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From Our Blog

The Market Outlook for the Week Ahead, or Putin’s Dead End

Diary, Free Research, Newsletter

The current consensus for market strategists is that volatility will remain high. Please pinch me because I think I died and went to heaven. For every time the Volatility Index (VIX) tops $30, I make another 10%-15% for my followers. The bulk of market players are now obsessing whether we are entering a recession or

The Barbell Play with Berkshire Hathaway

Diary, Newsletter

It’s time to give myself a dope slap. I have been pounding the table all year about the merits of a barbell strategy, with equal weightings in technology and domestic recovery stocks. By owning both, you’ll always have something doing well as new cash flows bounce back and forth between the two sectors like a

Here’s an Easy Way to Play Artificial Intelligence

Tech Letter

Suppose there was an exchange-traded fund that focused on the single most important technology trend in the world today. You might think that I was smoking California's largest export (it's not grapes). But such a fund DOES exist. The Global X Robotics & Artificial Intelligence ETF (BOTZ) drops a gilt-edged opportunity into investors' laps as a

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There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.

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Making Volatility Your Friend

With the Volatility Index back down to a bargain of $16, I am getting deluged with emails from readers asking if it is time to start hedging portfolios one more time and buying the iPath S&P 500 VIX Short Term Futures ETN (VXX). The answer is not yet, but soon, possibly very soon. And here

The ABCs of the VIX

I am one of those cheapskates who buy Christmas ornaments by the bucket load from Costco in January for ten cents on the dollar because my 11-month theoretical return on capital comes close to 1,000%. I also like buying flood insurance in the middle of the summer drought, when the forecast in California is for

A Refresher Course at Short Selling School

I’m not necessarily advocating a short sale here after markets have lost a staggering $10 trillion in market cap, from $50 trillion down to $40 trillion. But a single tweet could trigger a 5% rip-your-face-off rally at any time and only then can you have another shot at betting the market will continue its downtrend.

The Market Outlook for the Week Ahead, or Trump Declares War on the World

I often get asked why I am still working after 55 years in the stock market. With five customers calling me this morning to thank me for saving their retirement funds, you might understand why. It is now clear that in retrospect and with the wisdom of 20/20 hindsight, corporate America flipped the switch on

April 4 Biweekly Strategy Webinar Q&A

Below please find subscribers’ Q&A for the April 2 Mad Hedge Fund Trader Global Strategy Webinar, broadcast from Incline Village, NV. Q: Why are there days when both bonds and interest rates are going up? A: Well, there is a tug-of-war going on in the bond market. When recession fears are the dominant theme of

A Note on Assigned Options, or Options Called Away

I just received an excited text message from an excited Concierge client. His long position in the (NVDA) April 17 2025 $90-$95 vertical bull call debit spread had just been called away. That meant he would receive the maximum profit a full 10 trading days before the April 17 option expiration. Whoever called away the

Revisiting the First Silver Bubble

With a new bull market in silver (SIL) now underway, I thought I’d delve back into the ancient past to the last major bubble in the white metal. If you like gold, you absolutely have to love silver. That’s because the white metal has a much higher beta than its yellow cousin, both of which

The Market Outlook for the Week Ahead, or Stagflation is On!

There is no doubt that the data released out on Friday were a complete disaster for stock investors. The Dow Average futures posted a 1,000-point swing, from up 200 in the overnight markets to down 800 intraday. Specifically, the Consumer Price Index came in at a hot 0.4%, which is 4.8% annualized. Five-year Inflation Expectations,

How to Gain an Advantage with Parallel Trading

One of the most fascinating things I learned when I first joined the equity trading desk at Morgan Stanley during the early 1980s was how to parallel trade. A customer order would come in to buy a million shares of General Motors (GM), and what did the in-house proprietary trading book do immediately? It loaded

Why The "Underground" Economy is Growing So Fast

There is no doubt that the “underground” economy is growing. No, I’m not talking about violent crime, drug dealing, or prostitution. Those are all largely driven by demographics, which right now are at a low ebb. I’m referring to the portion of the economy that the government can’t see and therefore is not counted in

The Ultra Bull Case for Gold

I am constantly barraged with emails from gold bugs who passionately argue that their beloved metal is trading at a tiny fraction of its true value and that the barbaric relic is really worth $5,000, $10,000, or even $50,000 an ounce (GLD). They claim the move in the yellow metal we are seeing is only

The Market Outlook for the Week Ahead, or The Special No Confidence Issue

It’s official: Absolutely no one is confident in their long-term economic forecasts right now. I heard it from none other than the chairman of the Federal Reserve himself. The investment rule book has been run through the shredder. It has in fact been deleted. That explains a lot about how markets have been trading this

March 19 Biweekly Strategy Webinar Q&A

Below please find subscribers’ Q&A for the March 19 Mad Hedge Fund Trader Global Strategy Webinar, broadcast from Incline Village, NV. Q: I tried to get into ProShares Short S&P500 (SH), it seems pretty illiquid. How did you get in? A: Well, before I actually sent out the trade alert, I tested the liquidity of

Please Use My Free Database Search

The original purpose of this letter was to build a database of ideas to draw on in the management of my hedge fund. When a certain trade comes into play, I merely type in the symbol, name, currency, or commodity into the search box, and the entire fundamental argument in favor of that position pops

Profiting From America’s Demographic Collapse

Demographics is destiny. If you ignore it as an investor, you will be constantly behind the curve wondering why your performance is so bad. Get ahead of it, and people will think you are a genius. I figured all this out when I was about 20. I realized then, back in 1972, that if I

How to Handle the Friday, March 21 Options Expiration

Followers of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader alert service have the good fortune to own four in-the-money options positions that expire on Friday, March 21, and I just want to explain to the newbies how to best maximize their profits. These involve the: Risk On (NVDA) 3/$88-$90 call spread

The Market Outlook for the Week Ahead, or Sell First and Ask Questions Later

I have been learning a new language over the past few weeks (I already speak six). And like learning any new language, it has been a bumpy road. I remember a family dinner I had in Tuscany in 1968. The dessert was chocolate cake. I didn’t know how to say “cake” in Italian, so I

How to Handle the Friday February 21 Options Expiration

Followers of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader alert service have the good fortune to own three in-the-money options positions that expires on Friday, February 21, and I just want to explain to the newbies how to best maximize their profits. This involves the: Current Capital at Risk Risk On (NVDA) 2/$90-$95 call spread

And My Prediction Is . . .

Take those predictions, forecasts, and prognostications with so many grains of salt. They have a notorious track record for being completely wrong, even when made by the leading experts in their fields. In preparing for my autumn lecture series, I came across the following nuggets and thought I’d share them with you. There are some

The Market Outlook for the Week Ahead, or The Tale of Two Markets

While trading one market is hard enough, two is almost more than one can bear. In fact, we have all been trading two markets since 2025 began. On the up days, it appears that the indexes are about to break out of a tediously narrow trading range. The market’s inability to go down is proof

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