Here it is mid-March, and Apple is already closing in on my 2018 target of $200. Indeed, with a market capitalization today of $930 billion, Apple is on the verge of becoming the world's first $1 trillion publicly traded company.
And here's the really great thing about this year for Apple bulls. If you had the right cajones you had a chance to load the boat just above $150 only five weeks ago.
If you did, as I begged, pleaded, and beseeched you to do, your Apple trade earned a handy 22.33% at today's $183.50 high.
Now for the good news. The best is yet to come. In fact, there are ten reasons why Apple shares should hit my lofty target sometime this year.
1) Share buy backs are first and foremost. With $280 worth of cash in the bank abroad, and two thirds of that committed to buy back Apple stock, shareholders essentially have a free put option.
Indeed, you could see the company's invisible hand in the marketplace during the recent correction, soaking up shares at every opportunity. We won't learn the true numbers until the next quarterly earnings report on May 1.
2) Valuation is still the overwhelming factor driving institutions into Apple stock. With a price earnings multiple of 18X and a dividend yield of 1.40%, Apple is trading not only at a discount to the main market, but a discount to most of tech as well. No one ever got fired for buying Apple, at least not recently.
3) Apple's sales are as good as ever. The expected draw down in between new phone launches is proving less than expected. All of the channel checks suggesting a bigger drop have proven unfounded.
4) The rest of technology is on fire. Even if Apple were stumbling now, which it isn't, it would get dragged up by the meteoric moves seen in the rest of the FANG's.
5) The administration's nixing of the Broadcom (AVGO) takeover of QUALCOMM (QCOM), protects the principal supply of propriety chips for Apple phone safe from foreign interference. Broadcom could have chopped the research budget or transferred crucial technology to foreign competitors.
6) Apple is broadening its product lines, shifting to a new business model that delivers multiple new phones at the same time. This will include low priced models that will compete in new markets like India, as well as go head to head with the market share leaders, Samsung. This will increase market share and profitability.
7) While Apple possesses only 8% of the global cell phone market, it accounts for a staggering 92% of cell phone profits. Apple effectively has a monopoly on cell phone profits.
8) Their new lease program promises to deliver a faster upgrade cycle that will allow higher premium prices for their products and demand more phones. That will bring larger profits.
9) Apple continues to inexorably move into new products and services. While the company was late with the HomePod to compete against Amazon's (AMZN) Alexa and Alphabet's (GOOGL) Google Home, integration with the rest of the Apple ecosystem will enable the company to have the last laugh. Watch out for Apple Pay. Health care is another big target area.
10) Standards of living are rising worldwide. And guess what the first thing a newly enriched middle class does around the planet? They dump their Samsung Galaxies and Google Androids and join the IPhone club for the enhanced status alone.
