Spectacular Earnings, dragging up the rest of the chip sector with it. The world's largest contract chipmaker raised its expectation for annual revenue growth and said sales from AI chips would account for mid-teen percentage of its full-year revenue. U.S.-listed TSMC shares rose nearly 9%, and if gains hold, the company's market capitalization would cross $1 trillion. Buy (NVDA) on dips.
Weekly Jobless Claims Fall. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 19,000 last week to a seasonally adjusted 241,000 for the week ended Oct. 12, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 260,000 claims for the latest week. Claims jumped to more than a one-year high in the prior week, attributed to Helene, which devastated Florida and large swathes of the U.S. Southeast in late September.
Morgan Stanley Announces Blowout Earnings, fueling a 32% profit jump for the third quarter. Revenue from the trading business rose 13%. That followed gains recorded by its biggest rivals as the market business lifted fortunes across the industry, and a steady rebound in investment banking fees increased dealmaking. The wealth unit generated revenue of $7.27 billion, higher than analysts’ expectations, with $64 billion in net new assets. The unit boosted its pretax margin to 28%, driven by growth in fee-based assets. Buy (MS) on dips.
Global EV Sales Up 30% in September, with the largest gains in China. Gains in the U.S. market have been lagging in anticipation of the Nov. 5 election. Chinese carmakers are seeking to grow their sales in the EU despite import duties of up to 45% and amid cooling global demand for electric cars. Chinese and European automakers were going head-to-head at the Paris Car Show on Monday. Buy (TSLA) on dips.
Dollar Hits Two Month High on rising US interest rates. Ten-year US Treasuries have risen from 3.55% to 4.12% since the September Nonfarm Payroll Report. A string of U.S. data has shown the economy to be resilient and slowing only modestly, while inflation in September rose slightly more than expected, leading traders to trim bets on large rate cuts from the Fed. Buy all foreign currencies on dips (FXA), (FXE), (FXB), (FXY).
S&P 500 Value Gain Hits $50 Trillion, since the 1982 bottom, which I remember well and is up 50X. The index hit a record high Wednesday and is trading Thursday at around 5770, up 21% so far in 2024. The index’s value is up sixfold since it stood at $8 trillion at year-end 2008, near the depth of the bear market during the financial crisis.
JP Morgan Delivers Blowout Earnings. Its stock, trading around $223, was on course for its biggest daily percentage gain in 1-1/2 years.
(JPM)'s investment-banking fees surged 31%, doubling guidance of 15% last month. Equities propelled trading revenue up 8%, exceeding an earlier 2% forecast. These earnings are consistent with the soft-landing narrative of modest U.S. economic growth. Buy (JPM) on dips.
My Ten-Year View
When we come out the other side of the recession, we will be perfectly poised to launch into my new American Golden Age or the next Roaring Twenties. The economy is decarbonizing, and technology hyper accelerating, creating enormous investment opportunities. The Dow Average will rise by 600% to 240,000 or more in the coming decade. The new America will be far more efficient and profitable than the old.
Dow 240,000, here we come!
On Monday, October 21 at 8:30 AM EST, nothing of note takes placeis out. On Tuesday, October 22 at 6:00 AM, the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index is out.
On Wednesday, October 23 at 11:00 AM, the Existing Home Sales is printed.
On Thursday, October 24 at 8:30 AM, the Weekly Jobless Claims are announced. We also get New Homes Sales.
On Friday, October 25 at 8:30 AM, the US Durable Goods Orders are announced. At 2:00 PM, the Baker Hughes Rig Count is printed.
As for me, I am headed out for early voting in Nevada this morning. It’s been a year since I came back from Ukraine badly wounded, so I thought I would recall my recollections from that time.
You know you’re headed into a war zone the moment you board the train in Krakow, Poland. There are only women and children headed for Kiev, plus a few old men like me. Men of military age have been barred from leaving the country since the Russians Invaded. That leaves about 8 million to travel to Ukraine from Western Europe to visit spouses and loved ones.
After a 15-hour train ride, I arrived at Kiev’s magnificent Art Deco station. I was met by my translator and guide, Alicia, who escorted me to the city’s finest hotel, the Premier Palace on T. Shevchenka Blvd. The hotel, built in 1909, is an important historic site as it was where the Czarist general surrendered Kiev to the Bolsheviks in 1919. No one in the hotel could tell me what happened to the general afterward.
Staying in the best hotel in a city run by Oligarchs does have its distractions. Thanks to the war, occupancy was about 10%. That didn’t keep away four heavily armed bodyguards from the lobby 24/7. Breakfast was well populated by foreign arms merchants. And for some reason, there are always a lot of beautiful women hanging around with nothing to do.
The population is definitely getting war-weary. Nightly air raids across the country and constant bombings take their emotional toll. Kiev’s Metro system is the world’s deepest and, at two cents a ride, the cheapest. It’s where the government hid out during the early days of the war. They perform a dual function as bomb shelters when the missile attacks become particularly heavy.
My Look Out Ukraine has duly announced every incoming Russian missile and its targeted neighborhood. The buzzing app kept me awake at night, so I turned it off. Let the missiles land where they may. For this reason, I reserved a south-facing suite and kept the curtains drawn to protect against flying glass.
The sound of the attacks was unmistakable. The anti-aircraft drones started with a pop, pop, pop until they hit a big 1,000-pound incoming Russian cruise missile, then you heard a big kaboom! Disarmed missiles that were duds are placed all over the city and are amply decorated with colorful comments about Putin.
The extent of the Russian scourge has been breathtaking, with an epic resource grab. The most important resource is people to make up for a Russian population growth that has been plunging for the last century. The Russians depopulated their occupied territory, sending adults to Siberia and children to orphanages to turn them into Russians. If this all sounds medieval, it is. Some 19,000 Ukrainian children have gone missing since the war started.
Everyone has their own atrocity story, almost too gruesome to repeat here. Suffice it to say that every Ukrainian knows these stories and will fight to the death to avoid the unthinkable happening to them. There will be no surrender.
It will be a long war.
Touring the children’s hospital in Kiev is one of the toughest jobs I ever undertook. Kids are there shredded by shrapnel, crushed by falling walls, and newly orphaned. I did what I could to deliver advanced technology and $10,000 in cash, but their medical system is so backward, maybe 30 years behind our own, that it couldn’t be employed. Still, the few smiles I was able to inspire made the trip worth it. This is the children’s hospital that was bombed a few months ago.
The hospital is also taking the overflow of patients from the military hospitals. One foreign volunteer from Sweden was severely banged up, a mortar shell landing yards behind him. He had enough shrapnel in him, some 250 pieces, to light up an ultrasound and had already been undergoing operations for months. It was amazing he was still alive.
To get to the heavy fighting, I had to take another train ride a further 15 hours east. You really get a sense of how far Hitler overreached in Russia in WWII. After traveling by train for 30 hours to get to Kherson, Stalingrad, where the German tide was turned, is another 700 miles east!
I shared a cabin with Oleg, a man of about 50 who ran a car rental business in Kiev with 200 vehicles. When the invasion started, he abandoned the business and fled the country with his family because they had three military-aged sons. He now works at a minimum-wage job in Norway and never expects to do better.
What the West doesn’t understand is that Ukraine is not only fighting the Russians but a Great Depression as well. Some tens of thousands of businesses have gone under because people save during war and also because 20% of their customer base has fled.
I visited several villages where the inhabitants had been completely wiped out. Only their pet dogs remained alive, which roved in feral starving packs. For this reason, my major issued me my own AK47. Seeing me heavily armed also gave the peasants a greater sense of security.
It’s been a long time since I’ve held an AK, which is a marvelous weapon. It’s it’s like riding a bicycle. Once you learned, you never forget.
I’ve covered a lot of wars in my lifetime, but this is the first fought by Millennials. They post their kills on their Facebook pages. Every army unit has a GoFundMe account where doners can buy them drones, mine sweepers, and other equipment.
Everyone is on their smartphones all day long, killing time, and units receive orders this way. But go too close to the front, and the Russians will track your signal and call in an artillery strike. The army had to ban new Facebook postings from the front for exactly this reason.
Ukraine has been rightly criticized for rampant corruption, which dates back to the Soviet era. Several ministers were rightly fired for skimming off government arms contracts to deal with this. When I tried to give $10,000 to the Children’s Hospital, they refused to take it. They insisted I send a wire transfer to a dedicated account to create a paper trail and avoid sticky fingers.
I will recall more memories from my war in Ukraine in future letters, but only if I have the heart to do so. They will also be permanently posted on the home page at www.madhedfefundtrader.com under the tab “War Diary”.
Donating $10,000 to the Children’s Hospital
On the Front at Crimea with a Dud Russian Missile
A Gift or Piroshkis from Local Peasants
One of 2,000 Destroyed Russian Tanks
The Battle of Kherson with my Unit
This Blown Bridge Blocked the Russians from Entering Kiev
Good Luck and Good Trading,
John Thomas
CEO & Publisher
The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader
https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png00april@madhedgefundtrader.comhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngapril@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-10-21 09:02:412024-10-21 12:00:25The Market Outlook for the Week Ahead, or Complacence is Running Rampant
“Market players are starting to become desensitized to the Armageddon, end-of-the-world stories,” said Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Wells Capital Management.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/Lady-Liberty.jpg218421Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2024-10-21 09:00:462024-10-21 11:59:18October 21, 2024 - Quote of the Day
You know, it's funny – just when I thought I had a handle on regular AI, the universe throws us this quantum curveball.
It’s like we’re living through the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle of investing: the more we know, the more we realize how unpredictable the future can be.
But that’s the game we’re in. Always moving, always changing, and always presenting new opportunities for those of us willing to look.
So, what's the deal with Quantum AI? Well, we're talking about a market that was worth a cool $239.4 million in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate of 32.40% from 2023 to 2033.
That means by the time we hit 2033, this market could be worth $3.9 billion. That's no chump change. And if you're wondering where the action's going to be, keep your eyes on the Asia Pacific region. They're gearing up to grow faster than my enthusiasm for a bull market.
Now, I know some of you are scratching your heads, wondering what the heck Quantum AI actually is. Let me break it down for you.
Let me break it down. We've been using computers to crunch numbers and solve problems for decades, right?
Well, Quantum AI is like giving those computers a turbo boost and a PhD in theoretical physics. It's basically the lovechild of quantum computing and artificial intelligence.
Here's how it works: traditional computers use bits, tiny on-off switches that are either 0 or 1. Quantum computers, however, use qubits. These qubits are like the magicians of the computing world—they can be 0, 1, or both at the same time.
Think of it as being able to be in New York and Tokyo simultaneously. This quantum superposition allows quantum computers to solve complex problems faster than ever.
When you apply this quantum horsepower to AI, you get a machine that can process data and run algorithms at speeds that make your latest smartphone look like a rotary dial phone. We're talking about tackling problems that would take classical computers centuries to solve.
But why should we care about this? Well, this isn't some far-off science fiction fantasy. Quantum AI is already starting to revolutionize industries faster than you can update your stock portfolio.
Take healthcare, for instance. Quantum AI could help us discover new drugs faster than a hypochondriac can Google their symptoms. It could simulate molecular structures so quickly that we might find cures for diseases we thought were incurable.
In finance, Quantum AI could create risk assessment models that make our current ones look like child's play. It could optimize investment portfolios better than a room full of Ivy League analysts running on caffeine.
For those interested in logistics, we're looking at supply chain optimizations that could make same-day delivery seem slow.
And in cybersecurity, Quantum AI could develop encryption methods so advanced that current security measures would seem like leaving your front door wide open.
Now, here's where things get particularly interesting. Google (GOOGL) — you know, that little search engine company — just invested a significant sum in a Boston-based company called QuEra Computing, a quantum computing firm spun out of Harvard and MIT.
They're keeping the exact amount under wraps, but it's described as "very meaningful." When Google starts writing checks, it's time to pay attention. Let me tell you what I know about this collaboration so far.
QuEra is doing something innovative with their approach to quantum computing. They're using rubidium atoms—yes, the stuff found in fireworks—and controlling them with lasers to create qubits.
Why is this a big deal? Well, it's like the difference between trying to build an ice sculpture in the desert versus in a freezer.
Traditional quantum computers use superconducting qubits that require ultra-cold temperatures to function—colder than outer space, in fact. It's expensive and not exactly practical.
But QuEra's method? It's more like your average Joe. It works at room temperature, no drama, no fuss.
This means you could potentially have a quantum computer that doesn't need its own liquid helium spa to keep cool. It's quantum computing for the masses, not just for labs with billion-dollar budgets.
Now, Google throwing its weight behind QuEra is like Warren Buffett deciding to mentor a promising startup. It's not just about the money - though I'm sure that doesn't hurt. It's about the brainpower.
You've got Google's quantum eggheads teaming up with QuEra's scientists. This is the kind of collaboration that could lead to breakthroughs faster than you can say "Schrödinger's cat."
But Google's not the only player in this quantum sandbox. The usual tech suspects are all over this like white on rice.
IBM (IBM), Microsoft (MSFT), and Amazon (AMZN) are heavily invested in quantum research. Don't overlook the newcomers either—IonQ (IONQ) is doing fascinating work with trapped ions, and Rigetti Computing (RGTI) is advancing superconducting processors.
So, what does all this mean for you? Now, I'm not telling you to go all-in on quantum stocks tomorrow. The truth is, like any new frontier, Quantum AI brings a bit of unpredictability, but that’s often where the biggest opportunities lie.
Still, if you're not at least considering how these players might fit into your portfolio, you might as well be investing in typewriter companies in the age of computers. I suggest you add these names to your watchlist and buy the dip.
https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png00Douglas Davenporthttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngDouglas Davenport2024-10-18 16:38:132024-10-18 16:38:13THE HEISENBERG UNCERTAINTY PRINCIPLE OF INVESTING
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