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Tag Archive for: (REGN)

Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Low-Key Post-COVID-19 Recovery Stock

Biotech Letter

If you still remember the news about the flash recovery from COVID-19 of then-President Trump during the campaign period last year, then you know that the express cure was not delivered by any of the vaccine makers that were all the rage at the time like Moderna (MRNA), Novavax (NVAX), BioNTech (BNTX), or even Pfizer (PFE).

Instead, the cure was credited to a lesser-known cocktail of antibodies, called REGEN-COV, developed by Regeneron (REGN).  

Recently, the same treatment was used in Germany in response to the shortage of COVID-19 vaccines and the demand for alternatives.

Despite the promising results and the highly publicized effects of Regeneron’s treatment, the company’s share price still hasn’t shown any meaningful upside.

Nonetheless, Regeneron still secured some agreements for REGEN-COV.

Based on the June 2020 agreement of Regeneron with the US government, the company expects to sell $260 million worth of REGEN-COV in the first quarter of 2021 for a fixed number of orders.

For the second quarter of 2021, though, the two parties set different terms for their deal.

Under these new terms, the US government will pay per dose regardless of REGEN-COV’s dose size.

Given the latest numbers from Regeneron’s trials, this could mean lower costs for the company.

Data from the clinical trials showed that REGEN-COV had the same effectiveness at the lower 1,200 mg dosage compared to the currently approved amount by the US FDA, which is 2,400 mg.

In fact, Regeneron’s treatment is reported to be as effective as the COVID-19 antibody therapies developed by Vir Biotechnology (VIR) and even Eli Lilly’s (LLY) candidate.

Looking at the positive results from Regeneron’s Phase 3 trials for REGEN-COV, it’s reasonable to expect higher sales than previously estimated.

Now, Regeneron shared that it aims to supply 1.25 million doses of the COVID-19 antibody therapy at the lower but equally effective 1,200 mg dose level.

If the FDA agrees to this emergency use authorization request, then Regeneron will be able to supply twice the number of COVID-19 doses.

If it delivers these doses by June 30, the US government will buy them for $2.6 billion regardless of the dosage used.

On average, Regeneron is expected to generate roughly $2.9 billion in sales for its COVID-19 antibody treatment.

Meanwhile, if REGEN-COV gains full FDA approval and gets marketed commercially, then the treatment can rake in at least $3.5 billion and peak at $5 billion this year alone.

Outside its COVID-19 program, Regeneron actually recorded better-than-expected results last year despite the pandemic ravishing the economy.

For example, there was a rebound in demand for its top-selling Eylea, with sales of the wet age-related macular degeneration (AMD) drug rising by 10% in the fourth quarter of 2020 to reach a total of $1.34 billion.

Bolstering the dominance of Eylea in the AMD market and to combat emerging competitors like Roche (RHHBY) with Faricimab and Novartis (NVS) with Beovu, Regeneron is looking to expand the drug’s application to cover more age groups.

Meanwhile, another bestseller, Dupixent, reached $1.17 billion in sales last year.

This is an impressive climb for the atopic dermatitis medication, which was developed with Sanofi (SNY), since it only recorded $751.5 million in the same period in 2019.

That indicates roughly 75% growth, with over a million prescriptions written for Dupixent in the US alone.

However, only 6% of those eligible patients have been treated with Regeneron’s product thus far.

This means that Dupixent has a lot of room to grow, with this drug estimated to reach peak sales at $12.5 billion.

Needless to say, Dupixent is quickly transforming into a blockbuster treatment.

Since its approval for eczema in 2017, this drug has expanded its indication to cover moderate-to-severe atopic dermatitis not only among teens but also children. Notably, Dupixent holds a monopoly for this application to children.

Another revenue stream for Regeneron is its oncology sector led by Libtayo.

In 2020, net sales of this skin cancer treatment reached $348 million, showing an impressive 80% growth.

To date, Regeneron has at least 12 oncology treatments under clinical development.

In terms of the bottom line, Regeneron exceeded the expectations of $8.38 and reported adjusted earnings per share of $9.53 instead.

As vaccine rollouts continue to be a priority, it’s safe to say that the worst of the COVID-19 is just about in sight.

Consequently, investors are now looking into recovery and stocks that appear to be good buys when the coronavirus eventually becomes a thing of the past.

Regeneron is one of the attractive buys so far. While it has been underperforming in the past weeks, its business actually looks to be in great shape even if the pandemic goes on for longer.

regeneron covid

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-04-08 16:00:292021-04-13 18:52:41Low-Key Post-COVID-19 Recovery Stock
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

March 30, 2021

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech & Healthcare Letter
March 30, 2021
Fiat Lux

FEATURED TRADE:

(A PURE PLAY STOCK SELLING AT A BARGAIN)
(PFE), (BNTX), (MRNA), (AZN), (JNJ), (NVAX), (MRK), (VTRS), (LLY), (REGN)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-03-30 16:02:452021-03-30 17:08:16March 30, 2021
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

A Pure Play Stock Selling at a Bargain

Biotech Letter

It’s virtually impossible to find a period in history when drug development gained the unmitigated attention of the whole world.

Yet, this is exactly what happened in 2020 when we all waited with bated breath for the results of COVID-19 trials from the likes of Pfizer (PFE), BioNTech (BNTX), Moderna (MRNA), AstraZeneca (AZN), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), and Novavax (NVAX).

Despite this, it is astounding that biopharmaceutical stocks are cheaper than they have ever been in the past 20 years.

Given the fact that its collaboration with BioNTech made a central figure in the COVID-19 vaccine race, I think it’s best to put a spotlight on Pfizer today.

Pfizer was the first biopharmaceutical company to successfully market a COVID-19 vaccine, BNT162b2.

Recently, Pfizer received another good news. The FDA is no longer demanding that the company transport BNT162b2 at ultra-low temperatures.

When Pfizer revealed its strong results last year, the world was impressed and no one barely noticed the ultra-cold storage requirement that the achievement entailed.

But with competitors already gaining approvals as well, this particular requirement started to pose noticeable challenges to Pfizer’s vaccine supply chain and made it extremely challenging transporting the much-needed vaccines to remote areas.

These challenges highlight the significance of the recent FDA announcement regarding BNT162b2.

In terms of market share, Pfizer holds a significant advantage over the others.

As of the year-end of 2020, the company supplied 65 million doses to developed markets.

Meanwhile, the 2021 forecast for this product is at nearly 2 billion doses. This is estimated to rake in roughly $15 billion in revenue for Pfizer.

In comparison, Moderna’s advanced purchase deals are estimated to be worth $18 billion.

To sustain immunity, there’s the possibility that the vaccine would be needed annually.

This could lead to substantial demand for doses, with a two-dose vaccine like BNT162b2 projected to reach about 10 billion doses every year.

Realistically, the rising need for doses and the manufacturing requirements will obviously pressure profit margins.

However, if the vaccine does turn out to be an annual necessity, then it could become a valuable asset.

The entire COVID-19 market is estimated at $39 billion in 2021 and $23 billion in 2022.

Pfizer and even Moderna’s first mover advantage can easily help them dominate the market this year.

This means that the competition will heat up by 2022.

To ensure that it keeps the lead, Pfizer has commenced the Phase 1 trial for a COVID-19 pill.

Pfizer’s pill, dubbed PF-07321332, aims to inhibit the enzymes that cause the SARS-CoV-2 virus to replicate. The goal is to create an antiviral drug that works pretty much the same way as the one developed for HIV and Hepatitis C.

If the trials generate positive results, then PF-07321332 could be taken at the first sign of infection.

So far, lab results have shown the pill’s potent capacity to prevent the SARS-CoV-2 virus and other coronaviruses from replicating.

Pfizer isn’t the only one that came up with the idea of a COVID-19 pill. Merck (MRK), Eli Lilly (LLY), and Regeneron (REGN) have been conducting tests for their own version of the antiviral.

However, Pfizer is more than its COVID-19 programs.

In the past, investors wondered about the long-term growth potential of this company. Some questions are linked to its Upjohn unit, which included several products that lost patent exclusivity.

This segment clouded Pfizer’s pure play revenue and even its earnings growth. However, these questions were put to an end last year when Upjohn’s finally separated from Pfizer and formed a new company, Viatris (VTRS), with Mylan.

The effect of this move showed an amplified growth for Pfizer almost immediately.

In the fourth quarter alone of 2020, the company reported $11.68 billion in revenue, indicating a 12% increase year-over-year. If we exclude the sales from the COVID-19 vaccine, Pfizer’s revenue was still up by 8%.

Every key product segment in the company recorded revenue growth, which is remarkable considering the effects of the pandemic.

Revenue for its oncology sector went up 23% to reach $3 billion, with breast cancer treatment Ibrance leading the charge with an 11% boost to its sales to hit $1.4 billion.

To ensure that it corners the market, Pfizer also launched biosimilars Zirabev and Ruxience in the same quarter. Both generated $171 million in total.

Outside its COVID-19 program, other products in Pfizer’s vaccine segment significantly contributed to the 17% increase in revenue to reach $2 billion.

For example, the pneumonia vaccine Prevnar generated $1.8 billion thanks to the 10% boost in its revenue year-over-year.

As for Pfizer’s rare disease unit, revenue went up 24% to reach $865 million.

The segment leader so far is cardiomyopathy treatment Vyndagel, which achieved a jaw dropping 96% year-over-year boost in its revenue to generate $429 million. This product won’t face patent loss until 2026, so Pfizer still has a few more years to take advantage of it.

Pfizer’s revenues in 2020 were up 2% at $41.9 billion. Considering that it still managed to boost sales despite the pandemic, there’s a good chance that 2021 will be a better year for the company.

In fact, Pfizer estimates that it would reach nearly $60 billion in revenue, with an annualized EPS of roughly $3.15 in 2021.

Global sales in the biotechnology and healthcare industry are projected to be worth $1.2 trillion annually. This is a massive market that is all but guaranteed.

The S&P 500 trades at nearly 21.5x forward earnings, with pharmaceutical companies trading at only 13.2x. That’s a whopping 60% discount.

Considering that drug stocks have historically traded at roughly the same level as the S&P 500, the current situation still offers an unmistakable promise even if nothing else happens.

Continuous development in the sector not only advances our quality of life but also offers reasonable returns to investors.

 

pfizer

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-03-30 16:00:282021-04-03 23:48:48A Pure Play Stock Selling at a Bargain
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

March 18, 2021

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech & Healthcare Letter
March 18, 2021
Fiat Lux

FEATURED TRADE:

(A BLUE CHIP STOCK SELLING AT A DISCOUNT)
(LLY), (GILD), (REGN), (SNY), (AMGN), (TEVA), (NVO), (ABBV), (BMY)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-03-18 14:02:232021-03-18 15:18:47March 18, 2021
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

A Blue Chip Stock Selling at a Discount

Biotech Letter

It’s not unheard of in the biotechnology industry to watch the stock prices of small or even mid-cap drug developers rise and fall by 30% following trial results or new drug approval.

However, when the company is Eli Lilly (LLY), which holds a $179 billion market capitalization, then biotech investors need to pay attention.

After all, the only plausible conclusion to draw from this is that there have been some seismic advancements done by the company.

Two potentially breakthrough treatments are the culprit behind the volatility in Eli Lilly stock these days.

The first is Eli Lilly’s COVID-19 program, in which the company is looking into using Bamlanivimab (LY-CoV555) solo or combining it with Etesevimab (LY-CoV016).

What we know so far is that the combo drug can lower the risk of death and hospitalization among high-risk COVID-19 patients by as high as 87%.

In November 2020, the FDA granted Eli Lilly’s Bamlanivimab Emergency Use Authorization.

The solo treatment was also authorized for the same usage in Morocco, Europe, Canada, Rwanda, and some regions of the Middle East, where Eli Lilly is collaborating with the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation for distribution.

Last February 2021, its combo treatment received the same approval.

To date, Eli Lilly has shipped roughly 1 million doses of Bamlanivimab and is committed to supplying an additional 1 million this quarter.

To meet the demand for the Bamlanivimab-Etesevimab combo, Eli Lilly will be working with pharmaceutical titan Amgen (AMGN).

In the company’s 2020 earnings report, Eli Lilly disclosed that Bamlanivimab accounted for $871 million of their sales.

For 2021, the market for COVID-19 treatments is valued at $27.25 billion.

Taking into consideration the competitors coming up with similar medications, such as Gilead Sciences (GILD), Regeneron (REGN), and Sanofi (SNY), the conservative estimate for the sales for Bamlanivimab alone is estimated to reach roughly $1 billion to $2 billion this year.

The second potential breakthrough that’s affecting Eli Lilly’s prices is its Alzheimer’s disease treatment, Donanemab.

Eli Lilly recently released positive data from the Phase 2 trial of Donanemab, with the treatment slowing down cognitive decline by 32% after 76 weeks.

In fact, a notable decline was already observed among the patients as early as 36 weeks.

This is an impressive result, and there’s talk that Eli Lilly’s plan of possible commercialization of Donanemab by 2024 could be fast-tracked to as early as the first half of 2023.

Interestingly, the positive news was met with negative reactions by the investors.

Eli Lilly fell by 9% following the Donanemab update, sending shares tumbling from $208.18 to $189.16.

This reaction effectively erased almost $20 billion in the company’s market value.

The negative reaction to Eli Lilly’s news may be stemming from the pending application of Biogen’s (BIIB) own Alzheimer’s drug, Aducanumab, which is expected to receive word from the FDA by June.

Investors anticipate that Aducanumab’s performance would be indicative of Donanemab’s future.

Looking at the trial results though, I can say that this shouldn’t be the case. Since the beginning, Donanemab has outperformed Aducanumab in practically every aspect.

Either way, what cannot be denied here is the market opportunity.

When the market thought that Aducanumab would get FDA approval in November 2020, the share price of Biogen saw a whopping 44% jump from $246 to $354 overnight.

Meanwhile, Donanemab’s potential sales volumes have been estimated to reach over $10 billion annually. 

Other than Donanemab, Eli Lilly has been developing more contenders to boost its neuroscience division. Right now, this segment generates 6.3% of the company’s total revenues.

One of the promising drugs in the portfolio is migraine treatment Emgality, which recorded a 123% increase in sales last year to hit $362 million.

Thus far, Emgality holds at least 31% of the migraine market and still has room for growth and expansion.

This is a remarkable performance considering that its competitors include Amgen’s Aimovig and Teva’s (TEVA) Ajovy.

Another solid earner is antidepressant treatment Cymbalta, which generated over $768 million in sales last year, up by 5% year-on-year.

Outside its neuroscience efforts, one of Eli Lilly’s strongest growth drivers is its diabetes franchise.

This segment accounts for roughly 47% of its revenues and is led by Trulicity with $5 billion in sales last year, up 23% year-over-year.

Eli Lilly’s diabetes program has grown so much in the past years that it now aggressively competes against Novo Nordisk (NVO), a monopoly-like presence in this space.

In fact, Trulicity has been able to successfully protect its own market share against Novo’s heavily marketed Rybelsus, with data showing that users of Eli Lilly’s diabetes injectable recorded 60% adherence levels compared to Novo’s 43%.

In terms of expansion, Eli Lilly also won a new approval for Trulicity to be used to treat cardiovascular conditions as well.

This additional indication puts Trulicity’s peak sales at roughly $7.43 billion.

In an effort to corner the diabetes market, Eli Lilly also developed Tirzepatide.

Basically, this treatment is a long-term hedge against the pending loss of Trulicity’s patent exclusivity by 2027.

However, Tirzepatide is projected to surpass its predecessor in sales and reach double-digit billions.

Overall, Eli Lilly has positioned itself well in the diabetes market.

While it’s engaged in an aggressive battle for dominance against Novo Nordisk, there’s a lot of room for both.

The diabetes treatment segment is a continuously expanding market, with its value doubling in size from 2015 to 2015. Within this period, this market is projected to grow from $31 billion to $59 billion.

Aside from its diabetes and neuroscience programs, Eli Lilly has also been active in developing its immunology and oncology segments.

This is an ambitious plan, considering that practically all pharmaceutical companies are working on treatments in this space.

After all, the auto-immune market is massive as it’s worth well over $50 billion.

One of the bestsellers in Eli Lilly’s portfolio is plaque psoriasis treatment Taltz, which grew its sales by 31% year-over-year to reach $1.8 billion last year.

Some of the major competitors in this space are Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY) with Zeposia, Sanofi’s Dupixent, and AbbVie’s (ABBV) Skyrizi.

What could be promising news for Eli Lilly is the fact that AbbVie’s ultra-bestseller Humira is going off-patent by 2023.

This means that it could open up the market to allow both Taltz and Olumiant, another top-selling Eli Lilly treatment, to grab part of the lucrative market share.

Ultimately, Eli Lilly is a business that offers a promising commercialized portfolio and a remarkable near-term pipeline, which can reasonably support an annual revenue growth rate of roughly 10% even if we don’t factor in the effects of Donanemab.

Apart from the potential aftermath of the pending Biogen news, the fall in Eli Lilly’s shares could also be attributed to the extremely high expectation of investors.

Alzheimer’s has no approved cure, and there are only a handful of treatments developed from this neurological disease—none of which are even marginally effective.

It’s normal for investors to be wary of positive data results since they’ve been down this road before and are merely attempting to temper their excitement.

Amid the selloff, I believe that Donanemab is far from a lost cause. More importantly, I think the drop in Eli Lilly’s share price presents a rare buying opportunity for investors.

Therefore, I advise buying the dip.

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-03-18 14:00:452021-03-23 18:32:20A Blue Chip Stock Selling at a Discount
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

March 9, 2021

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech & Healthcare Letter
March 9, 2021
Fiat Lux

FEATURED TRADE:

(AN MRNA STOCK TO CONSIDER)
(BNTX), (MRNA), (PFE), (NVS), (SNY), (AZN), (JNJ), (NVAX), (MRK), (BMY), (REGN), (DNA), (CVAC), (FB), (TSLA), (GOOG)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-03-09 11:02:522021-03-09 17:32:46March 9, 2021
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

How to Handle the Friday, January 15 Options Expiration

Diary, Newsletter

Followers of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader Alert Service have the good fortune to own TEN deep in-the-money options positions, all of which are profitable.  Six of these expire in six trading days on Friday, January 15, and I just want to explain to the newbies how to best maximize their profits.

These involve the following:

(TLT) 1/$164-$167 put spread

(TSLA) 1/$430-$460 call spread

(TSLA) 1/$570-$600 call spread

(WPM) 1/$39-$41 call spread

(GOLD) 1/$21-$23 call spread

(TSLA) 1/$830-$860 put spread

Provided that we don’t have a huge selloff in gold, silver, or Tesla, or monster rallies in bonds or Tesla, all six of these positions will expire at their maximum profit point.

So far, so good.

The storming of Capital hill on Wednesday worked to the benefit of every one of these positions. Gold and silver took off, bonds stabilized, and Tesla ceased its heroic rally.

I’ll do the math for you on our oldest and least liquid position, the Tesla January 15 $430-$460 call spread, which I initiated on December 10, 2020 and will definitely run into expiration. At the Wednesday high, it was an astonishing $315, or 68.47%, in-the-money.

This is the biggest one-month stock gain I have seen in one of my positions in the 13-year history of this service.

Your profit can be calculated as follows:

Profit: $30.00 expiration value - $25.00 cost = $5.00 net profit

(4 contracts X 100 contracts per option X $5.00 profit per options)

= $2,000 or 20% in 18 trading days.

Many of you have already emailed me asking what to do with these winning positions.

The answer is very simple. You take your left hand, grab your right wrist, pull it behind your neck, and pat yourself on the back for a job well done.

You don’t have to do anything.

Your broker (are they still called that?) will automatically use your long position to cover your short position, canceling out the total holdings.

The entire profit will be credited to your account on Monday morning January 18 and the margin freed up.

Some firms charge you a modest $10 or $15 fee for performing this service.

If you don’t see the cash show up in your account on Monday, get on the blower immediately and find it.

Although the expiration process is now supposed to be fully automated, occasionally machines do make mistakes. Better to sort out any confusion before losses ensue.

If you want to wimp out and close the position before the expiration, it may be expensive to do so. You can probably unload them pennies below their maximum expiration value.

Keep in mind that the liquidity in the options market understandably disappears, and the spreads substantially widen, when a security has only hours, or minutes until expiration on Friday January 15. So, if you plan to exit, do so well before the final expiration at the Friday market close.

This is known in the trade as the “expiration risk.”

If for some reason your short position in your spread gets “called away,” don’t worry. Just call your broker and instruct them to exercise your long option position to cover your short option position. That gets you out of your position a few days early at your maximum profit point.

If your broker tells you to sell your remaining long and cover your short separately in the market, don’t. That makes money for your broker, but not you. Do what I say, and then fire your broker and close your account because they are giving you terrible advice. I’ve seen this happen many times among my followers.

One way or the other, I’m sure you’ll do OK, as long as I am looking over your shoulder, as I will be, always. Think of me as your trading guardian angel.

I am going to hang back and wait for good entry points before jumping back in. It’s all about keeping that “Buy low, sell high” thing going.

I’m looking to cherry-pick my new positions going into the next month end.

Take your winnings and go out and buy yourself a well-earned dinner. Just make sure it’s take-out. I want you to stick around.

Well done, and on to the next trade

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/john-thomas-pilot.png 686 586 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-01-07 09:02:272021-01-07 10:12:20How to Handle the Friday, January 15 Options Expiration
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

November 24, 2020

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech & Healthcare Letter
November 24, 2020
Fiat Lux

FEATURED TRADE:

(WATCH OUT FOR BIONTECH’S HOCKEY STICK GROWTH)
(BNTX), (PFE), (AZN), (MRNA), (JNJ), (REGN), (DNA)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-11-24 13:02:492020-11-24 14:23:35November 24, 2020
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Watch Out for BioNTech's Hockey Stick Growth

Biotech Letter

BioNTech (BNTX) is the perfect example of an old saying, “Timing is everything.”

Coming from its humble IPO in 2019, this biotechnology company now sports a $25 billion market capitalization—a number that could still go up once its COVID-19 vaccine candidate with Pfizer (PFE) receives US and EU nods.

What we know so far is that their COVID-19 vaccine candidate could secure an emergency approval as early as December and start delivery before Christmas.

Although it’s still not available in the market, the effect of its COVID-19 vaccine candidate, called  BNT162, has made itself known in BioNTech’s earnings report.

The company reported roughly $80 million in revenue in the third quarter of 2020 alone—an impressive 135% jump from its previous performance in the same period last year.

To date, BioNTech and Pfizer are estimated to supply roughly 1.3 billion doses by the end of 2021.

Additional orders could still come in though, which is why the two companies have been busy scaling their manufacturing capacities.

If all goes according to plan, then the expected returns from their COVID-19 vaccine sales could come sooner than initially thought.

Recent reports reveal that Moderna’s (MRNA) COVID-19 vaccine candidate also showed over 90% efficacy. Even AstraZeneca’s (AZN) candidate with Oxford University disclosed promising results.

However, BioNTech and Pfizer’s candidate has a couple of competitive advantages.

The first would be its 95% efficacy, which gives the two companies the commanding position and effectively relegates the rest as second grade options.

Their candidate showed no safety concerns—a major issue for AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson’s (JNJ) candidates.

Third, the partners have been able to reassure their capability to manufacture at scale—an issue that would pose problems for other developers like Moderna.

In fact, BioNTech acquired a vaccine manufacturing plan in Germany just last September to meet the demand for 250 million doses by mid-2021 and another 80 million doses monthly thereafter.

In terms of manufacturing capacities, the two potential competitors of BioNTech and Pfizer here are AstraZeneca and JNJ. Both have already paused their trials and are now falling behind in terms of the rigid schedule.

As for the other COVID-19 vaccine leader, Moderna has yet to prove that it can manufacture at scale.

BioNTech and Pfizer even shut down the red herring about the cooling and storage of their COVID-19 vaccine candidate. The two companies released their plans for distribution and detailed a strategy that’s not only feasible but also cheap.

Since the vaccine requires extremely low temperatures to maintain its efficacy, Pfizer and BioNTech will ship them from centralized warehouses via a thermal shipper.

This will ensure that the temperature is maintained for 10 days without the need to re-ice and up to 15 days with re-icing. A GPS will be used to monitor and track the integrity of the vaccine in real-time.

The impact of its sales from the COVID-19 vaccine would dwarf practically everything else in BioNTech’s financial statements.

However, this does not mean the biotechnology company will revert to its 2019 status once the peak of its COVID-19 vaccinations is over.

Instead, BioNTech will be in possession of an extremely valuable IP of an effective and working mRNA vaccine platform.

This will allow the company to apply the technology to other infectious diseases.

If it continues with its partnership with Pfizer, it can even develop vaccines for farm animals and domestic pets and market those under the bigger company’s animal healthcare spinoff, Zoetis (ZTS).

Here’s a bit of background on BioNTech.

Founded in 2008, BioNTech was created to develop hyper-personalized medicine and treatments.

At the center of its mission, the company’s basic idea is that the tumor found in each cancer patient is one of a kind.

To help find a cure or treatment, the company analyzes the tumor for its genetic signature.

Once they identify this unique element, they would develop gene-based therapies to limit the spread or even put an end to that particular occurrence of cancer.

If you think this is a lofty goal for a small biotechnology company, then you’d be surprised to find out that BioNTech proved their theories in 2017.

At the time, all 13 patients who underwent the analysis and received injections for genetically personalized therapies for their advanced-stage cancers.

Essentially, the cancer patients developed immunity from their own cancer. 

Apart from COVID-19 and cancer treatments, BioNTech is also working on treatments for tuberculosis, HIV, and several rare diseases.

Outside its partnership with Pfizer, it has been partnering with Regeneron (REGN) and Genentech (DNA).

Biotechnology stocks have the tendency to move when the companies release updates about their treatments under development.

For momentum investors, it’s crucial to be prepared for whatever happens in the aftermath.

Looking at the developments and other updates, BioNTech’s COVID-19 vaccine work could send this stock to the moon.

After all, its partnership with Pfizer resulted in what could be the most effective and efficient candidate to battle the pandemic.

This means that the demand for the vaccine would exponentially exceed the supply in the near future, with the majority of what can be manufactured getting pre-sold or call option reserved.

To date, BioNTech stock is trading at roughly $104 per share. However, I estimate that it could reach a target price of $600 by the first quarter of 2021.

biotech

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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

October 29, 2020

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech & Healthcare Letter
October 29, 2020
Fiat Lux

FEATURED TRADE:

ROCHE ENTERS COVID-19 FIGHT IN STYLE
(RHHBY), (REGN), (GILD), (MRK), (ALNY), (IONS)

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