Mad Hedge Bitcoin Letter
July 28, 2022
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(ANOTHER 130 MILLION)
(BTC), (AMZN), (MSFT), (GOOGL)
Mad Hedge Bitcoin Letter
July 28, 2022
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(ANOTHER 130 MILLION)
(BTC), (AMZN), (MSFT), (GOOGL)
Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
July 26, 2022
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(ANOTHER TECH AND HEALTHCARE CROSSOVER)
(ONEM), (AMZN), (TDOC), (AMWL), (GOOGL), (AAPL), (MSFT), (CVS), (WBA), (UNH)
The battle for telemedicine dominance might have just ended before it even began.
Amazon (AMZN) just announced its all-cash plan to acquire One Medical (ONEM) for $3.9 billion, paying $18 per share.
To date, this will be Amazon’s biggest step toward the healthcare world.
With the entry of Amazon into this telehealth segment, companies like Teladoc (TDOC) and Amwell (AMWL) would need to work overtime to match the resources of the e-commerce giant.
However, Amazon’s move isn’t exactly novel considering that other FAANG companies like Google (GOOGL), Apple (AAPL), and Microsoft (MSFT) have already acquired healthcare companies.
What this move simply indicates is that Amazon has finally turned serious in its bid for a bigger piece of the healthcare market.
This isn’t even the first time Amazon decided to go beyond its retail business. It has a pretty diverse portfolio including Amazon Web Services, a cloud infrastructure service, and even Whole Foods.
However, the decision to aggressively pursue the $800 billion healthcare industry might just be what Amazon needs to really move the needle.
In 2018, Amazon shelled out roughly $1 billion to buy an online pharmacy called PillPack which led to the launch of virtual Amazon Care clinics.
On that same year, the e-commerce company also pursued a joint venture, dubbed Haven, with Berkshire Hathaway and JPMorgan Chase. Unfortunately, that plan didn’t pan out and was eventually shut down.
Buying One Medical at a premium of 77%, Amazon beat other interested bidders including CVS (CVS), Walgreens (WBA), and UnitedHealth (UNH).
It’s still unclear what Amazon plans with One Medical. The e-commerce giant might add it to its Amazon Care brand or let it operate independently.
One Medical is a membership-based platform, which is backed by the Carlyle Group (CG) and managed under 1Life Healthcare.
Like most telehealth companies, it offers virtual healthcare services like virtual visits. What makes it different is that it also provides in-person checkups in accredited medical offices within the US.
One Medical’s app enables clients to schedule appointments, talk with their healthcare provider, and ask for prescriptions.
A key selling point is that the company guarantees that all the appointments start on time. Another notable feature is that users can gift a yearlong subscription to someone for $199.
Like Teladoc and Amwell, the company isn’t profitable yet. This case isn’t shocking for a relatively new field.
However, One Medical’s strategy has led to impressive revenue and membership growth.
The company’s revenue has consistently increased since its 2020 IPO. In 2021, its membership count climbed by 34% to reach 736,000.
In the first quarter of 2022, One Medical’s membership grew again by 28% and revenue jumped 109% to record over $254 million. So far, more than 8,000 companies provide One Medical services to their staff.
For 2022, One Medical projects its revenue to be between $831 million and $853 million.
Admittedly, these figures seem inconsequential when you compare them to the other sectors of Amazon’s business. For example, Amazon Web Services raked in $18.4 billion in sales in the first quarter of 2022.
Actually, One Medical’s revenue and membership growth might even look small and unimpressive compared to Teladoc, which recorded $565 million in the first quarter and has more than 54 million members in the US alone.
Undoubtedly, the healthcare market offers a mouthwatering opportunity for the likes of Amazon. It’s a lucrative industry, one of the handful that can truly make a difference in an already thriving business. Moreover, it has been highly profitable over the years.
Nonetheless, the acquisition of One Medical isn’t a foolproof plan for Amazon’s dominance in healthcare. So far, the e-commerce giant’s track record has been mixed. That doesn’t mean that the deal is a bad move. In fact, it indicates Amazon’s seriousness in making a play for the healthcare market.
Either way, the clear winner would be One Medical. Since the announcement, the stock has risen 70%.
Moreover, even if Amazon falls victim to politicization or anti-trust issues involving the deal, One Medical still has a number of suitors lined up.
Basically, it’s a win-win for this emerging telehealth company.
Mad Hedge Technology Letter
July 18, 2022
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(GO STRAIGHT TO THE TOP WITH THE CLOUD)
(AMZN), (ZS), (CRM), (GOOGL)
Dealing with the Cloud works, and for every relevant tech company, this division serves as the pipeline to the CEO position.
If this isn’t the case for a tech company, then there’s something egregiously wrong with them!
Take Andy Jassy, the mastermind behind Amazon’s (AMZN) lucrative cloud computing division and the man who succeeded company founder Jeff Bezos.
He was rewarded this important position based on his performance in the cloud and faced the daunting proposition of following Bezos as CEO.
Bezos incorporated Amazon almost 30 years ago.
Jassy developed a highly profitable and market-leading business, Amazon Web Services, that runs data centers serving a wide range of corporate computing needs.
Cloud 101
If you've been living under a rock the past few years, the cloud phenomenon hasn't passed you by and you still have time to cash in.
You want to hitch your wagon to cloud-based investments in any way, shape, or form.
Amazon leads the cloud industry it created.
It still maintains more than 30% of the cloud market. Microsoft would need to gain a lot of ground to even come close to this jewel of a business.
Amazon relies on AWS to underpin the rest of its businesses and that is why AWS contributes most of Amazon's total operating income.
Total revenue for just the AWS division would operate as a healthy stand-alone tech company if need be.
The future is about the cloud.
These days, the average investor probably hears about the cloud a dozen times a day.
If you work in Silicon Valley, you can quadruple that figure.
So, before we get deep into the weeds with this letter on cloud services, cloud fundamentals, cloud plays, and cloud Trade Alerts, let's get into the basics of what the cloud actually is.
Think of this as a cloud primer.
It's important to understand the cloud, both its strengths and limitations.
Giant companies that have it figured out, such as Salesforce (CRM) and Zscaler (ZS), are some of the fastest-growing companies in the world.
Understand the cloud and you will readily identify its bottlenecks and bulges that can lead to extreme investment opportunities. And that is where I come in.
Cloud storage refers to the online space where you can store data. It resides across multiple remote servers housed inside massive data centers all over the country, some as large as football fields, often in rural areas where land, labor, and electricity are cheap.
They are built using virtualization technology, which means that storage space spans many different servers and multiple locations. If this sounds crazy, remember that the original Department of Defense packet-switching design was intended to make the system atomic bomb-proof.
As a user, you can access any single server at any one time anywhere in the world. These servers are owned, maintained, and operated by giant third-party companies such as Amazon, Microsoft, and Alphabet (GOOGL), which may or may not charge a fee for using them.
The most important features of cloud storage are:
1) It is a service provided by an external provider.
2) All data is stored outside your computer residing inside an in-house network.
3) A simple Internet connection will allow you to access your data at any time from anywhere.
4) Because of all these features, sharing data with others is vastly easier, and you can even work with multiple people online at the same time, making it the perfect, collaborative vehicle for our globalized world.
Once you start using the cloud to store a company's data, the benefits are many.
No Maintenance
Many companies, regardless of their size, prefer to store data inside in-house servers and data centers.
However, these require constant 24-hour-a-day maintenance, so the company has to employ a large in-house IT staff to manage them - a costly proposition.
Thanks to cloud storage, businesses can save costs on maintenance since their servers are now the headache of third-party providers.
Instead, they can focus resources on the core aspects of their business where they can add the most value, without worrying about managing IT staff of prima donnas.
Greater Flexibility
Today's employees want to have a better work/life balance and this goal can be best achieved by letting them work remotely which effectively happened because of the public health situation. Increasingly, workers are bending their jobs to fit their lifestyles, and that is certainly the case here at Mad Hedge Fund Trader.
How else can I send off a Trade Alert while hanging from the face of a Swiss Alp?
Cloud storage services, such as Google Drive, offer exactly this kind of flexibility for employees.
With data stored online, it's easy for employees to log into a cloud portal, work on the data they need to, and then log off when they're done. This way a single project can be worked on by a global team, the work handed off from time zone to time zone until it's done.
It also makes them work more efficiently, saving money for penny-pinching entrepreneurs.
Better Collaboration and Communication
In today's business environment, it's common practice for employees to collaborate and communicate with co-workers located around the world.
For example, they may have to work on the same client proposal together or provide feedback on training documents. Cloud-based tools from DocuSign, Dropbox, and Google Drive make collaboration and document management a piece of cake.
These products, which all offer free entry-level versions, allow users to access the latest versions of any document so they can stay on top of real-time changes which can help businesses to better manage workflow, regardless of geographical location.
Data Protection
Another important reason to move to the cloud is for better protection of your data, especially in the event of a natural disaster. Hurricane Sandy wreaked havoc on local data centers in New York City, forcing many websites to shut down their operations for days.
And we haven’t talked about the ransomware attacks by Eastern Europeans on energy company Colonial Pipeline and meat producer JBS Foods.
The cloud simply routes traffic around problem areas as if, yes, they have just been destroyed by a nuclear attack.
It's best to move data to the cloud, to avoid such disruptions because there your data will be stored in multiple locations.
This redundancy makes it so that even if one area is affected, your operations don't have to capitulate, and data remains accessible no matter what happens. It's a system called deduplication.
Lower Overhead
The cloud can save businesses a lot of money.
By outsourcing data storage to cloud providers, businesses save on capital and maintenance costs, money that in turn can be used to expand the business. Setting up an in-house data center requires tens of thousands of dollars in investment, and that's not to mention the maintenance costs it carries.
Plus, considering the security, reduced lag, up-time and controlled environments that providers such as Amazon's AWS have, creating an in-house data center seems about as contemporary as a buggy whip, a corset, or a Model T.
The cloud is where you want to be.
Mad Hedge Technology Letter
July 13, 2022
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(HOT INFLATION NUMBER BODES POORLY FOR TECH STOCKS)
(LYFT), (UBER), (AMZN), (SHOP), (GOOGL), (SNAP), (META), (TWTR), (MELI), (EXPE), (TRIP)
Fed swaps now fully price in 150 basis points of hikes over the next two meetings after awful inflation numbers came in showing inflation heading in the wrong direction.
The 9.1% inflation print was an acceleration of the 8.6% which was what we got last time.
I don’t want to beat a dead horse, but inflation accelerating and beating the expectations of 8.8%, is paramount to the trajectory of tech shares.
The awful number also underscores the magnitude of policy mistakes that the U.S. Fed Central Bank has overseen.
This is the only thing that matters because macro liquidity drives the trajectory of equities in the short term.
These clowns aren’t serious about tackling inflation, as I said a few times already and this proves it!
Itty bitty rate rises won’t stamp out 9.1% inflation and in fact, encourages it.
The Fed would need to raise the Fed Funds rate by 7.35% to 9.1% immediately from the current 1.75% for the real inflation rate to be non-inflationary.
According to the official Fed website, the Fed targets 2% inflation because they call this level “healthy.”
By their own measure, to achieve this 2% inflation, they would still need to raise rates by 5.35% immediately, but they absolutely won’t because Powell simply has no interest in doing his job, period.
These core expenses skyrocketing is why I keep and kept mentioning that Americans have less money to splurge on tech gadgets and software and again, this inflation report validates my thesis.
Think about pitiful tech stocks that didn’t work in bull markets like ride chauffeurs Lyft (LYFT) and Uber (UBER), I fully expect these companies to perform terribly over the next 6 months amid a rising rate backdrop.
Not only are they growth tech, but their business is directly tied to energy prices.
They are the poster boys for the pain tech companies will feel from hyperinflation.
The outlook is quite poor for technology in the short term, and we are still waiting to form a bottom. It will come back but we need a capitulation.
The accelerated rate of inflation means that we push back the big recovery in tech stocks.
Ecommerce stocks will suffer like Amazon (AMZN), Shopify (SHOP), and MercadoLibre (MELI) because of the decline in discretional spending for the consumer.
Digital ad giants like Google (GOOGL), Snap (SNAP), Meta (META), and Twitter (TWTR) will need to reckon with smaller ad budgets from 3rd party ad purchasers as companies cut back on marketing spend.
Don’t need to increase marketing spend when people have no money to spend on products.
Travel tech stocks like Expedia (EXPE) and Tripadvisor (TRIP) can expect summer to mark peak travel as Americans get more concerned about food and oil budgets after the summer of travel revenge from the arbitrary lockdowns.
It also means there will be a meaningful next leg down for tech stocks as many CFOs are now furiously crunching the new revenue and margin downgrades to reflect this heightened risk.
The new re-rating isn’t reflected yet in tech shares.
It’s already been a few months on the trot where many analysts say this is the top, they have been inaccurate every time.
Even if it is the top, inflation will stay higher for longer and stagflation is the consensus for 2023.
The clowns at the Fed not doing their job means that economic cycles will be shorter and a great deal more volatile because the smoothing effect of moderated inflation is now stripped out of calculations. This effectively means a contracted boom-bust trajectory for tech stocks which is unequivocally what we are seeing in market behavior.
Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
July 5, 2022
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(AN AAA-RATED STOCK POISED TO DELIVER MARKET-BEATING RETURNS)
(JNJ), (AAPL), (GOOGL), (AMZN), (MSFT), (TSLA), (META), (BRK.A)
More than six months after what appeared to be a never-ending assault on the biotechnology and healthcare industries, the sector seems to be slowly reviving.
While it is still too early to declare the pullback over, there are a few companies that provide a ray of hope for investors.
In the US, only four stocks have recorded a market capitalization of $1 trillion or higher: Apple (APPL), Alphabet (GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN), and Microsoft (MSFT). This year's market crash saw Tesla (TSLA) and Meta Platforms (META) departure from this elite group.
The market-wide selloff also made it more difficult for stocks to reach the $1 trillion mark. However, this does not necessarily preclude them from achieving this goal in the future.
Companies are rapidly expanding and equipped with the right tools and strategies to capitalize on growth opportunities, making them prime candidates to make the $1 trillion cut in a couple of years.
One of them is Johnson & Johnson (JNJ).
Almost everyone is familiar with JNJ's century-old brands, such as Band-Aids and Listerine. What many people probably do not realize is that the company's med-tech and pharmaceutical segments account for the vast majority of its total revenue.
In 2021, its pharmaceuticals segment alone comprised 55% of JNJ sales, while its medical devices unit contributed 29% to the company’s top line.
So far, the most promising drug in JNJ’s pharmaceutical segment is Tremfya. First-quarter sales for this psoriasis treatment jumped to a whopping 41% year over year to record an annualized $2.4 billion.
Meanwhile, JNJ's med-tech segment is poised for massive growth as a result of the strong demand for its electrophysiology products. These devices, used to keep hearts beating normally, have been identified as lucrative revenue streams and growth drivers in the long run.
The company has been working on spinning off its consumer segment into a separate publicly traded entity in the following months. This means that investors with JNJ stock will eventually end up owning shares of two different companies by 2023.
The decision to spin off its consumer health segment is part of the company's effort to shed a cyclical segment and become a health pure play focused on pharmaceuticals and medical devices.
Hence, now is an excellent time to buy JNJ shares.
While JNJ isn’t known as a high-growth stock, the company’s strategies have the potential to spur exponential growth and send shares soaring.
The next decade will be crucial for the company's success as it transforms. If the company executes its plans successfully, its current market capitalization of $467 billion could slowly but steadily increase to approximately $1 trillion.
J&J will be able to invest and concentrate its resources on segments with high sales and margins, which should increase the company's income and cash flows at a faster rate than at present.
Furthermore, JNJ's plan is expected to increase shareholder returns through higher dividends and share repurchases because of its growing cash flow. With these factors combined, JNJ's stock price will undoubtedly rise, as will its market cap.
On top of these, JNJ offers a 2.6% dividend yield. Admittedly, this isn’t remarkably high. However, investors can rely on its steady rise. Moreover, JNJ is a Dividend King. In fact, it recently raised its payout for the 60th year in a row.
If these aren’t enough to cement the company’s reputation as a solid investment, consider the fact that JNJ is one of the largest holdings in Warren Buffett’s (BRK.A) portfolio.
It’s also one of the only two publicly traded companies with the coveted AAA credit rating from S&P. For context, the US government only has an AA rating. Needless to say, this makes JNJ one of the safest—if not the safest—income stock to date.
Overall, JNJ has been diligent in getting all of its ducks in a row and is poised to provide market-beating returns to patient investors.
Global Market Comments
June 7, 2022
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(THE SECOND AMERICAN INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION),
(INDU), (SPY), (QQQ), (GLD), (DBA),
(TSLA), (GOOGL), (XLK), (IBB), (XLE)
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