We have snatched 92% of the potential profit in the Currency Shares Euro Trust (FXE) September, 2014 $133-$135 in-the-money bear put spread, riding the Euro (FXE) down on the short side, from $1.33 down to $1.30.
The risk/reward of continuing with such a large position is no longer justified.
So I am going to reduce my overweight position down from 20% back to a more normal 10%. If you are similarly overweight the ProShares Ultra Short Euro ETF (EUO), I would also be lightening up, retuning to a normal weighting there as well.
I have not suddenly fallen in love with the beleaguered continental currency. I think we are headed towards $1.27, $1.20, and eventually $1.00. This is just a short-term tactical move.
That way, if by some miracle, we get a two-cent rally in the Euro, I will have plenty of dry powder to reload with and add more shorts.
The big event of the weekend was European Central Bank President, Mario Draghi, ramping up his war on his own currency.
On Friday evening, after the markets closed and traders were long gone for the Hamptons, Bal Harbor, or Napa Valley (oops), Draghi ramped up his rhetoric, warning that he would use ?all available tools? to spur Europe?s economy. This is central banker talk for throwing down the gauntlet at the feet of the monetary hawks (read Germans).
He then threw the fat on the fire, opining that the recent decline an inflation expectations were a concern, and this was a topic for the coming September 4 ECB meeting. Translation: this is a central banker?s equivalent to giving the hawks the middle finger salute, and then putting the pedal to the metal on the easing front.
The bottom line for all of this is that the ECB is almost certain to cut Euro interest rates next week. As interest rates differentials are the primary driver of foreign exchange markets, this is great news for the greenback and terrible news for the Euro.
After that, we may get a small rally in the Euro, as short sellers, like me, take profits. This has been the pattern with other Euro interest rates reductions in the past. That is the rally I want to resell into.
You can expect this pattern to continue until Europe solves its structural monetary problems, which will take years. The current flawed system dramatically undervalues Germany?s currency, while overvaluing the currencies of Italy, Spain, Portugal, and Greece.
This is why the German economy is healthy, while everyone else?s economies suck. Without the Euro, the old deutschmark would be double or triple what it was, demolishing the country?s massive export business. In the meantime, the other countries would be devaluing their own currencies like crazy.
We caught the entire reaction to Draghi?s verbiage at this morning?s opening, with the Euro gapping down a full half-cent against the dollar. The stop loss selling was severe.
I wish all my trades were this easy. Since I doubled up on the short side, the Euro has been in a complete free fall. European dithering has been one of the lowest risk bets of 2014.
That said, I think I?ll get back to cleaning up my earthquake damage.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/Falling-100-Bills-Euros.jpg249430Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2014-08-26 01:04:512014-08-26 01:04:51Why I?m Covering Some Euro Shorts
Wow! There is nothing like being tossed out of bed at 3:20 AM by a massive earthquake! It really gets the juices flowing. I was really praying that the wooden roof creaking and groaning above was not about to land on my head.
After hurriedly getting dressed, I grabbed a flashlight and ran downstairs to check the gas lines and water mains. So far, so good. Compliant with state law, my water heaters are strapped to the wall, so they were OK.
It looks like I escaped the biggest earthquake in Northern California in 25 years with a mere six foot long horizontal crack in the stucco on my home.
The earthquake was devastating for the wine industry, where owners today are mopping up the wine spilled from millions of smashed bottles. Some 200 buildings have been ?red tagged?, cited by city inspectors as unsafe for habitation.
Every road going into and out of Napa buckled, or was cut in half by giant cracks. Some unlucky drivers drove right into the buckles in the darkness, totaling their cars.
There were more than 90 water main breaks and 50 gas lines sheared, which meant that fire engines had insufficient water to fight fires. The unfortunate residents of one mobile home park saw their residences burn down almost immediately.
I spent the day next to my cell phone, waiting for notice of an emergency call up as a rescue pilot. When the ?big one? comes, I am set up to fly into devastated areas to transfer patients to other hospitals.
But the call fortunately never came. Napa?s Queen of the Valley Medical Center was able to handle the 200 injuries that arrived, mostly from flying glass.
We all knocked on wood that the damage had not been greater. If the earthquake had happened just eight hours later, the sidewalks packed with thousands of peak season tourists would have been showered with glass. Decades of retrofitting bridges at enormous expense paid off, as all passed inspection nicely.
One interesting wrinkle was that the University of California at Berkeley?s earthquake warning system worked, giving a ten second heads up, at least to those who were awake at 3:20 AM. Expect to hear a lot more about this in the future.
Many thanks for the emails I received from around the world voicing concern for my safety. It takes more than a lousy 6.0 earthquake to do in this trader in.
We are all keeping our fingers crossed that this is not the prelude to a much bigger quake, which sometimes happens.
Hey, why have waves suddenly appeared in my coffee cup...?
The Price of Living in the Golden State
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/Napa-Valley-Earthquake-8-2014.jpg264447Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2014-08-26 01:03:532014-08-26 01:03:53That was Some Shaker!
Featured Trade: (MY END 2014 STOCK MARKET FORECAST), (SPY), (ALL I WANT TO DO IS RETIRE), (TAKE A LOOK AT OCCIDENTAL PETROLEUM), (OXY), (BP), (OIL), (UNG),? (NSANY), (XOM)
SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)
Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY)
BP plc (BP)
iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil TR ETN (OIL)
United States Natural Gas (UNG)
Nissan Motor Co. Ltd. (NSANY)
Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM)
https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png00Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2014-08-25 09:40:252014-08-25 09:40:25August 25, 2014
If anyone had any doubts about the future direction of stocks this year, you better take a look at the chart below for the S&P 500.
It shows a very convincing trend upward at almost a perfect 45-degree angle going back for the past year. The range is 100 points wide. It?s almost as if an architect drew it with drafting tools.
To take maximum advantage of this trend, you have to buy every 80 dip, as the floor is constantly rising. It?s as simple as that. Think of Trading 101 for Dummies.
We have had a host of challenges that threatened to knock us out of this channel for the past year.
A second Cold War with Russia? Wake me up when it?s over.
The ongoing collapse of Iraq? Snore?
The suspension of oil exports from Libya barely elicited a blip on your screen, as did the horrific civil war in Syria, a replay of the Middle Ages.
China slowdown? Pshaw! ?Sell in May and Go Away?? Cancelled!
Subpar American economic growth? No problemo.
All of these problems the market has weathered nicely, much like a wet dog shakes off water.
In fact, it has been three years since we endured the distress of a 10% correction, the self-inflicted wound triggered by the government?s hand wringing debt ceiling crisis.
In the end, it amounted to nothing, and was the last decent buying opportunity traders have seen. It has all be one giant ?chase? for performance and reach for yield since then.
The lesson of all of this is that what counts is the good old USA. That is what really is driving markets. All of those foreign distractions are just so much noise. At the end of the day, only the health of the American economy is what matters.
That?s all great news, because our economy is looking pretty darn muscular. Just last week, we saw the Markit August Purchasing Managers Index rocket from 55.8 to 58.0. Weekly jobless claims, the most accurate predictor of true business activity in this cycle, is plumbing seven-year lows. Housing data has just engineered a dramatic turnaround.
It gets better. The upshot of last week?s gathering of Federal Reserve officials at Jackson Hole, Wyoming is that ?normalization? is the new word du jour. What does this mean to us plebeians?
That the economy is so healthy that the government is actually thinking of raising interest rates sometime in the far future, possibly at the end of 2015, and then only by a little bit. That would bring to an end eight years of zero interest rate policy.
Until then, you have a government issued license to print free money. Buy the dips and sell the rallies, and work the 100-point range. If we continue ascending as we have done, the (SPX) should reach 2,100 by December, which happens to be my long held yearend target.
My bet is this could run all the way until April, when the next round of seasonal weakness kicks in again. If there is a risk of anything, it is that the buyers start to panic over missing the move and the (SPY) melts up, possibly as high as 2,200 by January, and 2,300 by March.
Of course, it?s always useful to engage in what my role model, Albert Einstein, called ?thought experiments? and consider what might cause the wheels to fall off of the bull market. To consider that in depth, please read ?What Could Derail the Coming Golden Age? by clicking here.
So what individual sectors should you focus on now? I hate to sound redundant and repetitive. As you may have noticed, ?boring? is not in my DNA (sending Trade Alerts on my iPhone while hanging by ropes from a cliff in the Swiss Alps during a ferocious storm?).
However, I?ll hark back to my favorite three legs for the economy, technology, energy, and health care. Biotechnology continues to sizzle, as do the car companies. And if bonds are peaking, as I believe, the entire financial sector is a screaming buy here.
One unknown is how the markets will take the Alibaba IPO in September, with an expected $150-$200 billion valuation, the largest in history. If institutions have to unload their existing holdings to make room for the new issues, it could trigger our next 4% correction. If that happens, buy the dip with both hands.
By the way, now that the summer is ending, subscription renewals are coming, so don?t forget to ?re-up? if you want to continue with your 41% average annualized returns.
Hey, the house is starting to shake. I think it?s an earthquake, a big one. Better get this out before the broadband goes down?
Uncle Sam is Looking Pretty Muscular These Days
00Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2014-08-25 09:39:332014-08-25 09:39:33My End 2014 Stock Market Forecast
There are a lot of belles at the ball, but you can?t dance with all of them.
While a student at UCLA in the early seventies, I took a World Politics course, which required me to pick a country, analyze its economy, and make recommendations for its economic development. I chose Algeria, a country where I had spent the summer of 1968 caravanning among the Bedouins, crawling out of the desert half starved, lice ridden, and half dead.
I concluded that the North African country should immediately nationalize the oil industry, and raise prices from $3/barrel to $10.? I knew that Los Angeles based Occidental Petroleum (OXY) was interested in exploring for oil there, so I sent my paper to the company for review. They called the next day and invited me to their imposing downtown headquarters, then the tallest building in Los Angeles.
I was ushered into the office of Dr. Armand Hammer, one of the great independent oil moguls of the day, a larger than life figure who owned a spectacular impressionist art collection, and who confidently displayed a priceless Faberg? egg on his desk. He said he was impressed with my paper, and then spent two hours grilling me.
Why should oil prices go up? Who did I know there? What did I see? What was the state of their infrastructure? Roads? Bridges? Rail lines? Did I see any oil derricks? Did I see any Russians? I told him everything I knew, including the two weeks in an Algiers jail for taking pictures in the wrong places. His parting advice was to never take my eye off the oil industry, as it is the driver of everything else. I have followed that advice ever since.
When I went back to UCLA, I told a CIA friend of mine that I had just spent the afternoon with the eminent doctor (Marsha, call me!). She told me that he had been a close advisor of Vladimir Lenin after the Russian Revolution, had been a double agent for the Soviets ever since, that the FBI had known this all along, and was currently funneling illegal campaign donations to President Richard Nixon. Shocked, I kicked myself for going into an interview so ill prepared, and had missed a golden opportunity to ask some great questions. I never made that mistake again.
Some 40 years later, while trolling the markets for great buying opportunities set up by the BP oil spill, I stumbled across (OXY) once more (click here for their site). (OXY) has a minimal offshore presence, nothing in deep water, and huge operations in the Middle East and South America. It was the first US oil company to go back into Libya when the sanctions were lifted in 2005. (OXY?s) substantial California production is expected to leap to 45% to 200,000 barrels a day over the next four years. Its horizontal multistage fracturing technology will enable it to dominate California shale. The company has raised its dividend for the tenth year in a row, by 15% to 1.56%. Need I say more?
The clear message that came out of the BP oil spill is that onshore energy resources are now more valuable than offshore ones. I decided to add it to my model portfolio. Energy is one of a tiny handful of industries I am willing to put my money in these days (technology, industrials, and health care are the others).
Oh, and I got an A+ on the paper, and the following year Algeria raised the price of oil to $12.
A Faberge Egg
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/Faberge-Egg.jpg264257Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2014-08-25 09:32:452014-08-25 09:32:45Take a Look at Occidental Petroleum (OXY)
Many commentators are warning of a top, a bubble and Armageddon to come in the stock market. There has not been a 10% correction in the indexes since the debt ceiling crisis three years ago.
But I think that we are just getting started.
Share prices have the rocket fuel for the Dow average to make it to 18,000 by the end of 2014, and possibly 100,000 by 2025. To understand why, you have to focus on major long-term structural changes occurring in the global economy which at this point only a handful for strategists can see, and then, only faintly.
The evidence couldn?t be more undeniable. The major stock indexes have repeatedly broken out to new all time highs in 2014. The more volatile and economically sensitive Russell 2000 small cap index has left it in the big caps dust.
Inflows to equity mutual funds have been the most prolific since 2008. It all paints a picture of a run up (SPX) to and of 2,100 by year-end, which by the way, has been my own forecast all year. Perma bears be damned!
Betting on the Federal Reserve?s fears of a replay of 1937, when premature tightening tipped the US economy into the second leg of the Great Depression, has been a huge winner for me for years now. It means that it is willing to err on the side of over stimulation, by a lot.
With wages growth stagnant for decades, and many commodity prices and precious metals down 30% or more year to date, the Fed certainly has a free pass on the inflation front to do so. Corporate earnings are also helping, consistently surprising to the upside.
However, I think the market is trying to tell us infinitely more than what appeared in yesterday?s headlines, or what flew by in the last tweet or text. There is something deeper going on here beyond the noise of the daily data releases. Asset prices are acting like there is a major structural change underway in the world economy, which so far has remained invisible to all except the market.
Yes, there are a few professionals out there who can see imminent momentous change within their own narrow industries. But no one has yet aggregated all these changes together, so I?ll take a whack at it.
Here are ten theories for you to contemplate.
1) There is more Peace Dividend to Pay - Is it possible that the markets have not yet fully discounted America?s victory in the Cold War? That the payout was interrupted by the dotcom and housing crashes, and that it is now resuming?
Yes, we priced in a chunk with the run up in the Dow average from 2,500 to 11,000 during the 1990?s. But could there be more to go? After all, 22 years since the fall of the Soviet Union and the US still faces no industrial strength enemy, and there are none on the horizon either.
At the very least, this reality should be enough to chop our current defense spending by half, and eliminate most of our budget deficit. Much of the defense establishment agrees with me. They?d rather be spending money on inexpensive, high value, targeted programs, like cyber warfare and drones, rather than the costly, politically inspired, heavy metal weapons systems of old.
2) Obama Care Works ? With the House of Representatives voting to repeal the President?s health care plan for the 50th time, and closing down the government for 16 days in protest, conservative antipathy towards Obamacare couldn?t be more clear. But what if, instead of doubling health care costs as the right has claimed, it drops them by half? What if the plan does add 0.5% to annual GDP and creates 2 million jobs?
This, after all, was the original plan. Health care is expensive in the US because of the lack of competition, and Obamacare delivers that in spades for the first time. Of course there were going to be teething problems. After all, the government is trying to create 50 Amazons overnight at once. It took 20 years for my former Morgan Stanley colleague, Jeff Bezos, to create just one.
The early evidence shows that the competitive health insurance exchanges the plan sets up are delivering price reductions of 30% to 50% in New York and California. I walked into Costco the other day and was offered a plan for $235 a month with an $8,000 deductable, just so I could avoid the penalties for the uninsured. The best offer I previously received from Blue Cross of California was $3,500 a month, typical for an elderly white male like myself.
If this, in turn, solves the health care and Social Security crisis, it will do a lot to wipe out that ?uncertainty? you hear so much about. The predictions of the eventual insolvency of the United States, a perennial Internet conspiracy favorite, also go down the drain.
3) Another Technology Revolution ? Are we on the verge of another great technology breakthrough like the one we saw during the dotcom boom, when PC?s, the Internet, and the World Wide Web simultaneously came together to supercharge corporate earnings for a decade? What if the cost of treating cancer drops from $100,000 to $200, as my friend, Dr. Michio Kaku, believes. What if new Apples and Googles (GOOG) continue to appear out of nowhere?
If you lived in San Francisco and were barraged by venture capital pitches on a daily basis, as I am, you would think this new Golden Age is going to start any minute. There are a thousand innovations percolating out there.
The only question is whether the lead industry will be communications, health care, energy, or all three. Ride your bike south of Market Street someday and see how much research capacity is being built now, the size of a small city. It is awe-inspiring.
4) The Real Cost of Energy Collapses ? We all know about the new 100-year supply of natural gas discovered under our feet that will turn us into Saudi America. But there are 100 additional ways that energy supply is improving and demand is falling.
Conservation will be huge, as will grid and utility modernization. What if Tesla?s (TSLA) Elon Musk is able to deliver a $40,000 electric car with a 300-mile range in three years, as he has promised? This will be a game changer. His track record so far is pretty good.
This is the man so brimming with confidence that he just bought James Bond?s submarine car for $1 million (see the cool modified Lotus in The Spy Who Loved Me). Falling energy costs mean that the profitability of virtually every listed company goes through the roof.
It is likely that if Iran ever does make good on its threat to close the Straights of Hormuz, no one will care. Some 80% of that oil, and soon to be 100%, goes to China, and that will be their problem, not ours.
5) Productivity Accelerates ? By relentlessly introducing new technologies and cutting costs, corporate profitability has soared for the past 30 years. Pessimists now say things can?t get any better. But what if they do?
As I tell guests at my strategy luncheons, this is not a mean reverting data series. Having invested in the machine that took your labor force from 1,000 to 100, what if the next one brings it to 10? Guess which country is about to lose millions of jobs from offshoring and new technology? China. Just talk to any European CEO about their new ?American Strategy.?
6) Interest Rates Stay Low for Another Decade ? If wages stay in check, oil prices fall, and commodity places stay low, then the Fed has absolutely no reason to substantially raise interest rates for another ten years, no matter what the economy does. The next demographic push that creates a worker shortage and higher wages doesn?t start until the early 2020?s.
Sure, the Fed will probably normalize overnight rates back to 2% by next year, as the safety net for the economy is no longer needed. But rates could remain historically very low for quite a long time. This savings immediately drops to the bottom line of any borrower, be they individual, corporate, or government.
In fact, looking at the main causes of the recessions for the last 50 years?a spike in interest rates or a sudden cut off in oil supplies, and absolutely none are visible on the horizon, for now.
7) Shinzo Abe Saves Japan ? The conventional wisdom is that the new government in Japan is resorting to a last desperate act to save their economy that will fail, and that a complete collapse of their over leveraged financial system will result.
But what if Abe gets his necessary reforms through and the country regains its powerhouse status. If Japan?s $6 trillion economy, the world?s third largest, bounces back from a 1% to a 4% GDP growth rate, there will be positive implications for all of us.
8) Europe Gets Its Act Together ? It seems that all we ever hear about from the continent is debt crisis and stagnation and a political system so fragmented that no one can do anything about it. But what if new leadership emerges and takes the initiative to coalesce and solidify Europe?
That would involve creating a single Ministry of Finance, issuing pan Euro bonds, and a European Central Bank with teeth and courage. Their economic problems would disappear and growth would double. As part of my consulting arrangements with governments there, I have been recommending these measures for years, and everyone agrees. All that is missing is the political will to carry them out.
9) The Dollar Stays Strong ? With America?s debt to GDP now over 100% and rising, many analysts believe it is just a matter of time before we see a major crash in the dollar. This is only the continuation of a 220-year-old trend.
What if it goes up instead? Energy independence means we will no longer ship $250 billion a year to the Middle East to pay for oil imports. CEO?s in Europe and Asia are stumbling over each other to find ways to get capital into the US to take advantage of a stronger economy. Higher growth rates mean the feared American deficits start shrinking on their own, with no action from congress whatsoever. This is all long-term dollar positive.
10) Multiples Keep Expanding ? Most strategists believe that the S&P 500 is fairly valued at 1,983 with a price earnings multiple of 15 times, dead in the middle of its historic 9-22 range. But if any of my theories above unfold, then much higher multiples are justified. If they all unfold, then investors wouldn?t hesitate to pay a 25 multiple for American stocks, as their future outlook is so unremittingly positive.
You may say this sounds crazy, and you?d be right. But remember, twice in the last 25 years we have seen market multiples skyrocket to 100. Japanese share valuations reached that nosebleed summit in 1989, and American Dotcom stocks did so in 2000. And they reached those numbers with fundamentals far less substantial than we are facing now. Just take multiples on today?s market up from 15X to 20X, and the Dow should be worth 26,000.
Sure, all of the above represents a pie in the sky best-case scenario. Some, or none, of them may actually play out in the real world. But the ones that do occur will have a super-leveraged effect on each other. The net impact will be US GDP growth easily leaps back from today?s feeble 2% to the virile 4% or more that we grew comfortable with during the fifties, sixties, and eighties.
That growth rate will solve America?s Social Security, Medicare, and deficit problems in fairly short order, without any action by the government.
Needless to say, all of the above is hugely positive for the stock market. It brings forecasts for a Dow 18,000 by the end of 2014, and 100,000 by 2025 out of the realm of fantasy. It kind of makes today?s stock prices look dirt-cheap.
Maybe that?s what the market is trying to tell us, if we only had the patience and the foresight to listen.
This doesn?t mean that you need to rush out and buy more stocks today. Some of these trends will take a decade or more to play out. Better entry points will no doubt present themselves. But the writing is on the wall for higher equity prices, not just in the US, but globally.
I can tell you from the vast expanse of my own 45 years in the prediction business, I have learned one thing. All that is forecast never happens, and all that happens was never forecast.
I?m still waiting for my flying car, although the Tesla S-1 comes close.
My Tesla S-1
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/JT-with-Tesla-e1427723768460.jpg227400Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2014-08-21 01:03:432014-08-21 01:03:43Why US Stocks Are Dirt Cheap
You usually don?t expect US housing data to cause the collapse of a foreign currency. But that is exactly what happened this morning.
The announcement by the Census Bureau that new home stats for July came in at a breathtaking 1.09 million, up 15.7%, blew away even the optimistic forecasts. Earlier figures for June were revised up substantially.
New building permits for July came in at a robust 1.1 million. Perma bears on the housing market were sent scampering to lick their wounds.
The real shocker was that the Euro promptly dropped 50 basis points, piercing a major support level on the long term charts. The short Euro ETF (EUO), which I have been recommending since the spring for my non-option clients skyrocketed. That clears the way for a run in the (FXE) down to $127.
The (FXE) wasn?t the only asset that saw a kneejerk reaction. The Treasury bond market (TLT) dove by 1 ? points. It is now 2 ? points off the short squeeze high last Friday, when false rumors of a Russian invasion of the Ukraine caused traders to panic. This sent the ProShares Ultra Short 20+ Year Treasury ETF (TBT) soaring, which I am also long.
You can come up with a nice academic theory as to why there is a connection between American housing data and the beleaguered continental currency. Stronger housing means a better economy and higher dollar interest rates, sooner.
As interest rates differentials are the primary driver of foreign exchange markets, this is great news for the greenback and terrible news for the Euro.
The truth is a little more complicated than that. The outlook for the European economy is now so poor, thanks to the sanctions against Russia, that traders and investors have been desperate to add to their short positions. After the prolonged, one-way move down we saw this summer, the Euro managed barely a one-cent short covering rally in the past week.
There is another factor that no one else is talking about. Scotland is about to hold a referendum on whether it should break away from the United Kingdom. Scottish nationalists are hoping for the best.
If successful, it could spur other independence movements across Europe. Catalonia is having a similar vote to break away from Spain in November, with some separatists avid followers of this letter (yes, that?s you, Joan!). The Basque region is not far behind. If this trend ripples across the continent, it would be hugely Euro negative.
The European Central Bank is almost certain to lower Euro interest rates and expand quantitative easing at a September or October meeting. This will weaken the Euro further, paving the way for a move to $127, and eventually $120.
That?s why I am doubling my shorts in the (FXE) today, even though we are at the low for the year. Non-options players should buy more of the ProShares Ultra Short Euro ETF (EUO).
The Euro is Not Looking So Hot
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/Mario-Draghi.jpg269401Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2014-08-20 08:50:102014-08-20 08:50:10The Euro Breaks Down
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