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MHFTR

Come Meet John Thomas at His Global Strategy Luncheons

Tech Letter

Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader's Global Strategy Updates, which I will be conducting in and around the U.S. during the week of June 11-15, 2018. For exact dates, please look at the listing calendar below.

Each luncheon will include an excellent meal followed by a wide-ranging discussion and an extended question-and-answer period.

I'll be giving you my up-to-date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And to keep you in suspense, I'll be throwing a few surprises out there, too.

I'll be arriving at 11:30 AM, and leaving late in case anyone wants to have a one-on-one discussion, or just sit around and chew the fat about the financial markets.

Each lunch will be held at an exclusive downtown private club. The precise location will be emailed with your purchase confirmation.

I look forward to meeting you and thank you for supporting my research.

To purchase tickets for the luncheons, click on our online store.

LUNCHEONS:

MONDAY, JUNE 11, 2018, FORT WORTH, TX, GLOBAL STRATEGY LUNCHEON

TUESDAY, JUNE 12, 2018, NEW ORLEANS, LA, GLOBAL STRATEGY LUNCHEON

WEDNESDAY, JUNE 13, 2018, PHILADELPHIA, PA, GLOBAL STRATEGY LUNCHEON

THURSDAY, JUNE 14, 2018, NEW YORK, NY, GLOBAL STRATEGY LUNCHEON

FRIDAY, JUNE 15, 2018, DENVER, CO, GLOBAL STRATEGY LUNCHEON

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/John-Thomas-story-2-image-e1525989069793.jpg 377 250 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2018-05-18 01:05:372018-05-18 01:05:37Come Meet John Thomas at His Global Strategy Luncheons
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

May 17, 2018 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.

MDT Alert

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2018-05-17 09:32:552018-05-17 09:32:55May 17, 2018 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.
MHFTR

May 17, 2018

Diary, Newsletter

Global Market Comments
May 17, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(WHY THE "MIDTERM EFFECT" RULES THE MARKETS),
(WHO SAYS THERE AREN'T ANY GOOD JOBS?),
(TESTIMONIAL)

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MHFTR

Why the "Midterm Effect" Rules the Markets

Diary, Newsletter, Research

If I had a dime for every trading nostrum I have heard over the past 50 years I would be as rich as Croesus by now. And here's a whopper for you.

A 20% corporate growth rate, a 2% inflation rate, and a 0% stock market: These are numbers you never would expect to see in the same sentence.

Yet, that is what we have at the close today, believe it or not.

And what's worse, this condition could last for another five months. It is clear that something is going on here.

For the past six months, my trading has been wildly successful betting that the stock market would go nowhere until the November 6 midterm elections.

While we have covered an awful lot of ground during this time with a very wide 3,300-point range in the Dow Average (INDU), we have gone absolutely nowhere. As a result, the Mad Hedge Trade Alert Service stands with a 19.83% so far in 2018.

It turns out that trading around midterm congressional elections is far more successful than any other market traditions, like "Sell in May and go Away." Call it the Midterm Effect.

Since the Dow Average was first created on May 26, 1896, the six months going into a midterm produced a feeble 1.4% gain, while the six months after hauled in a whopping 21.8% increase.

In fact, "Sell in May and go away" only works because of the enormous cyclicality of the Midterm Effect, which takes place only every four years. The other three years of that cycle are usually pretty wishy-washy or go the opposite way. Here we are in mid-May, and so far, the Midterm Effect looks pretty good.

The effect only works for midterm elections. It is much less predictive than the Presidential Election Cycle, another popular piece of folk wisdom.

The reason the Midterm Effect works so well is because of human psychology. Investors absolutely hate uncertainty. They are much more inclined to sit on their hands and do nothing ahead of a major market moving event even one 10 months away, when we entered the current range.

They would much rather pay a premium after an event for any securities they might buy rather than being wrong. Money managers tend to be a conservative lot, and this is how conservatism works.

The outcome of the election would have an enormous effect on corporate earnings. According to PredictIt, an online betting site, there is a 67% chance that the Democrats will take the House in November.

If that occurs, no major changes to the economy nor laws pass for at least two years. If that doesn't occur, the president will have a free hand to pursue his existing policies unfettered. However, the election is not for another five months, and in politics that could be five lifetimes.

So range trading it is. Buy the small dips and sell the small rallies for the foreseeable future. Wake me up around Halloween.

 

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/US-map-story-1-image-2.jpg 216 350 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2018-05-17 01:08:082018-05-17 01:08:08Why the "Midterm Effect" Rules the Markets
MHFTR

May 17, 2018

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
May 17, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(NVIDIA NAILS IT AGAIN)

(NVDA), (ZTE), (GOOGL), (AMD)

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MHFTR

Nvidia Nails it Again

Tech Letter

No one does it better than Nvidia (NVDA).

Fetch a measuring stick from the cupboard, gauge the levels of innovation around Silicon Valley, and Nvidia's name floats straight to the top of the list.

Nvidia has it all and more.

Not many firms can brandish one of the best CEOs in all of tech.

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang is a true visionary.

When he hops on earnings calls, investors and analysts rejoice about the breadth of innovation percolating through the corridors in Santa Clara, CA.

Nvidia was able to increase quarterly revenue by an eye-popping 61% YOY. And this company is one of the quintessential growth companies in tech.

Huang is one of the few CEOs confident enough to talk all the way through the earnings call like he is talking about the back of his hand.

Most CEOs delegate to the CFO after a carefully choreographed introductory statement.

He knows everything about the company and is not afraid to go into detail.

The past few weeks have been hell for chip companies.

The cascade of downgrades undercut momentum with chip shares prices falling across the board.

Every nonsensical downgrade has proved unjustified with chip earnings displaying the robust potency that only FANGs can replicate.

Delve into Nvidia's latest performance and two parts of the business have gone into overdrive.

Gaming has burst to the forefront providing a sturdy pillar to Nvidia's income stream.

Fortunately, crypto mining and e-gamers are dual drivers fueling a rapidly expanding market.

In Q1, crypto miners and e-gamers faced a hysterical "scarcity" of high grade GPU hardware.

To make matters worse, Apple and Samsung are using the same memory as graphic cards.

These two global giants front ran other companies agreeing pricier per unit contracts to guarantee sufficient supply for their product lineup.

This led to a huge famine or feast environment to secure the necessary components.

Huang has ensured investors that Nvidia is moving mountains to meet demand and he hopes prices will "normalize" in the upcoming quarter.

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is the other player producing GPU chips that is experiencing a demand overload.

On the last sell-off, AMD dropped as low as 9.50 and was the perfect entry point into a great company led by Lisa Su, PhD.

AMD continued to bounce off the $9 handle and is trading at $13 after an outstanding earnings report.

Huang also caveated his hopes of chip prices normalizing by saying the "pent-up demand" could get worse because of the unbelievable gaming options in the market, such as blowout title Fortnite and popular online game Player Unknown's Battlegrounds that have sold more than 40 million copies throughout various platforms.

Nvidia has caught the innovation bug with new products coming off the conveyer belt sooner than expected.

Nvidia has announced NVIDIA RTX, the "holy grail" of graphic performance that will offer gamers Hollywood cinematic production quality lighting, reflections, and shadows.

This product has been in the works for the past 10 years and has gamers and miners drooling over this new technology called ray tracing.

Revenue from crypto miners is not a part of Nvidia's core mission, and the stronger than expected numbers are just the beginning.

If bitcoin takes another stab at $20,000, GPU demand will go through the roof.

As the price of cryptocurrencies rise, the profit-making opportunities to mine are greatly enhanced.

Another division running on all cylinders showing no sign of slowing down is the data center segment.

Initially, this industry was tabbed by Nvidia as a $30 billion opportunity by 2020.

They were completely wrong.

Nvidia moved the goal posts and announced at a recent investors day that it believes data center revenue will be a $50 billion market by 2023.

Data center revenue spiked 71% YOY to $701 million highlighting the innovation leadership Nvidia enjoys.

The data center incorporates Nvidia's Volta architecture and adoption has been broad-based.

Volta offers 500% more deep learning power than its previous edition Pascal.

The stamp of approval is evident with every major cloud player embracing the Volta technology.

At some points during the earnings call, it appeared to be a commercial for data center, gaming and crypto because of the strength of these two segments.

Huang did talk about other businesses such as autonomous driving buttering up its place in Nvidia's lineup.

Autonomous driving will be a $60 billion opportunity by 2035, according to conservative estimates.

Nvidia's DRIVE Constellation continues to be the bread-and-butter platform for automotive companies.

The platform allows car companies to use virtual reality (V.R.) to carry out driving trials.

Two servers have been built to aid in development.

The first server allows simulation in the form of a pseudo video game, and the other server is used to process the simulated data.

In whole, autonomous driving lagged gaming and data center with 4% growth YOY.

This should not alarm investors because Nvidia is in it for the long run.

The software system and infotainment in the first generation of commercial autonomous vehicles will have plenty of Nvidia chips hovering around under the hood.

At some point, every vehicle in the world will require autonomous technology. As Nvidia stays ahead of the innovation curve, buyers will gravitate toward its products.

The architecture of Nvidia chips allows car companies to advance their autonomous vehicle technology.

Nvidia is partnering with other industry leaders such as Tesla and Mercedes Benz, just to name a few.

Going forward developers will harness the power of artificial intelligence (A.I.) to build new software programs for the car.

The new car software will be part and parcel with voice recognition that has quickly come to the forefront of tech development.

Creating a whole autonomous vehicle system to just drag and drop into its business could lead to Nvidia's products becoming the industry standard.

Technical superiority eventually wins out.

Nvidia has diversified into every cutting-edge trend in technology.

Huang understands that to keep buyers salivating over its products, they must be the highest quality.

The reason Alphabet (GOOGL) or Apple partner and synergize with Nvidia so well is because it makes the best of the best and they cannot copy their products.

This is why ZTE, one of the biggest tech companies in China, practically went out of business after Donald Trump cut of its pipeline of critical American components.

Chinese companies have been attempting to buy American chip companies for years because the quality of chips is significantly superior.

Amid a backdrop of a trade war, Nvidia shares have been trading choppily from a strong support level of $200.

It is only a matter of time before Nvidia explodes through the $250 resistance level and climbs higher.

To watch a video demonstration on Nvidia's new RTX ray tracing technology click here.

 

 

_________________________________________________________________________________________________

Quote of the Day

"The United States must possess unquestioned capacity to launch crippling counter-cyberattacks. This is the warfare of the future ... America's dominance in this arena must be unquestioned and today, it's totally questioned." - said President of the United States Donald J. Trump.

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MHFTR

May 17, 2018 - Quote of the Day Copy

Travel Videos

?The Obamacare website had technical issues all week because of too much web traffic. You can?t campaign on the fact that too many people don?t have health care, and then be surprised that millions don?t have health care. That?s like 1-800-FLOWERS being caught off guard by Valentine?s Day,? said a comedian on Saturday Night Live.

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Arthur Henry

Trade Alert - (SPY) May 16, 2018 TAKE PROFITS

Trade Alert

When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Arthur Henry https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Arthur Henry2018-05-16 14:30:082018-05-16 14:30:08Trade Alert - (SPY) May 16, 2018 TAKE PROFITS
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

May 16, 2018 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.

MDT Alert

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2018-05-16 09:36:562018-05-16 09:36:56May 16, 2018 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.
MHFTR

May 16, 2018

Diary, Newsletter

Global Market Comments
May 16, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(THE LAWSUITS ARE PILING UP ON THE XIV),
(XIV), (VXX),
(KISS THAT UNION JOB GOODBYE),
(TESTIMONIAL)

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Legal Disclaimer

There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.

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