Mad Hedge Biotech & Healthcare Letter
September 14, 2021
Fiat Lux
FEATURED TRADE:
(IS THIS THE BIGGEST WINNER IN A WINNER-TAKE-MOST MARKET?)
(NVTA), (ARKK), (ARKG), (SFTBY), (AMZN), (EXAS), (AAPL), (MSFT)
Tag Archive for: (MSFT)
One of the most underappreciated names in the biotechnology sector might just be the biggest winner in a winner-take-most market today: Invitae (NVTA).
Despite being at the receiving end of a seemingly endless flogging since the year started, Invitae remains an attractive stock for the likes of Cathie Woods.
In fact, this San Francisco-based company is one of the Top 20 holdings of ARK Innovation (ARKK) and ARK Genomic Revolution (ARKG).
Described by Woods as "probably one of the most important companies in the genomic revolution," Invitae is the sixth-largest holding of the ARK Investment portfolio with more than $1 billion worth of exposure.
Aside from ARK, Invitae also recently attracted the attention of Japanese tech conglomerate SoftBank (SFTBY), which came in the form of $1.2 billion worth of convertible bond investment.
Amid all these, why is Invitae still under-appreciated?
First, it’s essential to understand that biotech companies opt to target particular niches where they aim to maintain high prices and maximize profitability for as long as possible.
That way, they can maintain and continue to boost their profits.
This results in highly prohibitive costs in the healthcare innovation section, which in turn cause rationing of cases because only a select group of patients can actually afford the exorbitant fees for the innovative drug or therapy.
While rationing care and maximizing profits are obviously great for investors, this makes the innovations inaccessible to people who could not shell out the cash to take the tests or treatments.
This is where Invitae comes in.
Basically, Invitae is taking a completely different approach compared to its peers in the biotechnology world.
According to the company, its mission is "to bring comprehensive genetic information into mainstream medicine to improve healthcare for billions of people."
How will Invitae achieve this?
Instead of choosing a single genetic variant to test, which costs over $1,000 each, the company is developing a testing platform that can identify thousands of genetic variants.
The clincher? This will only cost less than $250 for the entire test panel.
This nonconforming approach to biotechnological innovations is what has primarily led to Invitae’s under-appreciation.
However, Invitae’s mission holds incredible potential.
What it means in medical terms is that the company can help about 1 in 6 people suffering from a medical condition with an inherent genetic factor.
What it means in financial terms is that the company holds the possibility of generating several hundred dollars per year from over 2 billion people—a jaw-dropping market opportunity worth $4 trillion.
One of Invitae’s key ideas is to grant people access to their genetic information and then interpret it for them.
To me, this indicates the company’s goal of doing for genetics what Amazon (AMZN) has done for book buyers.
The next question is this: Can Invitae truly accomplish this?
Let’s consider the company’s growth trajectory along with the catalysts ahead.
So far, three catalysts can push the company towards its goals.
First is the steady growth in testing volume. As with most medical procedures, the volume of genetic testing went down during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, this is now rebounding gradually.
In the first quarter of 2021, the billable volume went up by 72% year over year, with roughly 259,000 tests in that quarter alone.
Traditionally, genetic testing is generally driven by orders from doctors and the cooperation of health plans to cover the tests.
Moving forward, we expect pharmaceutical firms to play more significant roles in promoting and even paying for these tests.
Approximately 90% of the pharma pipelines these days are based on genetic conditions.
As these new and innovative genetic treatments gain FDA approval, the pharma companies would have additional vested interest in ensuring eligible patients receive testing. That way, they can drive demand for the therapies they developed.
The second catalyst comprises the oncology sector.
Genetic testing has become the trend, particularly for cancer—an undoubtedly massive and financially lucrative market.
To leverage this growth, Invitae acquired ArcherDX in 2020 in an effort to expand its offerings.
With this purchase, the company can help major cancer centers implement their testing systems while also offering support to healthcare providers who opt not to do their own testing.
The availability of these comprehensive services will serve as critical drivers of income and profitability considering the historically proven high reimbursement rates in the oncology testing segment.
Apart from this, Invitae recently announced its decision to acquire Ciitizen, a consumer health tech firm, for $325 million.
This move will allow Invitae to expand its patient database through the genomic and clinical information gathered from Ciitizen’s platform.
Thus far, Invitae has announced 13 acquisitions over the past 5 years.
The third catalyst is the continuous global growth of Invitae.
Evidently, the mission of reaching 2 billion people requires worldwide expansion—something that the company has been working on.
In fact, roughly 18% of the total billable volume of Invitae in the first quarter came from international transactions, which have the potential to grow faster than their business in the US.
To date, Invitae has been expanding its operations in Japan, Israel, Europe, and Australia.
Meanwhile, Invitae’s incredible potential has attracted other companies as well. Exact Sciences (EXAS) has been linked to the company for a potential merger among the firms interested.
Admittedly, Invitae’s mission to offer affordable and accessible genetic testing to 2 billion people will require many more years before it comes to fruition.
When that day comes, the company will join Apple (APPL), Amazon, and Microsoft (MSFT) as part of an elite group with $1 trillion and over market cap.
The long wait for Invitae to achieve this ambitious goal would be worth it for patient buy-and-hold investors.
Mad Hedge Technology Letter
September 13, 2021
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(THE DATABASE MOST WANTED BY DEVELOPERS 4 YEARS RUNNING)
(MDB), (MSFT), (IBM), (SAP), (ORCL), (CLDR)
MongoDB’s latest earnings’ results validate the concept open source software as a rival to the opposed closed-source software grid.
A keen rival of MongoDB’s RedHat was also acquired by IBM (IBM) a few years ago showing the vitality of the sub-sector.
Don’t sleep on these companies as another one Cloudera (CLDR) were taken private by private equity firms KKR and Clayton, Dubilier & Rice.
These are highly valuable assets and I’m not the only one shouting from the rooftops.
How did this all first start?
The first open-source projects were not really businesses, they were counter attacks against the unfair profits that closed-source software companies were reaping.
Microsoft (MSFT), Oracle (ORCL), SAP (SAP), to name a few, were enforcing monopoly-like “rents” for software that were substandard in quality.
The latest evolution of open source came when developers evolved the projects with two important elements.
The first is that the open-source software is now developed largely within the confines of businesses.
Often, more than 90% of the lines of code in these projects are written by the employees of the company that commercialized the software.
Second, these businesses offer their own software as a cloud service from inception.
In a sense, these are Open Core / Cloud service hybrid businesses that can obtain multiple pathways to monetize their product and that is exactly what MongoDB did.
By offering the products as SaaS, these businesses can interweave open-source software with commercial software so customers no longer have to worry about which license they should be taking.
MongoDB Atlas is a great example of this evolution and can become the dominant business model for software infrastructure.
This is their hottest product which is a fully-managed cloud database and Atlas handles all the complexity of deploying, managing, and healing deployments on the cloud service provider of your choice like Amazon or Google.
MongoDB changed how open-source software is licensed, and they introduced the new cloud service that required them and partners to compete with the largest cloud providers.
Looking quickly at second-quarter financial results, they generated revenue of $199 million, a 44% year-over-year increase and above the high-end of guidance. They grew subscription revenue 44% year over year.
Mongo Atlas revenue grew 83% year over year and now represents 56% of revenue, and they had another strong quarter of customer growth, ending the quarter with over 29,000 customers.
Businesses that can develop software faster are able to ultimately outgrow their competition.
MongoDB’s results are a clear indication that customers view MongoDB as a critical platform to accelerate their digital innovation agenda.
Customers of all types are choosing MongoDB because they can develop so much faster using this platform to build new applications and replatform legacy applications across a broad range of use cases to drive business forward.
Even though MongoDB open-source software is lower cost per unit, it makes up the total market size by leveraging the elasticity in the market. When something is cheaper, more people buy it. That’s why open-source companies have such massive and rapid adoption when they achieve product-market fit.
The model now is that companies are venturing as far as actually open sourcing all their software but applying a commercial license to parts of the software base. The premise being that real enterprise customers would pay whether the software is open or closed, and they are more incentivized to use commercial software if they can actually read the code.
Observing how airline JetBlue deployed MongoDB is how these new approaches and improved products manifest themselves in the topline revenue.
JetBlue came to the decision to overhaul their core e-commerce app, and JetBlue chose the MongoDB application data platform.
MongoDB's flexible data model allowed JetBlue to build a dynamic customer experience with modern ticketing applications, as well as predictive analytics in real-time.
An avalanche of firms is leveraging the tools of MongoDB tools to up their digital game.
Management has steered the narrative to include the ease of use and expanding the capabilities of the MongoDB platform to make it more compelling for customers to standardize on MongoDB.
For example, a serverless, customer can get started with MongoDB without having to pick a specific machine type or size. The application connects to Atlas, and they handle the elastic scaling of compute and storage seamlessly, whether an application scales fast or becomes popular. Customers no longer must do capacity planning or manual intervention to adjust the size of the deployment.
The verdict is in and deploying MongoDB to harness in-house developers to build unique commercial applications has been a winning formula.
Not only are they sheltered from rigid closed-source software, but customers can even integrate the code first, then pay later when it is deployed, and this licensing model has been extremely beneficial for developers who need to test out whether certain code is valuable or not.
Atlas is now the cash cow for MongoDB and forecasts predict acceleration in top-line growth.
Yes, this company is still small procuring revenue of just $166 million in 2018, but 2023 will see annual revenue surpass $1 billion which is why everyone wants to hop on MondoDB’s train.
I would consider any dips to deploy capital in MongoDB, I would call it a rising star of the software world, and a gem in the developers’ world.
Mad Hedge Technology Letter
September 10, 2021
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(YOUR GUIDE TO THE METAVERSE)
(RBLX), (FB), (MSFT), (APPL), (AMZN), (EPIC GAMES)
People have no idea what the Metaverse is, so I will be the one to fill you in.
What is the Metaverse? Simply put, the Metaverse is the next mega-phase of the internet, a merging of the physical world with XR, AR, and VR that is just beginning to revolutionize.
It is an extensive online world transcending individual tech platforms, where people exist in immersive, shared virtual spaces. Through avatars, people would be able to try on items available in stores or attend concerts with friends, just as they would offline.
On a recent earnings call, Facebook (FB) CEO Mark Zuckerberg detailed the Metaverse: “It's a virtual environment where you can be present with people in digital spaces,” he said. “You can kind of think about this as an embodied internet that you're inside of rather than just looking at. We believe that this is going to be the successor to the mobile internet.”
Does the Metaverse exist anywhere yet? The answer is yes, early versions of it. The closest approximations of it right now include the likes of digital game platforms Roblox (RBLX) and Fortnite.
The internet era was defined by the computer being in the living room and the connection to the internet being occasional.
The shift to mobile computing is defined by moving the computer from the living room to the office and into your pocket and changing access to the internet from occasional to continuous and persistent.
Metaverse is the idea of computing everywhere, ubiquitous, ambient. In a simplified sense, think about the Metaverse as a series of interconnected and persistent simulations.
One could almost describe it as the next internet, web 3.0.
And crypto, or some sort of crypto offspring or cousin of it, will be the coin of this new realm which is why crypto in its form now is so important.
Consider the internet and mobile internet. Over time it disrupted nearly every industry in nearly every geography.
It changed how consumers patronized, business models, products, behaviors. This produces an extraordinary economic opportunity overall.
The same will happen via the Metaverse.
In the future, instead of just doing calls over a phone call, you’ll be able to sit as a hologram on a couch, or I’ll be able to sit as a hologram on your couch, and it’ll actually feel like we’re in the same place even though it is remote.
Sharing space is what humans perceive as closer to something real.
There’s spatial audio in which distance can change the meaning of a sentence.
This has been in the works for years, ever since Zuckerberg bought Oculus in 2014 and Oculus is effectively the gateway to the Metaverse that Zuckerberg wants to spawn.
Other power Silicon Valley elite are also moving forward into the Metaverse for their own objectives. Microsoft (MSFT) CEO Satya Nadella commented at his earnings call, “As the digital and physical worlds converge, we are leading in a new layer of the infrastructure stack, the enterprise Metaverse."
Many Metaverse believers say the economy of the Metaverse will be larger than that of the physical world.
Personally, I believe it will be 100X larger than the physical world’s economies and much more dynamic.
One of the biggest winners of this Metaverse race will be Epic Games —owner of Fortnite —founded by CEO Tim Sweeney.
Epic released "Fortnite" just five years ago. The game now has 350 million registered players, with anywhere from six to 12 million people playing at any given time.
The Metaverse is a great example of a technology that will likely bring huge benefits to people but there will be unintended, unanticipated costs and harms.
Right now, the Metaverse operates with zero regulations, while its previous iteration, the internet, operates with the least number of regulations out of any major industry in 2021.
The bottom line is that every power Silicon Valley has skin in the game such as Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, and Netflix after Epic Games, and they will receive another supercharger to accelerating revenue growth.
The revenue growth in the Metaverse for these companies will make what they earn in the physical world look like a pittance.
We are driving to that point in tech development through hell or high water, and like how every company became a tech company to survive, when the Metaverse and an operable iteration of it become good enough for people to transact smoothly, every company will have to become a Metaverse company or die.
This is the future and it’s creeping closer by the day.
Global Market Comments
August 5, 2021
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(THE NEW AI BOOK THAT INVESTORS ARE SCRAMBLING FOR),
(GOOG), (FB), (AMZN), MSFT), (BABA), (BIDU),
(TENCENT), (TSLA), (NVDA), (AMD), (MU), (LRCX)
A better headline for this piece would be “The Future of You,” as artificial intelligence is about to become so integral to your work, your investment portfolio, and even your very existence that you won’t be able to live without it, quite literally.
Well, do I have some great news for you. A blockbuster book about the state of play on all things AI will be released on September 25, and I managed to obtain and read an advanced copy. It is entitled: AI Superpowers: China, Silicon Valley, and the New World Order by Dr. Kai-Fu Lee.
The bottom line: The future is even more unbelievable than you remotely imagined. We are at the very early days of this giant megatrend, and the investment opportunities will be nothing less than spectacular.
And here is a barn burner. The price of AI is dropping fast as hundreds of thousands of new programmers pour into the field. Those $10 million signing bonuses are about to become a thing of the past.
Dr. Lee is certainly someone to take seriously. He obtained one of the first Ph.D.’s in AI from Carnegie Mellon University. He was the president of Google (GOOG) China and put in stints at Microsoft (MSFT) and Apple (AAPL). Today, he is the CEO of Sinovation Ventures, the largest AI venture capital firm in China, and is a board director of Alibaba (BABA).
AI is nothing more than deep learning, or super pattern recognition. Dr. Lee dates the onset of artificial intelligence to 1952, when an IBM mainframe computer learned to play checkers and beat human opponents. By 1955, it learned to develop strategies on its own.
Dr. Lee sees the AI field ultimately divided into two spheres of dominance, the U.S. and China. No one else is devoting a fraction of the resources needed to become a serious player. The good news is that Russia and Iran are nowhere in the game.
While the U.S. dominates in the original theory and algorithms that founded AI, China is about to take the lead in applications. It can do this because it has access to mountains of data that dwarf those available in America. China processes three times more mobile phones, five times more Internet customers, 10 times more eat-out orders, and 50 times more mobile transactions. In a future where data is currency, this is huge.
The wake-up call for China in applications took place two years ago when U.S. and Korean AI programs beat grandmasters in the traditional Chinese game of Go. Long a goal of AI programmers, this great leap forward took place 20 years earlier than had been anticipated. This created an AI stampede in the Middle Kingdom that led to the current bubble.
The result has been applications that are still in the realm of science fiction in the U.S. The Chinese equivalent of eBay (EBAY), Taobao, doesn’t charge fees because its customer base is so big it can remain profitable on ad revenues only. Want to be more beautiful in your selfies sent to friends? A Chinese app will do that for you, Beauty Plus.
The Chinese equivalent of Yelp, Dianping, has 600,000 deliverymen on mopeds. The number of takeout meals is so vast that it has been able to drop delivery costs from $6 a meal to 60 cents. As a result, traditional restaurants are dying out in China.
Teachers in Chinese schools no longer take attendance. Students are checked off when they enter the classroom by facial recognition software. And heaven help you if you jaywalk in a Chinese city. Similar software will automatically issue you a citation with a fine and send it to your home.
Credit card fraud is actually on the decline in China as dubious transactions are blocked by facial matching software. The bank simply calls you, asks you to look into your phone, takes your picture, and then matches it with the image they have on file.
Dr. Lee sees AI unfolding in four waves, and there are currently companies operating in every one of these (see graph below):
1) Internet AI
The creation of black boxes and specialized algorithms opened the door to monetizing code. This was the path for today’s giants that dominate online commerce today, Google (GOOG), Amazon (AMZN), JD.com (JD), and Facebook (FB). Alibaba (BABA), Baidu (BIDU), and Tencent followed.
2) Business AI
Think big data. This is the era we just entered, where massive data from online customers, financial transactions, and health care led to the writing of new algorithms that maximize profitability. Suddenly, companies can turn magic knobs to achieve desired goals, such as stepping up penetration or monetization.
3) Perception AI
Using trillions of sensors worldwide, analog data on any movement, facial expression, sound, and image are converted into digital data, and then mined for conclusions by more advanced algorithms. Cameras are suddenly everywhere. Amazon’s Alexa is the first step in this process, where your conversations are recorded and then mined for keywords about your every want and desire.
Think of autonomous fast food where you walk in your local joint and it immediately recognizes you, offers you your preferred dishes, and then auto bills your online account for your purchase. Amazon has already done this with a Whole Foods store in Seattle.
4) Autonomous AI
Think every kind of motion. AI will get applied to autonomous driving, local shuttles, factory forklifts, assembly lines, and inspections of every kind. Again, data and processing demand take an enormous leap upward. Tesla (TSLA), Waymo (GOOG), and Uber are already very active in this field.
The book focuses a lot on the future of work. Dr. Lee creates a four-part scatter chart predicting the viability of several types of skills based on optimization, compassion, creativity, and strategy (see below).
If you are a truck driver, in customer support, or a dishwasher, or engage in any other repetitive and redundant profession your outlook is grim. If you can supplement AI, such as a CEO, economist, or marketing head you’ll do fine. People who can do what AI can’t, such as teachers and artists, will prosper.
The Investment Angle
There have been only two ways to invest in AI until now. You can buy shares in any of the seven giants above, whose shares have already risen for 100- or 1,000-fold.
You can invest in the nets and bolts parts providers, such as NVIDIA (NVDA), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Micron Technology (MU), and Lam Research (LRCX), which provide the basic building blocks for the Internet infrastructure.
Fortunately for our paid subscribers, the Mad Hedge Trade Alert Service caught all of these very early.
What’s missing is the “in-between companies,” which are out of your reach because they are locked up in university labs or venture capital funds. Many of these never see the light of day as public companies because they get taken over by the tech giants above. It’s effectively a closed club that won’t let outsiders in. It’s a dilemma that vexes any serious technology investor.
When quantum computing arrives in a decade, you can take all the functionality above and multiply it by a trillion-fold, while costs drop a similar amount. That’s when things really get interesting. But then, I’ve seen trillion-fold increases in technology before.
I hope I live to see another.
Personally, I Prefer the Original
Global Market Comments
August 2, 2021
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, or TAKING A BREAK)
(AAPL), (AMZN), (FB), (MSFT), (TSLA), (JPM), (TLT), (SPY)
When things can’t be better, they really can’t get any better, and there is no upside left.
As I expected, big tech companies announced earnings for the ages, the top four totaling a staggering $56.6 billion in profits in Q2, or $226.4 billion annualized. That compares to total US Q1 profits of $2.347 trillion. Then their stocks fell apart, with Amazon leading the charge to the downside.
To say tech earnings were impressive would be a vast understatement, with Apple (AAPL) coming in at $21.7 billion, Amazon (AMZN) at $7.8 billion, Facebook (FB) at $10.4 billion, and Microsoft (MSFT) at $16.7 billion.
However, since we are in the “What have you done for me lately” business, what do we have to look forward in August?
Covid cases are soaring nationally tripling off the 15,000 a day lows of a month ago. The delta variant is twice as contagious and twice as fatal as earlier ones. Mask mandates are back in the big cities, pushing back economic growth and a jobs recovery out into 2022. The least vaccinated stated are seeing hospital systems overwhelmed once again. School reopenings are now an unknown, and if they do, it will be with masks.
I sent my kids to a Boy Scout camp this week. On the second day, two unvaccinated staff members tested positive for delta and the county immediately shut the place down, sending home 500 disappointed scouts and parents. Dreams of long sought merit badges went up in smoke. The same thing is happening across the entire economy.
The next three months are historically the worst performing of the year, generating an average 0.03% over the last 100 years. Inflation reports are going to remain high for the rest of the year. The Fed has a new reason to keep interest rates a zero for longer, bad for banks, brokers, commodities, and industrials.
Oh, and the next round of spectacular tech earnings are three months away.
There is another factor in play. Investors have made the most money in their lives over the last 16 months, including me. The temptation to take the money and run is strong and irresistible. Traders have visions of Ferraris dancing in their eyes. This alone would bring on an overdue 5%-10% pull back.
So what is the smart thing to do here? Sell all your short-term positions but keep all your long-term positions and LEAPS. The market isn’t going down enough to justify the round-trip expenses and capital gains taxes.
If you have new cash flows keep it in money market funds. People will be shocked by the speed and viciousness of the coming selloff. But when it occurs, the best buying opportunity in a year will be on its knees begging for your attention.
It may feel cataclysmic, another Armageddon, and like the end of the world, but it won’t be. After all, we have seen no less than 36 10% corrections in my lifetime. The investors who hung in made the most money every single time.
I’ll tell you when we hit bottom with a raft of new LEAPS recommendations, provided I can get them out fast enough.
The Fed stands pat, keeping overnight rates at 0%-0.25%. The delta variant has pushed the taper off three months, but Jay Powell gave the barest of hints that it is the next step to take. We have 9 million unemployed and 9 million job openings but there is a massive skills gap, with jobless waitresses and retails in over supply and coders and artificial intelligence specialist sought after. It’s all the result of 40 years of under investment in our education system.
US Q2 GDP comes in at 6.5%, one of the strongest in economic history, but less than forecasts that were as high as 10%. Supply chain restraints we the main explanation for the shortfall. All that does is push growth into 2022, when people CAN get parts and labor. In the meantime, personal consumption soared by 11.8%, the hottest report since 1952, proving the demand is there.
Covid Cases triple from recent lows to 43,700 a day. Blame the delta variant, which originated in India, and now accounts for 86% of new cases. Twice as contiguous, with a greater fatality rate and more long-term effect, delta is prompting the return of mask mandates in several cities. Only the unvaccinated are affected. This could be the trigger for the next correction.
Smart phones will deliver the next big chip shortage, even if the chip shortage for cars abates. The bad news? There are 22 times more phones produced each year than cars, 1.4 billion versus only 64 million in 2020. Out of the frying pan and into the fire.
S&P Case Shiller smashes all records, up 17% YOY for national home prices. Phoenix (25.9%), San Diego (24.7%), and Seattle (23.4%) lead. These numbers are past “extraordinary.” Expect it to continue.
New Homes Sales plunge to 676,000, down 6.6% on a signed contract basis, but prices are up 6%. Inventories are up from 5 months to a still low 6.5 months. Shortages of land, labor, and materials are still the big issue.
Pending Home Sales drop 1.9% in June on a signed contract bases. High prices are curing high prices, with the Case-Shiller National Home Price Index up 17% YOY. The south and west posted the biggest declines. Single family homes have dropped for three months in a row to a one year low.
China meltdown continues, with the Beijing government apparently withdrawing from western capital markets. It’s all about showing the world who is in charge and punishing the billionaires by destroying their stocks. They are wiping out $1 trillion in equity per day and don’t care if you get hit as well. Cathy Wood’s Ark Innovation ETF (ARKK) is dumping everything they have. Avoid China at all cost.
Tesla announces first $1 billion profit in Q2, despite losing $23 million in Bitcoin. That is 10X the year ago report. They could have made a lot more if they had more chip supplies. The energy business brought in a rapidly growing $800 million in revenues. The Austin and Berlin Gigafactory’s are coming online at the end of the year, allowing them to scale globally. The Cybertruck is on hold and production of Powerwall’s cut back until they can get more chip supplies, creating extreme shortages. Buy (TSLA) on dips. There’s a 10X from here.
Tesla claims No.2 auto sales spot in Europe in June, just behind Volkswagen’s Golf, and beathing Daimler Benz, Audi, Fiat, and Renault. The company shipped 25,697 Model 3’s, which is perfect for the continent’s tight spaces, short distances, and green preferences. Big government subsidies to switch from internal combustion engines helped too.
Tesla Profits
Bitcoin tops $40,000 in a massive short covering rally. Tesla may start taking the crypto currency as payment for new vehicles and Amazon (AMZN) may get into the game as well. While China is studying way to make a digital yuan (CYB) and Europe a digital Euro (FXE), the US congress sees such a move as pointless.
Robinhood IPO (HOOD) Bombs, trading down as much as 12% from its $38.00 IPO price. That leaves it with a still impressive $29 billion market capitalization, a fifth the size of Morgan Stanley. What happens when individuals get their allocations? No “diamond hands” here. It looks like a “BUY” after it drops by half opportunity, just like Tesla after its IPO. The facilitator of meme stock frenzies has best ever year is behind it, or until we get another pandemic. The company has already paid $127 million in fines and almost went under in January. Avoid (HOOD) for now.
My Ten Year View
When we come out the other side of pandemic, we will be perfectly poised to launch into my new American Golden Age, or the next Roaring Twenties. With interest rates still at zero, oil cheap, there will be no reason not to. The Dow Average will rise by 800% to 240,000 or more in the coming decade. The American coming out the other side of the pandemic will be far more efficient and profitable than the old. Dow 240,000 here we come!
My Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch saw a modest +0.61% in July. My 2021 year-to-date performance appreciated to 69.21%. The Dow Average was up 14.16% so far in 2021.
I stuck with my four positions, a long in (JPM) and a short in the (TLT) and a double short in the (SPY). I bled all the way until Friday, when big hits to tech stocks took the (SPY) down and edging me up to a positive return for July. That leaves me 60% in cash. I’m keeping positions small as long as we are at extreme overbought conditions.
That brings my 11-year total return to 491.76%, some 2.00 times the S&P 500 (SPX) over the same period. My 12-year average annualized return now stands at an unbelievable 12.15%, easily the highest in the industry.
My trailing one-year return retreated to positively eye-popping 107.72%. I truly have to pinch myself when I see numbers like this. I bet many of you are making the biggest money of your long lives.
We need to keep an eye on the number of US Corona virus cases at 34.9 million and rising quickly and deaths topping 613,000, which you can find here.
The coming week will bring our monthly blockbuster jobs reports on the data front.
On Monday, August 2 at 7:00 AM, the Manufacturing PMI for July is published. NXP Semiconductor (NXP) reports.
On Tuesday, August 3, at 7:30 AM, Factory Orders for June are released. Amgen (AMGN), Eli Lily (LLY), and Alibaba (BABA) report.
On Wednesday, August 4 at 5:30 AM, the ADP Private Employment Report is published. Uber (UBER) and General Motors (GM) report.
On Thursday, August 5 at 8:30 AM, Weekly Jobless Claims are announced. Square (SQ) reports.
On Friday, August 6 at 8:30 AM, we get the Nonfarm Payroll Report for July. Berkshire Hathaway (BRKB) reports.
As for me, I am reminded of my own summer of 1967, back when I was 15, which may be the subject of a future book and movie.
My family summer vacation that year was on the slopes of Mount Rainier in Washington state. Since it was raining every day, the other kids wanted to go home early. So my parents left me and my younger brother in the hands of Mount Everest veteran Jim Whitaker to summit the 14,411 peak (click here for his story). The deal was for us to hitch hike back to Los Angeles when we got off the mountain.
In those days, it wasn’t such an unreasonable plan. The Vietnam war was on, and a lot of soldiers were thumbing their way to report to duty. My parents figured that since I was an Eagle Scout, I could take care of myself.
When we got off the mountain, I looked at the map and saw there was this fascinating country called “Canada” just to the north. So, it was off to Vancouver. Once there, I learned there was a world’s fair going on in Montreal some 2,843 away, so we hit the TransCanada Highway going east.
We ran out of money in Alberta, so we took jobs as ranch hands. There we learned the joys of running down lost cattle on horseback, working all day at a buzz saw, inseminating cows, and eating steak three times a day. I made friends with the cowboys by reading them their mail, which they were unable to do. There were lots of bills due, child support owed, and alimony demands.
In Saskatchewan, the roads ran out of cars, so we hopped a freight train in Manitoba, narrowly missing getting mugged in the rail yard. We camped out in a box car occupied by other rough sorts for three days. There’s nothing like opening the doors and watching the scenery go by with no billboards ad, the wind blowing through your hair!
When the engineer spotted us on a curve, he stopped the train and invited us to up the engine. There, we slept on the floor, and he even let us take turns driving! That’s how we made it to Ontario, the most mosquito-infested place on the face of the earth.
Our last ride into Montreal offered to let us stay in his boat house as long as we wanted so there we stayed. Thank you, WWII RAF bomber pilot Group Captain John Chenier!
Broke again, we landed jobs at a hamburger stand at Expo 67 in front of the imposing Russian pavilion. The pay was $1 an hour and all we could eat. At the end of the month, Madame Desjardin couldn’t balance her inventory, so she asked how many burgers I was eating a day. I answer 20, and my brother answered 21. “Well, there’s my inventory problem” she replied.
And then there was Suzanne Baribeau, the love of my life. I wonder whatever happened to her?
I had to allow two weeks to hitch hike home in time for school. When we crossed the border at Niagara Falls, we were arrested as draft dodgers as we were too young to have driver’s licenses. It took a long conversation between US Immigration and my dad to convince them we weren’t.
We developed a system where my parents could keep track of us. Long distance calls were then enormously expensive. So, I called home collect and when my dad answered he asked what city the call was coming from. When the operator gave him the answer, he said he would not accept the call. I remember lots of surprised operators. But the calls were free, and dad always knew where we were.
We had to divert around Detroit to avoid the race riots there. We got robbed in North Dakota, where we were in the only car for 50 miles. We made it as far has Seattle with only three days left until school started.
Finally, my parents had a nervous breakdown. They bought us our first air tickets ever to get back to LA, then quite an investment.
I haven’t stopped traveling since, my tally now topping all 50 states and 135 countries.
And I learned an amazing thing about the United States. Almost everyone in the country is honest, kind, and generous. Virtually every night, our last ride of the day took us home and provided us with an extra bedroom or a garage to sleep in. The next morning, they fed us a big breakfast and dropped us off at a good spot to catch the next ride.
It was the adventure of a lifetime and am a better man for it.
Stay healthy.
John Thomas
CEO & Publisher
The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader
Summit of Mt. Rainier 1967
McKinnon Ranch Bassano Alberta 1967
American Pavilion Expo 67
Hamburger Stand at Expo 67
Picking Cherries in Michigan 1967
