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Tag Archive for: (AAPL)

MHFTF

October 3 Biweekly Strategy Webinar Q&A

Diary, Newsletter

Below please find subscribers’ Q&A for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader October 3 Global Strategy Webinar with my guest and co-host Bill Davis of the Mad Day Trader.

As usual, every asset class long and short was covered. You are certainly an inquisitive lot, and keep those questions coming!

Q: Will the market keep increasing for the rest of the year?

A: We haven’t had the pullback yet, so the short answer is yes. My yearend target of and S&P 500 (SPY) for the end of 2018 still stands. You can’t argue with the immediate price action. That said, the market is wildly overbought for the medium term and is approaching valuation levels we haven’t seen since the Dotcom peak in 2000. That why I am running a 70% cash trading book now.

Q: Should I be buying the Volatility Index (VIX) here?

A: Look at the bottom where we broke back in August, if we go down there and sit for a couple of days, then go out and buy the March 2019 $40 iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (VXX) calls—way out of the money, way far in the future—and that way if you get any bounce in the (VIX) in the next 6 months, you’ll make a ton of money on that. You can buy them today for 50 cents. Plus, we could get one of these situations where there’s a major selloff once we’re into the new year, so a 6-month (VXX) call option would hedge that.

Q: Given the choice of Apple (AAPL) or Google (GOOG), which would you buy?

A: If you’re a conservative, old lady, widow and orphan type, you’d probably want to buy Apple— it’s almost turned into a utility, it’s so reliably safe, going up and has a nice dividend. If you want to be aggressive, swinging for the fences young stud and are looking for a double, I would go with Google—much higher growth pattern, pays no dividend and has had a 3-month consolidation going sideways. The only thing that could hurt this company would be government regulation, but with the Democrats possibly taking control of Congress in November, the prospect of government regulation of the entire technology sector could rapidly fade away.

Q: When should I get into Health Care (XLV)?

A: I think you have to wait at this point. To me, it’s tremendously overbought at the moment, but is still enjoying a long-term bull move. This is one of my two favorite sectors in the entire market. It has been rising for four months now, even though the Trump threat of price cuts are constantly overhanging the market.

Q: Is oil (USO) going to 100?

A: Because of the disruptions caused by the Iran sanctions and the tearing up of the Iran Nuclear Treaty, Trump has created a short squeeze in oil prices. He is threatening to boycott any country that buys oil from Iran, so Iran is shipping their oil through China, which is already under sanctions itself. However, that is easier said than done. The oil business is much more complicated than people realize. For China to take Iranian oil, they literally have to build new refineries from scratch to process the crude from Iran; no two crudes are alike. When you build a major supply, you have to build refineries to match that, and you have to get it there. This market will eventually stabilize, but in the meantime, there is a big short squeeze going on in Europe.

Q: Do you see the economy going strong into the end of the year?

A: Yes, I do—we still have the tax cuts, global liquidity, and deregulation kicking in, and those things will all work until the end of the year. I think we close at the highs of the year, and after that we’re going to have to start to work hard for our money once again in 2019. The US economy is like a supertanker; it takes a long time to turn it around.

Q: Will the interest rate spike kill the market?

You think? Investors are so used to ultra-low interest rates that a transition to normal rates will be traumatic. Next Friday, we get Core CPI, and if that comes in hot we could see another spike to 3.35% in the ten-year US Treasury bond (TLT). There are now a ton of people desperate to get out of their bond holdings at last week’s prices. This is why I have been selling short the bond market for the past three years and selling as recently as Monday. The next leg down in a 30-year bear market has begun.

Q: Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) has shot over $30—would you sell it?

A: We love the company long term but short term it is just way overdone; take the double and run, and then buy back on the next dip.

Q: Are you still bearish on the chip company?

A: Short term yes, long term no. This sector is now totally driven by the trade war with China. This includes NVIDIA (NVDA), Micron Technology (MU) and LAM Research (LRCX). Lam is particularly exposed because they had ordered to sell ten entire chip factories to China which is now on hold. That said, the day the trade way ends these stocks will all start a 50% run up. If China gets the same free pass and symbolic treaty that Canada did, that could happen sooner than later. If you can’t sleep at night until then, cut your position in half. If you still can’t sleep, cut it again.

Q: Do you think Lockheed Martin (LMT) is a buy Here at $350?

A: No, there is a double top risk for the stock right here. And if the Democrats get control of congress, the whole Trump trade could unwind. That would give the opposition the purse strings and the first thing they’ll do is cut defense spending, which Trump bumped up by $50 billion.

Q: Do you have any views on pot stocks like Aurora Cannabis (ACB), Tilray (TLRY) and (WEED)?

Stay away in droves. They’re this year’s bitcoin stocks. It’s still illegal. That’s why these companies are all based in Canada. And after all it’s a weed. How hard is it to grow? The barriers to entry are zero.

 

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/John-Thomas-old-pic.png 404 302 MHFTF https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTF2018-10-05 09:01:422018-10-04 16:34:00October 3 Biweekly Strategy Webinar Q&A
MHFTF

October 3, 2018

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
October 3, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(OUR HOME RUN ON SQUARE),
(SQ), (V), (AMZN), (GRUB), (SPOT), (MSFT), (CRM), (AAPL)

 

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MHFTF

Our Home Run On Square (SQ)

Tech Letter

Pat yourself on the back if you pulled the trigger on Square (SQ) when I told you so because the stock has just lurched over an intra-day level of $100.

It was me aggressively pushing readers into buying this gem of a fin-tech company at $49. To read that story, please click here (you must be logged in to www.madhedgefundtrader.com).

Since then, the price action has defied gravity levitating higher each passing day immune to any ill-effects.

The Teflon-like momentum boils down to the company being at the cross-section of an American fin-tech renaissance and spewing out supremely innovative products.

At first, Square nurtured the business by targeting the low hanging fruit– small and medium size enterprises in dire need of a strong injection of fin-tech infrastructure.

It largely stayed away from the big corporations that adorn billboards across the Manhattan skyline.

That was then, and this is now.

Square is going after the Goliath’s fueling a violent rise in gross payment volume (GPV).

Modifying themselves for larger institutions is the next leg up for Square.

They recently inaugurated Square for Restaurants for larger full-service restaurants.

Business owners do not need technical backgrounds to operate the software and integrating Caviar into this program emphasizes the feed through all of Square’s software.

Dorsey has built an ecosystem that has morphed into a one-stop shop for comprehensively running a business.

Migrating into business with the premium corporations offers an opportunity to augment higher margin business.

This is the lucrative path ahead for Square and why investors are festively lining up at the door to get a piece of the action.

The downside with an uber-growth company like Square are lean profits, but they have managed to eke out three straight quarters of marginal spoils.

However, the absence of profits can be stomached considering the total addressable market is up to $350 billion.

Grabbing a chunk of that would mean profits galore for this too hot to handle company.

Expenses are always a head spinner for Silicon Valley firms and attracting a dazzling array of engineers to spin out breathtaking profits can’t be done on the cheap.

The Cash app download figures are sizzling and is one of the most popular apps in the app store.

Square’s marketing strategy is also turning a corner getting out their name leading to sale conversions.

These are just several irons in the fire.

The last two years has seen this stock double each year, could we be in for another double next year?

If measured by growth, then I see why not.

Growth is the ultimate acid test deciding whether this stock will be dragged down into the quick sand or let loose to run riot.

Other second-tier tech firms in the middle of a sweet growth spot pack a potent punch like Spotify (SPOT) and Grubhub (GRUB) which are growing annual sales around 50-60%.

Material profits are also irrelevant for the aforementioned tech juggernauts.

Square is expanding at the same fervent pace too, and the hyper-growth only makes payment processors like Visa (V) quasi-jealous of such staggering numbers.

And when Square trots out numbers to the public like that with (GPV) shooting out the roof, the stock does nothing but go gangbusters.

Either way, Square has popularized making credit card payments through smartphones and that in itself was a tough nut to crack amongst tough nuts.

Square also has a line-up of impressive point-of-sales products such as Caviar.

In fact, merchant sellers are adopting an average of 3.4 Square software apps with invoices, loans, marketing, and payroll software being the most beloved.

Square also offers other software that can handle back office tasks and manage inventory.

The software and services business is on pace to register over $1 billion in sales in 2019.

The breadth of functions that can boost a company’s execution highlights the quality of software Dorsey has produced.

I always revert back to one key ingredient that all tech companies must wildly indulge in to fire up the stock price – innovation.

Innovation in bucket loads is something all the brilliant tech firms crave such as Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon, and Salesforce (CRM).

Overperformance starts from the top and trickles down to the people they hand pick to manage and run the businesses.

Jack Dorsey is right up there with the best of them and his influence cannot be denied or ignored.

His stewardship over his other company Twitter (TWTR) is sometimes worrisome because of a pure scheduling conflict, but it’s obvious which company is having a better year.

Square steers clear of the privacy and regulatory minefields handcuffing Twitter.

And it could be safely assumed that Dorsey enjoys his afternoons more at Square than his mornings across the street at Twitter where he is bombarded by heinous problems up the wazoo.

When you conjure up an up-and-coming company that could rattle the establishment, Square is one of the first companies that comes to mind.

Some analysts even argue this company deserves to be lifted into the vaunted Fang group.

I would say they are on their merry way but they just aren’t big enough to command a spot on the Fang roster.

I have immense conviction this stock will be a deep influencer of our time, and its diversified software offerings add limitless dimensions underpinning massive revenue streams.

In Q2, the subscription revenue grew 127% YOY underscoring the success the software team is having, crafting productive apps applicable to business owners.

Business owners can even take out a loan through Square Capital which issues micro-loans to small business owners.

In need of financing? Ring up Dorsey’s company for a few quid.

Starkly contrasting Square in the payment processors space is Visa (V).

Visa is not a hyper-growth company going ballistic, but a stoic behemoth unperturbed.

The 3.283 billion visa cards that adorn its insignia represents scintillating brand awareness and efficiency.

When Tim Cook was asked if Apple (AAPL) plans to disrupt Visa, he smirked and said, “People love their credit cards.”

This is a prototypical steady as she goes-type of company.

They do not offer micro-loans to small businesses or dabble with any of the murky sort of products that can be found on the edge of the risk curve.

They are a safe and steady pure payment processor.

Its network can digest 65,000 transactions per second and is universally cherished as a brand around the world.

All of this led to an operating margin of 66% in 2017.

Square has identified other parts of the payment process to snatch and do not directly compete with Visa.

They partner with Visa and pay them a processing fee.

Subsequently, Square is paid a merchant fee after the payment is approved.

Visa has a monopoly and a moat around their business as wide as can be.

Square is a different type of beast – growing uncontrollably and hell-bent on spawning a revolutionary fin-tech paradigm shift.

The question is can Square eventually turn payment heavyweights like Visa on its head?

The path is fraught with booby traps and as Square generates the projected sales and bolsters its revenue, it could start to encroach on these legacy processors too.

Yet, it’s too early to delve into that threat yet.

Enjoy the ride with Square and better to lay off this potent stock until a better entry point presents itself.

This stock will go higher. Giddy-up!

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 MHFTF https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTF2018-10-03 09:01:422018-10-03 08:59:28Our Home Run On Square (SQ)
MHFTR

October 1, 2018

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
October 1, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(THE MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD,
or DON’T NOMINATE ME!),
(AMZN), (NVDA), (AAPL), (MSFT), (GLD), (ABX), (GOLD),
(JOIN US AT THE MAD HEDGE LAKE TAHOE, NEVADA,
CONFERENCE, OCTOBER 26-27, 2018)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2018-10-01 01:08:182018-09-28 20:44:07October 1, 2018
MHFTR

The Market Outlook for the Week Ahead, or Don’t Nominate Me!

Diary, Newsletter, Research

I have a request for all of you readers. Please do not nominate me for justice of the Supreme Court.

I have no doubt that I could handle the legal load. A $17 copy of Litigation for Dummies from Amazon would take care of that.

I just don’t think I could get through the approval process. There isn’t a room on Capitol Hill big enough to house all the people who have issues with my high school background.

In 1968, I ran away from home, hitchhiked across the Sahara Desert, was captured by the Russian Army when they invaded Czechoslovakia, and had my front teeth knocked out by a flying cobblestone during a riot in Paris. I pray what went on in Sweden never sees the light of day.

So, I’m afraid you’ll have to look elsewhere to fill a seat in the highest court in the land. Good luck with that.

The most conspicuous market action of the week took place when several broker upgrades of major technology stocks. Amazon (AMZN) was targeted for $2,525, NVIDIA (NVDA) was valued at $400, and JP Morgan, always late to the game (it’s the second mouse that gets the cheese), predicted Apple (AAPL) would hit a lofty $270.

That would make Steve Jobs’ creation worth an eye-popping $1.3 trillion.

The Mad Hedge Market Timing Index dove down to a two-month low at 46. That was enough to prompt me to jump back into the market with a few cautious longs in Amazon and Microsoft (MSFT). The fourth quarter is now upon us and the chase for performance is on. Big, safe tech stocks could well rally well into 2019.

Facebook (FB) announced a major security breach affecting 50 million accounts and the shares tanked by $5. That prompted some to recommend a name change to “Faceplant.”

The economic data is definitely moving from universally strong to mixed, with auto and home sales falling off a cliff. Those are big chunks of the economy that are missing in action. If you’re looking for another reason to lose sleep, oil prices hit a four-year high, topping $80 in Europe.

The trade wars are taking specific bites out of sections of the economy, helping some and damaging others. Expect to pay a lot more for Christmas, and farmers are going to end up with a handful of rotten soybeans in their stockings.

Barrick Gold (ABX) took over Randgold (GOLD) to create the world’s largest gold company. Such activity usually marks long-term bottoms, which has me looking at call spreads in the barbarous relic once again.

With inflation just over the horizon and commodities in general coming out of a six-year bear market, that may not be such a bad idea. Copper (FCX) saw its biggest up day in two years.

The midterms are mercifully only 29 trading days away, and their removal opens the way for a major rally in stocks. It makes no difference who wins. The mere elimination of the uncertainty is worth at least 10% in stock appreciation over the next year.

At this point, the most likely outcome is a gridlocked Congress, with the Republicans holding only two of California’s 52 House seats. And stock markets absolutely LOVE a gridlocked Congress.

Also helping is that company share buybacks are booming, hitting $189 billion in Q2, up 60% YOY, the most in history. At this rate the stock market will completely disappear in 20 years.

On Wednesday, we got our long-expected 25 basis-point interest rate rise from the Federal Reserve. Three more Fed rate hikes are promised in 2019, after a coming December hike, which will take overnight rates up to 3.00% to 3.25%. Wealth is about to transfer from borrowers to savers in a major way.

The performance of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader Alert Service eked out a 0.81% return in the final days of September. My 2018 year-to-date performance has retreated to 27.82%, and my trailing one-year return stands at 35.84%.

My nine-year return appreciated to 304.29%. The average annualized return stands at 34.40%. I hope you all feel like you’re getting your money’s worth.

This coming week will bring the jobspalooza on the data front.

On Monday, October 1, at 9:45 AM, we learn the August PMI Manufacturing Survey.

On Tuesday, October 2, nothing of note takes place.

On Wednesday October 3 at 8:15 AM, the first of the big three jobs numbers is out with the ADP Employment Report of private sector hiring. At 10:00 AM, the August PMI Services is published.

Thursday, October 4 leads with the Weekly Jobless Claims at 8:30 AM EST, which rose 13,000 last week to 214,000. At 10:00 AM, September Factory Orders is released.
 
On Friday, October 5, at 8:30 AM, we learn the September Nonfarm Payroll Report. The Baker Hughes Rig Count is announced at 1:00 PM EST.

As for me, it’s fire season now, and that can only mean one thing: 1,000 goats have appeared in my front yard.

The country hires them every year to eat the wild grass on the hillside leading up to my house. Five days later there is no grass left, but a mountain of goat poop and a much lesser chance that a wildfire will burn down my house.

Ah, the pleasures of owning a home in California!

Good luck and good trading.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

We’re Taking Calls Now

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/trailing-one-year-image-1-1-e1538166658317.jpg 365 580 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2018-10-01 01:07:252018-10-04 13:06:00The Market Outlook for the Week Ahead, or Don’t Nominate Me!
MHFTR

September 27, 2018

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
September 27, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(HOW TO GAIN AN ADVANTAGE WITH PARALLEL TRADING),
(GM), (F),
(TM), (NSANY), (DDAIF), BMW (BMWYY), (VWAPY),
(PALL), (GS), (RSX), (EZA), (CAT), (CMI), (KMTUY),
(KODK), (SLV), (AAPL),
(TUESDAY, OCTOBER 16, 2018, MIAMI, FL,
GLOBAL STRATEGY LUNCHEON)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2018-09-27 01:08:412018-09-26 20:55:55September 27, 2018
MHFTR

September 26, 2018

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
September 26, 2018
Fiat Lux

SPECIAL CAR ISSUE

Featured Trade:
(SAY GOODBYE TO THAT GAS GUZZLER),
(GM), (F), (TSLA), (GOOGL), (AAPL)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2018-09-26 01:07:482018-09-25 19:33:37September 26, 2018
MHFTR

September 26, 2018

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
September 26, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(DID SIRIUS OPEN UP PANDORA'S BOX?),
(SPOT), (P), (SIRI), (AAPL), (AMZN)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2018-09-26 01:07:082018-09-25 19:16:30September 26, 2018
MHFTR

Did Sirius Open up Pandora’s Box?

Tech Letter

In a flurry of deals, the music streaming industries consolidation is powering on as some of the industry’s biggest players have completed new acquisitions.

Is there a new King of the Castle?

Not yet.

In any case, the shakeout still allows Spotify to claim itself as the No. 1 company in the music streaming industry, but Apple (AAPL) and Sirius XM (SIRI) have gained.

There is still work to be done for the trailing duo but it is a step in the right direction.

Apple’s deal with Shazam, which just gained approval, was consummated last December, but was held up by European regulators over antitrust problems.

The Europeans have clamped down on American tech companies of late forcing them to play nicer after decades of running riot inside the region.

The Shazam app analyzes then pinpoints titles from music, movies, and television shows based on a brief sample through the device’s microphone.

If your neighbors are blasting the tunes upstairs at a Friday night shindig and you want to find out what song is causing you to lose sleep at night, just turn on your microphone and upload it into Shazam.

Shazam will tell you exactly the song’s title and the artist’s name.

Even dating back to 2013, this app was among the top 10 most popular apps in the world.

In 2018, Shazam has carved out a user base of more than 150 million monthly average users (MAU) and growing.

Shazam is used more than 20 million times per day.

An opportunity lies in urging Shazam users to then adopt Apple music.

Interestingly enough, to upgrade the quality of the app’s functionality, Apple is stripping away digital ads in Shazam.

Apple has made an unrelenting attempt to avoid introducing lower grade tech that could potentially taint its clean-cut brand.

Recently enough, film producers have complained that Apple is completely averse to any content with gratuitous violence, excessive drug use, and candid sex scenes.

Apple wants to cultivate and sell its pristine image.

Digital ads also fail to make the cut.

This spotless image boosts Apple’s pricing power along with the high quality of products that has seen Apple retain its place as the producer of the best smartphone in the world.

Other smart phone brands are still in catchup mode with a brand image significantly inferior to Apple’s.

And Apple CEO Tim Cook isn’t even interested in monetizing Apple music, and is more focused on “doing the right thing” for it.

Yes, the job of every company is to be in the black, but the No. 1 responsibility for a modern tech company is to grow and grow profusely.

Tech investors pay for growth, period.

As investors have seen with Netflix, companies can always raise prices after seizing market share because of the stranglehold on eyeballs inside a walled garden.

That potent formula has been the bread and butter of powerful tech companies of late.

Spotify is a captive of the music industry, of which it is entirely dependent for its source of goods, in this case songs.

At the same time, the music industry has fought tooth and nail to destroy the likes of Spotify, which benefits immensely from distributing the content it creates.

History is littered with failed music streaming services outgunned in the courtroom. Pandora (P) is the biggest public name out there whose share price has tanked over the long haul.

Pandora has created a proprietary algorithm offering song recommendations to listeners, but it is more or less an online music streaming app heavily reliant on a freemium pricing model with ads.

Sirius XM Holdings, a satellite radio company, signaled its intent in the music streaming business by taking a 19% in Pandora’s business last year.

It has followed that up now by completing a full takeover of the Oakland, California company for $3.5 billion.

This move adds 75 million users to its 36 million usership on Sirius and, in my view, the main objective is an eyeball grab to buy more listeners dragging them into its walled garden.

To triple a user base instantly to 75 million listeners is a boon for Sirius, which now has the firepower to legitimately compete with Spotify.

Pandora has been shopping itself around for the past two years, and companies such as Facebook were whispered to be eyeing this company.

Facebook chose to focus on developing dating and romance functions on its platform, and has mainly ignored the music streaming possibilities.

More critically, it allows Sirius to diversify out of the car space where satellite radio is predominantly used.

As much as Americans love to drive, the home is where they rest, and sleep, and Pandora will unlock a path into the home of listeners.

Synergies between home audio through Pandora, and car audio through Sirius should be evident over time.

The music streaming industry, such as the television streaming industry, has become fiercely competitive as of late. And this is a prudent move for Sirius to buy a new customer base at the same time as moving into the home.

The trend of tech companies penetrating the home and making it as smart as possible is revived constantly.

This piece of news isn’t as earth-shattering as Amazon’s (AMZN) smart home product launch event, but nonetheless indicates another leg up in competition for fresh user growth and its data.

This M&A surge is occurring amid a backdrop of the music industry’s obsession to exterminate Spotify and the other music streaming companies.

They are on a mission to force up the royalties these Internet giants must pay to pad their pockets and protect their interests.

Royalties are the music streaming companies’ main cost, and for Spotify, these royalty payments eat up 78% of total revenue.

But that does not mean Spotify is a bad company or even a bad stock.

Every company has its share of pitfalls. Throw in the mix that Amazon (AMZN) and Apple have music streaming services that do not even need to make a profit, and you will understand why some might be wary about putting new money to work in music streaming business stocks.

The primary reason that Spotify shares will outperform for the foreseeable future is because it is the preeminent music streaming platform.

Also, there is favorable latitude to make way toward the goal of monetization, and ample space to improve gross margins.

Global streaming revenue growth has gone ballistic as the migration to mobile devices and cord cutting has exacerbated the monetization prospects of the music industry.

Streaming revenue was a shade under $2 billion in 2013, and continued to post a growth trajectory of more than 40% each year since.

As it stands now, total global streaming revenue registered just a tick under $7 billion per year in 2017, and that was an improvement of 41.1% from 2016.

The choice among choices is Spotify in 2018.

The company was dogged by many years of famous artists removing their proprietary content from the platform citing unfavorable terms.

Eventually, almost all artists have relented and reinstalled their music on Spotify. They depend on alternative moneymaking avenues to compensate for lack of royalties, mainly live music.

Spotify has seized even more industry power with its new function of completely bypassing the music industry altogether, by offering a way for aspiring artists to directly upload music content onto its online platform.

Crushing the middleman has been a widespread theme in the tech industry for the past few decades, and the music industry is no different.

As technology has hyper-accelerated, the cost of producing music has plummeted giving access to just about anyone who has any talent.

No need to rent a sound studio for thousands of dollars per hour anymore in West Hollywood, and the music industry knows it.

It could be possible that the next cohort of viral artists will never cough over a dime to the music industry, and the bulk of the profits will be collected by a music streaming titan that distributes their content online.

How does Spotify make money?

It earns its crust of bread through paid subscriptions but lures in eyeballs using an ad-supported free version of its platform.

Naturally, the paid version is ad-less, and this subscription is around $5 to $15 per month.

In the second quarter, Spotify’s paid subscription volume surpassed 83 million, a sharp uptick of 40% YOY.

Ad-supported users came in at more than 101 million, even under the damage that General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) did to western tech companies.

The ad-supported subscribers rose 23% YOY, and the paid version expects between 85 million to 88 million paid subscribers in the third quarter.

Many of the new paid subscribers are converts from its free model.

Spotify is poised to increase revenue between 20% to 30% for the rest of 2018.

The rise of Spotify's developing data division could extract an additional $580 million of revenue in 2023, making up 2% of total revenue.

When Spotify did go public, the robust price action was with conviction, making major investors - such as China’s Tencent, which possess a 9.1% stake and Tiger Global Management, which owns 7.2% - happy stakeholders.

In the last quarter’s earnings report, Spotify CFO Barry McCarthy reiterated the company’s goal to push gross margins from the mid-20% range to “gross margins in the 30% to 35% range.”

A jump in gross margins would go a long way in making Spotify appear more profitable, and that is the imminent goal right now.

Bask in the glow of the growth sweet spot Spotify finds itself in right now.

For the time being, the music division of Amazon and Apple are just a side note, even with Apple’s purchase of Shazam.

But Apple is vigorously improving its service products as its software and services segment moves from strength to strength, but that doesn’t particularly mean Apple Music.

Investors must sit on their hands to see how Sirius’s acquisition of Pandora plays out. These are by no means two extraordinary companies, and a major overhaul is required to make these two mediocre companies into one overperformer.

If you had to choose among Sirius, Pandora, or Spotify, then cautiously leg into a few shares of Spotify to test the waters.

 

 

 

 

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MHFTR

Say Goodbye to That Gas Guzzler

Diary, Newsletter, Research

Do you want to get in on the ground floor of another major new trend?

Well, here’s another new trend. Get this one right and your retirement funds should multiple like rabbits.

There have been some pretty amazing announcements by governments lately.

The United Kingdom has banned the use of gasoline-powered engines by 2040.

China is considering doing the same by 2035.

And now the State of California is targeting 100% alternative energy use by 2040. That’s only 22 years away.

The only unknown is what such a planned obsolescence program will look like, and how soon it will be implemented.

With 20% of the U.S. car market, don’t take the Golden State’s ruminations lightly.

California was the first state to require safety glass, seat belts, and catalytic converters, and the other 49 eventually had to follow. Some 20% of the market is just too big to ignore.

The death of the car is now upon us, and it is still early, very early.

This is a very big deal.

Earlier in my lifetime, car production directly and indirectly accounted for about one-third of the U.S. economy.

Much of the growth during our earlier Golden Ages, in the 1920s and the 1950s, were driven by a never-ending cycle of upgrades of our favorite form of transportation, and the countless ancillary products and services needed to support them. Tail fins, radios, and tons of chrome assured you always had to have the next new model.

Today, 253 million automobiles and trucks prowl America’s roads, about half the world’s total, with an average age of 11.4 years.

The demise of this crucial industry started during the 2008 crash, when (GM) and Chrysler (owned by Fiat) went bankrupt. Only more conservatively run, family owned Ford (F) survived on its own.

The government stepped in with massive bailouts. That was the cheaper option for the Feds, as the cost of benefits for an entire unemployed industry was far greater than the cost of the companies absorbed.

If it hadn’t done so, the auto industry would have decamped for a new base near the technology hubs in California, and today would be a decade closer to their futures than they are now.

And remember, the government made billions of dollars of profits from its brief foray into the auto industry as an investor. It was one of the best returns on investment in history in major size.

I’ll breakout the major directions the industry is now taking. Hint: It doesn’t have much to do with traditional metal bashing.

The Car as a Peripheral

The important thing about a car today is not the car, but the various doodads, doohickeys, gizmos, and gadgets they stick in them.

In this category you can include 24/7 4G wireless, full Internet access, mapping software, artificial intelligence, and learning programs.

(GM) is now installing more than 100 microprocessors in its vehicles to control and monitor various functions.

Good luck doing your own tune-ups.

The Car as a Service

When you think about it, automobile ownership is a wildly inefficient use of capital. It is usually a family’s second largest expense, after their home, running $30,000 to $80,000.

It then sits unused in garages or public parking for 96% to 98% of the day. Insurance, maintenance, and liability costs can be off the charts.

What if your car was used 24/7, as is machinery in well-run industrial plants? Your cost drops by 96% to 98% to the point where it is almost free.

The sharing economy is the way to accomplish this.

We are already seeing several start-ups attempting to achieve this in major U.S. cities, such as Zipcar, Car2Go, Getaround, RelayRides, and City CarShare.

What happens to conventional car companies when consumers shift from ownership to sharing? Demand plunges by 96% to 98%.

Perhaps that is why auto shares (GM), (F) have performed so abysmally this year relative to technology and the main market.

Self-Driving Technology

This is the hottest development area in the industry, with Apple (AAPL), Alphabet (GOOG), and the big European carmakers committing thousands of engineers.

Let’s say your car is now comfortably driving you to work, allowing you to read the morning papers and catch up on your email. Or maybe you’re lazy and would rather watch the season finale of Game of Thrones.

What else is possible?

How about if, instead of parking, your car drops you off, saving that exorbitant fee.

Then it joins Uber, picking up local riders and paying for its own way. It then dutifully returns to pick you up at your office when it’s time to go home.

Since the crash rate for computers is vastly lower than for humans, car insurance rates will collapse, gutting that industry.

Ditto for life insurance, as 35,000 people a year will no longer die in car crashes.

Half of all emergency room visits are the result of car accidents, so that business disappears too, dramatically shrinking health care costs in the process.

I have been letting my new Tesla S-1 drive me since last year, and I can assure you that the car can drive better than I can, especially at night.

What better way to get home after I have downed a bottle of Caymus cabernet at a city restaurant?

Driverless electric cars are totally silent, increasing the value of land near freeways.

Nor do they require much maintenance, as they have so few moving parts. Exit the car repair industry.

I could go on and on, but you get the general idea.

For more on the topic, please read “Test Driving Tesla's Self Driving Technology” by clicking here.

Virtual Reality

After 30 years of inadequate infrastructure budgets, trying to get into any America city center is a complete nightmare.

Only last week, a cattle truck turned over on the Golden Gate Bridge, bringing traffic to a halt. Fortunately, a cowboy traveling to a nearby rodeo was able to unload his horse and lasso the errant critters (no, it wasn’t me!).

Even if you get into the city, you will be greeted by a $40 tab for a parking space. Hopefully, no one will smash your windows and steal your laptop (happened to me last year).

Why bother?

Thirty years ago, teleconferencing services pitched themselves as replacing the airplane.

Today, we are taking the next step, using Skype and GoToMeeting to conduct even local meetings, as we do at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader.

Virtual reality is clearly the next step, providing a 3D, 360 degree experience that makes you feel like you and your products are actually there.

Better to leave that car in the garage where it can get a top up on its charge. BART is cheaper anyway, when it runs.

New Materials

We are probably five years away from adopting the carbon fiber technology now used in the aircraft industry for mass-market cars. Carbon has one-tenth the weight of steel, with five times the strength.

The next great leap forward for electric cars won’t be through better batteries. It will come through a 70% reduction of the mass of a car, tripling ranges with existing technology.

San Francisco Becomes the Car Capital of the World

This will definitely NOT happen, as sky-high rents assure that the city by the bay will never attract large, labor-intensive industries.

Instead, the industry will develop much as the one for smartphones. The high value-added aspects, design and programming, will stay in California.

The assembly of the chassis, the body, and the rest of the vehicle will be best done in low-cost, tax-free states with a lot of land, such as Texas and Nevada.

What will happen to Detroit? It has already become a favored destination of new venture capital financial start-ups - the cost of offices and housing is virtually free.

 

 

 

 

 

Seems Alive to Me

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