(TLT) Archives - Page 79 of 102 - Mad Hedge Fund Trader

The Market Outlook for the Week Ahead, or the Flip-Flopping Market

Easy come easy go.

Flip flop, flip flop.

Up until March 25, the bond market was discounting a 2019 recession. Bonds soared and stocks ground sideways. Exactly on that day, it pushed that recession out a year to 2020.

For that was the day that bond prices hit a multiyear peak and ten-year US Treasury yields (TLT) plunged all the way to 2.33%. Since then, interest rates have gone straight up, to 2.52% as of today.

There was also another interesting turn of the calendar. Markets now seem to be discounting economic activity a quarter ahead. So, the 20% nosedive we saw in stocks in Q4 anticipated a melting Q1 for the economy, which is thought to come in under 1%.

What happens next? A rebounding stock market in Q2 is expecting an economic bounce back in Q2 and Q3. What follows is anyone’s guess. Either continuing trade wars drag us back into a global recession and the stock market gives up the $4,500 points it just gained.

Or the wars end and we continue with a slow 2% GDP growth rate and the market grinds up slowly, maybe 5% a year.

Which leads us to the current quandary besieging strategists and economists around the world. Why is the government pressing for large interest rate cuts in the face of a growing economy and joblessness at record lows?

Of course, you have to ask the question of “what does the president know that we don’t.” The only conceivable reason for a sharp cut in interest rates during “the strongest economy in American history” is that the China trade talks are not going as well as advertised.

In fact, they might not be happening at all. Witness the ever-failing deadlines that always seem just beyond grasp. The proposed rate cut might be damage control in advance of failed trade talks that would certainly lead to a stock market crash, the only known measure of the administration view of the economy.

This also explains why politicization of the Fed is moving forward at an unprecedented rate. You can include political hack Stephen Moore who called for interest rate RISES during the entire eight years of the Obama administration but now wants them taken to zero in the face of an exploding national debt. There is also presidential candidate Herman Cain.

Both want the US to return to the gold standard which will almost certainly cause another Great Depression (that’s why we went off it last time, first in 1933 and finally in 1971). The problem with gold is that it’s finite. Economic growth would be tied to the amount of new gold mined every year where supplies have been FALLING for a decade.

The problem with politicization of the Fed is that once the genie is out of the bottle, it is out for good. BOTH parties will use interest rates to manipulate election outcomes in perpetuity. The independence of the Fed will be a thing of the past.

It has suddenly become a binary world. It either is, or it isn’t.

Positive China rumors lifted markets all week. Is this the upside breakout we’ve been looking for? Buy (FXI). While US markets are up 12% so far in 2019, Chinese ones have doubled that.

The Semiconductor Index, far and away the most China-sensitive sector of the market, hit a new all-time high. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), a Mad Hedge favorite, soared 9% in one day. It’s the future so why not? This is in the face of semiconductor demand and prices that are still collapsing. Buy dips.

Verizon beat the world with its surprise 5G rollout. It’s really all about bragging rights as it is available only in Chicago and Minneapolis and it will take time for 5G phones to get to the store. 5G iPhones are not expected until 2020. Still, I can’t WAIT to download the next Star Wars movie on my phone in only ten seconds.

US auto sales were terrible in Q1, the worst quarter in a decade, and continue to die a horrible death. General Motors (GM) suffered a 7% decline, with Silverado pickups off 16% and Suburban SUVs plunging 25%. Is this a prelude to the Q1 GDP number? Risk is rising. You have to wonder how much electric cars are eating their lunch, which now accounts for 4% of all new US sales.

Tesla (TSLA) disappointed big time, and the stock dove $30. Q1 deliveries came in at only 63,000 as I expected, compared to 90,700 in Q4, down 30.5%. I knew it would be a bad number but got squeezed out of my short the day before for a small loss. That’s show business. It’s all about damping the volatility of profits.

By cutting the electric car subsidy by half from $7,500 in 2019 and to zero in 2020, the administration seems intent on putting Tesla out of business at any cost. I hear the company has installed a revolving door at its Fremont headquarters to facilitate the daily visits by the Justice Department and the SEC. Did I mention that the oil industry sees Tesla as an existential threat?

The March Nonfarm Payroll Report rebounded to a healthy 196,000, just under the 110-month average. Weekly Jobless Claims dropped to New 49-Year Low. Whatever the problems the economy has, it’s not with job creation. But at what cost? Of course, we have to cut interest rates!

Boeing successfully tested new software, even taking the CEO for a ride. Maybe it will work this time. Airlines will love it. (BA) shares have already made back half their $80 losses since the recent crash and we caught the entire move. Buy (BA), (DAL), and (LUV).

The Mad Hedge Fund Trader hit a new all-time high briefly, up 15.46% year to date, and beating the pants off the Dow Average. Good thing I didn’t buy the bearish argument. There’s too much cash floating around the world. However, my downside hedges in Disney and Tesla cost me some money when I stopped out. I was late by a day.

We are taking profits on a six-month peak of 13 positions across the GTD and Tech Letter services and will wait for markets to tell us what to do next.

March turned positive in a final burst, up +1.78%. April is so far down -1.76%. My 2019 year to date return retreated to +13.69%, paring my trailing one-year return back up to +26.59%.

My nine and a half year return recovered to +313.83%, pennies short of a new all-time high. The average annualized return appreciated to +33.62%. I am now 80% in cash and 20% long, and my entire portfolio expires at the April 18 option expiration day in 9 trading days.

The Mad Hedge Technology Letter has gone ballistic, with an aggressive and unhedged 40% long, rising in value almost every day. It is maintaining positions in Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOGL), and PayPal (PYPL), and Amazon (AMZN), which are clearly going to new highs.

It’s going to be a dull week on the data front after last week’s fireworks.

On Monday, April 8 at 10:00 AM, February Factory Orders are released.

On Tuesday, April 9, 6:00 AM EST, the March NFIB Small Business Optimism Index is published.

On Wednesday, April 10 at 8:30 AM, we get the March Consumer Price Index.

On Thursday, April 11 at 8:30 AM EST, the Weekly Jobless Claims are announced. The March Producer Price Index is printed at the same time.

On Friday, April 12 at 10:00 AM, the April Consumer Sentiment Index is published.

The Baker-Hughes Rig Count follows at 1:00 PM.

As for me, I have two hours until the next snow storm pounds the High Sierras and closes Donner Pass. So I have to pack up and head back to San Francisco.

But I have to get a haircut first.

Incline Village, Nevada is the only place in the world where you can get a haircut from a 78-year-old retired Marine Master Sargent, Louie’s First Class Barbers. Civilian barbers can never grasp the concept of “high and tight with a shadow”, a cut only combat pilots are entitled to. He’ll regale me with stories of the Old Corps the whole time he is clipping away. I wouldn’t miss it for the world.

Good luck and good trading.

John Thomas
CEO & Publisher
The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader

March 25, 2019

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
March 25, 2019
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, OR GAME CHANGER)
(SPY), (TLT), (BIIB), (GOOG), (BA), (AAPL), (VIX), (USO)

The Market Outlook for the Week Ahead, or Game Changer

Diary, Newsletter

“When the facts change, I change. What do you do sir?” is a famous quote from the great economist John Maynard Keynes which I keep taped to the top of my monitor and constantly refer to.

The facts certainly changed on Wednesday when the Federal Reserve announced a change in the facts for the ages. Not only did governor Jay Powell announce that there would be no further rate increases in 2019.

He also indicated that the Fed would end its balance sheet unwind much earlier than expected. That has the effect of injecting $2.7 trillion into the US financial system and is the equivalent of two surprise interest rate CUTS.

The shocking move opens the way for stocks to trade up to new all-time high, with or without a China trade deal. Only the resumption of all-out hostilities, like the imposition of new across the board 25% tariffs, would pee on this parade.

As if we didn’t have enough to discount into the market in one shot. I held publication of this letter until Sunday night when we could learn more about the conclusion of the Mueller Report. There was no collusion with Russia and there will be no obstruction of justice prosecution.

However, the report did not end the president’s legal woes as it opened up a dozen new lines of investigation that will go on for years. The market could care less.

At the beginning of the year, I listed my “Five Surprises for 2019”. They were:

*The government shutdown ended and the Fed makes no move to raise interest rates

*The Chinese trade war ends

*The US makes no moves to impeach the Trump, focusing on domestic issues instead

*Britain votes to rejoin Europe

*The Mueller investigation concludes that he has an unpaid parking ticket in
NY from 1974 and that’s it

Notice that three of five predictions listed in red have already come true and the remaining two could transpire in coming weeks or months. All of the above are HUGELY risk positive and have triggered a MONSTER Global STOCK RALLY

Make hay while the sun shines because what always follows a higher high? A lower low.

The Fed eased again by cutting short their balance sheet unwind and ending quantitative tightening early. It amounts to two surprise interest rate cuts and is hugely “RISK ON”. New highs in stocks beckon. This is a game changer.

Bonds soared and rates crashed taking ten-year US Treasury bond yields down to an eye-popping 2.42%, still reacting to the Wednesday Fed comments. This is the final nail in the bond bear market as global quantitative easing comes back with a vengeance. German ten years bonds turn negative for the first time since 2016.

Interest rates inverted with short term rates higher than long term ones for the first time since 2008. That means a recession starts in a year and the stock market starts discounting that in three months.

Interest rates are now the big driver and everything else like the economy, valuations, and earnings are meaningless. Foreign interest rates falling faster than ours making US assets the most attractive in the world. BUY EVERYTHING, including stocks AND bonds.

Biogen blew up canceling their phase three trials for the Alzheimer drug Aducanumab. This is the worst-case scenario for a biotech drug and the stock is down a staggering 30%. Some $12 billion in prospective income is down the toilet. Avoid (BIIB) until the dust settles.

Europe fined Google $1.7 billion, in the third major penalty in three years. Clearly, there’s a “not invented here” mentality going on. It's sofa change to the giant search company. Buy (GOOG) on the dip.

More headaches for Boeing came down the pike. What can go wrong with a company that has grounded its largest selling product? Answer: they get criminally prosecuted. That was the unhappy news that hit Boeing (BA), knocking another $7 off the shares. It can’t get any worse than this, can it? Buy this dip in (BA).

Indonesia canceled a massive 737 order for 49 planes, slapping the stock on the face for $9. Apparently, they are unwilling to wait for the software fix. Buy the dip in (BA).

Oil prices hit a new four-month high at $58 a barrel as OPEC production caps work and Venezuela melts down. At a certain point, high energy prices are going to hurt the economy. Buy (USO) on dips.

The CBOE suspended bitcoin futures due to low volume and weak demand. It could be a fatal blow for the troubled cryptocurrency. Avoid bitcoin and all other cryptos. They’re a Ponzi scheme.

Equity weightings hit a 2 ½ year low as professional institutional money managers sell into the rally. They are overweight long defensive REITs and short European stocks. Watch out for the reversal.

December stock sellers are now March buyers. Expect this to lead to a higher high, then a lower low. Volatility is coiling. Don’t forget to sit down when the music stops playing.

Volatility hits a six-month low with the $12 handle revisited once again down from $30. (VIX) could get back to $9 before this is all over. Avoid (VIX) as the time decay will kill you.

Weak factory orders crush the market, down 450 points at the low. Terrible economic data is not new these days. But it ain’t over yet. Buy the dip.

The Mad Hedge Fund Trader was up slightly on the week. That’s fine, given the horrific 450 point meltdown the market suffered on Friday. We might have closed unchanged on the day but for rumors that the Mueller Report would be imminently released.

March is still negative, down -1.54%. My 2019 year to date return retreated to +11.74%, boosting my trailing one-year return back up to +24.86%.

My nine-year return recovered to +311.88%. The average annualized return appreciated to +33.71%. I am now 40% in cash, 40% long and 20% short, and my entire portfolio expires at the April 18 option expiration day in 14 trading days.

The Mad Hedge Technology Letter used the weakness to scale back into positions in Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOGL), and PayPal (PYPL), which are clearly going to new highs.

The coming week will be a big one for data from the real estate industry.

On Monday, March 25, Apple will take another great leap into services, probably announcing a new video streaming service to compete with Netflix and Walt Disney.

On Tuesday, March 26, 9:00 AM EST, we get a new Case Shiller CoreLogic National Home Price index which will almost certainly show a decline.

On Wednesday, March 27 at 8:30 AM, we get new Trade Deficit figures for January which have lately become a big deal.

Thursday, March 28 at 8:30 AM EST, the Weekly Jobless Claims are announced. We also then get another revision for Q4 GDP which will likely come down.

On Friday, March 29 at 10:00 AM, we get February New Home Sales. The Baker-Hughes Rig Count follows at 1:00 PM.

As for me, I’m praying that it stops snowing in the High Sierras long enough for me to get over Donner Pass and spend the spring at Lake Tahoe. We are at 50 feet for the season, the second highest on record.

Good luck and good trading.

John Thomas
CEO & Publisher
The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader

March 13, 2019

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
March 13, 2019
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(WHY BOND YIELDS ARE GOING TO ZERO),
(TLT), (TBT), ($TNX),
(TESTIMONIAL)

March 11, 2019

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
March 8, 2019
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(MARCH 6 BIWEEKLY STRATEGY WEBINAR Q&A),
(SPY), (SDS), (TLT), (TBT), (GE), (IYM),
(MSFT), (IWM), (AAPL), (ITB), (FCX), (FXE)

The Market Outlook for the Week Ahead, or the Canaries in the Coal Mine are Dying

Diary, Newsletter

Well, that was some week!

After moving up in a straight line for ten weeks, markets are now doing their best impression of a Q4 repeat.

The transports Index (XTN), the most important leading indicator for markets, has been down for 11 straight days, the worst run in 40 years.

And now for the bad news.

Look at a long term chart for the S&P 500 (SPY) and the head and shoulder top practically leaps at you and grabs you by the lapels (that is, if you are one of the few who still wears a suit).

It makes you want to slit your wrist, jump off the nearest bridge, or binge watch all nine seasons of The Walking Dead. It neatly has the next bear market starting around say May 10 at 4:00 PM EST, a rollover point I put out two years ago.

However, hold that move! As long as we have a free Fed put under the market in the form of Jay Powell’s “patience’ policy, we are not going to have a major crash any time soon. That is 2021 business.

It's more likely we trade in a long sideways range until the economy finally rolls over and dies. So when we hit my first (SPY) downside target at the 50-day moving average at $269, which is a very convenient 5% down from the recent top, could well bounce hard and I might add some longs in the best quality names. It all sets of my dreaded flatline of death scenario for the rest of 2019.

Last week saw an unremitting onslaught of bad news from the economy.

The February Nonfarm Payroll report came in at a horrific 200,000 when 210,000 was expected, sending traders to man the lifeboats. The headline Unemployment Rate dropped 0.2% to 3.8%. Average Hourly Earnings spiked 11 cents to $27.66, a 3.4% YOY gain and the biggest pop since 2009.

Construction lost 31,000 jobs, while leisure and Hospitality added no jobs at all. The stunner is that the U6 long term structural “discouraged worker” unemployment rate dropped an amazing 0.8% to 7.4%, the sharpest drop on record. Fewer jobs, but at higher wages is the takeaway here, the exact opposite of what markets want to hear.

US Construction Spending fell off a cliff, down 0.6% in December. It seems that nobody wants to invest ahead of a recession.

The dollar soared (UUP), and gold (GLD) got hammered. You can blame the slightly stronger GDP print on Thursday the week before, which came in at 2.2% instead of 1.8%. As long as Jay doesn’t raise interest rates this is just a brief short covering rally for the buck.

China cut its growth forecast from 6.5% to 6.0% GDP growth for 2019. The trade war with the US and the stimulus hasn’t kicked in yet. The last time they did this, the market fell 1,000 points. Buy (FXI) on the dip.

US Trade Deficit hit ten-year high at $59.8 billion for December, and a staggering $419 billion for the year. It’s funny how foreigners stop buying your goods when you declare war on them. Even Teslas (TSLA) are being stopped at the border in China. Who knew?

New trade tariffs hit US consumers the hardest adding $69 billion to their annual bill. Falling real earnings and rising costs is hardly a sustainable model. Will someone please tell the president?

US growth is fading, says the Fed Beige Book, slowing to a “slight to moderate rate”. The government shutdown is the cause. With Europe already in recession, I’ll be using rallies to increase my shorts. Sell (SPY) and (IWM).

The European Central Bank axed its growth forecast sharply, from 1.7% to 1.1%. Stimulus to renew on all front, including more quantitative easing. It’s just a matter of time before their recession pulls the US down. Sell the Euro (FXE).

You lost $3.7 trillion in Q4, or so says the Fed about the decline of national personal net worth during the stock market crash, the sharpest decline in a decade. You’re now only worth $104.3 trillion.

The Mad Hedge Fund Trader actually gained ground last week, thanks to profits on our short positions rising more than our offsetting losses on our longs.

I have doubled up my overall positions, finally taking advantage of the rollover in all risk assets from a historic ten-week run to the upside. I added shorts in the S&P 500 (SPY) and the Russell 2000 (IWM) against a very deep in-the-money long in Freeport McMoRan (FCX) the world’s largest copper producer.

The thinking here is that with China the only economy in the world that is stimulating its economy and the planet’s largest copper consumer, copper makes a nice long side hedge against my short positions.

The Mad Hedge Technology Letter is happily running a short position is Apple (AAPL) which is now almost at its maximum profit point. We only have four days to run to expiration when the position we bought for $4.60 will be worth $5.00.

February came in at a hot +4.16% for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader. March started out negative, down -0.84%, thanks to a wicked stop loss on Gold (GLD). We had 80% of the maximum potential profit at one point but left the money on the table at the highs.

My 2019 year to date return ratcheted up to +12.84%, a new all-time high and boosting my trailing one-year return back up to +29.92%.

My nine-year return clawed its way up to +312.94%, another new high. The average annualized return appreciated to +33.83%.

I am now 50% in cash, 20% long Freeport McMoRan (FCX), and 10% short bonds (TLT), 10% short the S&P 500, and 10% short the Russell 2000.

We have managed to catch every major market trend this year, loading the boat with technology stocks at the beginning of January, selling short bonds, and buying gold (GLD). I am trying to avoid stocks until the China situation resolves itself one way or the other.

As for the Mad Hedge Technology Letter, it is short Apple (AAPL).

Q4 earnings reports are pretty much done, so the coming week will be pretty boring on the data front after last week's fireworks.

On Monday, March 11, at 8:30 AM EST, January Retail Sales is ut.

On Tuesday, March 12, 8:30 AM EST, the February Consumer Price Index is published.

On Wednesday, March 13 at 8:30 AM EST, the February Durable Goods is updated.

On Thursday, March 14 at 8:30 AM EST, we get Weekly Jobless Claims. These are followed by January New Home Sales.

On Friday, March 15 at 9:15 AM EST, February Industrial Production comes out. The Baker-Hughes Rig Count follows at 1:00 PM.

As for me, I’ll be headed to the De Young Museum of fine art in San Francisco to catch the twin exhibitions for Monet and Gaugin. When it rains every day of the week, there isn’t much to do but go cultural.

Good luck and good trading.

John Thomas
CEO & Publisher
The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Good Trades are Getting Harder to Find

March 8, 2019

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
March 8, 2019
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(MARCH 6 BIWEEKLY STRATEGY WEBINAR Q&A),
(SPY), (SDS), (TLT), (TBT), (GE), (IYM),
(MSFT), (IWM), (AAPL), (ITB), (FCX), (FXE)

March 6 Biweekly Strategy Webinar Q&A

Diary, Newsletter

Below please find subscribers’ Q&A for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader March 3 Global Strategy Webinar with my guest and co-host Bill Davis of the Mad Day Trader. Keep those questions coming!

Q: Are you sticking to your market top (SPY), (SDS) by mid-May?

A: Yes, at the rate that economic data is deteriorating, and earnings are falling, there’s no prospect of more economic stimulation here, my May top in the market is looking better than ever. Europe going into recession will be the gasoline on the fire.

Q: Where do you see interest rates (TLT) in 1-2 years?

A: Interest rates in 2 years could be at zero. If interest rates peaked at 3.25% last year, then the next move could be to zero, or negative numbers. The world is awash in cash, and without any economic growth to support that, you could have massive cuts in interest rates.

Q: Will (TLT) be going higher when a market panic sets in?

A: It will, which is why I’m being cautious on my short positions and why I’m only using tops to sell. You can be wrong in this market but still make money on every put spread, as long as you’re going far enough in the money. That said, when the stock market starts to roll over big time, you want to go long bonds, not short, and we may do that someday.

Q: Do you see a selloff to stocks similar to last December?

A: As long as the Fed does not raise interest rates, I don’t expect to get a selloff of more than 5% or 6% initially. If we do get a dramatic worsening of economic data and it looks like we’re headed in that direction, the Fed will start cutting interest rates, the recession signal will be on and only then will we drop to the December lows—and possibly as low as 18,000 in the Dow.

Q: General Electric has gone from $6 to $10; what would you do now?

A: Short term, sell with a 66% gain in a stock. Long term, you probably want to hold on. However, their problems are massive and will take years to sort out, probably not until the other side of the next recession.

Q: Microsoft (MSFT): long term hold or sell?

A: Absolutely long-term hold; look for another double in this company over the next 3 years. This is the gold standard in technology stocks today. Short term, you’re looking at no more than $15 of downside to the December low.

Q: Would you short banks (IYF) here since interest rates have failed to push them higher?

A: I would not; they’ve been one of the worst performing sectors of the market and they’re all very low, historically. You want to short highs like I’m doing now in the (SPY), the (IWM), and Apple (AAPL), not lows.

Q: Is the China trade deal (FXI) a ‘sell the news’ event?

A: Absolutely; there’s not a hedge fund out there that isn’t waiting to go short on a China trade deal. The weakness this week is them front-running that news.

Q: Do you see emerging markets (EEM) pushing higher from the 42 level, or will a global recession bring it back to earth?

A: First of all, (EEM) will go higher as long as interest rates in the U.S. are flatlining, so I expect a rally to last until the spring; however, when a real recession does become apparent, that sector will roll over along with everything else.

Q: Would you buy homebuilders (ITB) if this lower interest rate environment persists?

A: I wouldn’t. First of all, they’ve already had a big 28% run since the beginning of the year— like everything else—and second, low-interest rates don’t help if you can’t afford the house in the first place.

Q: Would you short corporate bonds if you think there’s going to be a recession next year?

A: I’m glad you asked. Absolutely not, not even on pain of death. I would buy bonds because interest rates going to zero takes bond prices up hugely.

Q: Should you buy stocks in front of a blackout period on corporate buybacks?

A: Absolutely not. Corporate buybacks are the number one buyers of shares this year, possibly exceeding $1 trillion. Companies are not allowed to buy their own stocks anywhere from a couple of weeks to a month ahead of their earnings release. By removing the principal buyer of a share, you want to sell, not buy.

Q: What are the chances the China trade deal (FXI) breaks down this month and no signing takes place?

A: I have a feeling Trump is desperate to sign anything these days, and I think the Chinese know that as well, especially in the wake of the North Korean diplomatic disaster. He has to sign the deal or we’ll go to recession, and that would be tough to run on for reelection.

Q: Which stock or ETF would you short on real estate?

A: If you short the iShares US Home Construction ETF (ITB), you short the basket. Shorting individual stocks is always risky—you really have to know what’s going on there.

Q: What’s the best commodity play out there?

A: Copper. If China is the only country that’s stimulating its economy right now, and China is the largest consumer of copper, then you want to buy copper. The electric car boom feeds into copper because every new vehicle needs 20 pounds of copper for wiring and rotors. Copper is also cheap as it is coming off of a seven-year bear market. What do you buy at market tops? Only cheap stuff.

Q: Why did you go so far in the money in the Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) call spread with only a 10% profit on the trade in five weeks?

A: In this kind of market, I’ll take 10% in 5 weeks all day long. But additionally, when prices are this high, I want to be as conservative as possible. Going deep in the money on that is a very low-risk trade. It’s a bet that copper doesn’t go back to the December lows in five weeks, and that’s a bet I’m willing to make.

Q: Will a new round of QE in Europe affect our stock market?

A: Yes, it’s terrible news. It will weaken the Euro (FXE), strengthen the dollar (UUP), and force US companies to lower earnings guidance even further. That is bad for the market and is a reason why I have been selling short.

Sending You Trade Alerts from Africa

March 6, 2019

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
March 6, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(WILL UNICORNS KILL THE BULL MARKET?),
(TSLA), (NFLX), (DB), (DOCU), (EB), (SVMK), (ZUO), (SQ),
(A NOTE ON OPTIONS CALLED AWAY), (TLT)

A Note on Assigned Options, or Options Called Away

Diary, Newsletter

With stock market volatility greatly elevated and trading volumes through the roof, there is a heightened probability that your short options position gets called away.

I have already gotten calls from holders of the iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund (TLT) March 2019 $124-$126 in-the-money vertical BEAR PUT spread who have seen their short March $124 puts called away.

If it does, there is only one thing to do: fall down on your knees and thank your lucky stars. You have just made the maximum possible profit for your position. You just won the lottery, literally.

Most of you have short option positions, although you may not realize it. For when you buy an in-the-money call option spread, it contains two elements: a long call and a short call. The short called can get assigned, or called away at any time.

You have to be careful here because the inexperienced can blow their newfound windfall if they take the wrong action, so here’s how to handle it.

What your broker had done in effect is allow you to get out of your put spread position at the maximum profit point seven days before the March 15 expiration date.

All you have to do was call your broker and instruct him to exercise your long position in your March $126 to close out your short position in the March $124.

Puts are a right to sell shares at a fixed price before a fixed date, and one option contract is exercisable into 100 shares.

Sounds like a good trade to me.

Weird stuff like this happens in the run-up to options expirations.

A call owner may need to sell a long stock position right at the close, and exercising his long March 15 puts is the only way to execute it.

Ordinary shares may not be available in the market, or maybe a limit order didn’t get done by the stock market close.

There are thousands of algorithms out there which may arrive at some twisted logic that the puts need to be exercised.

Many require a rebalancing of hedges at the close every day which can be achieved through option exercises.

And yes, calls even get exercised by accident. There are still a few humans left in this market to blow it.

And here’s another possible outcome in this process.

Your broker will call you to notify you of an option called away, and then give you the wrong advice on what to do about it.

This generates tons of commissions for the broker but is a terrible thing for the trader to do from a risk point of view, such as generating a loss by the time everything is closed and netted out.

Avarice could have been an explanation here but I think stupidity and poor training and low wages are much more likely.

Brokers have so many ways to steal money legally that they don’t need to resort to the illegal kind.

This exercise process is now fully automated at most brokers but it never hurts to follow up with a phone call if you get an exercise notice. Mistakes do happen.

Some may also send you a link to a video of what to do about all this.

If any of you are the slightest bit worried or confused by all of this, come out of your position RIGHT NOW at a small profit! You should never be worried or confused about any position tying up YOUR money.

Professionals do these things all day long and exercises become second nature, just another cost of doing business.

If you do this long enough, eventually you get hit. I bet you don’t.

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