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Tag Archive for: (MRK)

Mad Hedge Fund Trader

An Invincible Stock That Can Weather Any Storm

Biotech Letter

Given the volatility of today’s market, anxious investors look into dividend stocks for safety and security. After all, dividends are excellent sources of passive income—something that would definitely be handy when facing a 40-year-high inflation and seemingly never-ending market losses.

However, not all companies that pay out dividends are created equal. With the current economic climate and financial turmoil, choosing businesses that would less likely lower or suspend their payouts becomes even more crucial.

One of the companies that meet these qualities in the biotechnology and healthcare sector is Merck (MRK).

Merck is one of the biggest biopharmaceutical companies across the globe, with a remarkable portfolio of drugs and treatments.

Merck’s resiliency at a period when so many companies have been struggling to keep afloat has indubitably attracted investors’ attention. One of its recent accomplishments is the promising results of its personalized cancer vaccine project with Moderna (MRNA). Needless to say, this will be a massive game-changer if the two companies manage to successfully launch the product.

However, none is more widely known among its products than Keytruda, with the drugmaker continuously raking more indications for its crown jewel with no signs of stopping anytime soon.

Keytruda contributes a considerable share of the company’s total revenue. This cancer therapy is also the fastest-growing treatment when it comes to sales. In the third quarter alone, Keytruda generated $5.4 billion, growing by an impressive 20% year over year. This accounts for more than 33% of Merck’s top line, which showed off a 14% jump year over year to reach $15 billion in the third quarter.

On top of expanding the application of Keytruda to cover new indications, the company has been developing a version of the treatment that can be given subcutaneously rather than the current intravenous delivery method.

Offering Keytruda as a subcutaneous injection or a shot administered into the fatty tissues just beneath the skin would notably reduce the future damage that biosimilars could inflict on the top-selling treatment in 2028. This is because patents protecting this particular formulation of Keytruda could be extended until the late 2040s.

Apart from that, Keytruda’s subcutaneous version would be able to provide several advantages over the current intravenous delivery method. For one, the time needed to administer the drug would be substantially reduced from the current 30 minutes since patients can easily self-inject in their own homes. This will also decrease their dependency on hospitals.

This version would also ease the discomfort of patients and significantly lower their expenses, which will consequently motivate more insurance companies to opt to prescribe this branded product instead of the biosimilar alternatives.

Other critical products in Merck’s portfolio include its HPV vaccines Gardasil and Gardasil 9. The two managed to deliver combined sales of $2.3 billion in the third quarter, which recorded a 15% jump from their performance in the same period in 2021. Meanwhile, cancer treatment Lynparza racked up $284 million, which was up by 16% year over year.

Overall, Merck has a solid lineup of products and treatments and an extremely promising pipeline of candidates, which would allow the company to develop additional blockbuster drugs to beef up its portfolio. Moreover, its stable business will undoubtedly help to sustain its dividend.

To date, Merck shares offer a 2.68% yield. This surpasses the average of S&P 500, which is 1.82%. More impressively, the company has boosted its dividend payouts by roughly 20% in the last three years despite the pandemic and severe financial and economic turbulence. Looking at its history and trajectory, Merck will most likely continue to reward its investors with dividend boosts in 2023 and beyond, regardless of what the market throws at it next.

 

merck porfolio

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-12-22 18:00:522023-01-02 21:21:57An Invincible Stock That Can Weather Any Storm
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

December 15, 2022

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
December 15, 2022
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(HASTE MAKES WASTE)
(MRNA), (MRK)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-12-15 15:02:202022-12-15 16:01:57December 15, 2022
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Haste Makes Waste

Biotech Letter

Many quality stocks are experiencing annual declines. The bear market has heavily and negatively affected investor sentiment and, of course, the economic climate, which hurt earnings. Nonetheless, some stocks still managed to show signs of a rebound this year.

In the biotechnology and healthcare market, Moderna (MRNA) is putting up a pretty impressive fight to bounce back. In fact, it has posted a double-digit increase over the last three months. As this biotech gains more traction, it’s reasonable to wonder if it’s time to get in on it before 2023.

The latest update that pushed the stock higher was about the company’s cancer vaccine, which it has been working on with Merck (MRK).

Based on Phase 2 trial results, adding the experimental messenger RNA-based cancer vaccine of Moderna, called mRNA-4157, to the standard Keytruda treatment of Merck and administering the combination to high-risk melanoma patients lowered the risk of death or the recurrence of cancer by 44%.

Suppose this momentum is sustained until Phase 3 in the same category of patients, as well as in similar trials expected in other indications. In that case, this could signify the beginning of a monumental shift in cancer therapies. That is, it would create a market for mRNA-based personalized cancer vaccines that can be administered in combination with readily available treatments like Keytruda.

The results, which showed a decrease in the risk of relapse or death by almost half, also demonstrate a notable vindication for Moderna and represent a significant step towards realizing its ambitions to expand and diversify its profile as a COVID-19 vaccine maker.

This collaboration between Moderna and Merck on personalized cancer vaccines dates back to 2016, with the latter exercising its option to co-develop mRNA-4157 in October 2022.

Basically, mRNA-4157 is a tailored approach based on every patient’s specific tumor. According to Moderna, the procedure typically only takes a few weeks to complete. The idea behind adding Keytruda is rooted in boosting the immune response of the patient’s T-cells, while mRNA-4157 guides the T-cells to the specific tumor.

Apart from the proteins included in the personalized cancer vaccine, mRNA-4157 is actually identical to the COVID-19 vaccine distributed by Moderna across the globe. Both have the same mRNA chemistry, same lipid, same intramuscular route, and same manufacturing process.

If this treatment shows conclusive evidence that it can work on melanoma patients, then Moderna and Merck can expand their application to other indications. After all, Keytruda has several approvals under its belt, making it convenient for both companies to keep testing the combination.

To date, Moderna has fallen by roughly 30%. However, it has managed to bounce back by over 20% in the past three months. While the broader market downturn definitely hurt Moderna shares, another primary reason for its decline is the concern over its post-pandemic performance.

Realistically speaking, vaccine sales will likely not surpass the approximately $18 billion that Moderna recorded in 2021 and expects this year. Still, revenue will probably remain within the blockbuster territory.

Looking at the demand, the coronavirus booster market is projected to follow in the footsteps of the flu vaccine sector.

For context, the flu market worldwide reaches 500 million to 600 million doses yearly. Depending on the pricing, this demand could rake in somewhere between $12 billion to $24 billion.

On top of these, Moderna has been working on two additional candidates in Phase 3 trials: vaccines for the flu and respiratory syncytial virus. Both are anticipated to hit commercialization by 2024 and 2025.

Overall, Moderna could become an overwhelming success with its mRNA candidates in the years to come. However, the most challenging question is still estimating the company’s earnings for the next five years or more.

There remain notable uncertainties surrounding its pipeline. While I could always take a stab at estimating its profits, that’s just guesswork at this point. So despite Moderna’s impressive results over its personalized cancer vaccine program, I don’t think it’s a safe bet—for now.

 

mrna

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-12-15 15:00:182023-01-02 16:29:12Haste Makes Waste
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

November 22, 2022

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
November 22, 2022
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(THE STOCK THAT KEEPS ON GIVING)
(MRK), (JNJ), (PFE), (IMG), (ABBV), (AZN)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-11-22 15:02:522022-11-23 13:07:53November 22, 2022
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

The Stock That Keeps on Giving

Biotech Letter

Although the broader market has been experiencing the worst year in a very long time, some businesses still manage to deliver excellent results.

One of them is Merck (MRK).

This biotechnology and healthcare giant has been defying gravity this 2022. While the Health Care Select Sector SPDR (XLV) has slid by quite a substantial margin this year, with the likes of Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and Pfizer (PFE) succumbing to the pressure, Merck bucked the trend. Its shares have been up by 31% since early January.

Amid the economic and financial crises, Merck remains a promising stock with a number of factors going its way. More importantly, there is a high probability that it can sustain its momentum regardless of what happens to the broader market or the economy.

Merck’s determination to keep this momentum has once again become apparent in its recent announcement.

Earlier this week, the biotech giant disclosed that it would acquire a biopharmaceutical company called Imago BioSciences (IMG) for $1.35 billion.

This would translate to $36 in cash for every share of Imago, which is about twice its recent closing price of $17.40. The deal is anticipated to be completed by March 2023.

Like its large competitors, Merck also has a portfolio of treatments that continue to aid in the growth of its top and bottom lines.

In the third quarter of this year, the biotech’s revenue climbed by 14% year-over-year to reach roughly $15 billion. Meanwhile, its adjusted net income was $4.7 billion, showing a 4% increase compared to the same period in 2021.

Among its products, Merck has been most closely associated with the cancer drug Keytruda. So far, this treatment is on track to rake in $20 billion in net sales this year alone.

In fact, it’s expected to surpass AbbVie’s (ABBV) Humira as the top-selling drug by 2026.

With Keytruda’s patent exclusivity lasting until 2028, Merck has more than sufficient time to prepare for it. Moreover, that means the company can still rely on Keytruda as a strong growth driver for at least five more years.

However, astute investors would point out Merck’s reliance on Keytruda and the risks that come with this arrangement. With the mega-blockbuster’s $5.4 billion net sales, which comprised 36.3% of Merck’s $15 billion total sales in the third quarter, this is a legitimate concern.

It should be noted that Keytruda isn’t the only promising moneymaking treatment in Merck’s portfolio.

One of its promising treatments is its collaboration with AstraZeneca (AZN), which resulted in another cancer medicine called Lynparza. Another is Merck’s HPV vaccines, which continue to rise at a good pace. Finally, the company’s vaccine portfolio has been expanding, with its pneumococcal vaccine recently gaining approval.

Most of its therapies and even its vaccine franchises are on pace to surpass at least $1 billion in net sales this 2022. Needless to say, Merck has been successful in its quest to become more than just a cancer therapy leader.

On top of these, another good reason to take Merck into consideration is its dividend yield.

Merck’s current dividend yield is at 2.8%, which outpaces the 1.6% average yield of the S&P 500. Aside from its top-selling products and robust pipeline that easily support this payout, the company’s dividend is well-covered as well.

Overall, Merck is one of the handful of companies across all industries that has been breaking the norm of poor stock performance in this highly challenging year.

The company can offer a strong shield for wary investors as we deal with the onset of yet another recession. Not only is this biotechnology and healthcare company part of a naturally defensive sector, but its outlook also remains positive amid the issues plaguing the world.

 

merck keytruda

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-11-22 15:00:572022-12-02 01:54:07The Stock That Keeps on Giving
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

November 1, 2022

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
November 1, 2022
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(BARGAIN DEAL FOR A QUALITY STOCK)
(ABBV), (ABT), (RGNX), (JNJ), (MRK), (GILD), (AMGN), (LLY), (BMY), (PFE)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-11-01 11:02:192022-11-01 11:14:26November 1, 2022
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Bargain Deal For A Quality Stock

Biotech Letter

Uncertainty. That’s the prevalent sentiment in the investment community these days.

Investors have been hesitant to buy stocks because they believe the bear market isn’t over yet.

Moreover, investors are anxious over the possibility that the stocks will keep falling as issues like higher inflation continue to hound the market.

However, it’s critical to remember that although today’s situation is challenging, it’s only temporary. This means that businesses with solid track records and promising prospects still make excellent buys.

One of the companies outperforming the market this year but which has fallen out of investors’ favor recently, is AbbVie (ABBV).

AbbVie stock has been declining in value lately following an underwhelming third-quarter earnings report. On top of that, the looming patent expiration of its top-selling drug Humira remains a significant concern among investors.

While the Humira situation is clearly not good news for the company, the reality is that AbbVie has impressively preserved the medication’s exclusivity for almost a decade longer than initially expected. Plus, the company has been boosting Humira pricing every year to cope with the declining revenues in the EU, where it already lost patent protection in 2018.

Hence, it’s acceptable for Humira’s chapter in AbbVie’s story to end. After all, the drug has given the company so much. It has been primarily responsible for the more than 325% climb in the company’s share price since 2012 when AbbVie was spun out of Abbott Laboratories (ABT).

Nonetheless, Humira’s impending patent loss doesn’t mean that AbbVie will simply abandon its roots.

The company has since developed potential successors of Humira, namely, Skyrizi and Rinvoq.

So far, the two auto-immune drugs have delivered promising results and are on track to keep the company in tip-top shape in its post-Humira era.

These newer immunology drugs are showing impressive growth potential, with Rinvoq recording a 56% increase in revenue in the third quarter of 2022 and Skyrizi revenue soaring by 85%.

Both are also on track to beat Humira’s peak sales, with joint peak sales from Skyrizi and Rinvoq initially estimated to reach roughly $15 billion.

However, recent revenue reports show that the two could surpass the estimate and completely eclipse Humira’s more than $20 billion annual return.

Obviously, AbbVie would require more than its immunology segment if it plans to sustain a good top and bottom-line growth trajectory.

Other than the more than 10 neuroscience, hematology, immunology, and oncology candidates in its pipeline, which are projected to be ready for market launches in the three to five years, AbbVie has been diving into the aesthetics and eye care markets.

Its eye care program, specifically RGX-314, which is currently being developed in partnership with Regenxbio (RGNX), is an interesting wildcard. For context, the eye care segments for wet and dry advanced macular degeneration are roughly worth over $10 billion to $20 billion annually.

With its Humira chapter closing, AbbVie could be ushering in a new era where products from its Allergan acquisition take the lead.

For example, its Botox franchise consistently delivers impressive results. Even its Botox for migraine line has been recording double-digit revenue growth in the third quarter, indicating gains in AbbVie’s neuroscience segment.

As for the aesthetic indications of Botox, this particular portfolio could be a key driver in the company’s future growth.

Aside from Botox, AbbVie also gained access to the widely used dermal filler Juvederm. With the facial aesthetics industry pegged to experience a compound annual growth rate yearly at 14%, the market is estimated to hit $15.2 billion by 2028.

This trend of AbbVie dominating the market is likely to continue as the company is confident that competitors would be unable to develop biosimilars of Botox. That means its Botox line could keep adding to its top-line growth for an extended period.

Overall, AbbVie is a solid bet among the “Big 8” in the pharmaceutical world, which includes Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Merck (MRK), Gilead Sciences (GILD), Amgen (AMGN), Eli Lilly (LLY), Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY), and Pfizer (PFE).

Moreover, this is an excellent time to hunt for deals as several quality stocks continue to decline, affected negatively partly by the momentum of the broader market. Among stocks to consider, AbbVie should be at the top of your list.

 

abbvie humira

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-11-01 11:00:162022-11-02 04:35:58Bargain Deal For A Quality Stock
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

October 20, 2022

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
October 20, 2022
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(A CURE FOR A SICKENING MARKET)
(MRK), (OGN)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-10-20 16:02:092022-10-20 17:29:49October 20, 2022
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

A Cure for a Sickening Market

Biotech Letter

In this sickening market, it makes sense that the biotechnology and healthcare industry is proving to be a great hedge.

This sector has managed to remain one of the handful to post gains in 2022 amidst the seemingly never-ending barrage of negative news caused by the bear market, economic and political turmoil, and even health crises.

The criteria bring me to Merck (MRK), which has performed excellently this year.

Merck is a globally dominant biopharmaceutical company, standing the test of time, and having been in operation for more than 130 years.

It has consistently delivered stable results, showing off a 28% growth in sales in the second quarter of 2022. Among the names in its roster, the most profitable drug is cancer treatment Keytruda, which recorded a 30% year-over-year growth in sales during the same period.

Despite the already remarkable performance of Keytruda, this oncology medication has proven to be capable of targeting more than just lung cancer as it was recently given the green light for 6 additional indications.

In line with ensuring the company is not reliant on a single blockbuster drug, Merck has been aggressive in seeking potential high-selling candidates to add to its portfolio.

Recently, its $11.5 billion bet on Sotatercept, a heart medication, seems to have paid off as the company disclosed positive results from a Phase 3 trial focused on treating a condition called pulmonary arterial hypertension.

It was in 2021 when Merck bought Sotatercept as part of its agreement to acquire Accelerant Pharma. The goal was to find a drug to fill the anticipated revenue gap from the impending patent loss of Keytruda by 2030.

The strategy was high risk at that time because data on Sotatercept were limited on Phase 2 trial results. Nevertheless, Merck paid a significant sum to the company. That was reported as one of the biggest acquisitions of 2021.

Given the current data, the conservative estimate for Sotatercept sales is at $700 million annually. However, the established nature of the target market has some analysts pushing the forecast to potentially reach $4 billion by 2031.

However, unlike other biopharmaceutical companies that heavily depend on one or two blockbuster treatments, Merck has a strong lineup of high-margin products in the market.

Moreover, its pipeline candidates support its solid profitability and investment capital returns for several years. This becomes even more apparent with the spinoff of Organon (OGN) in 2021, where Merck retained a portfolio of drugs with strong patent protection.

It holds a moat-worthy portfolio of specialty treatments in various sectors, including oncology, immunology, cardiometabolic disease, rare diseases, and infections. It also has an extensive vaccine segment that targets HPV, pediatric conditions, shingles, and Hepatitis B.

In the past trailing 12 months, the company generated roughly $57 billion in revenue, with half coming from US sales and the rest internationally.

More importantly, Merck sports a notable 3.1% dividend yield that’s easily supported by a low 35% payout ratio. It reports a 9% five-year CAGR and has an impressive 11-year growth streak.

Throughout the years, Merck’s stock, underlying strategies, and growth model have demonstrated their resilience against macroeconomic headwinds, with the company’s core businesses firing on all cylinders.

It has one of the most solid balance sheets in the industry, which illustrates its financial flexibility to comfortably invest in promising R&D prospects and sustain its dividend at a solid pace.

Overall, Merck is an excellent choice for investors looking to deploy some capital but want to minimize exposure to volatility on top of the possibility of earning some extra dividend income.

 

merck

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-10-20 16:00:092022-11-02 03:45:43A Cure for a Sickening Market
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

October 19, 2022

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
October 19, 2022
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(THE BARBELL PLAY WITH BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY),
(BRKA), (BRKA), (BAC), (KO), (AXP), (VZ), (BK) (USB),
(MRK), (ABBV), (CVX), (GM), (PCC), (BNSF), (TLT), (AAPL)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-10-19 10:04:402022-10-19 10:54:07October 19, 2022
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