I?m not a person inclined to chase winning positions. Making money on one trade is certainly no guarantee that you will repeat the win on the next. Lightening doesn?t strikes twice in the same place.

Well, actually it does sometimes, especially when it comes to selling short the Currency Shares Euro Trust (FXE). Selling short the Euro (EUO) has been one of my most consistently winning trades for all of 2015.

It?s like suddenly being adopted by a generous rich uncle, a continental one that drinks espresso, eats croissants, and smokes Galois cigarettes.

Given the European Central Bank?s dramatic action weeks ago to implement an aggressive program of quantitative easing, the entire world has been trying to sell short the beleaguered continental currency.

This means running the Euro printing presses non-stop, much like the Federal Reserve started doing five years ago.You saw the results here.

Overnight Euro interest rates have already been chopped to negative numbers. Even my cleaning lady, Cecelia, knows she should be unloading her Euros.

The trouble is that the currency has already plunged 37 cents, or almost 27% since its mid 2014 top. In the currency world, this is a big move, and puts China's piddling 4.4% move in the Yuan to shame.

However, we needed an event, or an uncertainty removed, before we could go back in on the short side.

We got that yesterday with Janet's move on interest rates.

You have to go to the weekly charts to find the next support levels, but its clear that $1.00, and then $0.90 eventually beckons one.

We live in a world of chase now. All asset classes, from stocks to bonds, currencies, precious metals, oil, and even food, are at the extended end of very large one-way moves. So pickings on the trading front are becoming increasingly thin.

Think of it as buying the US stock market in 2009. I?d rather sell the (FXE) at the beginning of a five year move, than buy in the middle of a 10 year appreciation, which is what we are seeing in US stocks now.

This is also a play on the US bond market. Any fall in Treasury bond prices and rise in yields, a pretty safe bet over the medium term. This will be happening while Euro interest rates are falling, giving a huge yield advantage to the greenback.

As regular readers of this letter know, INTEREST RATES DIFFERENTIALS ARE THE LARGEST DRIVER OF CHANGES IN FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES.

It's as simple as that.

If you need a third argument for this position, it is a bet on the continued virility of the US fracking industry.

Every additional barrel we produce in America means one less imported from the Middle East, and (as of today) $47 less sold in the foreign exchange markets.

Frackers have already cut our import bill from $400 billion to $200 billion in the past five years, prompting a staggering decline in our dollar outflows.

They are also eliminating our country?s need to maintain expensive ground forces there to protect oil supplies. Every fracking job created in the windswept planes of North Dakota means one less soldier stationed abroad.

This savings will eventually eliminate the government?s present $400 billion budget deficit.

Our newest war in the bleak sands of Syria and Iraq, fought with F-16?s, drones, and Special Forces for targeting, will cost pennies on the dollar when compared to previous conflicts.

I may not be selling short the Euro this second, today, or this week. But I will continue to smack substantial rallies. I might also pick up some Wisdom Tree Europe Hedged Equity ETF (HEDJ), which benefits mightily from a weak continental currency.

Call me old fashioned, but I like to sell high and buy low.

Run Those Printing Presses, Mario!

I hate to be the bearer of sad tidings guys.

But I think the choppy, volatile, trendless, trading conditions we are all suffering right now will continue for a few more weeks, and possibly all the way out to the September 17-18 Federal Reserve interest rate decision.

Man! I wish I were still back in the Sahara Desert. There, I only had to worry about scorpions, poisonous snakes, heat stroke, and raiding Berber tribesmen.

I can afford to be flippant. I have just enjoyed my best trading summer ever, adding 10% to the value of my trading book since I took off for Europe in June.

This, I did with rickety Internet access, only occasional access to market information, and a six-hour time difference.

My secret? I kept my book small, my cash levels high, and didn?t check prices every 15 minutes.

Above all, I stayed patient, holding back from buying stocks that suddenly became cheap. Apple (AAPL) at $120? Disney (DIS) at $110? Tesla (TSLA) at $250?

Most importantly, whenever I thought about buying energy or commodity plays, I lay down and took a long nap instead. When I woke up, the temptation went away.

That said, we are clearly in a capitulation mode for the entire oil space (USO), and could reach a bottom in weeks, given the current rate of decay (an old nuclear physics term). The $30 handle seems to be begging for attention.

In fact, a bottom in energy could signal a bottom for the entire market, and trigger one of the great generational buys of all time. China, the marginal big buyer of all things energy, hasn?t died; it is just resting.

So back to the stock market.

Since April, I have seen a long sideways triangle unfolding for the S&P 500 (SPY). I think we will reach an apex in September, right around a confluence of several news events (Fed decision, energy bottom).

The initial direction will be down, probably through the 200 day moving average. But that will be a head fake, and the real move will start right after that.

Around then, the calendar will flip from hostile to friendly, as we enter the half year period which sees the greatest amount of stock buying (at least it has for the past 60 years). Also about now, the daily data releases will show a dramatic improvement in the economy.

That presents us with a rally into 2016 and a new all time high.

Sectors? You want to know about sectors? Jeez, you?re a tough crowd to please.

I think we can go back to our old reliables of technology (QQQ), health care (GILD), consumer discretionaries (DIS), cyber security (PANW), and biotech (IBB).

This coming cycle will see some new additions. They include interest sensitives, like banks (GS) and regional banks (KBE), homebuilders (LEN), energy (XOM), (OXY), (COP) and solar (SCTY), (FSLR), if oil doesn?t go to zero.

As for Apple, expect the slumber to continue until the next new product cycle for the iPhone 7 launches next year. In between cycles is never a great time to buy Apple, although we may get a pop going into the Christmas selling season.

For those who have been prudently sitting on their hands all year waiting for a chance to put more long term, non-trading money to work, this is it. Your entry point will open up over the next few weeks.

Let me tell you that I have an unfair advantage in making market calls like this that are bold, confident, and possibly bordering on hubris.

I have the good fortune to live in the San Francisco Bay area. It is like living 10-20 years in the future.

The GDP here is definitely not growing at a feeble 2% annual rate, as it may be for much of the rest of the country (like North Dakota, Oklahoma, and Texas). It is really growing at a 5% rate, and possibly much more.

The technology boom in the City by the Bay is reaching a 1990?s fever pitch. You can?t get restaurant reservations or lease office space. Companies have launched serial poaching of staff with only the most limited experience at eye-popping salaries. Contractors everywhere have turned into prima donnas.

Housing is a joke. A friend of mine managed to score a tiny, rent controlled pre-war studio apartment for $2,000 a month after winning a lottery against 50 other entrants. He had to pay a $100 ?application fee? just to enter the lottery.

Oh, and since this is one of the few dog friendly buildings in the city, the whole place smells like crap and dog hair, as every resident owns a pet. Open the door, and you get a slap in the face.

Yes, I know that the United States is not San Francisco. However, the tools and services they are creating here, at a breakneck pace, can be used by the rest of the world to dramatically improve productivity and profitability. That boosts growth and share valuations everywhere.

By the way, if any of you has a twenty something kid looking for a job and a purpose in life, send them to San Francisco immediately. With any luck, they will be able to gain a foothold and pick up some skills before the next crash occurs.

As for me, I am going to try and maintain discipline and not chase every little gyration of the market.

You can?t take advantage of the coming best buying opportunity in a year if you blew all your money trying to catch the small fry.

I Much Prefer Being Here Than in the Market

I?m back.

No more croissants for breakfast. Goodbye to the fabulous selection of cold cuts and cheeses. No more great coffee. It?s back to a sugar infused, calorie packed concoction at Starbucks.

In other words, it?s back to the salt mines for me.

I have just come off a grueling 12 ? hour flight from Zurich, Switzerland to San Francisco.

My cell phone no longer worked in the US, so I couldn?t call Uber. That meant taking a regular taxi, complete with smelly seats, fleas, and a rude driver, at double the price.

When I got home, I discovered that the refrigerator had broken down, the contents spoiled, the ice melted, flooding the kitchen floor, and causing the floorboards to buckle.

The network connection for the TIVO failed. The batteries in the remotes died. Some insects of indeterminate origin appear to have moved in.

It turns out that jet lag is worse the older you get. Life is a bitch, and then you die.

Can I go back? What! Not until next year? I better get hustling!

At least I got the July nonfarm payroll right. My prediction of 215,000 new jobs proved dead on. The prolific gains in technology were offset by the hemorrhaging losses in energy and commodities.

The new economy appears to be growing at the expense of the old.

No surprise means no market movement. The post number price action was the most muted I can remember. The volatility Index (VIX) only made it to an intraday high of $14.50.

That was fine with me, since my core position of a (SPY) deep in-the-money bear put spread is also effectively a short volatility position. I?m taking some heat in my offsetting hedge, a short in US Treasury bonds (TLT). But that expires in ten trading days, and I?m still in the money.

I think I nailed the coming market action in my Milan, Italy Global Strategy Webinar. After the big dip, and then the big rally, we get a big nothing. That is how I expect August to play out.

Today?s nonfarm was the last chance for any market volatility until the Federal Reserve meeting during September 17-18. Then the Fed decides whether to raise rates by 0.25%, or not, for the first time in nine years.

It?s 50/50 whether they move then, or wait until next year. The Federal Reserve has its own wall of worry to climb.

It makes no difference which action the Fed takes. The mere fact that the decision is out of the way is the big issue. Then we?ll get a head fake of a dip, to be followed by a major rally that could continue until 2016, and take us to new all time highs.

Worse case, we are looking at ? point rise this year, and another one in the spring. After that, the burden will be only the shoulders of inflation, which is absolutely nowhere to be seen, and shouldn?t make a reappearance until the 2020?s.

Since America is the leader of the free world, there is the rest of the planet to consider as well.

Europe is just starting to see some green shoots. China is in disarray. Japan looks OK. Emerging markets, nearly half the world?s GDP, are in dire straights. Even the IMF and the World Bank have pleaded with the Fed not to be too quick off the mark in raising interest rates.

The payroll figures delivered the strength that we have become accustomed to. The headline unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5.3% a decade low, while the broader U-6 ?discouraged worker? jobless rate hovered at 10.4%. There were 14,000 in upward revisions for May and June.

Retail led the pack, with +36,000 job gains, followed by food services (+29,000), health care (+28,000), and professional and technical services (+27,000). Mining and logging lost -4,000 jobs. No surprise there.

I?ll leave you with a nice little piece of anecdotal evidence.

For the last four years, I have bought my kids back to school clothes at the big Desigual shop at the Milan train station.

In 2011, prices were at a 90% discount. They were literally trying to throw inventory out the window. I had to buy an extra suitcase to take my booty home.

The next year, I got a 70% discount, still great. After that, prices were only half off. This year? A 30% break. Not so great, but better than paying full retail. And my kids get next year?s styles early.

Hey, in San Francisco, for sixth grade girls, it?s all about fashion.

My conclusion? When the ?RISK ON? environment returns, buy Europe first. Throw some Japan in there too. And buy the US dollar with both hands.

I?m Baaaack!