Mad Hedge Biotech & Healthcare Letter
March 9, 2021
Fiat Lux
FEATURED TRADE:
(AN MRNA STOCK TO CONSIDER)
(BNTX), (MRNA), (PFE), (NVS), (SNY), (AZN), (JNJ), (NVAX), (MRK), (BMY), (REGN), (DNA), (CVAC), (FB), (TSLA), (GOOG)
Mad Hedge Biotech & Healthcare Letter
March 9, 2021
Fiat Lux
FEATURED TRADE:
(AN MRNA STOCK TO CONSIDER)
(BNTX), (MRNA), (PFE), (NVS), (SNY), (AZN), (JNJ), (NVAX), (MRK), (BMY), (REGN), (DNA), (CVAC), (FB), (TSLA), (GOOG)
Mad Hedge Biotech & Healthcare Letter
February 18, 2021
Fiat Lux
FEATURED TRADE:
(WARREN BUFFETT’S BIOPHARMACEUTICAL BETS)
(MRK), (ABBV), (BMY), (PFE), (NKTR), (VZ), (CVX), (AAPL), (BRK.B)
Aside from the recent big moves involving Verizon Communications (VZ), Chevron (CVX), and Apple (AAPL), Warren Buffett has also been busy with biopharmaceutical stocks.
Just before 2020 ended, Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) made notable changes in its positions particularly in Merck (MRK), AbbVie (ABBV), Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY), and Pfizer (PFE).
Berkshire boosted its investment in Merck by 28.1% to reach 28.7 million shares.
Meanwhile, its AbbVie holdings were increased by 20% to hit 25.5 million shares.
It also added 11.2% in its investments in Bristol, totaling to 33.3 million shares.
In contrast, the company cut 3.7 million shares from its Pfizer holdings.
In terms of growth potential, these biopharmaceutical companies hold the most promising prospects in the next decade.
Merck, hailed as a vaccine stalwart, is behind the blockbuster cancer treatment Keytruda.
For context, Keytruda generated $14.4 billion in sales in 2020 alone.
Despite fears over the expiring patent exclusivity of this drug, the company still trades at roughly 11.5 times earnings and is actually projected to achieve 11% long-term EPS growth rate.
Merck also continues to leverage Keytruda in the development of the next generation of treatments in its pipeline.
In fact, the company recently sealed a clinical collaboration with Nektar Therapeutics (NKTR) to assess the effectiveness of Keytruda when combined with Nektar’s own bempegaldesleukin in the treatment of squamous cell carcinoma.
Other than expanding its oncology sector, Merck has been developing its animal health business as well. So far, this particular segment has grown by 7% year over year, reaching $4.7 billion in 2020.
If things work out, then Merck could emerge as a huge competitor against Pfizer’s own animal healthcare spinoff, Zoetis (ZTS), in the future.
To date, Merck has at least 31 candidates in Phase 2 trials and 25 more undergoing Phase 3 studies.
Needless to say, these will be valuable in enriching the company’s lineup especially with the challenges that Keytruda will face in the next years.
As for AbbVie, this company trades at approximately 8.3 times the earnings estimated in the next 12 months. This is well below its five-year average of 10.4 times earnings.
However, the company is projected to show at least 13% EPS growth rate in the long term.
Despite the challenges of 2020, with the company going down 2.6%, the long-term prospects for AbbVie remain positive.
Although AbbVie broke through the dermatology market following its acquisition of Botox-maker Allergan in the past year, it still has to contend with a major problem: arthritis medication Humira.
Humira is not only AbbVie’s top-selling treatment but also the best selling drug in the world today.
In 2020 alone, this anti-inflammatory treatment raked in $19.8 billion in sales. However, AbbVie might soon lose this edge since its exclusive rights to Humira in the US will expire in 2023.
Amidst the anxiety over this issue though, AbbVie continues to defy expectations.
Last year, the company reported a 65.9% growth in its net revenue despite the overall slowdown caused by the pandemic.
As for 2021, AbbVie is anticipating an even better year thanks to its portfolio diversification efforts.
To date, the company’s lineup now spans neuroscience, immunology, eye care, women’s health, and of course, aesthetics.
Meanwhile, Bristol Myers has been pegged to achieve roughly 8% growth rate in the long term. Right now, the stock trade at 7.9 times earnings estimated over the next 12 months.
Like AbbVie and Merck, Bristol has been dealing with patent expiration issues—a problem that pushed its stock down by 4.1% so far this year.
One of the major updates involving Bristol is its massive $74 billion acquisition of Celgene in 2019.
While the deal raised a lot of eyebrows at the time, it brought cancer blockbuster Revlimid into the company’s fold.
Revlimid, which still enjoys protection from a flood of generics for a few more years, has been pumping up sales for Celgene nonstop for over a decade. The drug is expected to generate the same, if not higher, profits for Bristol.
Two more blockbuster drugs in Bristol’s lineup are facing impending patent exclusivity issues, Opdivo, which would expire in 2028, and Eliquis in 2026.
Nonetheless, the positives outweigh the negatives for Bristol. After all, this company invested so much in diversification.
Sales of Opdivo, Revlimid, and Eliquis continued to trend upwards last year.
Opdivo alone managed to generate $7 billion in annual revenue, prompting Bristol to expand the indications for this product.
However, the more promising news lies in the updates that the recently launched products, like multiple sclerosis drug Zeposia and anemia treatment Reblozyl, are gaining traction in the market.
Thanks to the development of its pipeline, the company expects that its new product lineup would account for roughly 27% of its total revenues by 2025.
Overall, Berkshire’s choice of biopharmaceutical companies are offering promising growths in the next several years despite the setbacks they are facing today.
While some investors get alarmed over negative updates, it looks like the Oracle of Omaha is following his own advice: “Whether we're talking about socks or stocks, I like buying quality merchandise, when it is marked down.”
Global Market Comments
February 2, 2021
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(MY NEWLY UPDATED LONG-TERM PORTFOLIO),
(PFE), (BMY), (AMGN), (CELG), (CRSP), (FB), (PYPL), (GOOGL), (AAPL), (AMZN), (SQ), (JPM), (BAC), (MS), (GS), (BABA), (EEM), (FXA), (FCX), (GLD), (SLV), (TLT)
I am really happy with the performance of the Mad Hedge Long Term Portfolio since the last update on July 21, 2020. In fact, not only did we nail the best sectors to go heavily overweight, we also completely dodged the bullets in the worst-performing ones.
For new subscribers, the Mad Hedge Long Term Portfolio is a “buy and forget” portfolio of stocks and ETFs. If trading is not your thing, these are the investments you can make, and then not touch until you start drawing down your retirement funds at age 72.
For some of you, that is not for another 50 years. For others, it was yesterday.
There is only one thing you need to do now and that is to rebalance. Buy or sell what you need to reweight every position to its appropriate 5% or 10% weighting. Rebalancing is one of the only free lunches out there and always adds performance over time. You should follow the rules assiduously.
Despite the seismic changes that have taken place in the global economy over the past nine months, I only need to make minor changes to the portfolio, which I have highlighted below.
To download the entire new portfolio in an excel spreadsheet, please go to www.madhedgefundtrader.com, log in, go “My Account”, then “Global Trading Dispatch”, then click on the “Long Term Portfolio” button.
Changes
I am cutting back my weighting in biotech from 25% to 20% because Celgene (CELG) was taken over by Bristol Myers (BMY) at a 110% profit compared to our original cost. We also earned a spectacular 145% gain on Crisper Therapeutics (CRSP). I’m keeping it because I believe it has more to run.
My 30% weighting in technology also gets pared back to 20% because virtually all of my names have doubled or more. These have been in a sideways correction for the past six months but are still an important part of any barbell portfolio. So, take out Facebook (FB) and PayPal (PYPL) and keep the rest.
I am increasing my weighting in banks from 10% to 20%. Interest rates are finally starting to rise, setting up a perfect storm in favor of bank earnings. Loan default rates are falling. Banks are overcapitalized, thanks to Dodd-Frank. And because of the trillions in government stimulus loans they are disbursing, they are now the most subsidized sector of the economy. So, add in Morgan Stanley (MS) and Goldman Sachs (GS), which will profit enormously from a continuing bull market in stocks.
Along the same vein, I am committing 10% of my portfolio to a short position in the United States Treasury Bond Fund (TLT) as I think bonds are about to go to hell in a handbasket. I rant on this sector on an almost daily basis, so go read Global Trading Dispatch.
I am keeping my 10% international exposure in Chinese Internet giant Alibaba (BABA) and the iShares MSCI Emerging Market ETF (EEM). The Biden administration will most likely dial back the recent vociferous anti-Chinese stance, setting these names on fire.
I am also keeping my foreign currency exposure unchanged, maintaining a double long in the Australian dollar (FXA). The Aussie has been the best performing currency against the US dollar and that should continue.
Australia will be a leveraged beneficiary of the synchronized global economic recovery, both through strong commodity prices and gold which has already started to rise, and the post-pandemic return of Chinese tourism and investment. I argue that the Aussie will eventually make it to parity with the US dollar, or 1:1.
As for precious metals, I’m baling on my 10% holding in gold (GLD), which delivered a nice 20% gain in 2020. From here, it is having trouble keeping up with other alternative assets, like Bitcoin, and there are better fish to fry.
Yes, in this liquidity-driven global bull market, a 20% return is just not enough to keep my interest. Instead, I add a 5% weighting in the higher beta and more volatile iShares Silver Trust (SLV), which has far wider industrial uses in solar panels and electric vehicles.
As for energy, I will keep my weighting at zero. Never confuse “gone down a lot” with “cheap”. I think the bankruptcies have only just started and will stretch on for a decade. Thanks to hyper-accelerating technology, the adoption of electric cars, and less movement overall in the new economy, energy is about to become free. You are looking at the next buggy whip industry.
My ten-year assumption for the US and the global economy remains the same. I’m looking at 3%-5% a year growth for the next decade.
When we come out the other side of this, we will be perfectly poised to launch into my new American Golden Age, or the next Roaring Twenties. With interest rates still at zero, oil cheap, there will be no reason not to. The Dow Average will rise by 400% or more in the coming decade. The America coming out the other side of the pandemic will be far more efficient, productive, and profitable than the old.
You won’t believe what’s coming your way!
I hope you find this useful and I’ll be sending out another update in six months so you can rebalance once again.
Stay healthy.
John Thomas
CEO & Publisher
The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader
Mad Hedge Biotech & Healthcare Letter
January 28, 2021
Fiat Lux
FEATURED TRADE:
(WATCH OUT FOR THESE BUYOUT STOCKS)
(TBIO), (MRNA), (PFE), (BNTX), (SNY), (BLUE), (BMY)
Many predictions this 2021 probably won’t pan out. However, here’s a pretty safe bet: we will see a number of biotechnology company acquisitions this year.
Although it’s not easy to accurately forecast which biotechnology companies will be involved in these deals, there is a handful that qualifies as prime acquisition targets.
One of the top biotech buyout candidates in my radar this year is Translate Bio (TBIO).
Thanks to the massive success of the COVID-19 programs of Moderna (MRNA), Pfizer (PFE), and BioNTech (BNTX), a spotlight has been cast on the benefits of the messenger RNA (mRNA) technology.
That’s why I wouldn’t be surprised if bigger players in the healthcare industry decide to scoop up smaller players to stake a claim in this quickly growing space.
Among all the small-cap biotechs in play, Translate Bio is easily one of the top prospects.
Before Moderna and BioNTech hogged the spotlight with their mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccines, Translate Bio was actually one of the strong contenders in the race. Unfortunately, it failed to keep up with its peers and is now lagging well behind the leaders.
On the flip side, the attention that mRNA technology has been getting these days seemed to have strengthened the confidence of investors in the technology – an effect that Translate Bio greatly benefited from in the past months.
Despite its lagging performance in the COVID-19 race, Translate Bio has been making significant progress with its work with partner Sanofi (SNY) on their own candidate, MRT5500. If all goes well, then the product should be out by the first quarter of 2021.
Apart from that, the two have been focusing on different vaccine candidates for other viral and bacterial diseases.
Translate Bio’s pipeline also includes treatments targeting another lucrative market using the same MRT platform technology as MRT5500: cystic fibrosis (CF).
The company’s CF treatment has been causing excitement among investors because instead of offering invasive therapy, this option offers patients an inhaled version of the mRNA drug as treatment.
Moreover, the MRT platform technology of Translate Bio could be expanded to cover more than just CF – a promising diversification that encouraged big investors like Sanofi to continuously pour money into collaborations with this Massachusetts-based biotech.
As mRNA technology gains more traction, Sanofi might even reevaluate its relationship with Translate Bio and decide that it wants more than just a collaboration.
With the smaller biotech company’s modest market capitalization of only a little over $1.7 billion, an acquisition could be on the table sooner rather than later.
Another potential buyout candidate is Bluebird bio (BLUE).
Unlike its contemporaries in the biotech space, Bluebird shares plunged by nearly 50% in 2020.
Although the company offers a promising upside potential, it can’t seem to generate sufficient enthusiasm to take part in the biotech sector’s rally last year.
In fact, Blue stock continued to hover near its 52-week low despite several gene and cell therapy tickers reaching all-time highs.
While that’s obviously bad news for Bluebird shareholders, I think this makes the company an even more attractive acquisition candidate.
I think it’s important to determine the reasons behind Bluebird’s abysmal 2020 performance.
The stock had a rocky start last year, with the COVID-19 pandemic exacerbating its overall meltdown.
One of Blue’s major roadblock was its failure to secure approval from the FDA for its multiple myeloma treatment, which it has been working on with Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY).
Then, it delayed its submission for approval of its sickle cell disease treatment LentiGlobin. This was initially set for the second half of 2021 but was pushed to late 2022.
The main takeaway from this streak of negative updates is that Blue still doesn’t have its act together when it comes to dealing with regulatory approval processes.
Regardless, the potential of this biotech’s pipeline remains impressive.
Apart from its work with Bristol and LentiGlobin, Bluebird has been working on a late-stage candidate for treatment of a rare metabolic disorder called cerebral adrenoleukodystrophy with Lenti-D.
Prior to its partnership with Bristol, Bluebird was actually partnered with Celgene.
When Celgene was bought by Bristol in 2019, the bigger company continued the collaboration with Blue and expanded the partnership to cover more genetic disorders and extend to oncology treatments.
Due to the setbacks, Bluebird’s market capitalization now hovers somewhere near $3 billion.
Given all these pipeline candidates and its future plans, I suspect it wouldn’t take long before a major player takes notice of this attractive valuation and puts this bird in a cage.
Overall, both Translate Bio and Bluebird are solid companies in the biotechnology space.
While the COVID-19 pandemic slowed down some of their progress, the products in their pipelines could yield substantial value to interested acquisition partners.
Mad Hedge Biotech & Healthcare Letter
November 12, 2020
Fiat Lux
FEATURED TRADE:
(GILEAD IS THE CHOSEN ONE)
(GILD), (REGN), (LLY), (PFE), (AZN), (MRNA), (BNTX), (IMMU)
The fight against the coronavirus reached a major milestone when the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved the first ever treatment for this deadly disease.
Unsurprisingly, the chosen leader for COVID-19 treatment to cross the full approval finish line is the same company that has been supplying the medication since the pandemic started: Gilead Sciences (GILD).
While Gilead’s Remdesivir has been widely used since January to treat severe cases of COVID-19, this FDA approval makes it official—a welcome piece of good news that pushed the stock up by 4% upon announcement.
Now, Gilead can broadly market Remdesivir under its official drug name, Veklury, to doctors and patients.
That means that other than the elderly and severe cases, Veklury can be marketed to COVID-19 patients as young as 12 years old.
Since Veklury gained approval, the drug has generated roughly $873 million in revenues.
Despite its limited market, this COVID-19 treatment actually ranked as Gilead’s second highest-selling drug in the third quarter of 2020—only behind the blockbuster HIV medication Biktarvy, which rose by 8% to contribute $4.55 billion.
As expected, Veklury’s popularity boosted Gilead’s 2020 performance.
Gilead’s total sales for the third quarter alone reached $6.5 billion, with $873 million coming from its brand new just-approved COVID-19 treatment Veklury.
For context, the company’s sales for the third quarter was only projected to grow by 2%. Veklury sales boosted this number to generate an 18% jump in revenue instead.
Clearly, Veklury injects a ray of hope in the declining sales for some of previous Gilead’s money makers like its hepatitis lineup, which saw a $210 million slide in revenue this quarter.
With this approval, Gilead is expected to pocket billions in Veklury sales as the company announced its plan to ramp up production to meet the global demand.
After all, governments are expected to stockpile the drug to be ready for future outbreaks.
In terms of its sustainability, Gilead is estimated to enjoy Veklury’s lucrative profits for a year or two until a COVID-19 vaccine gets fully approved or when herd immunity eventually kicks in.
Apart from Gilead, there are also other companies looking to cash in on this demand.
One of them is Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN), which gained popularity after being used to fast track the COVID-19 recovery of Donald Trump during the campaign period. Another is Eli Lilly, which also applied for an emergency authorization for its antibody cocktail.
Most importantly, Veklury sets a promising precedent for other COVID-19 programs, particularly the vaccines.
If the ongoing trials yield positive results, then the vaccines of Pfizer (PFE), AstraZeneca (AZN), Moderna (MRNA), and BioNTech (BNTX) could quickly receive emergency authorizations.
Meanwhile, Veklury is not the only pandemic-defying achievement of Gilead this year.
Even before the pandemic broke, Gilead’s strategy has consistently centered on acquisitions.
This plan was kickstarted with its $12 billion acquisition of Kite Pharma in 2017.
This investment has been paying off as the company continues growth in Asia, specifically in China.
By 2022, Gilead is projected to generate over $1 billion in sales from its Hepatitis B lineup in this region alone.
While 2020 has not been the best year for mergers and even acquisitions particularly in the biopharmaceutical sector, Gilead seems to not be letting the pandemic ruin its plans.
In March, Gilead completed its $4.9 billion acquisition of Forty-Seven in an effort to own the rights to a blockbuster cancer drug called Magrolimab. This product is anticipated to bring more than $3 billion in annual sales.
Recently, the company announced yet another massive $21 billion deal to acquire Immunomedics (IMMU)—a value that is nearly 30% of Gilead’s $70.4 billion market capitalization.
Gilead’s deal with Immunomedics adds another potential blockbuster drug in its oncology lineup: Trodelvy.
Once approved, Trodelvy is expected to rake in $4 billion annually—a profit that would eventually pay off the $21 billion that Gilead shelled out to acquire Immunomedics.
Looking at profits from its recent acquisitions, Gilead can rake in roughly $2 billion in quarterly revenue just for Trodelvy and Magrolimab alone.
Overall, Gilead’s product lineup has clearly shown significant growth.
Its core portfolio has been consistently strong, and the full FDA approval of Remdesivir offered the company a short-term boost.
In terms of long-term growth, Gilead maintains the capacity to provide significant cash flow for its shareholders.
Mad Hedge Biotech & Healthcare Letter
November 10, 2020
Fiat Lux
FEATURED TRADE:
(PFIZER ADDS EXCLAMATION POINT TO ITS DECLARATION OF INDEPENDENCE)
(PFE). (MRNA), (AZN), (JNJ), (MCK), (GSK), (MYL). (MRK), (BMY)
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