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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

December 30, 2019

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
December 30, 2019
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(WILL SYNBIO SAVE OR DESTROY THE WORLD?),
(XLV), (XPH), (XBI), (IMB), (GOOG), (AAPL), (CSCO), (BIIB)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-12-30 08:04:332019-12-30 07:28:17December 30, 2019
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Tech Talent Put Their Foot Down

Tech Letter

Enough is enough that conditions are such – Americans are leaving California in droves.

The verdict is out, and California isn’t as attractive of place to live as it once was and tech talent isn’t blindly moving there based on the allures of tech stardom.

In an era of minimal regulation, Silicon Valley grew at breakneck speeds right into families' living quarters and it was a win-win proposition for both the consumer and Silicon Valley.

That was then, and this is now.

The San Francisco Bay Area is the mecca of technology, but recent indicators have doom and gloom written all over it.

In general, a healthy and booming local real estate sector is a net positive creating paper wealth the local population and attracting money slated for expansion.

The net positive has flipped, and housing is now a buzzword for the maladies young people face to sustain themselves in the ultra-expensive California megacities.

The loss of tax deductions in the recent tax bill makes conditions even more draconian.

Monthly rental costs are deterring tech's future minions. Without the droves of talent flooding the area, it becomes harder for the industry to incrementally expand.

After surveying a collection of HR staff, there is a shortage of artificial intelligence (A.I.) programmers and coders to fill internal projects.

And it’s not just a domestic brain drain; the international talent pool is drying up as well.

Compounding the housing crisis is the change of immigration policy that has frightened off many future Silicon Valley workers.

The best and brightest foreign minds are trained in America, and a mass exodus would create an even fiercer deficit for global dev-ops talent.

These U.S.-trained foreign tech workers are the main drivers of foreign tech start-ups.

Dangling carrots and sticks for a chance to start an embryonic project in the cozy confines of home is hard to pass up.

Ironically enough, there are more A.I. computer scientists of Chinese origin in America than there are in all of China.

There is a huge movement by the Chinese private sector to bring everyone back home as China vies to become the industry leader in A.I.

Silicon Valley is on the verge of a brain drain of mythical proportions.

If America allows brilliant minds to fly home, America is just training these workers to compete against American workers.

More than 70% of tech employees in Silicon Valley and more than 50% in the San Francisco Bay Area are foreign, according to the 2018 census data.

Adding insult to injury, the exorbitant cost of housing is preventing burgeoning American talent from migrating from rural towns across America and moving to the Bay Area.

They make it as far West as Salt Lake City, Reno, or Las Vegas.

This trend is reinforced by domestic migration statistics.

Ultimately, if VCs think it is expensive now to operate a start-up in Silicon Valley, it will be costlier in the future.

Yes, the FANGs will continue their gravy train, but the next big thing to hit tech will not originate from California.

VCs will overwhelmingly invest in data over rental bills. The percolation of tech ingenuity will likely pop up in either Nevada, Arizona, Texas, Utah, or yes, even Michigan.

Even though these states attract poorer migrants, the lower cost of housing is beginning to attract tech professionals.

Salt Lake City, known as Silicon Slopes, has been a tech magnet of late with big players such as Adobe (ADBE), Twitter (TWTR), and EA Sports (EA) opening new branches there while Reno has become a massive hotspot for data server farms. Nearby Sparks hosts Tesla's Gigafactory 1 along with massive data centers for Apple, Alphabet, and Switch.

The half a billion-dollars required to build a proper tech company will stretch further in Austin or Las Vegas, and most of the funds will be reserved for tech talent - not slum landlords.

The nail in the coffin will be the millions saved in state taxes.

The rise of the second-tier cities is the key to staying ahead of the race for tech supremacy.

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/road.png 585 464 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-12-30 08:02:292020-05-11 13:04:25Tech Talent Put Their Foot Down
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

December 30, 2019 - Quote of the Day

Tech Letter

"Twitter is about moving words. Square is about moving money," - said CEO of Twitter, Jack Dorsey, to The New Yorker, October 2013.

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/Jack-Dorsey-oct18.png 549 590 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-12-30 08:00:122019-12-30 10:55:59December 30, 2019 - Quote of the Day
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

December 27, 2019

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
December 27, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(WHY YOU CANNOT NEGLECT THE CLOUD)
(AMZN), (MSFT), (GOOGL), (AAPL), (CRM), (ZS)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-12-27 08:04:392019-12-27 07:47:42December 27, 2019
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

December 27, 2019

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
December 27, 2019
Fiat Lux

SPECIAL ISSUE ABOUT THE FAR FUTURE

Featured Trade:
(PEAKING INTO THE FUTURE WITH RAY KURZWEIL),
(GOOG), (INTC), (AAPL), (TXN),

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-12-27 08:04:002019-12-27 07:26:02December 27, 2019
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Why You Cannot Neglect the Cloud

Tech Letter

Cloud stocks should be at the vanguard of your tech portfolio, no ifs, ands, or buts.

If you've been living under a rock the past few years, the cloud phenomenon hasn't passed you by and you still have time to cash in.

Microsoft's (MSFT) pivot to its Azure enterprise business has sent its stock skyward, and it is poised to rake in more than $100 billion in cloud revenue over the next 10 years.

Microsoft's share of the cloud market rose from 10% to 15% and is rapidly zeroing in on Amazon Web Services (AWS).

Amazon leads the cloud industry it created which is partly why the first-mover advantage is so effective.

It still maintains more than 30% of the cloud market and Microsoft still needs to gain a lot of ground to even come close.

Amazon (AMZN) relies on AWS to underpin the rest of its businesses and that is why AWS contributes the lion’s share of Amazon's total operating income.

Cloud revenue is even starting to account for a noticeable share of Apple's (AAPL) earnings, which has previously bet the ranch on hardware products, most notably the iPhone and iPad.

The future is about the cloud.

These days, the average venture capitalist probably hears about the cloud 100 times a day.

So, before we get deep into the weeds with this letter on cloud services, cloud fundamentals, cloud plays, and cloud Trade Alerts, let's get into the basics of what the cloud actually is.

Think of this as a cloud primer.

It's important to understand the cloud, both its strengths and limitations. Giant companies that have it figured out, such as Salesforce (CRM) and Zscaler (ZS), are some of the fastest-growing companies in the world.

Understand the cloud and you will readily identify its bottlenecks and bulges that can lead to dramatic investment opportunities.

And that's where I come in.

Cloud storage refers to the online space where you can store data. It resides across multiple remote servers housed inside imposing data centers all over the country, some as large as football fields, often in rural areas where land, labor, and electricity are cheap.

They are built using virtualization technology, which means that storage space spans across many different servers and multiple locations. If this sounds crazy, remember that the original Department of Defense packet-switching design was intended to make the system atomic bomb-proof.

As a user, you can access any single server at any one time anywhere in the world. These servers are owned, maintained and operated by giant third-party companies such as Amazon, Microsoft, and Alphabet (GOOGL), which may or may not charge a fee for using them.

The most important features of cloud storage are:

1) It is a service provided by an external provider.

2) All data is stored outside your computer residing inside an in-house network.

3) A simple Internet connection will allow you to access your data at any time from anywhere.

4) Because of all these features, sharing data with others is vastly easier, and you can even collaborate in real-time, making it the perfect force multiplier in our globalized world.

Once you start using the cloud to store a company's data, the benefits are countless.

  1. No Maintenance

Many companies, regardless of their size, prefer to store data inside in-house servers and data centers.

However, these require constant 24-hour-a-day maintenance, so the company has to employ a large in-house IT staff to manage them - a costly proposition.

Thanks to cloud storage, businesses can save costs on maintenance since their servers are now the headache of third-party providers.

Instead, they can divert resources on the core aspects of their business where they can increase value without worrying about managing IT staff of prima donnas.

  1. Greater Flexibility

Today's employees want to have a better work/life balance and this goal can be best achieved through telecommuting. Increasingly, workers are bending their jobs to fit their lifestyles, and that is certainly the case here at Mad Hedge Fund Trader.

How else can I shoot off a Trade Alert while hanging from the face of a Swiss Alp?

Cloud storage services, such as Google Drive, offer exactly this kind of flexibility for employees while boosting performance.

According to a recent survey, 79% of respondents already work outside of their office some of the time, while another 60% would switch jobs if offered this flexibility.

With data stored online, it's easy for employees to log into a cloud portal, work on the data they need to, and then log off when they're done. This way, a single project can be worked on by a global team, the work handed off from time zone to time zone until it's done.

It also makes them work more efficiently, saving money for penny-pinching entrepreneurs.

  1. Better Collaboration and Communication

In today's business environment, it's common practice for employees to collaborate and communicate with co-workers located around the world.

For example, they may have to work on the same client proposal together or provide feedback on training documents. Cloud-based tools from DocuSign, Dropbox, and Google Drive make collaboration and document management a piece of cake.

These products, which all offer free entry-level versions, allow users to access the latest versions of any document, so they can stay on top of real-time changes which can help businesses to better manage workflow regardless of geographical location.

  1. Data Protection

Another important reason to move to the cloud is superior data security, especially in the event of a natural disaster. Hurricane Sandy wreaked havoc on local data centers in New York City, forcing many websites to shut down operations for days.

The cloud simply routes traffic around disaster zones as if, yes, they have just been destroyed by a nuclear attack.

It's best to move data to the cloud to avoid such disruptions.

Even if one area is affected, your operations don't have to capitulate, and data remains accessible no matter what happens. It's a system called deduplication.

  1. Lower Overhead

The cloud can slash expenses fast.

By outsourcing data storage to cloud providers, businesses save on capital and maintenance costs, resources that in turn can be used to expand the business. Setting up an in-house data center requires millions, and that's not to mention perpetual maintenance costs.

Creating an in-house data center seems about as contemporary as a buggy whip, a corset, or a Model T.

 

 

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/cloud-computing.jpg 453 459 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-12-27 08:02:372020-05-11 13:04:18Why You Cannot Neglect the Cloud
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

December 27, 2019 - Quote of the Day

Tech Letter

“Life is not fair; get used to it.” Said founder of Microsoft Bill Gates.

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/Bill-Gates-Oct23.png 360 270 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-12-27 08:00:332019-12-27 07:45:42December 27, 2019 - Quote of the Day
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

December 26, 2019

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech & Healthcare Letter
December 26, 2019
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(THE BOOM IN CANCER DRUGS),
(MRK), (CELG), (RHHBY), (BMY), (LLY), (NOVN)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-12-26 07:32:292019-12-26 07:27:23December 26, 2019
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

The Boom in Cancer Drugs

Biotech Letter

Forecasting drug revenue can be a tricky business -- just ask the biotech leaders who overpromised but underdelivered.

These days, more and more variables are coming into play, with the US elections looming over us and the threat of generic meds overtaking market leaders becoming more tangible by the minute. 

Another threat is the entry of biosimilars in the US, knocking down big-name drugs even in the most lucrative markets. Payers are also constantly seeking discounts, forcing tougher competition among crowded markets like diabetes and hepatitis. 

However, the oncology sector remains a booming sector for the biotech industry.

Practically all major companies are either developing oncology treatments or already marketing these as blockbuster treatments, with 63 cancer drugs launched in just the past five years.

Unfortunately, not all cancer drugs are created equal. Looking at the spending on the treatments in recent years, it can clearly be seen that almost 80% of the money has been hogged by the industry leaders with the rest of the group lagging far behind.

To put things in perspective, bear in mind that the annual sales of the top 20 cancer drugs have reached over $50 billion, with $31 billion distributed among industry leaders Merck and Co (MRK), Celgene (CELG), and Roche Holdings (RHHBY).

These numbers hardly come as a surprise especially in light of over $133 billion recorded in spending for cancer treatments. 

The top-selling oncology drug to date is multiple myeloma treatment Revlimid. Technically a Celgene product, the company’s $74 billion acquisition by Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) means the drug will be joining the other powerhouse offerings in the newly formed company’s lineup in the years to come.

With over a decade of dominance in the market and an impressive $9.7 billion in global sales annually, Revlimid has yet to hit its peak.

In fact, this mega-blockbuster is projected to exceed $15 billion in sales next year.

As if that wasn’t impressive enough, this oncology leader is estimated to bring more than double that amount come 2022.

Another dominant player in the oncology market is lung cancer drug Keytruda. Since its launch, this Merck immunotherapy leader has been able to usher in a boatload of cancer treatments using its core indications -- and it’s not yet done.

With an FDA approval eyed on June 29, 2020 for yet another indication for Keytruda, specifically for treating cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma (cSCC), its goal to dethrone Revlimid as the leader in this space now looks achievable.

Right now, Keytruda is used for various cancer types.

Aside from dominating the large addressable lung cancer market, it’s also used to treat head and neck cancer as well as melanoma. This makes Keytruda’s contributions indispensable to Merck’s overall top-line and continuous growth in sales in the past years. 

Hence, it comes as no surprise that Merck’s recent third-quarter earnings had Keytruda is the starring role once again. Sales for this oncology drug jumped 62% year over year, reaching almost $3.1 billion.

One more dominant force in the oncology sector is Roche, with breast cancer drug Herceptin serving as the primary moneymaker of the company in the past 15 years.

With Herceptin raking in roughly $7 billion in annual sales in recent years, Roche has been proactive in securing its position in the oncology space by adding blockbusters ovarian cancer drug Avastin and leukemia medication Rituxan in the list.

For years, these three cancer drugs have formed the foundation of Roche’s continuous growth in the oncology sector. However, these treatments are now in danger of facing competition.

A particularly aggressive competitor is Pfizer (PFE), with its breast cancer drug Ibrance gaining traction as shown by its growing sales from $0.7 billion in 2015 to a promising $4.1 billion in 2018. Other competitors include Eli Lilly’s (LLY) Verzinio and Novartis’ (NOVN) Piqray.

To maintain its stronghold, Roche has been aggressive as well in developing new drugs.

Word has it that the company is expecting an addition $5 billion in sales for its new cancer treatments like breast cancer drugs Perjeta and Kadycla along with lung cancer medications Tecentriq and Alecensa.

 

 

 

 

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/celgene.png 339 385 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-12-26 07:30:122019-12-26 07:27:52The Boom in Cancer Drugs
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

December 26, 2019

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
December 26, 2019
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(TRADING THE NEW APPLE IN 2020),
(AAPL),
(THE EIGHT WORST TRADES IN HISTORY),
(TESTIMONIAL)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-12-26 07:08:182019-12-26 06:59:51December 26, 2019
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