• support@madhedgefundtrader.com
  • Member Login
Mad Hedge Fund Trader
  • Home
  • About
  • Store
  • Luncheons
  • Testimonials
  • Contact Us
  • Click to open the search input field Click to open the search input field Search
  • Menu Menu

Tag Archive for: (BMY)

Mad Hedge Fund Trader

A Blue Chip Stock Selling at a Discount

Biotech Letter

It’s not unheard of in the biotechnology industry to watch the stock prices of small or even mid-cap drug developers rise and fall by 30% following trial results or new drug approval.

However, when the company is Eli Lilly (LLY), which holds a $179 billion market capitalization, then biotech investors need to pay attention.

After all, the only plausible conclusion to draw from this is that there have been some seismic advancements done by the company.

Two potentially breakthrough treatments are the culprit behind the volatility in Eli Lilly stock these days.

The first is Eli Lilly’s COVID-19 program, in which the company is looking into using Bamlanivimab (LY-CoV555) solo or combining it with Etesevimab (LY-CoV016).

What we know so far is that the combo drug can lower the risk of death and hospitalization among high-risk COVID-19 patients by as high as 87%.

In November 2020, the FDA granted Eli Lilly’s Bamlanivimab Emergency Use Authorization.

The solo treatment was also authorized for the same usage in Morocco, Europe, Canada, Rwanda, and some regions of the Middle East, where Eli Lilly is collaborating with the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation for distribution.

Last February 2021, its combo treatment received the same approval.

To date, Eli Lilly has shipped roughly 1 million doses of Bamlanivimab and is committed to supplying an additional 1 million this quarter.

To meet the demand for the Bamlanivimab-Etesevimab combo, Eli Lilly will be working with pharmaceutical titan Amgen (AMGN).

In the company’s 2020 earnings report, Eli Lilly disclosed that Bamlanivimab accounted for $871 million of their sales.

For 2021, the market for COVID-19 treatments is valued at $27.25 billion.

Taking into consideration the competitors coming up with similar medications, such as Gilead Sciences (GILD), Regeneron (REGN), and Sanofi (SNY), the conservative estimate for the sales for Bamlanivimab alone is estimated to reach roughly $1 billion to $2 billion this year.

The second potential breakthrough that’s affecting Eli Lilly’s prices is its Alzheimer’s disease treatment, Donanemab.

Eli Lilly recently released positive data from the Phase 2 trial of Donanemab, with the treatment slowing down cognitive decline by 32% after 76 weeks.

In fact, a notable decline was already observed among the patients as early as 36 weeks.

This is an impressive result, and there’s talk that Eli Lilly’s plan of possible commercialization of Donanemab by 2024 could be fast-tracked to as early as the first half of 2023.

Interestingly, the positive news was met with negative reactions by the investors.

Eli Lilly fell by 9% following the Donanemab update, sending shares tumbling from $208.18 to $189.16.

This reaction effectively erased almost $20 billion in the company’s market value.

The negative reaction to Eli Lilly’s news may be stemming from the pending application of Biogen’s (BIIB) own Alzheimer’s drug, Aducanumab, which is expected to receive word from the FDA by June.

Investors anticipate that Aducanumab’s performance would be indicative of Donanemab’s future.

Looking at the trial results though, I can say that this shouldn’t be the case. Since the beginning, Donanemab has outperformed Aducanumab in practically every aspect.

Either way, what cannot be denied here is the market opportunity.

When the market thought that Aducanumab would get FDA approval in November 2020, the share price of Biogen saw a whopping 44% jump from $246 to $354 overnight.

Meanwhile, Donanemab’s potential sales volumes have been estimated to reach over $10 billion annually. 

Other than Donanemab, Eli Lilly has been developing more contenders to boost its neuroscience division. Right now, this segment generates 6.3% of the company’s total revenues.

One of the promising drugs in the portfolio is migraine treatment Emgality, which recorded a 123% increase in sales last year to hit $362 million.

Thus far, Emgality holds at least 31% of the migraine market and still has room for growth and expansion.

This is a remarkable performance considering that its competitors include Amgen’s Aimovig and Teva’s (TEVA) Ajovy.

Another solid earner is antidepressant treatment Cymbalta, which generated over $768 million in sales last year, up by 5% year-on-year.

Outside its neuroscience efforts, one of Eli Lilly’s strongest growth drivers is its diabetes franchise.

This segment accounts for roughly 47% of its revenues and is led by Trulicity with $5 billion in sales last year, up 23% year-over-year.

Eli Lilly’s diabetes program has grown so much in the past years that it now aggressively competes against Novo Nordisk (NVO), a monopoly-like presence in this space.

In fact, Trulicity has been able to successfully protect its own market share against Novo’s heavily marketed Rybelsus, with data showing that users of Eli Lilly’s diabetes injectable recorded 60% adherence levels compared to Novo’s 43%.

In terms of expansion, Eli Lilly also won a new approval for Trulicity to be used to treat cardiovascular conditions as well.

This additional indication puts Trulicity’s peak sales at roughly $7.43 billion.

In an effort to corner the diabetes market, Eli Lilly also developed Tirzepatide.

Basically, this treatment is a long-term hedge against the pending loss of Trulicity’s patent exclusivity by 2027.

However, Tirzepatide is projected to surpass its predecessor in sales and reach double-digit billions.

Overall, Eli Lilly has positioned itself well in the diabetes market.

While it’s engaged in an aggressive battle for dominance against Novo Nordisk, there’s a lot of room for both.

The diabetes treatment segment is a continuously expanding market, with its value doubling in size from 2015 to 2015. Within this period, this market is projected to grow from $31 billion to $59 billion.

Aside from its diabetes and neuroscience programs, Eli Lilly has also been active in developing its immunology and oncology segments.

This is an ambitious plan, considering that practically all pharmaceutical companies are working on treatments in this space.

After all, the auto-immune market is massive as it’s worth well over $50 billion.

One of the bestsellers in Eli Lilly’s portfolio is plaque psoriasis treatment Taltz, which grew its sales by 31% year-over-year to reach $1.8 billion last year.

Some of the major competitors in this space are Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY) with Zeposia, Sanofi’s Dupixent, and AbbVie’s (ABBV) Skyrizi.

What could be promising news for Eli Lilly is the fact that AbbVie’s ultra-bestseller Humira is going off-patent by 2023.

This means that it could open up the market to allow both Taltz and Olumiant, another top-selling Eli Lilly treatment, to grab part of the lucrative market share.

Ultimately, Eli Lilly is a business that offers a promising commercialized portfolio and a remarkable near-term pipeline, which can reasonably support an annual revenue growth rate of roughly 10% even if we don’t factor in the effects of Donanemab.

Apart from the potential aftermath of the pending Biogen news, the fall in Eli Lilly’s shares could also be attributed to the extremely high expectation of investors.

Alzheimer’s has no approved cure, and there are only a handful of treatments developed from this neurological disease—none of which are even marginally effective.

It’s normal for investors to be wary of positive data results since they’ve been down this road before and are merely attempting to temper their excitement.

Amid the selloff, I believe that Donanemab is far from a lost cause. More importantly, I think the drop in Eli Lilly’s share price presents a rare buying opportunity for investors.

Therefore, I advise buying the dip.

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-03-18 14:00:452021-03-23 18:32:20A Blue Chip Stock Selling at a Discount
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

March 9, 2021

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech & Healthcare Letter
March 9, 2021
Fiat Lux

FEATURED TRADE:

(AN MRNA STOCK TO CONSIDER)
(BNTX), (MRNA), (PFE), (NVS), (SNY), (AZN), (JNJ), (NVAX), (MRK), (BMY), (REGN), (DNA), (CVAC), (FB), (TSLA), (GOOG)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-03-09 11:02:522021-03-09 17:32:46March 9, 2021
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

February 18, 2021

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech & Healthcare Letter
February 18, 2021
Fiat Lux

FEATURED TRADE:

(WARREN BUFFETT’S BIOPHARMACEUTICAL BETS)
(MRK), (ABBV), (BMY), (PFE), (NKTR), (VZ), (CVX), (AAPL), (BRK.B)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-02-18 13:02:182021-02-18 15:55:58February 18, 2021
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Warren Buffett’s Biopharmaceutical Bets

Biotech Letter

Aside from the recent big moves involving Verizon Communications (VZ), Chevron (CVX), and Apple (AAPL), Warren Buffett has also been busy with biopharmaceutical stocks.

Just before 2020 ended, Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) made notable changes in its positions particularly in Merck (MRK), AbbVie (ABBV), Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY), and Pfizer (PFE).

Berkshire boosted its investment in Merck by 28.1% to reach 28.7 million shares.

Meanwhile, its AbbVie holdings were increased by 20% to hit 25.5 million shares.

It also added 11.2% in its investments in Bristol, totaling to 33.3 million shares.

In contrast, the company cut 3.7 million shares from its Pfizer holdings.

In terms of growth potential, these biopharmaceutical companies hold the most promising prospects in the next decade. 

Merck, hailed as a vaccine stalwart, is behind the blockbuster cancer treatment Keytruda.

For context, Keytruda generated $14.4 billion in sales in 2020 alone.

Despite fears over the expiring patent exclusivity of this drug, the company still trades at roughly 11.5 times earnings and is actually projected to achieve 11% long-term EPS growth rate.

Merck also continues to leverage Keytruda in the development of the next generation of treatments in its pipeline.

In fact, the company recently sealed a clinical collaboration with Nektar Therapeutics (NKTR) to assess the effectiveness of Keytruda when combined with Nektar’s own bempegaldesleukin in the treatment of squamous cell carcinoma.

Other than expanding its oncology sector, Merck has been developing its animal health business as well. So far, this particular segment has grown by 7% year over year, reaching $4.7 billion in 2020.

If things work out, then Merck could emerge as a huge competitor against Pfizer’s own animal healthcare spinoff, Zoetis (ZTS), in the future.

To date, Merck has at least 31 candidates in Phase 2 trials and 25 more undergoing Phase 3 studies.

Needless to say, these will be valuable in enriching the company’s lineup especially with the challenges that Keytruda will face in the next years.

As for AbbVie, this company trades at approximately 8.3 times the earnings estimated in the next 12 months. This is well below its five-year average of 10.4 times earnings.

However, the company is projected to show at least 13% EPS growth rate in the long term.

Despite the challenges of 2020, with the company going down 2.6%, the long-term prospects for AbbVie remain positive.

Although AbbVie broke through the dermatology market following its acquisition of Botox-maker Allergan in the past year, it still has to contend with a major problem: arthritis medication Humira.

Humira is not only AbbVie’s top-selling treatment but also the best selling drug in the world today.

In 2020 alone, this anti-inflammatory treatment raked in $19.8 billion in sales. However, AbbVie might soon lose this edge since its exclusive rights to Humira in the US will expire in 2023.

Amidst the anxiety over this issue though, AbbVie continues to defy expectations.

Last year, the company reported a 65.9% growth in its net revenue despite the overall slowdown caused by the pandemic.

As for 2021, AbbVie is anticipating an even better year thanks to its portfolio diversification efforts.

To date, the company’s lineup now spans neuroscience, immunology, eye care, women’s health, and of course, aesthetics.

Meanwhile, Bristol Myers has been pegged to achieve roughly 8% growth rate in the long term. Right now, the stock trade at 7.9 times earnings estimated over the next 12 months.

Like AbbVie and Merck, Bristol has been dealing with patent expiration issues—a problem that pushed its stock down by 4.1% so far this year.

One of the major updates involving Bristol is its massive $74 billion acquisition of Celgene in 2019.

While the deal raised a lot of eyebrows at the time, it brought cancer blockbuster Revlimid into the company’s fold.

Revlimid, which still enjoys protection from a flood of generics for a few more years, has been pumping up sales for Celgene nonstop for over a decade. The drug is expected to generate the same, if not higher, profits for Bristol.

Two more blockbuster drugs in Bristol’s lineup are facing impending patent exclusivity issues, Opdivo, which would expire in 2028, and Eliquis in 2026.

Nonetheless, the positives outweigh the negatives for Bristol. After all, this company invested so much in diversification.

Sales of Opdivo, Revlimid, and Eliquis continued to trend upwards last year.

Opdivo alone managed to generate $7 billion in annual revenue, prompting Bristol to expand the indications for this product.

However, the more promising news lies in the updates that the recently launched products, like multiple sclerosis drug Zeposia and anemia treatment Reblozyl, are gaining traction in the market.

Thanks to the development of its pipeline, the company expects that its new product lineup would account for roughly 27% of its total revenues by 2025.

Overall, Berkshire’s choice of biopharmaceutical companies are offering promising growths in the next several years despite the setbacks they are facing today.

While some investors get alarmed over negative updates, it looks like the Oracle of Omaha is following his own advice: “Whether we're talking about socks or stocks, I like buying quality merchandise, when it is marked down.”

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-02-18 13:00:002021-02-19 14:51:57Warren Buffett’s Biopharmaceutical Bets
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

February 2, 2021

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
February 2, 2021
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(MY NEWLY UPDATED LONG-TERM PORTFOLIO),
(PFE), (BMY), (AMGN), (CELG), (CRSP), (FB), (PYPL), (GOOGL), (AAPL), (AMZN), (SQ), (JPM), (BAC), (MS), (GS), (BABA), (EEM), (FXA), (FCX), (GLD), (SLV), (TLT)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-02-02 10:04:232021-02-02 10:37:11February 2, 2021
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

My Newly Updated Long-Term Portfolio

Diary, Newsletter

I am really happy with the performance of the Mad Hedge Long Term Portfolio since the last update on July 21, 2020.  In fact, not only did we nail the best sectors to go heavily overweight, we also completely dodged the bullets in the worst-performing ones.

For new subscribers, the Mad Hedge Long Term Portfolio is a “buy and forget” portfolio of stocks and ETFs. If trading is not your thing, these are the investments you can make, and then not touch until you start drawing down your retirement funds at age 72.

For some of you, that is not for another 50 years. For others, it was yesterday.

There is only one thing you need to do now and that is to rebalance. Buy or sell what you need to reweight every position to its appropriate 5% or 10% weighting. Rebalancing is one of the only free lunches out there and always adds performance over time. You should follow the rules assiduously.

Despite the seismic changes that have taken place in the global economy over the past nine months, I only need to make minor changes to the portfolio, which I have highlighted below.

To download the entire new portfolio in an excel spreadsheet, please go to www.madhedgefundtrader.com, log in, go “My Account”, then “Global Trading Dispatch”, then click on the “Long Term Portfolio” button.

Changes

I am cutting back my weighting in biotech from 25% to 20% because Celgene (CELG) was taken over by Bristol Myers (BMY) at a 110% profit compared to our original cost. We also earned a spectacular 145% gain on Crisper Therapeutics (CRSP). I’m keeping it because I believe it has more to run.

My 30% weighting in technology also gets pared back to 20% because virtually all of my names have doubled or more. These have been in a sideways correction for the past six months but are still an important part of any barbell portfolio. So, take out Facebook (FB) and PayPal (PYPL) and keep the rest.

I am increasing my weighting in banks from 10% to 20%. Interest rates are finally starting to rise, setting up a perfect storm in favor of bank earnings. Loan default rates are falling. Banks are overcapitalized, thanks to Dodd-Frank. And because of the trillions in government stimulus loans they are disbursing, they are now the most subsidized sector of the economy. So, add in Morgan Stanley (MS) and Goldman Sachs (GS), which will profit enormously from a continuing bull market in stocks.

Along the same vein, I am committing 10% of my portfolio to a short position in the United States Treasury Bond Fund (TLT) as I think bonds are about to go to hell in a handbasket. I rant on this sector on an almost daily basis, so go read Global Trading Dispatch.

I am keeping my 10% international exposure in Chinese Internet giant Alibaba (BABA) and the iShares MSCI Emerging Market ETF (EEM). The Biden administration will most likely dial back the recent vociferous anti-Chinese stance, setting these names on fire.

I am also keeping my foreign currency exposure unchanged, maintaining a double long in the Australian dollar (FXA). The Aussie has been the best performing currency against the US dollar and that should continue.

Australia will be a leveraged beneficiary of the synchronized global economic recovery, both through strong commodity prices and gold which has already started to rise, and the post-pandemic return of Chinese tourism and investment. I argue that the Aussie will eventually make it to parity with the US dollar, or 1:1.

As for precious metals, I’m baling on my 10% holding in gold (GLD), which delivered a nice 20% gain in 2020. From here, it is having trouble keeping up with other alternative assets, like Bitcoin, and there are better fish to fry.

Yes, in this liquidity-driven global bull market, a 20% return is just not enough to keep my interest. Instead, I add a 5% weighting in the higher beta and more volatile iShares Silver Trust (SLV), which has far wider industrial uses in solar panels and electric vehicles.

As for energy, I will keep my weighting at zero. Never confuse “gone down a lot” with “cheap”. I think the bankruptcies have only just started and will stretch on for a decade. Thanks to hyper-accelerating technology, the adoption of electric cars, and less movement overall in the new economy, energy is about to become free. You are looking at the next buggy whip industry.

My ten-year assumption for the US and the global economy remains the same. I’m looking at 3%-5% a year growth for the next decade.

When we come out the other side of this, we will be perfectly poised to launch into my new American Golden Age, or the next Roaring Twenties. With interest rates still at zero, oil cheap, there will be no reason not to. The Dow Average will rise by 400% or more in the coming decade. The America coming out the other side of the pandemic will be far more efficient, productive, and profitable than the old.

You won’t believe what’s coming your way!

I hope you find this useful and I’ll be sending out another update in six months so you can rebalance once again.

Stay healthy.

John Thomas
CEO & Publisher
The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/long-term-portfolio.png 536 864 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-02-02 10:02:032021-02-02 10:37:30My Newly Updated Long-Term Portfolio
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

January 28, 2021

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech & Healthcare Letter
January 28, 2021
Fiat Lux

FEATURED TRADE:

(WATCH OUT FOR THESE BUYOUT STOCKS)
(TBIO), (MRNA), (PFE), (BNTX), (SNY), (BLUE), (BMY)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-01-28 13:02:542021-01-29 10:37:32January 28, 2021
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Watch Out for These Buyout Stocks

Biotech Letter

Many predictions this 2021 probably won’t pan out. However, here’s a pretty safe bet: we will see a number of biotechnology company acquisitions this year.

Although it’s not easy to accurately forecast which biotechnology companies will be involved in these deals, there is a handful that qualifies as prime acquisition targets.

One of the top biotech buyout candidates in my radar this year is Translate Bio (TBIO).

Thanks to the massive success of the COVID-19 programs of Moderna (MRNA), Pfizer (PFE), and BioNTech (BNTX), a spotlight has been cast on the benefits of the messenger RNA (mRNA) technology.

That’s why I wouldn’t be surprised if bigger players in the healthcare industry decide to scoop up smaller players to stake a claim in this quickly growing space.

Among all the small-cap biotechs in play, Translate Bio is easily one of the top prospects.

Before Moderna and BioNTech hogged the spotlight with their mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccines, Translate Bio was actually one of the strong contenders in the race. Unfortunately, it failed to keep up with its peers and is now lagging well behind the leaders.

On the flip side, the attention that mRNA technology has been getting these days seemed to have strengthened the confidence of investors in the technology – an effect that Translate Bio greatly benefited from in the past months.

Despite its lagging performance in the COVID-19 race, Translate Bio has been making significant progress with its work with partner Sanofi (SNY) on their own candidate, MRT5500. If all goes well, then the product should be out by the first quarter of 2021.

Apart from that, the two have been focusing on different vaccine candidates for other viral and bacterial diseases.

Translate Bio’s pipeline also includes treatments targeting another lucrative market using the same MRT platform technology as MRT5500: cystic fibrosis (CF).

The company’s CF treatment has been causing excitement among investors because instead of offering invasive therapy, this option offers patients an inhaled version of the mRNA drug as treatment.

Moreover, the MRT platform technology of Translate Bio could be expanded to cover more than just CF – a promising diversification that encouraged big investors like Sanofi to continuously pour money into collaborations with this Massachusetts-based biotech.

As mRNA technology gains more traction, Sanofi might even reevaluate its relationship with Translate Bio and decide that it wants more than just a collaboration.

With the smaller biotech company’s modest market capitalization of only a little over $1.7 billion, an acquisition could be on the table sooner rather than later.

Another potential buyout candidate is Bluebird bio (BLUE).

Unlike its contemporaries in the biotech space, Bluebird shares plunged by nearly 50% in 2020.

Although the company offers a promising upside potential, it can’t seem to generate sufficient enthusiasm to take part in the biotech sector’s rally last year.

In fact, Blue stock continued to hover near its 52-week low despite several gene and cell therapy tickers reaching all-time highs.

While that’s obviously bad news for Bluebird shareholders, I think this makes the company an even more attractive acquisition candidate.

I think it’s important to determine the reasons behind Bluebird’s abysmal 2020 performance.

The stock had a rocky start last year, with the COVID-19 pandemic exacerbating its overall meltdown.

One of Blue’s major roadblock was its failure to secure approval from the FDA for its multiple myeloma treatment, which it has been working on with Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY).

Then, it delayed its submission for approval of its sickle cell disease treatment LentiGlobin. This was initially set for the second half of 2021 but was pushed to late 2022.

The main takeaway from this streak of negative updates is that Blue still doesn’t have its act together when it comes to dealing with regulatory approval processes.

Regardless, the potential of this biotech’s pipeline remains impressive.

Apart from its work with Bristol and LentiGlobin, Bluebird has been working on a late-stage candidate for treatment of a rare metabolic disorder called cerebral adrenoleukodystrophy with Lenti-D.

Prior to its partnership with Bristol, Bluebird was actually partnered with Celgene.

When Celgene was bought by Bristol in 2019, the bigger company continued the collaboration with Blue and expanded the partnership to cover more genetic disorders and extend to oncology treatments.

Due to the setbacks, Bluebird’s market capitalization now hovers somewhere near $3 billion.

Given all these pipeline candidates and its future plans, I suspect it wouldn’t take long before a major player takes notice of this attractive valuation and puts this bird in a cage.

Overall, both Translate Bio and Bluebird are solid companies in the biotechnology space.

While the COVID-19 pandemic slowed down some of their progress, the products in their pipelines could yield substantial value to interested acquisition partners.

 

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-01-28 13:00:462021-01-30 23:25:21Watch Out for These Buyout Stocks
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

November 12, 2020

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech & Healthcare Letter
November 12, 2020
Fiat Lux

FEATURED TRADE:

(GILEAD IS THE CHOSEN ONE)
(GILD), (REGN), (LLY), (PFE), (AZN), (MRNA), (BNTX), (IMMU)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-11-12 10:02:422020-11-12 11:05:38November 12, 2020
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Gilead is the Chosen One

Biotech Letter

The fight against the coronavirus reached a major milestone when the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved the first ever treatment for this deadly disease.

Unsurprisingly, the chosen leader for COVID-19 treatment to cross the full approval finish line is the same company that has been supplying the medication since the pandemic started: Gilead Sciences (GILD).

While Gilead’s Remdesivir has been widely used since January to treat severe cases of COVID-19, this FDA approval makes it official—a welcome piece of good news that pushed the stock up by 4% upon announcement.

Now, Gilead can broadly market Remdesivir under its official drug name, Veklury, to doctors and patients.

That means that other than the elderly and severe cases, Veklury can be marketed to COVID-19 patients as young as 12 years old.

Since Veklury gained approval, the drug has generated roughly $873 million in revenues.

Despite its limited market, this COVID-19 treatment actually ranked as Gilead’s second highest-selling drug in the third quarter of 2020—only behind the blockbuster HIV medication Biktarvy, which rose by 8% to contribute $4.55 billion.

As expected, Veklury’s popularity boosted Gilead’s 2020 performance.

Gilead’s total sales for the third quarter alone reached $6.5 billion, with $873 million coming from its brand new just-approved COVID-19 treatment Veklury.

For context, the company’s sales for the third quarter was only projected to grow by 2%. Veklury sales boosted this number to generate an 18% jump in revenue instead.

Clearly, Veklury injects a ray of hope in the declining sales for some of previous Gilead’s money makers like its hepatitis lineup, which saw a $210 million slide in revenue this quarter.

With this approval, Gilead is expected to pocket billions in Veklury sales as the company announced its plan to ramp up production to meet the global demand.

After all, governments are expected to stockpile the drug to be ready for future outbreaks.

In terms of its sustainability, Gilead is estimated to enjoy Veklury’s lucrative profits for a year or two until a COVID-19 vaccine gets fully approved or when herd immunity eventually kicks in.

Apart from Gilead, there are also other companies looking to cash in on this demand.

One of them is Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN), which gained popularity after being used to fast track the COVID-19 recovery of Donald Trump during the campaign period. Another is Eli Lilly, which also applied for an emergency authorization for its antibody cocktail.

Most importantly, Veklury sets a promising precedent for other COVID-19 programs, particularly the vaccines.

If the ongoing trials yield positive results, then the vaccines of Pfizer (PFE), AstraZeneca (AZN), Moderna (MRNA), and BioNTech (BNTX) could quickly receive emergency authorizations.

Meanwhile, Veklury is not the only pandemic-defying achievement of Gilead this year.

Even before the pandemic broke, Gilead’s strategy has consistently centered on acquisitions.

This plan was kickstarted with its $12 billion acquisition of Kite Pharma in 2017.

This investment has been paying off as the company continues growth in Asia, specifically in China.

By 2022, Gilead is projected to generate over $1 billion in sales from its Hepatitis B lineup in this region alone.

While 2020 has not been the best year for mergers and even acquisitions particularly in the biopharmaceutical sector, Gilead seems to not be letting the pandemic ruin its plans.

In March, Gilead completed its $4.9 billion acquisition of Forty-Seven in an effort to own the rights to a blockbuster cancer drug called Magrolimab. This product is anticipated to bring more than $3 billion in annual sales. 

Recently, the company announced yet another massive $21 billion deal to acquire Immunomedics (IMMU)—a value that is nearly 30% of Gilead’s $70.4 billion market capitalization.

Gilead’s deal with Immunomedics adds another potential blockbuster drug in its oncology lineup: Trodelvy.

Once approved, Trodelvy is expected to rake in $4 billion annually—a profit that would eventually pay off the $21 billion that Gilead shelled out to acquire Immunomedics.

Looking at profits from its recent acquisitions, Gilead can rake in roughly $2 billion in quarterly revenue just for Trodelvy and Magrolimab alone.

Overall, Gilead’s product lineup has clearly shown significant growth.

Its core portfolio has been consistently strong, and the full FDA approval of Remdesivir offered the company a short-term boost.

In terms of long-term growth, Gilead maintains the capacity to provide significant cash flow for its shareholders.

veklury

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-11-12 10:00:102020-11-15 15:57:44Gilead is the Chosen One
Page 15 of 20«‹1314151617›»

Legal Disclaimer

There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.

Copyright © 2026. Mad Hedge Fund Trader. All Rights Reserved. support@madhedgefundtrader.com
Scroll to top