(LAST CHANCE TO ATTEND THE FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 7 PERTH, AUSTRALIA STRATEGY LUNCHEON)
(JANUARY 22 BIWEEKLY STRATEGY WEBINAR Q&A),
(BA), (IBM), (DAL), (RCL), (WFC),
(JPM), (USO), (UNG), (KOL), (XLF),
(SEE YOU IN TWO WEEKS)
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Below please find subscribers’ Q&A for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader January 22Global Strategy Webinar broadcast from Silicon Valley, CA with my guest and co-host Bill Davis of the Mad Day Trader. Keep those questions coming! Q: Are you concerned about a kitchen sink earnings report on Boeing (BA) next week?
A: No, every DAY has been a kitchen sink for Boeing for the past year! Everyone is expecting the worst, and I think we’re probably going to try to hold around the $300 level. You can’t imagine a company with more bad news than Boeing and it's actually acting as a serious drag on the entire economy since Boeing accounts for about 3% of US GDP. If (BA) doesn’t break $300, you should buy it with both hands as all the bad news will be priced in. That's why I am long Boeing.
Q: Do you think IBM is turning around with its latest earnings report?
A: They may be—They could have finally figured out the cloud, which they are only 20 years late getting into. They’ve been a lagging technology stock for years. If they can figure out the cloud, then they may have a future. They obviously poured a lot into AI but have been unable to make any money off of it. Lots of PR but no profits. People are looking for cheap stuff with the market this high and (IBM) certainly qualifies.
Q: Will the travel stocks like airlines and cruise companies get hurt by the coronavirus?
A: Absolutely, yes; and you’re seeing some pretty terrible stock performance in these companies, like Delta (DAL), the cruise companies like Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL), and the transports, which have all suffered major hits.
Q: Will the Wells Fargo (WFC) shares ever rebound? They are the cheapest of the major banks.
A: Someday, but they still have major management problems to deal with, and it seems like they’re getting $100 million fines every other month. I would stay away. There are better fish to fry, even in this sector, like JP Morgan (JPM).
Q: Will a decrease in foreign direct investment hurt global growth this year?
A: For sure. The total CEO loss of confidence in the economy triggered by the trade war brought capital investment worldwide to a complete halt last year. That will likely continue this year and will keep economic growth slow. We’re right around a 2% level right now and will probably see lower this quarter once we get the next set of numbers. To see the stock market rise in the face of falling capital spending is nothing short of amazing.
Q: Do you think regulation is getting too cumbersome for corporations?
A: No, regulation is at a 20-year low for corporations, especially if you’re an oil (USO), gas (UNG) or coal producer (KOL), or in the financial industry (XLF). That’s one of the reasons that these stocks are rising as quickly as they have been. What follows a huge round of deregulation? A financial crisis, a crashing stock market, and a huge number of bankruptcies.
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Below please find subscribers’ Q&A for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader January 8Global Strategy Webinar broadcast from Silicon Valley, CA with my guest and co-host Bill Davis of the Mad Day Trader. Keep those questions coming!
Q: If the market is doing so well, why is the Fed flooding the market with liquidity?
A: It’s election year, so their primary focus is to get the president reelected and do everything they can to make sure that happens. If we continue at the current rate, the Fed will have zero ability to get us out of the next recession which will make it much deeper than it would be otherwise. Doing this level of borrowing and keeping interest rates near zero with the stock market going up 30% a year is insane, and we will be severely punished for it in the future.
Q: With the Volatility Index (VIX) near a 12-month low and the Mad Hedge Market Timing Index near an all-time high, is this a good time to put on LEAPs for the (VXX)?
A: Yes, in fact, a (VXX) LEAP (Long Term Equity Participation Security, or one-year-plus option spread), is the only LEAP I would put on right now. I get asked about LEAPs every day because returns on them are so huge, but I am holding back on a trade alert on a (VXX) leap because it seems like in January they really want to run this market high and run volatility down low. On the next move to a (VIX) in the $11 handle, you want to put out a one-year LEAP with a $16 strike. And that is essentially a guarantee that you will make money sometime in the coming year on a big down move in the stock market. (VXX) LEAPs are coming, just not yet.
Q: Do you think Iran is done with their attacks against the US or will there be more?
A: The belief there will be no more attacks is to call the end of a 40-year trend. There will be more attacks, and those are going to be your long side entry points. Every geopolitical crisis for the last 10 years has been a great entry point on the long side and the next one will be no different. Just hope you are not one of the victims.
Q: What would a war with Iran mean for the US economy and should I buy defense stocks?
A: You can take the Iraq war, which cost us about $4 trillion, and multiply that by three times to $12 trillion because Iran’s economy is three times the size of Iraq and has a much more sophisticated military. The Iranians are really in a good position because they know the US has no appetite for another Iraq, Afghanistan, or Vietnam. They just want us out of their neighborhood. As far as defense stocks, those really move on very long-term investments and production for government contracts. When you get an attack like this, you get a one-day pop of 5% and then they usually give it all back. So, I wouldn't be chasing defense stocks like Lockheed Martin (LMT), Northrop Grumman (NOC), and Raytheon (RTN) at these high levels—it’s a very high-risk trade.
Q: Will Boeing (BA) take heat from the Ukrainian crash in Tehran?
A: Yes. It’s down about $5, and you might even consider running the numbers on a February call spread. This may be the last chance to get into Boeing at those low levels. The 737 MAX will fly this year, their most important product.
Q: What’s your opinion on Thai Baht?
A: This really is the home here for opinion on all asset classes, large and small. The Thai Baht will rise. It’s a weak dollar play. Money is pouring into all the emerging currencies because of the massive overborrowing that’s going on in the U.S. Countries that overborrow and print money like crazy always debase their currencies over the long term. That makes emerging markets (EEM) a great buy, which are trading at half the valuation levels of US ones.
Q: U.S. hog farmers missed the opportunity of a lifetime last year because of African Swine Flu. Any thoughts on the price of pork and commodities for 2020?
A: They should do better now that we’re at least getting relief from an escalation of the trade war. However, I gave up covering agriculture because the American farmer is just too efficient; every year they just produce more and more crops with fewer and fewer inputs—it’s a loser’s game. They occasionally get bad weather and get a big price spike, but that Is totally unpredictable. I'm staying away from ag stocks. In terms of buying soybeans or Apple, or Google, or Amazon, I’ll take the tech stocks any day over ag’s. Plus, the insiders have a big advantage in ag’s.
Q: What is the ticker symbol for the Silver ETFs?
A: The Silver metal ETF is (SLV), Silver miners is (SIL), and the Silver Royalty Trust, Wheaton Precious Metals, is (WPM).
Q: Why has volatility been so minimal even with massive geopolitical risk going up?
A: Liquidity trumps all. This month, the fed is pumping a record $160 billion into the financial system, and all that money is going into stocks, making them go up and making volatility go down. Until that changes, this trend will continue.
Q: Apple just passed $300, is the next stop $400?
A: Yes, and we could get that this year in the run up to 5G in September. By the way, my average cost on my Apple shares split adjusted is 50 cents. I bought it in the late 1990s when the company was weeks away from bankruptcy.
Q: Any thoughts on Tesla (TSLA)?
A: Yes, go out and buy the car, not the stock. Wait for some kind of pullback. We have just had a fantastic run of good news kicking the stock from $180 up to $490. I think we will make it up to $550 on this run. But you don’t want to get involved unless you’re a day trader because now the risk is very high. The next big move for Tesla is going to be the announcement of a production factory in Berlin, where they will try to take on Mercedes, BMW, VW, and Audi on their home turf. Then, they will own Europe.
Good Luck and Good Trading
John Thomas
CEO & Publisher
The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader
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Below please find subscribers’ Q&A for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader December 18Global Strategy Webinar broadcast from Silicon Valley, CA with my guest and co-host Bill Davis of the Mad Day Trader. Keep those questions coming!
Q: What is the status of Boeing (BA) and when should I buy it?
A: Their 737 production was shut down because they literally ran out of space to park completed planes. They have something like 400 of them now sitting around on tarmacs all around northern Washington state. This is the worst-case scenario so it is a very tempting place to buy; I would do something like a February 2020 $250-$270 vertical bull call spread, make 10% in a month, and be conservative. If it weren't year-end, and I didn't already have my year in the bag, I would probably buy Boeing right here.
Q: Do you recommend CRISPR (CRSP) therapeutics as a buy?
A: Yes, but on a dip. I always hate buying stocks after they doubled. At some point in 2020, we will see correction in biotech stocks, and then you want to load the boat again. Here, I’m buying nothing.
Q: Is Palo Alto Networks (PANW) a buy at these levels?
A: Yes, it’s already had its correction—it's one of the few stocks that are buyable at these levels. But I would do something like a call spread, which is limited risk. As far as a pairs trade with Palo Alto vs Nvidia...I would not touch that with a ten-foot pole, because you can’t know the internal nature of two companies like that well enough to buy one and sell short the other against it. You could really get destroyed on that pairs trade, so don’t make that mistake.
Q: Do you think the US dollar (UUP) will head higher or lower next year?
A: It will go a lot lower, as the chickens from all the government borrowing come home to roost. More borrowing brings a lower dollar, which brings lower everything in the US; all US dollar-denominated assets will get hurt, and this may be what eventually kills off the bull market in stocks. Start buying the Euro (FXE) on dips.
Q: What do you think about Boris Johnson winning the UK election?
A: It is a disaster and will lead to the end of Great Britain. Scotland will go independent, Northern Ireland will join the Republic of Ireland, and even Wales may break off and form its own country. So, England will be reduced to a tiny rump of a country with a much lower standard of living. It may take 10 years to happen, but that’s where it’s going.
Q: Does the recent positive housing data mean we aren’t having a recession in 2020?
A: Yes, in fact the market has been backing out of a 2020 recession for the last three months; and the leading sector in the recovery has been housing, caused partly by extremely low-interest rates but also partly by millions of new millennials pouring into the housing market for the first time. Finally, my basement is empty. That explains why the entry-level and middle level of the market are strong, and the high end is still decreasing in price.
Q: Back in August, the global economy looked to be stalling, yet it was a great time to buy stocks.
A: That is exactly when to buy stocks—when the economy is terrible. If you get used to buying on the bad news and selling on the good news you will do very well as a trader. Most people do the opposite—people were dumping stocks in August. And that of course was when we went with one of our rare 100% longs. By the way, this happens every August, which is why I take my vacations in July.
Q: Do you see a global slowdown during the melt-up?
A: Well, the economy is still slowing down. It never stopped slowing down—we’re probably looking at a 1.5% GDP this quarter. However, in liquidity-driven markets, you don’t look at fundamentals; you look at the amount of cash that is available to buy equities, that’s why you buy equities. That said, if we ever do get a real economic recovery, you might actually have stocks going down because a price-earnings multiple of 20X is not an ideal place to buy stocks.
Q: What do you prefer for a Volatility Index (VIX) trade?
A: An option on the iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Short Term Futures ETN (VXX) is one. Go long dates, like a year, and deep out-of-the-money, like the $18 strike price, to minimize the hot from Time decay. If your (VIX) goes back up to $25 the (VXX) will soar to $27 and you will make a fortune.
However, if you have the facility to trade futures, then options on the futures in the VIX is how most professionals will trade that.
Q: Should we be worried about the Repo crisis as we approach the end of the quarter?
A: Absolutely, you should be worried—the Fed might have to come through with another round of quantitative easing in order to prevent a surprise overnight pop in interest rates to 5%. That’s what happened last quarter; it could certainly happen again. The basic problem is that the structure of the US debt markets aren't built to handle the volume of borrowing that’s coming through from the US government, so with debt at an all-time high, we’re kind of in new territory here in terms of whether or not markets can actually handle that amount of borrowing. Total government borrowing next year will probably be $1.75 trillion dollars.
Q: What do you make of gold (GLD) at these levels?
A: Cheap but getting cheaper. You want to buy it the day the stock market peaks out in Q1 2020.
Q: Are Chinese equities a buy after the phase one trade deal?
A: Yes, and Alibaba (BABA) is probably your first pick in the Chinese area. During the whole trade war, the Chinese took significant action to stimulate their economy in order to offset the drag on trade. That stimulus is still out there, so we could see a reacceleration in the economy now that the trade war is no longer worsening.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/john-thomas-1-e1617821870182.png356400Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2019-12-20 07:02:492020-05-11 14:03:47December 18 Biweekly Strategy Webinar Q&A
Below please find subscribers’ Q&A for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader December 4Global Strategy Webinar broadcast from Silicon Valley, CA with my guest and co-host Bill Davis of the Mad Day Trader. Keep those questions coming!
Q: How do you see the markets playing out in 2020?
A: Well, I’m looking at small single-digit positive returns with a lot of volatility. Much of this year’s performance—30% in the S&P 500 (SPY), up 56% for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader—has already been pulled forward from 2020, thanks to super low interest rates and massive deficit spending. So, the more money we make now, the less money we make next year.
Q: How deep will the next recession be?
A: I’m looking for two quarters of small negative numbers like -0.1% or -0.2%, and then it’s off to the races again. That’s when the Golden Age of the Next Roaring Twenties starts, which I have already written a book about (click here).
And it’s possible we may not even see any negative numbers on a quarterly basis; we may just get close to zero, threatening it without actually breaking it. Of course, you could still get a 20% correction in the overall stock market if they only THINK we are going into recession, which has happened many times in the last 10 years.
Q: Are you expecting a market crash?
A: No; I do expect a meaningful pullback but frankly, right now, I do not see the conditions in place for that. None of the traditional causes of recessions, high-interest rates or high oil prices, are evident yet. The biggest threat to the market right now is the 2020 presidential election. And we are at a 14-year high in stock valuations.
Q: How bad will it get for car makers, and will the Tesla (TSLA) plant in Germany affect sales for European cars?
A: European carmakers have already been badly affected by Tesla, with Tesla taking over practically the entire luxury end of the market—that’s why companies like Mercedes, Audi and BMW are doing so badly with their shares, and they’re so far behind it’s unlikely they’ll ever catch up. The Berlin factory, I believe, is a battery factory, and after that, there will be a vehicle production factory, probably somewhere in eastern Europe where the cost basis is much lower.
Q: Double Line Capital’s CEO Jeff Gundlach says the US will get crushed in the next recession? Do you agree with him?
A: Well, my first advice to you is never take stock advice from a bond trader. Jeff Gundlach makes these spectacular forecasts, but the timing can be terrible. He can be wrong for 9 months before they finally turn. So, you can go out of business trading off of Jeff Gundlach’s stock advice, though his bond advice is valuable.
Q: Do you have any good recommendations for dividend stocks?
A: Yes, look at the entire cellphone towers REIT sector. That will be a growth sector next year with 5G rolling out and they have very high dividend yields. We’re going to get a significant increase in the number of cell towers thanks to 5G, and there are REITs specifically dedicated to cellphone towers. An example is Crown Castle (CCI), which has a generous 3.45% dividend yield.
Q: Are we in the final stages of a blow-off top for the stock market?
A: Yes, but blow-off tops can continue for many months, so don’t rush to sell short. However, next time the VIX gets down to 11, start buying six-month call options on the Volatility Index (VIX) at the $20 strike price. Go far out in the calendar to minimize time decay and far out of the money on strike prices to maximize your bang per buck.
Q: Gold had a nice day on Monday—is this the start of a reversal from the selling pressure?
A: No, as long as the market is pushing to new highs, which it seems to be doing—you don’t want to be anywhere near gold; wait for a better opening lower down.
Q: Are you sending Trade Alerts out on the Mad Hedge Biotech & Healthcare letter?
A: Not in the form that we see in Global Trading Dispatch or the Mad Hedge Technology Letter. Essentially, everything we’ve put out so far has been a long term buy. Most people know nothing about these sectors and we’re trying to get them into buyable names. So far, we’ve issued “BUYS” for 20 different companies; all of them have gone straight up. So, it’s really more of a long term buy-in hold situation. Since we’re in the very early days of the boom in biotech and healthcare stocks, you don’t want to leave money on the table with short term trade alerts for call spreads when there is a double or triple in the stock at hand. We are doing call spreads in the main market where most stocks are already at all-time highs in order to limit our risk.
Q: Fidelity just said that 50% of baby boomers who manage their own portfolio should rebalance it. What do you think is the best way to optimize my portfolio, as a baby boomer born in 1954?
A: You should always rebalance every year, especially when you get enormous moves in single sectors. The interesting thing this year is that everything went up, so you may not need to rebalance that much. When I say rebalance, I’m referring to rebalancing your weightings of stocks vs bonds. If you’re over 50, you want to have roughly a 50/50 ratio on those. That would suggest pairing back some of your equity weightings, increasing your bond weighting because stocks (SPY) (30% total return) have risen a lot more than bonds (TLT) (19% total return) this year.
Q: Marijuana stock Tilray (TLRY) has just had a pitiful year going from $100 to $20 and missed earnings targets for 4 for straight quarters. Could this go to zero?
A: Yes; after all, how hard is it to grow a weed? I never bought the story on the whole marijuana sector, not only because they are not allowed to participate in the financial sector. It’s an all-cash business; you hear about people moving around suitcases full of $100 bills doing deals in Oakland and Denver. I believe anybody can do this. My real estate agent is quitting his business to go into cannabis farming. Additionally, they’re getting a lot of competition from the black market where everybody used to buy their marijuana because it’s tax-free. There’s about a 40% price difference between the tax-paying legal form of marijuana and the tax-free black market where people used to get their marijuana. There’s no great value added there. It’s not like they’re designing a 96 stack microprocessor.
Q: What do you think about Ali Baba (BABA), the Chinese internet giant?
A: I love it long term. Short term, it will be subject to trade war gyration; so use the big dips to buy into it because long term we come out of this.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/john-christmas-trees-e1577182165465.png380500Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2019-12-06 09:02:522019-12-06 09:14:31December 4 Biweekly Strategy Webinar Q&A
All of a sudden, and without warning, a buying panic has ensued in the stock market, breaking it out of a tedious two-year range.
The many concerns that kept investors out of stocks, like the trade war, interest rates, and a global economic slowdown, were shaken off like water off the back of a wet dog.
I could see all this coming. Even with my Mad Hedge Market Timing Index at 86, and trading as high as 91, screaming “SELL” I have been ignoring it. It usually has to spend 2-4 weeks at these elevated levels to make a real top anyway. Hedge fund compatriots who were sucked into selling too early by their own inferior in-house algorithms have been stopping out in great pain.
I’ll tell you the people who are really screwed by this move. Those who watched the economic data deteriorate all year, cut their equity allocations to the bone, and only started chasing the market upward once it broke new ground. It is a strategy that can only end in tears.
We here at Mad Hedge Fund Trader did a lot better. Followers of Global Trading Dispatch missed the breakout but bought every major dive of 2019. With double a good year’s performance in hand, we have no need to chase.
The newer Mad Hedge Technology Letter and Mad Hedge Biotechand Healthcare Letter have continued to go long pedal to the metal bringing in double-digit gains for all. Above all, we took profit on no less than four positions on Friday.
Can the market grind higher? Absolutely, yes. The world is awash in cash looking for any kind of return, and US stocks, with a (SPY) 1.81% dividend, are among the world’s highest yielding. In fact, the move could continue until the end of the year.
When will I come back in? After we get a substantial dip. Disciplines are useless unless you stick to them. In the meantime, while stocks are going crazy, there is fertile ground to harvest in other asset classes. I bought bonds (TLT) at the bottom last week and they are already performing nicely.
If you remember, I sold short, and then bought oil (USO) in September, taking advantage of a spate of volatility there. Such is the advantage of an all-asset class strategy I have been preaching and teaching for the past 12 years.
There will be no interest rate cuts in 2020, says Fed chairman Jay Powell, reading in between the lines. To do so would undermine our ability to get out of the next recession. We are still way below the 2.0% inflation target in this deflationary world.
The de-inversion of the yield curve is clearly driving stocks, with long term interest rates at last higher than short term ones. The markets are backing the recession out of the forecast. “Fear of missing out” is replacing just fear. Consumer Prices rose faster than expected as tariffs feed into prices, up 0.4% in October. It’s going to take a lot more than that to move the needle on inflation. The YOY rate climbed to 1.8%. Also, US Producer Prices jumped, up 0.4% in October, a six-month high. It’s going to take a lot more than this to start ringing the inflation bell.
Weekly Jobless Claims soared by 14,000 to 225,000. It’s the first big jump in many months. Is the employment top in? Is this the end of the beginning or the beginning of the end?
Charles Schwab (SCHW) trading accounts soared 31%, in the wake of the commission cut to zero. What happens when you lower the price? You sell more of them. It’s a classic law of supply and demand. Uber founder dumped stocks, as Travis Kalanick unloads $700 million worth of shares. He’s not selling because he can’t think of new ways to spend the money. It’s not exactly a “BUY” recommendation, is it? Avoid (UBER) like the plague. Apple hit a new all-time high at $264, on three broker upgrades, with the high end reaching $290. The market capitalization tops $1.2 trillion, making it the world’s largest publicly-traded company. It looks like I’m going to have to increase my own target from a conservative $200. I made this prediction when the newsletter started a decade ago and the share traded under $20. People said I was nuts, except Steve Jobs. The Tesla Model 3 returns to “reliable” list, from Consumer Reports. They had been taken off due to pieces falling off new cars and failing transmissions exactly at the 44,000-mile mark. It was all covered by warranty, of course. Looks like Elon is figuring out how to put these things together and stay that way. It follows an onslaught of good news about the company that has wiped out the shorts. Who is last on the quality list now? Cadillac. Buy (TSLA) on dips. US short interest falls 1.6%, to 16.8 billion shares, as hedge funds scramble to limit losses. It’s got to be at least half the current net buying. Disney launched its streaming service, Disney Plus, at $6.99 a month. The site crashed from overwhelming demand. It’s a problem I wish I had. Netflix (NFLX) won’t go under but their growth will be clearly impaired. Let the streaming wars begin! Buy (DIS) on dips. US Productivity plunged sharply, down 0.3% in Q3. It’s completely a result of the trade war-induced freeze on capital spending by US businesses this year. It means we’re eating out seed corn to grow. This was a week for the Mad Hedge Trader Alert Service to stay level. With only one position left, a bargain long in (TLT), not much else was going to happen. My long position in Boeing (BA) expired on Friday at its maximum profit point.
By the way, running out of positions at a market top is a good thing.
My Global Trading Dispatch performance held steady at +349.38% for the past ten years, pennies short of an all-time high. My 2019 year-to-date leveled out at +48.68%. So far in November, we are down a miniscule -0.31%. My ten-year average annualized profit held steady at +35.17%.
With my Mad Hedge Market Timing Index sitting around the sky-high 86 level, it is firmly in “SELL” territory and at a three-year high. The markets have been up in a straight line for 2 ½ months.
The coming week is pretty non-eventful of the data front after last week’s fireworks. Maybe the stock market will be non-eventful as well.
On Monday, November 18 at 11:00 AM, the US NAHB Housing Market Index for November is out. On Tuesday, November 19 at 9:30 AM, US Housing Starts for October are released.
On Wednesday, November 20 at 2:00 PM, the Fed’s FOMC Minutes for their October meeting are published.
On Thursday, November 7, at 8:30 AM, Weekly Jobless Claims come out. At 11:00 AM the October Existing Home Sales are announced. On Friday, November 8 at 11:00 AM, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment is out.
The Baker Hughes Rig Count follows at 2:00 PM.
As for me, I am going to see the latest Harry Potter play on Saturday, Harry Potter and the Cursed Child. It’s a reward for two kids who got straight A’s on their report cards. They seem to be strangely good at math. Maybe the apple doesn’t fall far from the tree.
Good luck and good trading.
John Thomas
CEO & Publisher
The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader
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