(SPY) Archives

August 22 Biweekly Strategy Webinar Q&A

Below please find subscribers’ Q&A for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader August 22 Global Strategy Webinar with my guest and co-host Bill Davis of the Mad Day Trader.

As usual, every asset class long and short was covered. You are certainly an inquisitive lot, and keep those questions coming!

Q: How do you think the trade talks will resolve?

A: There will be no resolution this next round of trade talks. China has sent only their most hawkish negotiators who believe that China has done nothing wrong, so don’t expect results any time soon.

Also, because of the arrests in Washington, China is more inclined to just wait out Donald Trump, whether that’s 6 months or 6 1/2 years. They believe they have the upper hand now, sensing weakness in Washington, and in any case, many of the American requests are ridiculous.

Trade talks will likely overhang the market for the rest of this year and you don’t want to go running back into those China Tech plays, like Alibaba (BABA) and Baidu (BIDU) too soon. However, they are offering fantastic value at these levels.

Q: Will the Washington political storm bring down the market?

A: No, it won’t. Even in the case of impeachment, all that will happen is the market will stall and go sideways for a while until it’s over. The market went straight up during the Clinton impeachment, but that was during the tail end of the Dotcom Boom.

Q: Is Alibaba oversold here at 177?

A: Absolutely, it is a great buy. There is a double in this stock over the long term. But, be prepared for more volatility until the trade wars end, especially with China, which could be quite some time.

Q: What would you do with the Volatility Index (VIX) now?

A: Buy at 11 and buy more at 10. It’s a great hedge against your existing long portfolio. It’s at $12 right now.

Q: Are the emerging markets (EEM) a place to be again right now or do you see more carnage?

A: I see more carnage. As long as the dollar is strong, U.S. interest rates are rising, and we have trade wars, the worst victims of all of that are emerging markets as you can see in the charts. Anything emerging market, whether you’re looking at the stocks, bonds or currency, has been a disaster.

Q: Is it time to go short or neutral in the S&P 500 (SPY)?

A: Keep a minimal long just so you have some participation if the slow-motion melt-up continues, but that is it. I’m keeping risks to a minimum now. I only really have one position to prove that I’m not dead or retired. If it were up to me I’d be 100% cash right now.

Q: Would you buy Bitcoin here around $6,500?

A: No, I would not. There still is a 50/50 chance that Bitcoin goes to zero. It’s looking more and more like a Ponzi scheme every day. If we do break the $6,000 level again, look for $4,000 very quickly. Overall, there are too many better fish to fry.

Q: Is it time to buy gold (GLD) and gold miners (GDX)?

A: No, as long as the U.S. is raising interest rates, you don’t want to go anywhere near the precious metals. No yield plays do well in the current environment, and gold is part of that.

Q: What do you think about Lithium?

A: Lithium has been dragged down all year, just like the rest of the commodities. You would think that with rising electric car production around the world, and with Tesla building a second Gigafactory in Nevada, there would be a high demand for Lithium.

But, it turns out Lithium is not that rare; it’s actually one of the most common elements in the world. What is rare is cheap labor and the lack of environmental controls in the processing.

However, it’s not a terrible idea to buy a position in Sociedad Química y Minera (SQM), the major Chilean Lithium producer, but only if you have a nice long-term view, like well into next year. (SQM) was an old favorite of mine during the last commodity boom, when we caught a few doubles. (Check our research data base).

Q: How can the U.S. debt be resolved? Or can we continue on indefinitely with this level of debt?

A: Actually, we can go on indefinitely with this level of debt; what we can’t do is keep adding a trillion dollars a year, which the current federal budget is guaranteed to deliver. At some point the government will crowd out private borrowers, including you and me, out of the market, which will eventually cause the next recession.

Q: Time to rotate out of stocks?

A: Not yet; all we have to do is rotate out of one kind of stock into another, i.e. out of technology and into consumer staple and value stocks. We will still get that performance, but remember we are 9.5 years into what is probably a 10-year bull market.

So, keep the positions small, rotate when the sector changes, and you’ll still make money. But, let's face it the S&P 500 isn’t 600 anymore, it’s 2,800 and the pickings are going to get a lot slimmer from here on out. Watch the movie but stay close to the exit to escape the coming flash fire.

Q: What kind of time frame does Amazon (AMZN) double?

A: The only question is whether it happens now or on the other side of the next recession. We can assume five years for sure.

Q: More upside to Home Depot (HD)?

A: Absolutely, yes. The high home prices lead to increases in home remodeling, and now that Orchard Hardware has gone out of business, all that business has gone to Home Depot. Home Depot just went over $204 a couple days ago.

Q: Do you still like India (PIN)?

A: If you want to pick an emerging market to enter, that’s the one. It’s a Hedge Fund favorite and has the largest potential for growth.

Q: What about oil stocks (USO)?

A: You don’t want to touch them at all; they look terrible. Wait for Texas tea to fall to $60 at the very least.

Q: What would you do with Netflix (NFLX)?

A: I would probably start scaling into buy right here. If you held a gun to my head, the one trade I would do now would be a deep in the money call spread in Netflix, now that they’ve had their $100 drop. And I can’t wait to see how the final season of House of Cards ends!

Q: If yields are going up, why are utilities doing so well?

A: Yields are going down right now, for the short term. We’ve backed off from 3.05% all the way to 2.81%; that’s why you’re getting this rally in the yield plays, but I think it will be a very short-lived event.

Q: Do you see retail stocks remaining strong from now through Christmas?

A: I don’t see this as part of the Christmas move going on right now; I think it’s a rotation into laggard plays, and it’s also very stock specific. Stocks like Nordstrom (JWN) and Target (TGT) are doing well, for instance, while others are getting slaughtered. I would be careful with which stocks you get into.

Good luck and good trading
John Thomas
CEO & Publisher
Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader

August 10, 2018

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
August 10, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(AUGUST 8 BIWEEKLY STRATEGY WEBINAR Q&A),
(SPY), (TBT), (PIN), (ISRG), (EDIT), (MU), (LRCX), (NVDA),
(FXE), (FXA), (FXY), (BOTZ), (VALE), (TSLA), (AMZN),
(THE DEATH OF THE CAR),
(GM), (F), (TSLA), (GOOG), (AAPL)

August 8 Biweekly Strategy Webinar Q&A

Diary, Newsletter

Below please find subscribers' Q&A for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader August 8 Global Strategy Webinar with my guest and co-host Bill Davis of the Mad Day Trader.

As usual, every asset class long and short was covered. You are certainly an inquisitive lot, and keep those questions coming!

Q: What should I do about my (SPY) $290-295 put spread?

A: That is fairly close to the money, so it is a high-risk trade. If you feel like carrying a lot of risk, keep it. If you want to sleep better at night, I would get out on the next dip. The market has 100 reasons to go down and two to go up, the possible end of trade wars and continuing excess global liquidity, and the market is focusing on the two for now.

Q: What are your thoughts on the ProShares Ultra Short Treasury Bond Fund (TBT)?

A: Short term, it's a sell. Long term it's a buy. It's possible we could get a breakout in the bond market here, at the 3% yield level. If that happens, you could get another five points quickly in the TBT. J.P. Morgan's Jamie Diamond thinks we could hit a 5% yield in a year. I think that's high but we are definitely headed in that direction.

Q: What are your thoughts on the India ETF (PIN)?

A: It goes higher. It's been the best-performing emerging market, and a major hedge fund long for the last five years. The basic story is that India is the next China. Indicia is the next big infrastructure build-out. Once India gets regulatory issues out of the way, look for more continued performance.

Q: What are your thoughts on Intuitive Surgical (ISRG)?

A: Intuitive is a kind of microcosm in the market right now. It's trading well above a significant support level, which happens to be $508. I don't typically like Intuitive Surgical stock because the options are very inefficient, and therefore very pricey. I think, at this point, there is a bigger possibility of it breaking down than continuing to head higher. In other words, it's overbought. Buy long term, the sector has a giant tailwind behind it with 80 million retiring baby boomers.

Q: What are your thoughts on the entire chip sector, including Micron (MU), Lam Research (LRCX) and NVIDIA (NVDA)?

A: NVIDIA is the top of the value chain in the entire sector, and it looks like it wants to break to a new high. My target is $300 by the end of the year, from the current $240s. I think the same will happen with Lam Research (LRCX), which just had a massive rally. All three of these have major China businesses; China buys 80% of its chips from the U.S. You can do these in order in the value chain; the lowest value-added company is Micron, followed by Lam Research, followed by NVIDIA, and the performance reflects all of that. So, I think until we get out of the trade wars, Micron will be mired down here. Once it ends, look for it to get a very sharp upside move. Lam is already starting to make its move and so is NVIDIA. Long term, Lam and NVIDIA have doubles in them, so it's not a bad place to buy right here.

Q: You once recommended the Global X Robotics & Artificial Intelligence Thematic ETF (BOTZ) which is now down 10%, one of your few misses. Keep or sell?

A: Keep. It's had the same correction as the rest of Technology. All corrections in Technology are short term in nature--the long-term bull story is still there. (BOTZ) is a huge play on artificial intelligence and automation, so that is going to be with us for a long time, it's just enduring a temporary short-term correction right now, and I would keep it.

Q: What do you have to say about the CRISPR stocks like Editas Medicine Inc. (EDIT)?

A: The whole sector got slammed by a single report that said CRISPR causes cancer, which is complete nonsense. So, I would use this sell-off to increase your current positions. I certainly wouldn't be selling down here.

Q: What could soften the strong dollar?

A: Only one thing: a recession in the U.S. and an end to the interest-raising cycle, which is at least a year off, maybe two. Keep buying the U.S. dollar and selling the currencies (FXE), (FXY), (FXA) until then.

Q: What are your thoughts on Baidu and Alibaba?

A: I thought China tech would get dragged down by the trade wars, but they behaved just as well as our tech companies, so I'd be buying them on dips here. Again, if we do win the trade wars, these Chinese tech companies could rocket. The fundamental stories for all of them is fantastic anyway, so it's a good long-term hold.

Q: Have you looked at Companhia Vale do Rio Doce (VALE)? (A major iron ore producer)

A: No, I've kind of ignored commodities all this year, because it's such a terrible place to be. If we had a red-hot economy, globally you would want to own commodities, but as long as the recovery now is limited to only the U.S., it's not enough to keep the commodity space going. So, I would take your profits up here.

Q: With Tesla (TSLA) up $100 in two weeks should I sell?

A: Absolute. If the $420 buyout goes through you have $40 of upside. If it doesn't, you have $140 of downside. It's a risk/reward that drives like a Ford Pinto.

Q: How long will it take global QE (quantitative easing) to unwind?

A: At least 10 years. While we ended our QE four years ago, Europe and Japan are still continuing theirs. That's why stocks keep going up and bonds won't go down. There is too much cash in the world to sell anything.

Q: Apple (AAPL)won the race to be the first $1 trillion company. Who will win the race to be the first $2 trillion company?

A: No doubt it is will be Amazon (AMZN). It has a half dozen major sectors that are growing gangbusters, like Amazon Web Services. Food and health care are big targets going forward. They could also buy one of the big ticket selling companies to get into that business, like Ticketmaster.

Good Luck and Good trading
John Thomas
CEO & Publisher
The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader

July 27, 2018

Diary, Newsletter

Global Market Comments
July 27, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(LAST CHANCE TO ATTEND THE FRIDAY, AUGUST 3, 2018,
AMSTERDAM, THE NETHERLANDS GLOBAL STRATEGY DINNER),
(STOCKS TO BUY ON THE OUTBREAK OF TRADE PEACE),
(QQQ), (SPY), (SOYB), (CORN), (WEAT), (CAT),
(DE), (BA), (QCOM), (MU), (LRCX), (CRUS),
(ORIENT EXPRESS PART II, or REPORT FROM VENICE)

Stocks to Buy on the Outbreak of Trade Peace

Diary, Newsletter, Research

So, how will the trade war end? It could be the crucial trading call of 2018.

"That which can't continue, won't," I paraphrase the noted economist Herbert Stein. I think that logic neatly applies to our global trade wars today.

In 1970, some 25% of world GDP was accounted for by international trade. Today it is 52%. Germany has been the powerhouse, with trade growing from 25% to 80%, largely through exploding auto exports. Trade growth in the U.K. has been pitiful as the old colonial ties loosened, improving only from 40% of GDP to 52%.

In the U.S., trade has grown from 10% to 25% of GDP during this time. It is far lower than the rest of the G7 nations because of the massive size of its domestic economy.

Still, placing restraints on 25% of U.S. GDP, or about $5 trillion, is quite a big hit. Think an imminent recession, quite possible a severe one. The $13 billion in subsidies offered the agriculture sector is but a drop in the bucket. It would be like killing off the goose that laid the golden egg.

Trump has a weak hand, which is growing weaker by the day. It is just a matter of time before he folds. Not to do so would entirely wipe out the benefits of the December tax package, yet still leave the U.S. government with $2 trillion in new debt. It is a perfect money destruction machine.

My bet is that Trump will claim victory at some point soon, regardless of what transpires on the negotiation front. Take the trade war away, and stocks will immediately jump 10%. That's what the stock market thinks, with NASDAQ (QQQ) at an all-time high, and the S&P 500 (SPY) just short of one. Stocks are trading over the medium term as if Donald Trump doesn't exist.

Which stocks should you buy when trade peace breaks out? Buy those that have suffered the most. The ags have to be at the top of your list, such as Soybeans (SOYB), Corn (CORN), and Wheat (WEAT), the worst hit. The old industrials such as Caterpillar (CAT), John Deere (DE), and Boeing (BA) also have to be a priority.

In the technology area you have to rotate out of the FANGs and into chip stocks, the worst performers of the sector this year. Perhaps this is what the market is shouting at us with the horrific one-day decline in Facebook (FB) yesterday. China relies on the U.S. for 80% of its chips and all of its high-end graphics cards.

China's canceling of the QUALCOM (QCOM) takeover of its NXP Semiconductors shows to what extent it is willing to retaliate in the tech area. Chip stocks to buy for the rebound should include Micron Technology (MU), Cirrus Logic (CRUS), and Lam Research (LRCX).

Even if the trade war ends tomorrow, business conditions will never be the same. Confidence in American reliability will never completely recover. Sure, Trump will be gone in 2 1/2 years. But what if he is replaced by someone worse? Trading with the United States now incurs a level of political risk not seen since the War of 1812, when Washington burned.

But no trade war is certainly better than a trade war if you are a trader or investor.

Telling the Captain How to Steer the Ship

July 23, 2018

Diary, Newsletter

Global Market Comments
July 23, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(FRIDAY, AUGUST 3, 2018, AMSTERDAM, THE NETHERLANDS
GLOBAL STRATEGY DINNER),
(THE MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD,
or IT'S SUDDENLY BECOME CRYSTAL CLEAR),
(SPY), (TLT), (QQQ),
(AMZN), (MSFT), (MU), (LRCX),
(REPORT FROM THE ORIENT EXPRESS)

The Market Outlook for the Week Ahead, or It's Suddenly Become Crystal Clear

Diary, Newsletter, Research

Maybe it's the calming influence of the sound of North Atlantic waves crashing against the hull outside my cabin door for a week. Maybe it was the absence of an Internet connection for seven days, which unplugged me from the 24/7 onslaught of confusing noise.

But suddenly, the outlook for financial markets for the rest of 2018 has suddenly become crystal clear.

I'll give you the one-liner: Nothing has changed.

Some nine years and four months into this bull market, and the sole consideration in share pricing is earnings. Everything else is a waste of time. That includes the Greece crisis, the European debt crisis that drove MF Global under, two presidential elections, the recent trade wars, even the daily disasters coming out of the White House.

Keep your eye focused on earnings and everything else will fade away into irrelevance. It that's simple.

As I predicted, the markets are stair-stepping their way northward ahead of each round of quarterly earnings reports.

And now that we know what to look at, the future looks pretty good.

The earnings story, led by big tech, is alive and well. After a torrid Q1, which saw corporate earnings grow by a heart palpitating 26%, we are looking for a robust 20% for Q2, 23% in Q3, and another 20% in Q4.

The sushi hits the fan when Q1 2019 earnings grow by a mere 5% YOY as the major elixir of tax cuts wear off, leaving us all with giant hangovers.

Amazon (AMZN), Netflix (NFLX), and Microsoft (MSFT), all Mad Hedge recommendations over the past year, account for 70% of the total market gains this year.

Look at the table below and you see there has only been ONE trade this year and that has been to buy technology stocks. Everything else, such as oil, the S&P 500 (SPY), the U.S. dollar (UUP) has been an also-ran, or an absolute disaster. And we nailed it. Some 80% of our Trade Alerts this year have been to buy technology stocks.

The gasoline poured on the fire by the huge corporate tax cuts are only now being felt by the real economy. Q2 GDP growth could run as hot as 4%. But there is a sneaking suspicion in the hedge fund industry that these represent peak earnings for the entire economic cycle.

Corporate stock buybacks hit a new all-time high in Q2, as companies repatriate cash hoards from abroad at extremely preferential tax rates to buy back their own shares.

Trade wars are certainly a worry. But retaliation is directed only at Trump supporting red states, which accounts for only a tiny share of U.S. corporate profits. Technology stocks, which account for half of all American profits, have largely been immune, except for the chip sector (MU), (LRCX), which has its own cyclical problems.

Yes, we know this will all end in tears. The yield curve will invert in a year, taking short-term interest rates higher than long-term ones, triggering a recession and a bear market. But the final year of a bull market is often the most profitable as prices go ballistic. You would be a fool to stay scared out of stocks by headline risk and an uncertain Twitter feed.

Yes, early leading indicators of a coming recession are popping up everywhere now. A stunning 12.3% drop in June Housing Starts has to be at the top of anyone's worry list, as rising home mortgage rates and disappearing tax deductions take their pound of flesh. It was the worst report in nine months.

The trade wars promise to leave the Detroit auto industry in substantially reduced form, or at least, the stock market believes so. And a 10-year U.S. treasury bond yield that has been absolutely nailed in a 2.80% to 2.90% range for three months is another classic marketing topping indicator.

I'll let you know when it is time to pull up stakes and head for higher ground. Just keep reading the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader.

As I have been at sea and out of the markets, my 2018 year-to-date performance remains unchanged at an eye-popping 24.82%, and my 8 1/2-year return sits at 301.29%. The Averaged Annualized Return stands at 35.10%. The more narrowly focused Mad Hedge Technology Fund Trade Alert performance is annualizing now at an impressive 38.69%.

This coming week will be a very boring week on the data front.

On Monday, July 23, there will be nothing of note to report.

On Tuesday, July 24 at 8:30 AM EST, the May Consumer Price Index is released, the most important indicator of inflation.

On Wednesday, July 25 at 7:00 AM, the MBA Mortgage Applications come out. At 2:00 PM EST the Fed is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points. At 2:30 Fed governor Jerome Powell holds a press conference.

Thursday, July 26, leads with the Weekly Jobless Claims at 8:30 AM EST, which saw a fall of 13,000 last week to 222,000. Also announced are May Retail Sales.

On Friday, July 27 at 9:15 AM EST we get May Industrial Production. Then the Baker Hughes Rig Count is announced at 1:00 PM EST.

As for me, I am going to attempt to think of more great thoughts this afternoon while hiking up to the Hornli Hut at 11,000 feet on the edge of the Matterhorn, a climb of about 5,000 feet out the front door of my chalet. I always seem to think of my best ideas while hiking uphill. The liter of Cardinal beer and a full plate of bratwurst with rosti potatoes will make it all worth it.

Good luck and good trading.

0

July 2, 2018

Diary, Newsletter

Global Market Comments
July 2, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(THE MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, OR THE FUTURE IS HAPPENING FAST),
(HOG), (TLT), (ROM), (MU), (NVDA), (LRCX),
(SPY), (AMZN), (NFLX), (EEM), (UUP), (WBA),
(THE WORST TRADE IN HISTORY), (AAPL)

The Market Outlook for the Week Ahead, or The Future is Happening Fast

Diary, Newsletter, Research

I feel like I'm living life in fast forward these days.

First we got a slap across the face with a wet mackerel on Monday with a 328 plunge in the Dow Average on yet another trade war escalation.

Harley Davidson (HOG) said it was moving a factory out of the country to bypass new European duties imposed in response to ours. If Harley is doing this you can bet there are 10,000 other companies thinking about it.

And even though robust economic growth should assure us that we remain in a new bear market for bonds, traders think otherwise. A 10-year Treasury bond (TLT) yield at 2.81% says that we're already in the next recession, we just don't know it yet.

As always happens with the ebb and flow of the trade war, technology got hammered. My favorite early retirement vehicle, the ProShares Ultra Technology 2X ETF (ROM), plunged some 11.19% to an even $100. Chip stocks such as Micron Technology (MU) and Lam Research (LRCX) get particularly hurt as China buys 80% of their processors from the U.S.

In the meantime, Tesla (TSLA) continues its phoenixlike rise from the ashes yet again, burning the shorts for the umpteenth time. The shares are now taking another run at a new all-time high. You would think people would learn but they don't. Einstein's definition of insanity is repeating the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result.

While bearish analysts predicted the imminent demise of the company, I saw a steady stream of trucks delivering new Tesla 3s from the Fremont factory while driving back from Los Angeles last weekend. Nothing beats on-the-ground research.

I'm sorry, but there is definite disconnect from reality with this company. The most hated company in America has produced the fifth best performing stock in over the past eight years, up more than 2,000%. I guess that's what happens when you disrupt big oil, Detroit, the U.S. dealer network, and the entire advertising industry all at the same time.

Interestingly, we caught three of the five best performers early on, including Tesla, NVIDIA (NVDA), and Netflix (NFLX).

Emerging markets (EEM) continue their death spiral, pummeled by the twin threats of trade wars and a soaring dollar (UUP). Most big emerging companies have their debt in dollars.

Sometimes you have to forget what you know to make money, and that has certainly been the case for me with emerging countries, where I spent a large part of my life.

The future is happening fast. Amazon (AMZN) single-handedly demolished the drug sector when it announced its takeover of online pharmacy company PillPack. The traditional brick-and-mortar retail pharmacy sector lost $9 billion in market capitalization just on the announcement. Walgreens (WBA) alone dropped a gut churning 10%.

If anyone can slash America's bloated health care bill it is Jeff Bezos. Just ask any former bookseller or toy maker.

And for a final middle finger salute to investors, the president said he wants to withdraw from the World Trade Organization, which the U.S. itself created after WWII. That means the United Nations is next on the chopping block.

America is rapidly becoming rogue nation No. 1, the next failed state. And failed states don't have great stock markets. Just check out the Somalia Stock Exchange.

They net of all of this is that the rest of the global economy is rolling over like the Bismarck, while the U.S. remains a sole beacon of strength. That's not good when half of S&P 500 earnings come from abroad.

However, that strength is based on a temporary one-time-only stimulus from massive deficit spending and corporate tax cuts that runs out of juice next year.

So keep tap dancing on the edge of the Grand Canyon. We'll miss you when you're gone. And before you ask, the best hedge in this kind of market is cash, which has huge option value that almost no one recognizes.

Despite all the chaos, uncertainty, and massive headline risk, I managed to tiptoe between the raindrops, keeping the Mad Hedge Fund Trader Alert Service performance just short of a new all-time high.

I closed out the month of June at a healthy 4.45%, my 2018 year-to-date performance rose to 24.82% and my 8 1/2-year return catapulted to 301.29%. The Averaged Annualized Return stands at 35.10%. The more narrowly focused Mad Hedge Technology Fund Trade Alert performance is annualizing now at an impressive 38.69%.

This coming holiday shortened week will be all about the jobs, jobs, jobs. Also, the Fed will raise interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday to an overnight rate of 2.00%.

On Monday, July 2, at 9:45 AM, the May PMI Manufacturing Index is out.

On Tuesday, July 3, at 10:00 AM, the May Factory Orders are published.

On Wednesday, July 4, U.S. markets are closed for Independence Day. I will be watching the fireworks display over New York's Hudson River from the top of a Midtown Manhattan skyscraper.

Thursday, July 5, sees a huge bunching up of data thanks to the Fourth of July. It leads with the ADP Employment Report for private sector jobs at 8:15 AM EST. The Weekly Jobless Claims follow at 8:30 AM EST, which saw a rise of 9,000 last week to 227,000. Also announced is the all-important 25 basis point interest rate rise from the Federal Reserve and the FOMC Minutes at 2:00 PM, a reading of what was discussed at the last Fed meeting.

On Friday, July 6 at 8:30 AM EST, we get the June Nonfarm Payroll Report. Then the Baker Hughes Rig Count is announced at 1:00 PM EST. I will be sipping a glass of champagne as I board the Queen Mary 2 at the Brooklyn Cruise Terminal. I look forward to all those who signed up for my Seminar at Sea.

As for me, I will be hurriedly packing for the 2018 Mad Hedge European Tour.

Unfortunately, traveling in the grand style of the 19^th century Belle Epoque involves bringing 200 pounds of luggage.

Now where are those darn black dress socks? And why am I missing a stud for my formal shirt?

Good Luck and Good Trading.

Time to Get Off the Merry-Go-Round

June 28, 2018

Diary, Newsletter

Global Market Comments
June 28, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(FRIDAY, AUGUST 3, 2018, AMSTERDAM, THE NETHERLANDS GLOBAL STRATEGY DINNER),
(TRAPPED IN PURGATORY),
(INDU), (SPY), (NASDAQ), (IWM), (TLT)

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