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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Learn More About Me Than You Probably Want to Know

Diary, Newsletter

As you may imagine, the most interesting man in the world is impossible to shop for when it comes to Christmas and birthdays.

So, it was no surprise when I opened a box and found a DNA testing kit from 23 and Me. So, I spit into a small test tube to humor the kids, mailed it off, and forgot about it.

I have long been a keeper of the Thomas family history and legends, so it would be interesting to learn which were true and which were myths.

A month later, what I discovered was amazing.

For a start, I am related to Louis the 16th, the last Bourbon king of France who was beheaded after the 1789 revolution.

I am a direct descendant from Otzi the Iceman who is 5,000 years old and was recently discovered frozen in an Alpine glacier. He currently resides in mummified form in an Italian museum.

Oh, one more. The reason I don’t have any hair on my back is that I carry 346 gene fragments that I inherited directly from a Neanderthal. Yes, I am part caveman, although past girlfriends suspected as much.

There were other conclusions.

I have a higher than average probability of getting prostate cancer, advanced macular degeneration (my mother had it), celiac disease, and melanoma.

The service also offered to introduce me to 1,107 close relatives around the world who I didn’t know, mostly in New York, California, and Florida.

The French connection I already knew about. During the 16th century, my ancestors rebelled against the French kings over the non-payment of taxes and were exiled to Louisiana. Fleeing a malaria epidemic, they moved up the Mississippi River to St. Louis and stayed there for 200 years. When gold was discovered in California in 1849, they joined a wagon train west. We have been here ever since.

I am half Italian and have birth certificates going back to 1800 to prove it. But 23 and Me says that I am only 40.7% Italian (see table below). It turns out that your genes show not only where you came from, but also who invaded your home country since the beginning of time.

In Italy’s case that would include the ancient Greeks, Vikings, Arabs, the Normans, French, Germans, and the Spanish, thus making up my other 9.3%. Your genes also reflect the slaves your ancestors owned, for obvious reasons, as well as many of the servants who may have worked for them.

It gets better.

All modern humans are decended from a single primordial “Eve” who lived in Eastern Africa 180,000 years ago. Of the thousands of homo sapiens who probably lived at that time, the genes of no other human made it into the modern age. We  are all decended from a single “Adam” who lived 275,000 years ago. Obviously, the two never met, debunking some modern conventions.

Around 53,000 years ago, my intrepid ancestors cross the Red Sea to a lush jungle in the Sinai Penninsula probably pursuing abundant game. 53,000 years ago, they moved on the vast grasslands of the Cental Asian Steppes. As the last Ice Age retreated, they moved into the warmer climes of South Europe. We have been there ever since.

23 and Me was founded in 2006 by Anne Wojcicki, wife of Google founder Sergei Brin. It is owned today by her and a few other partners. Its name is based on the fact that humans' entire DNA code is found on 23 chromosomes.

23 and Me and other competitors like Ancestry.com, MyHeritage, and Living DNA have sparked a DNA boom that has led to once unimaged economic and social consequences. DNA promises to be for the 21st century what electricity was to the 20th century. The investment consequences are amazing.

Talk about unintended consequences with a turbocharger.

A common ancestor going back to the early 1800s enabled Sacramento police to capture the Golden State killer. Unsolved for 40 years, it took a week for them to find him after a DNA sample was sent to a DNA database.

Thirty and 40-year cold cases are now being solved on a weekly basis. Long ago kidnapped children are being reunited with parents after decades of separation.

California just froze all executions. That’s because DNA evidence showed that approximately 30% of all capital case convictions were of innocent men. That was enough for me to change my own view on the death penalty. The error rate was just too high. Dozens of men around the country have been freed after new DNA evidence surfaced, some after serving 30 years or more in prison.

23 and Me had some medical advice for me as well. They strongly recommended that I get tested for diabetes and high blood pressure as these maladies are rife among my ancestors. They even name the specific guilty gene and haploid group.

This explains why major technology companies, like Amazon (AMZN) and Apple (AAPL), are pouring billions of dollars into genetic research.

I have long had a personal connection with DNA research. I worked on the team that sequenced the first ever string of DNA at UCLA in 1974. It was groundbreaking work. We obtained our raw DNA from Dr. James Watson of Harvard who, along with Francis Crick, was the first to discover its three-dimensional structure. As for my UCLA professor, Dr. Winston Salser, he went on to found Amgen (AMGN) in 1980 and became a billionaire.

The developments that are taking place today then seemed to us like science fiction that was hundreds of years into the future. To see the paper created by this work, please click here.
 
As research into DNA advances, it is about to pervade every aspect of our lives. Do you have a high probability of getting a disease that costs a million dollars to cure and is counting on getting health insurance? Think again. That may well bring forward single-payer national healthcare for the US, as only the government could absorb that kind of liability.

And if you can only hang on a few years, you might live forever. That’s when DNA-based monoclonal antibodies and gene editing are about to cure all major human diseases. DNA is about to become central to your physical health and your financial health as well.

To learn more about 23 and Me please visit their website here.

Maybe the next time I visit the Versaille Palace outside of Paris, I should ask for a set of keys now that I’m a relative? Unfortunately, it’s much more likely that I’ll get the keys to my Neanderthal ancestor’s cave.

 

 

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/23-and-me-3.png 358 283 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-02-12 04:06:272020-02-11 17:39:38Learn More About Me Than You Probably Want to Know
MHFTR

Testimonial

Diary, Newsletter

I've been reading your blog for a while and found it a helpful beacon in a sea of confusing and contradictory information as I try and make sense of the world (and try and make money from sense!).

Kind regards,
Toby
London, England

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/John-with-wine-glass-story-3-image-e1526508431419.jpg 273 250 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2020-02-12 04:02:352020-02-11 17:33:43Testimonial
MHFTR

February 12, 2020 - Quote of the Day

Diary, Newsletter, Quote of the Day

"The Obamacare website had technical issues all week because of too much web traffic. You can't campaign on the fact that too many people don't have health care, and then be surprised that millions don't have health care. That's like 1-800-FLOWERS being caught off guard by Valentine's Day," said a comedian on Saturday Night Live.

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/Dead-flowers-quote-of-the-day-e1526507959892.jpg 266 200 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2020-02-12 04:00:182020-02-11 17:35:15February 12, 2020 - Quote of the Day
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Quote of the Day - February 13, 2020

Diary, Newsletter, Quote of the Day

“The bubble is in the bond market, not the stock market,” said Leon Cooperman, CEO of Omega Advisors, an original investor in my 1990s hedge fund.

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/leon-copperman.png 272 410 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-02-12 04:00:082020-02-12 19:36:37Quote of the Day - February 13, 2020
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

February 11, 2020

Diary, Newsletter

Global Market Comments
February 10, 2020
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(THE MAD HEDGE FUND TRADER’S FAVORITE ONLINE BROKER)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-02-11 04:04:492020-02-10 18:26:54February 11, 2020
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

February 10, 2020

Diary, Newsletter

Global Market Comments
February 10, 2020
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, or BATTLING THE CORONAVIRUS),
(SPY), (CCL), (RCL), (WYNN), (DAL), (VIX), (VXX)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-02-10 08:04:442020-02-10 08:12:19February 10, 2020
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

The Market Outlook for the Week Ahead, or Battling the Coronavirus

Diary, Newsletter

I am writing this to you from the first-class cabin of Quantas Airlines on the nonstop flight from Melbourne, Australia to San Francisco, a 14-hour flight. While my flight from the US to the Land Down Under was packed, the return was half empty, great for free upgrades.

It has been a daunting day. I was originally scheduled to transfer on my flight from Perth to Sydney. But my plane there was found to be contaminated with Coronavirus and had to be decontaminated. I quickly rerouted.

I ended up sitting next to a research doctor who worked for San Francisco based-Gilead Sciences (GILD) and was returning from Wuhan, China, the epicenter of the virus. Since all flights from China to the US are now banned, he had to route his return home via Australia.

What he told me was alarming.

The Chinese are wildly understating the spread of the Coronavirus by perhaps 90% to minimize embarrassment to the government, which kept the outbreak secret for a full six months.

Bodies are piling up outside of hospitals faster than they can be buried. Police are going door to door arresting victims and placing them in gigantic quarantine centers. Every covered public space in the city is filled with beds and the roads are empty. Smaller cities and villages have set up barriers to bar outsiders.

He expected it would be many months before the pandemic peaked. It won’t end until the number of deaths hits the tens of thousands in China and at least the hundreds in the US.

The good news is that Gilead Sciences has an antiviral agent it developed for the other Coronaviruses, MERS and SARS, years ago which may be effective against the present epidemic. The company has already sent a planeload of the drug to China for immediate testing, which my new friend escorted.

The world has learned a lot since the West African Ebola outbreak of 2013. The Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovation (CEPI) set up in response to that disease is now leading the charge against Corona.

A lab in Australia was able to isolate the virus in a month. The AIDS virus took ten years. It only required another day to sequence the genome. That has greatly shortened the time for the development of a vaccine and a cure. It will take a year to mass produce enough vaccine to inoculate the world. That will be too late to save the many in China who have already perished.

Needless to say, the impact on the global economy will be immense. As we learned from the trade war, take China out of the equation and many things don’t work anymore.

The country’s GDP growth rate is expected to plunge from 6% to 2% this quarter, and possibly zero. Factories have closed, disrupting supply chains globally. The car industry is most affected, with Hyundai in South Korea already shutting down production for lack of parts.

Travel and tourism shares, like airlines (DAL), casinos (WYNN), and cruise lines (CCL), (RCL) have also been hard hit.

US stocks are taking notice, but slowly. It seems that massive Quantitive Easing by the Federal Reserve is enough to head off even a global pandemic, at least for now. This will not last. We have already seen one 600-point down day and a (VIX) spike to $21. There will be more.

Despite the fact that we may be facing the end of the world, the Mad Hedge Trader Alert Service managed to catapult to new all-time highs.

My long volatility positions I picked up when the Volatility Index (VIX), (VXX) was a lowly $12, brought in a double or a triple for most holders in a mere two weeks.

My Global Trading Dispatch performance rose to a new high at +358.96% for the past ten years. My trailing one-year return rose to +48.59%. We closed out January with a respectable +3.11% profit. My ten-year average annualized profit ground back up to +35.31%. 

All eyes will be focused on Corona, the virus, not the beer. The weekly economic data are virtually irrelevant now.

On Monday, February 10 at 1:00 PM, US Consumer Inflation Expectations are out.

On Tuesday, February 11 at 12:00 PM, JOLTS Job Openings for December are released.

On Wednesday, February 12, at 12:00 PM, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell testifies in front of congress.

On Thursday, February 13 at 8:30 AM, Weekly Jobless Claims come out. US Core Inflation for January is published.

On Friday, February 14 at 10:30 AM, Retail Sales for January are printed. The Baker Hughes Rig Count follows at 2:00 PM.

As for me, after my epic voyage home, I’ll be catching up on my sleep, dealing with the 16 hours of jet lag from Western Australia.

Good luck and good trading.

John Thomas
CEO & Publisher
The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/john-thomas-africa.png 420 595 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-02-10 08:02:362020-05-11 14:22:03The Market Outlook for the Week Ahead, or Battling the Coronavirus
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

February 7, 2020

Diary, Newsletter

Global Market Comments
February 7, 2020
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(MY 20 RULES FOR TRADING FOR 2020)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-02-07 04:04:372020-02-07 01:31:35February 7, 2020
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

February 6, 2020

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
February 6, 2020
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(HOW TO FIND A GREAT OPTIONS TRADE)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-02-06 04:04:562020-02-05 15:15:51February 6, 2020
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

February 5, 2020

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
February 5, 2020
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(A NOTE ON OPTIONS CALLED AWAY),
(MSFT), (TLT), (BA), (GOOGL), (SPY)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-02-05 04:04:522020-02-05 10:40:18February 5, 2020
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