The media focused with laser-like intensity on Janet Yellen?s move towards a decidedly more hawkish position on interest rates at her August 26th Jackson Hole speech.

However, they missed her most important comments.

I didn?t.

I am specifically referring to her speculation about what forms Fed stimulus will take during the next recession, whenever that is. After all, that was the principal topic at the confab of central bankers, economists, and academics.

Fed watchers were suitably awed by the prospect of another $2 trillion of quantitative easing that was promised.

And remember, this will take place only after the Fed moves US interest rates to negative numbers, something I expect to take place within the next three years.

But what really caught my attention was her reference to widespread purchases of ?alternative assets.? This is the dog whistle for government buying of US corporate bonds and stocks.

There is a long history of governments investing in their own stock markets during times of financial duress, some of which I have been directly involved with.

During the Asian financial crisis in 1997, initially triggered by the crash of the Thai Baht, the Hong Kong stock market collapsed to the point where several of the colony?s leading companies were at risk of going under.

With the British handover back to China imminent, capital fled the crown colony by the boatload.

Right at the market bottom, the government stepped in with a $15 billion support operation that focused on the largest share listings. Over the following 18 months, the Hang Seng share prices index soared by an incredible 176%.

The government then unloaded its entire holdings through a convertible bond offering with a 5% premium right before the 2000 dotcom bubble bust.

A more recent example can be found in the Bank of Japan?s expansion of its hyper aggressive quantitative easing in March, 2015 to include $60 billion worth of equity backed exchange traded funds.

The program was so ambitious that the government is now the largest shareholder in the top 50 Japanese companies.

Here the results were much less impressive. The Nikkei Index has so far fallen -28%.

But Japan also has faced gale force headwinds in the form of a relentlessly appreciating Japanese yen during this time, which is always bad news for Japanese stocks. Higher prices always mean fewer exports and even fewer profits.

Other countries buy stocks when their bond markets are too small and illiquid for central banks to have any real influence on the economy, such as in the Czech Republic.

And here?s another hint for you. What was Fed vice chairman Stanley Fischer?s last job? He was governor of the Bank of Israel, another country where the central bank has been active in soaking up equities.

So which shares will America?s central bank buy? You can count on the S&P 500 (SPY) shares to be the principal target.

How much could the Fed pour into our $23 trillion stock market? $1 trillion is doable, but it could be more, depending on the severity of the next recession.

And what about the market impact? As the Hong Kong and Japanese experiences have shown, long-term fundamentals are always a much more important driver of equity valuations than any short-term liquidity events.

Even the Fed can only put so much lipstick on a pig.

You could expect a nice ?rip your face off? short covering rally worth 5% when the headline hits.

Believe it or not, this is not a new idea. The George W. Bush administration proposed privatizing Social Security during the 2000s.

If carried out, it would have placed a major portion of our retirement funds into equities just before the 2008 financial crisis and stock market crash.

Thank goodness for small mercies that Bush never got the votes in congress to pull this off.

Future quantitative easing might not be necessary if Clinton wins the House of Representatives in November.

That would end the logjam in Washington, and open the way for $2 trillion in infrastructure spending, which the country sorely needs.

The Fed can then finally put its QE policy to bed, although it will take another eight years for it to run down it?s $3.4 trillion in existing Treasury bond holdings.

But at this point, there is only a 50-50 chance that Clinton can pull off this electoral trifecta.

She is overwhelming ahead in every battleground state (NV, AZ, CO, IA, WI, MI, OH, GA, FL, PA, NH, NC), in some cases by double digits which will give her a huge win in the Electoral College.

But because of gerrymandering in several key states, Clinton needs to win 57% of the national vote to win a majority of House seats.

Ask me again in November how doable this really is. I?ve only been watching presidential elections for a half century, so I?m still getting the hang of it.

Still, given my prediction that US stocks could rise by 17 times over the next 20 years, government purchases of stocks might not be such a bad idea.

It certainly would have merit if they step into the market after a long valuation slide. Price earnings multiples bottomed out at 9X in 2009 during the financial crisis, compared to 20X today.

?It could then unwind its positions going into the next bubble top.

Buy low, sell high, it sounds like a plan to me. It is a performance that could put the old Hong Kong colony government?s market timing to shame.

In fact, it could be the best investment the government ever makes.

And if the Fed is buying stocks, the European Central Bank won?t be far behind, if it doesn?t get there first. The ECB is already near to exhausting markets with bond purchases as part of its own QE.

Stocks could be the new, rising asset class of not just the US, Japan, and Europe, but ALL central banks.

Did someone just mention the term ?global synchronized bull market?

To learn the fundamental economic arguments behind my bullish two decade forecasts, please read my just released book, ?Stocks to Buy for the Coming Roaring Twenties?.

Future US Stock Investor?

I?m presently dancing to the song ?Believe? by Cher, my former next-door neighbor, and the top hit of 1999 that dominated the airwaves.

I am not particularly a fan of late twentieth century music, even by Cher.

However, I definitely think the markets are replaying the years 1998-1999.

That means stocks keep rising for a least another one to two years on the back of improving corporate earnings, ultra low interest rates, and expanding price/earnings multiple.

Dow 21,000 is a chip shot, as is S&P 500 2,400. The great bull market will extend well into 2018 and maybe even 2019.

You heard it here first.

Much more fascinating, to me anyway, were asset class reactions to the August Non Farm Payroll released on Friday.

There is no doubt that the 151,111 print was a big disappointment, well below the 180,000 consensus forecast.

The headline unemployment rate stayed at a decade low 4.9%, while the structural unemployment U-6 fell to 9.7%.

Food Services picked up +35,000 jobs, Social Assistance +22,000, and Professional and Tech Services +20,000. Manufacturing lost -14,000, typical of summer layoffs.
?
This should have triggered a major ?RISK ON? move, as the chance of a Fed rate hike on in September was totally obliterated, and interest rates will remain lower for longer.

However, after the first five minutes, we saw a decidedly ??RISK OFF? move ensue.

Stocks (SPY), bonds (TLT), foreign currencies (FXY), (FXE) and copper (CU) all fell in unison. Oil (USO) rose, but it seems to be living in it's own, geopolitically driven world now.

So, even though the short-term risk of a rate rise is now gone, and maybe even a medium term tightening in December, markets seems to be focused on the long term direction of rates which is definitely upward.

Of course, rates will rise so slowly as to be imperceptible, because deflation is still rampant, globally so. So that keeps the bull market in stocks alive and well. This one could run for a record 8-9 years.

Talk about getting to ?Have your cake and eat it too.?

By the way, those who took my advice to sell short the Treasury bond market with my last two Trade Alerts are home free.

We are now probing the bottom end of a two-month trading range and have only nine days left until the September 16 expiration. I just checked prices and we are marking at 70% of the maximum potential profit in our last position.

Well done!

Thanks to Labor Day, we have a mercifully shortened week, with the major economic data reports behind us.

On Tuesday, September 6 at 8:30 AM EST we receive Gallup Consumer Spending which should continue moving from strength to strength. Never underestimate Americans? willingness to spend money, especially on credit.

On Wednesday, September 7 at 10:00 AM we see the Fed Beige Book which will confirm a continuing slow 2% growth rate.

On Thursday, September 8 at 8:30 AM EST the Weekly Jobless Claims should confirm that employment remains at decade highs. We will also get a series of Treasury auctions which should be weak, given today?s market response.

On Friday, September 9 at 1:00 PM EST we wind up with the Baker Hughes Rig Count. Worryingly, the trend has been up for the past two months, driving oil prices lower.

Overall, I expect all markets to continue to trend sideways in narrow ranges until the next Fed Open Market Committee Meeting on September 20.

I throw in the chart below that has been circulating on the Internet today showing where we are with the ?Buffet Indicator.? This is the measure of the value of corporate equities to nominal GDP.

Although it is still a few years off, it is approaching the 2000 bubble top high. Of course, near zero interest rates skew everything, so the next high should be much loftier than the last one.

You heard that here first too.

Is that ?Believe? I hear ringing in my ears again?

Pick your poison!

Are the Nineties Making a Comeback?

I have been on one heck of a hot streak, and boy do I like it!

What a difference a vacation makes.

Since I returned from my summer headquarters in Zermatt, Switzerland on July 28, every single Trade Alert I have sent you has been profitable.

August was a perfect month, taking in a lip smacking 7.52%. In fact, 91% of my recommendation have proved profitable since June 9, nearly three months ago.

Was it summiting the Matterhorn for the fourth time that did it? Or perhaps it was floating down the Rhine through Basel, kept afloat only by my wicklefische, which I had bought at a discount.

I bet a day spent at the historic, clothing optional Friedrichsbad steam baths in Baden Baden had something to do with it.

Whatever the reason, my subscribers are happy. Those who became members from August onward think I?m some sort of genius.

I began with the assumption that financial markets would remain trapped in narrow ranges for the summer.

The markets are going to new all time highs on the back of a Clinton win in November. But they had to take a break first.

What we are getting is not a ?price correction,? but a ?time correction" whereby prices grind sideways before breaking out to the upside.

Whether that will happen before or after the September 20 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is anyone?s guess.

So I sold short the S&P 500 (SPY), the Japanese yen (FXY), (YCS), the Euro (FXE), (EUO), and Treasury bonds (TLT), (TBT).

For good measure, I also bought the Volatility Index (VIX) while it was trading at a decade low. Every position turned profitable.

This brings my 2016 year to date performance up to 14.01%, compared to 5.85% for the S&P 500. The trailing 12 month return is 21.69%

My six year return now reaches an eye popping 205.69%, delivering an average annualized return of 35.77%.

These are numbers that any financial advisor, hedge fund manager or retiree trading from home would kill for.

Those who have made the effort to wake up early every morning and read my witty and incisive prose have an impressive row of notches on their bedpost to show for their effort.

My groundbreaking trade mentoring service was first launched in 2010. Thousands of subscribers now earn a full time living solely from my Trade Alerts, a development of which I am immensely proud.

Some 50% of my clients are over 50 and managing their own retirement funds, fleeing the shoddy and expensive services provided by Wall Street. The balance is institutional investors, hedge funds, and professional financial advisors.

The Mad Hedge Fund Trader seeks to level the playing field for the average Joe. Looking at the testimonials that come in every day, I?d say I'm accomplishing that goal.

Quite a few followers were able to move fast enough to cash in on my trading recommendations. To read the plaudits yourself, please go to my testimonials page by clicking here .

Our business is booming, so I am plowing profits back in to enhance our added value for you.

And now for the rest of the year.

I can?t wait!

John Thomas
Publisher and CEO
The Mad Hedge Fund Trader

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