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Playing the Short Side with Vertical Bear Put Debit Spreads

For me, the glass is always half full, not half empty, and it’s usually darkest just before the dawn. After all, over the past 100 years, markets have risen 80% of the time, and that includes the Great Depression. However, every now and then, conditions arise where it is prudent to sell short, or make

How to Gain an Advantage with Parallel Trading

One of the most fascinating things I learned when I first joined the equity trading desk at Morgan Stanley during the early 1980s was how to parallel trade. A customer order would come in to buy a million shares of General Motors (GM), and what did the in-house proprietary trading book do immediately? It loaded

Why The "Underground" Economy is Growing So Fast

There is no doubt that the “underground” economy is growing. No, I’m not talking about violent crime, drug dealing, or prostitution. Those are all largely driven by demographics, which right now are at a low ebb. I’m referring to the portion of the economy that the government can’t see and therefore is not counted in

The Ultra Bull Case for Gold

I am constantly barraged with emails from gold bugs who passionately argue that their beloved metal is trading at a tiny fraction of its true value and that the barbaric relic is really worth $5,000, $10,000, or even $50,000 an ounce (GLD). They claim the move in the yellow metal we are seeing is only

The Market Outlook for the Week Ahead, or The Special No Confidence Issue

It’s official: Absolutely no one is confident in their long-term economic forecasts right now. I heard it from none other than the chairman of the Federal Reserve himself. The investment rule book has been run through the shredder. It has in fact been deleted. That explains a lot about how markets have been trading this

March 19 Biweekly Strategy Webinar Q&A

Below please find subscribers’ Q&A for the March 19 Mad Hedge Fund Trader Global Strategy Webinar, broadcast from Incline Village, NV. Q: I tried to get into ProShares Short S&P500 (SH), it seems pretty illiquid. How did you get in? A: Well, before I actually sent out the trade alert, I tested the liquidity of

Please Use My Free Database Search

The original purpose of this letter was to build a database of ideas to draw on in the management of my hedge fund. When a certain trade comes into play, I merely type in the symbol, name, currency, or commodity into the search box, and the entire fundamental argument in favor of that position pops

Profiting From America’s Demographic Collapse

Demographics is destiny. If you ignore it as an investor, you will be constantly behind the curve wondering why your performance is so bad. Get ahead of it, and people will think you are a genius. I figured all this out when I was about 20. I realized then, back in 1972, that if I

How to Handle the Friday, March 21 Options Expiration

Followers of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader alert service have the good fortune to own four in-the-money options positions that expire on Friday, March 21, and I just want to explain to the newbies how to best maximize their profits. These involve the: Risk On (NVDA) 3/$88-$90 call spread

The Market Outlook for the Week Ahead, or Sell First and Ask Questions Later

I have been learning a new language over the past few weeks (I already speak six). And like learning any new language, it has been a bumpy road. I remember a family dinner I had in Tuscany in 1968. The dessert was chocolate cake. I didn’t know how to say “cake” in Italian, so I

How to Handle the Friday February 21 Options Expiration

Followers of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader alert service have the good fortune to own three in-the-money options positions that expires on Friday, February 21, and I just want to explain to the newbies how to best maximize their profits. This involves the: Current Capital at Risk Risk On (NVDA) 2/$90-$95 call spread

And My Prediction Is . . .

Take those predictions, forecasts, and prognostications with so many grains of salt. They have a notorious track record for being completely wrong, even when made by the leading experts in their fields. In preparing for my autumn lecture series, I came across the following nuggets and thought I’d share them with you. There are some

The Market Outlook for the Week Ahead, or The Tale of Two Markets

While trading one market is hard enough, two is almost more than one can bear. In fact, we have all been trading two markets since 2025 began. On the up days, it appears that the indexes are about to break out of a tediously narrow trading range. The market’s inability to go down is proof

Revisiting the Great Depression

When I first arrived on Wall Street during the early 1980s, some of the old veterans who worked through the 1929 stock market crash were just retiring and passed their stories on to me before they left. One was my old friend, Sir John Templeton, founder of the Templeton funds, who often hosted me for

Exploring my New York Roots

While in New York waiting to board Cunard’s Queen Mary 2 to sail for Southampton, England, a few years ago, I decided to check out the Bay Ridge address near the Verrazano Bridge where my father grew up. I took a limo over to Brooklyn and knocked on the front door. I told the owner

The Market Outlook for the Week Ahead, or Back to Boot Camp

I have a new outlook for the US stock markets. The current government's economic policy reminds me a lot about the Marine Corps boot camp. Through harsh treatment and rigorous training, the Marines seek to destroy incoming recruits. They then spend 13 weeks rebuilding a new soldier from scratch who is obedient, respectful, follows orders,

A Note on Assigned Options, or Options Called Away

I just received an excited text message from an excited Concierge client. His short position in the (TSLA) February 2025 $540-$550 vertical bear put debit spread had just been called away. That meant he would receive the maximum profit a full 11 trading days before the February 21 option expiration. With the heightened volatility this

How to Join the Early Retirement Stampede

There is a new social movement taking place which you probably haven’t heard about. Increasing numbers of people, especially Millennials, are engineering their personal finances to make early retirement possible. I’m not talking about hanging it up at 60, 55, or even 50. I’m talking extreme early retirement, like 45, 40, or even 30! I

They’re Not Making Americans Anymore

You can count on a bear market hitting some time in 2038, one falling by at least 25%. Worse, there is almost a guarantee that a financial crisis, severe bear market, and possibly another Great Depression will take place no later than 2058 and would take the major indexes down by 50% or more. No,

Learning the Art of Risk Control

Now that you know how to make money in the market, I’m going to teach you how to hang on to it. There is no point in booking winning trades only to lose money by making careless beginner’s mistakes. So today, I am going to talk about risk control. The first goal of risk control

Beating the S&P 500

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My Battle of Britain tour

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From Our Blog

The Market Outlook for the Week Ahead, or Putin’s Dead End

Diary, Free Research, Newsletter

The current consensus for market strategists is that volatility will remain high. Please pinch me because I think I died and went to heaven. For every time the Volatility Index (VIX) tops $30, I make another 10%-15% for my followers. The bulk of market players are now obsessing whether we are entering a recession or

The Barbell Play with Berkshire Hathaway

Diary, Newsletter

It’s time to give myself a dope slap. I have been pounding the table all year about the merits of a barbell strategy, with equal weightings in technology and domestic recovery stocks. By owning both, you’ll always have something doing well as new cash flows bounce back and forth between the two sectors like a

Here’s an Easy Way to Play Artificial Intelligence

Tech Letter

Suppose there was an exchange-traded fund that focused on the single most important technology trend in the world today. You might think that I was smoking California's largest export (it's not grapes). But such a fund DOES exist. The Global X Robotics & Artificial Intelligence ETF (BOTZ) drops a gilt-edged opportunity into investors' laps as a

Legal Disclaimer

There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.

My Popular Articles on Wealth and Retirement

How to Join the Early Retirement Stampede

Diary, Homepage Posts, Newsletter

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Your Source For Winning Trade Alerts, Real Market Wisdom, and Global Economic Insights!

Join John Thomas and Top Industry Experts at The Mad Hedge Traders & Investors Summit | September 17-19, 2024

A Premier Gathering of Market Leaders and Visionary Investors

Elevate your trading and investment game with unparalleled guidance from the industry's finest.

Discover Cutting-Edge Strategies for 2024 and gain exclusive insights to sharpen your financial acumen.

Our Performance Speaks For Itself!

Beating the S&P 500

My Battle of Britain tour

If you want to match John’s incredible trading results please sign up here for FREE

From Our Blog

Here’s an Easy Way to Play Artificial Intelligence

What the Next Recession Will Look Like

The Five Frontrunners in the Race for a COVID-19 VACCINE

Get Ready to Take a Leap Back into Leaps

Trade Alert - (MSFT) - EXPIRATION

The Eight Worst Trades in History

Trading the New Apple in 2020

They're Not Making Americans Anymore

The Death of the Financial Advisor

Cyber Security is Only Just Getting Started

Legal Disclaimer

My Popular Articles on Wealth and Retirement

How to Join the Early Retirement Stampede

Become a Member Today!

Membership is limited as John provides in-depth support to each member and can only do SO much!

Membership Will NEVER Be This Low Again.. Today You Can Change Your Trading Future Forever.