Mad Hedge Technology Letter
January 15, 2020
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(THE TRADE ALERT DROUGHT EXPLAINED)
(GOOGL), (AMZN), (MSFT), (FB), (JPM)
Tag Archive for: (MSFT)
Why has there been a dearth of Mad Hedge Tech trade alerts to start the year?
Let me explain.
Love it or hate it – earnings' season is about to kick off.
And now, this is the part where it starts to get ugly with consensus of a 2% year-over-year decline in fourth-quarter S&P 500 earnings.
Banks are expected to be a rare bright spot and JPMorgan (JPM) delivered us stable results as one of the first to report.
The unfortunate part of the equation is that a lot has to go right for tech shares to go unimpeded for the rest of the year.
What we have seen in the first 2 weeks of the year is a FOMO (fear-of-missing-out) environment in which valuations have lurched forward to 20 times forward earnings.
Tech is overwhelmingly carrying the load and I have banged on the drums about this thread advising readers to be acutely aware of a heavy positive bias towards the FANGs in 2020.
Well, that is already panning out in the first two weeks.
Examples are widespread with Facebook (FB) up over 8% and Apple (AAPL) already topping 6% to start the year.
It would be farfetched to believe that the tech sector can keep pilfering itself higher in the face of negative earnings growth.
However, behind the scenes, relations between China and America are improving, the threat of war with Iran is subsiding, and the Fed continues strong support tempering down risk to tech shares.
The situation we find ourselves in is that of an expensive tech sector that will again guide down on upcoming earnings’ reports telegraphing softness moving into the middle part of the year.
The ensuing post-earnings sell-off in specific software stocks will offer optimal short-term entry points.
The current risk-reward of chasing FANGs at these levels is unfavorable.
Another glaring example of the FANG outperformance is Alphabet who rose 26% last year.
They are on the brink of joining the $1 trillion club that Apple and Microsoft (MSFT) have joined.
Its market value currently sits idling at $985 billion and its surge towards the vaunted trillion-dollar mark is more of a case of when than if.
Alphabet (GOOGL), more or less, still expands at the same rate of low-20% annually that it did 10 years ago.
Sales have ballooned to $160 billion annually and they sit at the forefront of every cutting-edge sub-sector in technology from artificial intelligence, autonomous driving, and augmented reality.
The engine that drives Google is still its core advertising business and strategic premium acquisitions like YouTube and penetration into other fast-growing areas such as cloud computing.
It has rounded out into a broad-based revenue accumulator.
Apple was the first public company to surpass a $1 trillion market cap and ended the year up 86% in 2019, and it has only gone up since then currently checking in at a $1.36 trillion market cap.
Microsoft followed Apple, hitting the $1 trillion mark during the first half of 2019, and it is now worth $1.23 trillion.
Amazon fell back after surging past the $1 trillion mark but inevitably will achieve it on the next heave up.
Amazon shares have been quickly heating up since its capitulation from $2,000 in July 2019 and round out the group of overperforming tech behemoths.
Although the rush into big-cap tech stocks in the first two weeks has been a bullish signal, it still doesn’t marry up with the lack of earnings growth in the overall tech sector.
Companies beating meager expectations will experience strong share appreciation although not at the pace of last year and will still serve investors pockets of overperformance.
We will find our spots to trade shortly, but better to keep our gunpowder dry at the moment.
Mad Hedge Technology Letter
December 30, 2019
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(TECH TALENT PUTS THEIR FOOT DOWN ),
(EA), (ADBE), (TSLA), (GOOGL), (TWTR)
Mad Hedge Technology Letter
December 27, 2018
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(WHY YOU CANNOT NEGLECT THE CLOUD)
(AMZN), (MSFT), (GOOGL), (AAPL), (CRM), (ZS)
Mad Hedge Technology Letter
December 18, 2019
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(CYBER SECURITY IS STILL A BUY)
(SYMC), (PANW), (CSCO), (FTNT), (AAPL), (MSFT)
What does the technology sector’s “last gasp up” mean for tech stocks?
At the Mad Hedge Lake Tahoe Conference in late October, I correctly identified that the tech sector would experience a last leg to the price appreciation that has been part of a broader 10-year bull market in American equities.
The past 7 weeks have been nothing short of spectacular for tech shares as not only have the heavy hitters delivered in spades, like Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT), but tech growth shares have been released from the penalty box after a short-dated growth scare and joined the rally with zeal.
How long will the “last gasp up” last?
The bar was set exceptionally low in 2019 because senior management spun the trade war acrimony into the accounting calculus effectively offering CFOs a chance to lower expectations to the point of getting away with murder.
Even with earnings’ expectations reset at nadir data points, performance was a mixed bag.
Superior tech companies were able to jump over the pitiful expectations, then if that wasn’t enough, they pushed backwards any inklings of earnings growth by guiding as low as they possibly could.
An archetypal example is Palo Alto Networks (PANW) whose shares dipped more than 8.5% in pre-market trading after issuing their quarterly earnings report.
The company announced sales of $771.9 million with an adjusted EPS of $1.05 topping analysts' estimates.
Why did shares sully?
Palo Alto Networks tanked guidance by telling investors they expect sales between $838 million and $848 million in the second quarter.
The expectation represented a midpoint sales forecast of $843 million, which is lower than the consensus estimates of $845.12 million.
The adjusted EPS in the second quarter is estimated to be $1.11–$1.13, below the consensus earnings forecast of $1.30.
Palo Alto Networks is forecasting sales between $3.44 billion and $3.46 billion with an EPS between $4.9 and $5.0 for next year, compared to analyst projections of $3.46 billion in revenue and an EPS of $5.07 in 2020.
PANW accounts for a big piece of the pie in the cybersecurity trade comprising 16.2% in 2019.
Overall industry growth is strong at 10.4%, and PANW managed to increase its sales by 22.3% to $633.7 million.
This cybersecurity company is one of my favorite tech stalwarts and is as rock-solid as they come for a second-tier tech growth company.
Another trend that dovetails closely with the last gasp up thesis is buying growth.
At this stage in the tech cycle, the low hanging fruit has been plucked and tech companies are increasingly finding it hard to generate organic growth.
Companies are now resorting to inorganic growth with Palo Alto Networks announcing that it will acquire Aporeto for $150 million in an all-cash transaction.
This isn’t just a one-off for PANW, they have acquired four other companies in 2019 to plug into their growth puzzle.
They have also completed the acquisition of an IoT cybersecurity firm Zingbox.
Palo Alto Networks acquired two cloud security startups in July as well - Demisto to gain traction in the AI security segment and Twistlock, the leader in container security.
The other top players in this field are Cisco (CSCO), Fortinet (FTNT) and Symantec (SYMC).
The bullish secular trend in cybersecurity is watertight and comments from Nikesh Arora, CEO of Palo Alto Networks, only reconfirmed the strength in cybersecurity when he said, “As a growing number of organizations move their business to the cloud, developers increasingly rely on cloud-native technologies such as containers and serverless infrastructure to accelerate the development, testing, and deployment of modern applications and services.”
What’s next for investors?
Barring any exogenous shocks, the last gasp up continues and recent macro policy developments have supported this hypothesis as well as the tailwinds of an improving economy.
Palo Alto Networks is part of a high growth segment and many corporates are on record contemplating lower enterprise tech spending heading into 2020.
This sets up another incredibly low bar for cybersecurity companies to hop over next year and I believe the best in show such as PANW, Fortinet, Cisco, and Symantec will pass with flying colors.
The interesting acid test will occur at the end of 2020 when tech firms and sub-segments of tech such, as cybersecurity, release commentary on whether 2021 guidance could signal ensuing risk of being dragged into recessionary turbulence.
A 2021 tech sector recession is certainly not priced into current tech share valuations in this frothy period of asset appreciation.
Global Market Comments
December 16, 2019
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, or THE GOOD NEWS IS OUT)
(FXI), (AAPL), (FXB), (VIX), (USO), (BABA), (NSC), (MSFT), (GOOGL)
After a China trade deal, UK election and a NAFTA 2.0 are announced, what is left to drive the stock market?
That is a very good question and explains why the Dow Average was up only a microscopic 3.33 points on Friday. It had spent much of the day down.
It’s not a pretty picture.
Not only is the market running out of drivers, the economic data is still decelerating, with the GDP running a 1.5% rate, inflation rising, and corporate earnings growth at zero, with earnings multiples at 17-year high.
A Wiley Coyote moment comes to mind.
And while we are finishing a great 27% year (56% for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader), we are in effect getting three years of performance packed into one. Not only did we pull forward a good chunk of 2020’s performance, we borrowed heavily from 2018 as well, coming in at such a low start as we did.
Thus 2019 might well get bookended by an 8% gain in 2018 and another 8% year in 2020, with dividends. Blame it all on the massive liquidity burst we got from the Fed that started last December and continues unabated.
Stocks have been floated by a tidal wave of new money creation worldwide. Globally, new money creation is running at a $1 trillion a month rate and much of that is ending up in the US stock market, especially in technology shares.
The rush was enough to drive Apple (AAPL) to a new all-time high at $275, pushing its market capitalization up to a staggering $1.2 trillion. It could surpass Saudi ARAMCO’s $2 trillion valuation in a year or two.
Steve Jobs’ creation now accounts for a mind-blowing 6% of the S&P 500 and 4% of total US stock market capitalization. It’s the best argument I’ve ever heard for becoming a hippy and dropping out of college after one quarter.
Which leads us to paint a picture for the 2020 stock market. Even the most optimistic outlook for next year, that of Ed Yardeni, is calling for only a 10% gain. Many prognostications are calling for negative numbers next year.
You might be better off parking your money in a 2% CD and taking a cruise around the world. I’ve done that before, and it works fantastically well.
You’re only going to have one shot at making money in 2020. Wait for a 10%-20% nosedive to go long. My guess is that happens when it becomes clear that the Democrats are dominating in the polls (Joe Biden is currently 14 points ahead in swing state Pennsylvania). No matter who wins, less borrowing, less spending, and higher taxes will prevail.
Then stocks will rally 10% AFTER the election because the uncertainty is gone. That will get you a 20%-30% profit in 2020, but only of you are a trader and follow the Mad Hedge Fund Trader. After basking in their own brilliance in 2019, 2020 might be a year when indexers wish they never heard of the term.
In the end, corporate earnings growth always wins, especially in tech, which is still growing at 20% a year. Remember, my 2030 forecast for the Dow Average is 125,000.
China (FXI) won big in mini trade deal. We rolled back a tariff increase that was never going to happen and the Chinese buy $50 billion worth of soybeans they were going to buy anyway, except at half the price that prevailed two years ago. All of it will come out of stockpiles built up during the trade war. Only the ag sector is affected, which is 2% of the US economy. The ag markets aren’t buying it. If this were a real trade deal, stocks would be up 1,000 points, not 89.
Conservatives won big in UK election. The British pound (FXB) is up 2% and stocks are soaring. A hard Brexit is coming, so look for Scotland to secede and Northern Ireland to join the Republic. The UK will be gone as we know it. Britain’s standard of living will plummet. Great Britain will no longer be great, and the Russians financed the whole thing.
Volatility crashed, as complacency rules supreme. Don’t buy (VIX) until we see the $11 handle again.
Chinese copper purchases hit a 13-month high, up 12.1% in November, to 483,000 metric tonnes. It explains the 78% move up in Freeport McMoRan (FCX) since October, the world’s largest producer. Obviously, someone believes a trade deal is coming. My long LEAP players love it.
US Consumer inflation expectations rebounded, up 0.1% to 2.5%, accounting to the New York Fed. That’s crawling up from a five-year low, a slightly positive economic note.
Saudi ARAMCO went public, with a 10% pop in the shares on the first two days, providing a $24 billion fund raise. This is one of the top three largest IPOs in history after Alibaba (BABA) and Softbank. It values the company at $1.88 trillion. Oil (USO) is down a dollar on the news, no longer needing artificial support to get the deal done. This could be one of the seminal shorts of our generation.
NAFTA 2.0 was signed, removing a potential negative from the market. It is 90% of the original NAFTA, not the “greatest trade deal in history” as claimed. Buy the main North/South railroad, Norfolk Southern (NSC) on the news.
Weekly Jobless Claims soared to a two-year high, by 49,000 to 252,000. Are stores laying people off from Christmas early this year, or did they never hire in the first place because the retail businesses are gone? Peak jobs are in. US job growth is now far slower than in the Obama era, as is GDP growth.
Most US companies will have fewer staff in 2020, except Mad Hedge Fund Trader. More automation and algos mean fewer humans. Only a capital spending freeze caused by the trade war kept a low of low-skilled people in their jobs.
This was a week for the Mad Hedge Trader Alert Service to catapult to new all-time highs.
My long positions have shrunk to my core (MSFT) and (GOOGL), which expire with the coming December 20 option expiration.
My Global Trading Dispatch performance ballooned to +356.00% for the past ten years, a new all-time high. My 2019 year-to-date catapulted back up to +55.86%. December stands at an outstanding +4.85% profit. My ten-year average annualized profit rebounded to +35.59%.
The coming week will be a noneventful one on the data front, with some housing data and the Q3 GDP on the menu. Anyway, everyone else will be out Christmas shopping or attending parties.
On Monday, December 16 at 9:30 AM, New York Empire State Manufacturing Index for December is out.
On Tuesday, December 17 at 9:30 AM, Housing Starts for November are released.
On Wednesday, December 18 at 11:30 AM, US EIA Crude Stocks for the previous week are announced.
On Thursday, December 19 at 8:00 AM Existing Home Sales are published. At 8:30 AM, we get Weekly Jobless Claims.
On Friday, December 20 at 9:30 AM, the final read on US Q3 GDP is printed. The Baker Hughes Rig Count follows at 2:00 PM.
As for me, after blowing out 1,200 Christmas trees, the Boy Scouts will be taking down the tree lot for the year. And who do they turn to when it comes to wielding a chain saw or sledge hammer?
Good luck and good trading.
John Thomas
CEO & Publisher
The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader
Global Market Comments
December 10, 2019
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(MAD HEDGE FUND TRADER ANNOUNCES STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP WITH TASTYTRADE),
(A NOTE ON OPTIONS CALLED AWAY),
(MSFT), (TLT), (BA), (GOOGL), (SPY)
Mad Hedge Technology Letter
December 6, 2019
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(AUGMENTED REALITY IS HEATING UP),
(AAPL), (LITE), (QCOM), (NVDA), (ADSK), (FB), (MSFT), (SNAP)
