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Tag Archive for: (TSLA)

Mad Hedge Fund Trader

September 15, 2020

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
September 15, 2020
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(THE MAD HEDGE TRADERS & INVESTORS SUMMIT RECORDING IS UP),
(HOW FREE ENERGY WILL POWER THE COMING ROARING TWENTIES),
(SPWR), (TSLA)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-09-15 09:06:522020-09-15 10:03:09September 15, 2020
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

September 14, 2020

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
September 14, 2020
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, or THE 200-DAYS ARE IN PLAY),
($INDU), (SPX), (SPY), (AAPL), (AMZN),
 (JPM), (C), (BAC), (GLD), (TLT), (TSLA)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-09-14 04:04:462020-09-14 04:37:03September 14, 2020
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

The Market Outlook for the Week Ahead, or the 200-Days are in Play

Diary, Newsletter

Six months into the quarantine, I feel like I’ve been under house arrest with no visiting privileges. And if I go outside for even a few minutes, I have to inhale the equivalent of a pack of cigarettes as I am surrounded by three monster fires.

All I can say is that I’m getting a heck of a lot of work done.

We are in the middle of a 20-year move in the Dow Average from 6,500 to 120,000. We have just completed a fourfold move off the 2009 bottom. All that remains is to complete a second fourfold gain by 2030.

The move is being driven by hyper-accelerating technology on all fronts. The first half of this move was wrought with constant fear and disbelief. The second half will be viewed as a new “Golden Age” and a second “Roaring Twenties.” The euphoria of July and August were just a foretaste.

And here is the dilemma for all investors.

The Dow has just pulled back 6.1% from the all-time high of 29,300 to 27,500. Should you be buying here, keeping the eventual 120,000 target in mind? Or should you hold back and wait for 26,000, 25,000, or 24,000?

The risk is that if you lean out too far to grab the brass ring, you’ll fall off your horse. By getting too smart attempting to buy the bottom, you might miss the next 93,000 points.

And now, I’ll make your choice more complicated.

The president has recently whittled away at his deficit in the polls, however slightly, typical of the run-up to the November elections. That increases the uncertainty of the election outcome and increases market volatility (VIX). Ironically, the better Trump does, the lower stocks will fall. So, if you do hang out for the lower numbers you might actually get them, and then more.

That puts the 200-day moving averages in play, not only for the major indexes but for single stocks as well. That could take Apple (AAPL) from a high of $137 to $80, a Tesla down from a meteoric $500 to $300.

Hey, if this were easy, your cleaning lady would be doing this for a tiny fraction of the pay.

Did I just tell you the market may go up, down, or sideways? I sound like a broker.

The 200-day moving averages are definitely in play. The 200-day moving average for the Dow Average is 26,298, down an even 10% from the high for the year. The technology-heavy S&P 500 could fall as much as 14% to its 200-day at 3,097.

Don’t bet against the Fed as Tuesday’s 700-point rally in the Dow Average sharply reminded traders. Don’t bet against the global scientific community either. That’s why I am fully invested and within spitting distance of a new all-time high. After a pre-election low, the market will soar to new highs. Even if Trump loses the election, quantitative easing and fiscal stimulus will continue as far as the eye can see.

The elephant unwinds. Softbank dumped $718 million worth of technology call options deleveraging in a hurry. (NFLX), (FB), and (ADBE) were the targets according to market makers. They still own $1.66 billion worth of long positions in call options. Softbank’s position has grown so large that even my cleaning lady and gardener know about them.

The Tesla bubble popped, down a record 22% in one day after traders learned it would NOT be added to the S&P 500. Tesla approached my medium-term downside target of down 40%, or $300 a share. It seems too much of its earnings were coming from non-recurring EV subsidies from the Detroit carmakers. With a peak market cap for an eye-popping $450 billion, it’s probably the largest company ever turned down from the Index.

Google ditched Irish office space, putting on ice a plan to rent additional office space for up to 2,000 people in Dublin. The retreat from global office space continues. The company was close to taking 202,000 sq ft (18,766sq m) of space at the Sorting Office building before the virus hit.

AstraZeneca halted their vaccine trial after a patient fell ill. It’s not clear if the vaccine killed off the phase 3 trial volunteer, a preexisting condition felled them, or an unrelated illness hit. The company was developing the “Oxford” vaccine, which had been the best hope for developing Covid-19 immunity. It definitely creates a pause for the headline rush to develop a vaccine. Notice the tests are being held in South Africa where patients have little legal recourse. Keep buying (AZN) on dips.

“Skinny” failed, tanking the Dow Average by 450 points. A Republican Senate failed to provide even $500 billion to support a COVID-19-ravaged economy. There will be no more stimulus until a new administration takes office. Until then, unemployment will remain in the high single digits, tens of thousands of small businesses will fail, and home foreclosures will explode. The stock market cares about none of this, as it is dominated by large, heavily subsidized companies.

Nikola crashed, down 33%, in response to a damning report from a noted short-seller. They don’t have a truck, they lack a claimed hydrogen fuel source, and the founder is milking the company for every penny he can. It’s all hype, thanks to endless quantitative easing. None of the Tesla wannabees are going anywhere. General Motors (GM), which just bought 11% of the company, has egg on its face. With a market cap of $20 billion, Nikola is this year’s Enron. Sell short (NKLA) on rallies.

US inflation jumped, with the Consumer Price Index up 1.3% YOY in August, compared to only 1% in July. Soaring used car prices accounted for the bulk of the gain. More proof that the economy lives. Is this the beginning of the end or the end of the beginning?

Goldman Sachs moved global stocks to “overweight”. They’re preparing for the post-pandemic world. Cyclical “recovery” stocks like banks will take the lead. It fits in nicely with my view of a monster post-election rally and a Dow 120,000 by 2030.

When we come out the other side of this, we will be perfectly poised to launch into my new American Golden Age, or the next Roaring Twenties. With interest rates still at zero, oil cheap, there will be no reason not to. The Dow Average will rise by 400% or more in the coming decade. The American coming out the other side of the pandemic will be far more efficient and profitable than the old.
 
My Global Trading Dispatch clocked its second blockbuster week in a row, thanks to aggressively loading up on stocks at the previous week’s bottom (JPM), (C), (AMZN). My long in gold (GLD) looked shinier than ever. I bet the ranch again on a massive short in the US Treasury bond market (TLT) which paid off big time. My short position in the (SPY) is looking sweet.

My only hickey was an ill-fated long in Apple (AAPL), which I stopped out of at close to cost. Notice that I am shifting my longs away from tech and toward domestic recovery plays.

You only need 50 years of practice to know when to bet the ranch.

That takes our 2020 year-to-date back up to a blistering 35.51%, versus -2.93% for the Dow Average. September stands at a robust 8.96%. That takes my 11-year average annualized performance back to 36.41%. My 11-year total return has reached to another new all-time high at 391.42%. My trailing one year return popped back up to 58.13%.

It will be a dull week on the data front, with only the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee Meeting drawing any attention.

The only numbers that really count for the market are the number of US Coronavirus cases and deaths, which you can find here.

On Monday, September 14 at 11:00 AM US Inflation Expectations are released.

On Tuesday, September 15 at 8:30 AM EST, the New York Empire State Manufacturing Index for September is published. A two-day meeting at the Federal Reserve begins.

On Wednesday, September 16, at 8:30 AM EST, September Retails Sales are printed. At 10:30 AM EST, the EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks are out. At 2:00 the Fed announces its interest rate decision, which will probably bring no change.

On Thursday, September 17 at 8:30 AM EST, the Weekly Jobless Claims are announced. Housing Starts for August are also out.

On Friday, September 18, at 8:30 AM EST, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment is announced. At 2:00 PM The Bakers Hughes Rig Count is released.

As for me, the Boy Scout camporee I was expected to judge and supervise this weekend was cancelled, not because of Covid-19, but smoke. This will certainly go down in history as the year from hell.

Stay healthy.

John Thomas
CEO & Publisher
The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/john-golden-nugget.png 492 656 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-09-14 04:02:132020-09-14 05:41:27The Market Outlook for the Week Ahead, or the 200-Days are in Play
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

September 11, 2020

Tech Letter



Mad Hedge Technology Letter
September 11, 2020
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(AVOID THE TESLA FRAUD LIKE THE PLAGUE)
(TSLA), (NKLA)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-09-11 10:04:282020-09-11 11:04:55September 11, 2020
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Avoid the Tesla Fraud Like the Plague

Tech Letter

There is no car.

That is the conclusion from Hindenburg Research after an extensive investigation behind the origination and current business model of Nikola Corporation (NKLA).

This alleged “intricate” fraud has culminated financially with GM acquiring $2 billion in stock (an 11% stake) in Nikola for non-cash contributions such as engineering and validating a truck for Nikola, $700 million in expense reimbursements, supply contracts, and 80% of the EV credits.

What are the critical problems with Nikola?

There is a laundry list of them.

Inexpensive hydrogen is fundamental to the success of Nikola’s business model. CEO of Nikola Trevor Milton misled hundreds of people and in multiple interviews to have succeeded at cutting the cost of hydrogen by 81% compared to peers.

He also claimed that the company is producing hydrogen.

Nikola has not produced hydrogen at this price or at any price, as he later admitted when pressed.

Trevor claims Nikola designs all key components in-house, but it seems that they have merely bought them from third parties.

Nikola actually buys inverters from a company called Cascadia. In a video showing off its “in-house” inverters, Nikola concealed the Cascadia label with a piece of masking tape.

Their order book has been gerrymandered by touting multi-billion dollars that aren’t real. U.S. Xpress reportedly accounts for a third of its reservations, representing $3.5 billion in orders, but U.S. Xpress had only $1.3 million in cash on hand last quarter.

The actual development of the car has never come to fruition or even started, but seems like an elaborate hoax just to get investors' money by producing fake commercials.

In 2016, Milton hyped “The Holy Grail” of hydrogen technology for trucking, but there has been zero evidence of this.

Milton stenciled in “H2” on the truck despite the vehicle displaying zero hydrogen capabilities

Constructing a zero-emission hydrogen truck is rather difficult. However, merely stenciling “H2” and “Zero Emission Hydrogen Electric” on the side of a non-functioning truck is much easier.

Even the design has been outsourced to a company called Stellar Strategy LLC. Stellar is a well-known producer of off-road vehicles who had advised Nikola on the open cabin version.

The biggest fraud, which can’t be glossed over, is the claim about its battery technology.

Nikola claimed to have cutting edge battery technology, but that was merely a lie.

They planned to buy Battery Tech but found out after it was a vaporware company created by a man who had been indicted months earlier after using his NASA expense account to hire prostitutes.

In 2019, after a signed partnership with Bosch and Powercell, Powercell terminated its partnership saying the business terms were “totally unacceptable”.

After this marginal behavior, Nikola went public then giving it access to billions of public funding even though it had never designed, built, or delivered any resemblance of a car since 2014.

Then the CEO said it produces hydrogen for under $3/kg, representing a 81% discount to the rest of the world, but later admitted it was not true.

What about its staff?

Nikola’s director of hydrogen production/infrastructure is Milton’s little brother, who paved driveways in Hawaii before his Nikola job.

Nikola’s head of infrastructure development is the former general manager of a golf club In Idaho.

Lastly, Nikola’s Chief Engineer was a pinball machine repair guy before his Nikola job.

Nikola is clearly a front for Milton to transfer money into his personal life and has cashed out $70 million around the IPO and amended his share lock-up from 1-year to 180 days.

If he is fired, his equity awards immediately vest, and he is entitled to $20 million over two years.

Milton likely will never even start building a real car.

This is basically deception ranging from passing off fake products as real, staging of misleading videos, which require extensive premeditation, planning, and execution.

He has lied about the abilities of Nikola and the company simply has never even tried to build a car that the company is focused around.

The Tesla (TSLA) and Elon Musk narrative has made investors gullible to throw money at the next Tesla even if it is all a fake.

The money is literally funneled into Milton’s personal life allowing him to buy $50 million of Utah real estate.

The question now is what will GM do after they find out the truth about the matter?

GM might try to recoup the $2 billion (11% stake) if there is a possibility of reclaiming that capital, but if that is sunk money, they might choose to make the best out of a bad situation and elevate Nikola and make a real car out of it.

The only way to save this sinking chief is for GM to gut this fraudulent enterprise and put real engineers in Nikola with its real battery technology and leverage the brand of Nikola.

Nikola also has the support of the U.S. Central Bank that has propped up 40% of the S&P, are essentially zombie companies that cannot even service the interest on their debt.

Could this just be a $2 billion marketing cost for GM? It just might be.

In any case, there are many twists and turns coming up and GM might choose to write off $2 billion.

Unless GM decides to save Nikola, there is no new money coming in and that would be the time to short the stock.

The abomination that is the U.S. financial system encourages financial manipulation on an immense scale because the access to easy money has emboldened the conmen to come up with companies like this.

The insane reality is that CEO and Founder Trevor Milton was able to perpetuate this fraud for so long and cash out from investors who did not do any due diligence.

Nikola is now 7 years old and there are no signs of a car, only fake commercials of one.

The ball is squarely in GM’s court.

If GM cuts its losses, Nikola will never get another dime from any outside investor and is almost guaranteed that they will most likely not be able to produce a real car let alone a quality one with a golf club general manager, concrete repairman, and pinball repair guy at its helm.

I would be short GM – this strikes me as pitiful desperation. They have no chance of catching Tesla and over time, Nikola will fail unless rescued by outside technology, engineering, and management.

Nikola

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-09-11 10:02:302020-09-12 01:26:50Avoid the Tesla Fraud Like the Plague
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

September 11, 2020

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
September 11, 2020
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(WHY SOLID-STATE BATTERIES ARE THE “NEXT BIG THING”)
(TSLA)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-09-11 09:04:302020-09-11 10:04:23September 11, 2020
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Why Solid-State Batteries are the “Next Big Thing”

Diary, Newsletter

“Battery Day” is coming up soon on September 22.

This is Elon Musk’s equivalent to Apple’s developers' conference when he announces his latest products and technological advances with great fanfare. I have been to many of these.

However, this year, Elon may outdo himself, no mean feat, emboldened by last week’s meteoric $450 billion market capitalization for Tesla (TSLA).

Most expect Musk to announce his “Million Mile Battery”, doubling the lifetime of batteries installed in new Teslas. That would increase lifetime recharges from 2,000 to 4,000.

But Elon being Elon, he could also go a giant step forward in battery technology, taking a great leap forward to solid-state technology.

For the last 30 years, the cutting edge of battery design has been trapped in lithium-ion liquid or gel states. This originally Japanese technology took us from the first generation of smartphones in the 1990s to the 1,200-pound, 402-mile range behemoths of today.

Now it’s time to move on.

Solid-state batteries, made of oxide, sulfide, and phosphate ceramics, have existed in labs for decades and are currently used in pacemakers. But economic mass production has remained elusive.

That may be about to change.

Last week, Bill Gates-backed QuantumScape gained a listing on the New York Stock Exchange via a SPAC (special purpose acquisition corporation) with Kensington Capital Acquisition Corp. (KCAC). The deal valued the company at $3.3 billion, a high figure for a firm with no salable product.

QuantumScape is a decade-old San Jose, CA-based startup which has been pioneering solid-state battery technology. It obtained a $100 million investment from Volkswagen in 2018.  QuantumScape’s goal is to supply the batteries for an all-electric VW Golf by 2025.

And here is the big deal about solid state. It offers energy densities 2.5 greater than existing lithium-ion batteries. It also presents far less risk of catching fire when punctured, as we have seen dramatically on TV a few times over the last couple of years.

With such technology, Tesla can cut battery sizes from 1,200 pounds to 500 pounds, chop $6,000 off the cost of production of each car, and further extend ranges because of less weight.

That would enable Tesla to enter the mass market with a $36,000 entry-level Tesla 3 or small SUV Model Y with minimal fuel cost and maintenance for the life of the car. This is how Tesla boosts production from this year’s 500,000 units to 5 million units annually by 2025. This is what the $500 share price was all about.

There are even more advanced battery technologies on the horizon. Samsung is working on graphene technology for its smart phones. The University of Chicago has developed a lithium dioxide battery seven times more powerful than those currently available. Silicon nanowire technology will become viable in three years that offers a further multiplication of ranges.

In the end, Elon Musk may surprise us all. In 2019, Tesla bought Maywell Technologies and their dry battery technology which can produce batteries at 16 times greater energy density at 20% less cost, giving a 20-fold improvement in battery performance.

That is a greater leap in energy densities than we have seen over the past decade when costs dropped by 80%.

As a long time Tesla owner, I can tell you that it has been a battle to keep up with Tesla’s technology. As soon as I bought a Model X two years ago with a 275-mile range, a new 351-mile range was announced. I did get a great deal on the car though and I’ll never drive another vehicle.

For a YouTube video of Bill Gates explaining his involvement in QuantumScape, please click here.

 

 

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/Tesla-Oct-10-2-e1611758060120.png 362 450 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-09-11 09:02:432020-09-11 10:05:18Why Solid-State Batteries are the “Next Big Thing”
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

September 8, 2020

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
September 8, 2020
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, or WHY CASH IS STILL TRASH),
(JPM), (AAPL), (AMZN), (V), (TLT), (SPY), (GOOGL),
 (BAC), (C), (FCX), (VIX), (VXX), (TSLA), (FB)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-09-08 09:04:422020-09-08 11:09:58September 8, 2020
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

The Market Outlook for the Week Ahead, or Why Cash is Still Trash

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

This isn’t the “Big One.”

This isn’t even a Middle One.”

This is no more than a 10%-15% correction typical for long term bull markets.

Sure, we saw every technical indicator known to man scream “SELL” in the run-up to the recent market top. There were other factors at play as well.

The bulk of the buying focused on only the top six stocks, more concentrated than seen during the Dotcom Bubble Top in 2000.

There really was only one buyer. That would be my friend Masayoshi Son’s Softbank (SFTBY). He bought $4 billion worth of big tech call options in the run-up to the top with an exercise value of $30 billion. When he started to sell last Monday, the market for these options vaporized and stocks plunged.

The fact that both Apple (AAPL) and Tesla (TSLA) shares split the same day also defined a market top that I have been warning readers about for weeks.

This is all in the face of the incredible reality that 50% of all S&P 500 (SPY) stocks are down over the past two years. It really has been a stock picker’s market with a turbocharger.

And this isn’t just any old bull market. We are in fact 11 ½ years into a bull market that started in March 2009 that has another decade to run. We have completed the first 400% gain. What lies ahead of us is another stock market increase of 400%, taking us up to 120,000 in the Dow Average by 2030.

And this is a bull market that has suffered plenty of 10%-15% corrections since its inception. The one that began in Thursday is no different. The sole exception to this analysis was the COVID-19-induced 37% meltdown that began in February. That little event only lasted six weeks.

For you see, the fundamentals have not changed one iota. No, I’m not talking about earnings, valuations, or sales growth. That is so 20th century.

No, I’m referring to the only fundamental that counts in the 21st century: Liquidity.

And liquidity isn’t shrinking, it is in fact increasing. That includes the unprecedented expansion of quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve, massive deficit spending by the US government, and zero interest rates, which Fed governor Jay Powell has promised us will continue for another five years.

During the last Dotcom Bubble top, the FAANGs and Tesla (TSLA) did not even exist. Apple was just coming out of its flirtation with bankruptcy and Amazon (AMZN) had just barely gone public. Google (GOOGL) and Facebook (FB) were still but glimmers in their founders’ eyes.

Except now we have a new bullish fundamental to discount: a Biden win in November. Since Biden decisively pulled ahead in the polls in May, the stock market has risen almost every day. He is 4%-10% ahead in every battleground state poll.

Even if Trump were to win every red and red-leaning state accounting for 163 electoral college votes, plus all 63 votes from toss-up states (AZ, NC, IA, FL, GA, OH), he would still lose the election, where 270 votes are needed to win. Just THAT  is a 1:100 event, on the scale of  Harry Truman’s historic 1948 compact, and Trump is no Harry Truman.

So what of Biden wins?

You can count on the $3 trillion stimulus bill passed by the House in March to go through, which primarily allocates money to keep states and local municipalities from firing policemen, firemen, and teachers.

Next to come are another $3 trillion in infrastructure spending. And I absolutely know from past experience that markets love this kind of stuff. It enhanced liquidity even more.

As I say, cash is still trash, and it may remain so for years.

The Top is in, with a horrific two-day 1,500-point selloff in the Dow Average ($INDU) coming out of the blue on no news and signaling the end of the current rally. Whatever went up the most is now going down the most as the Robinhood traders flee in panic. This was long overdue. Margin calls are running rampant.

Volatility (VIX) soared to $38, up 70% in two days, meaning that we may be close to the end of this correction. The (SPX) is down 24 points, 6.7% from the Wednesday high. The last (VIX) peak was at $44 in June and $80 in March. Time to start buying stocks for a yearend rally? Look at the banks.

Was Apple (AAPL) really up 400%? Did Tesla gain 500%? You might be fooled if you didn’t know that these stocks just split, Apple at 4:1 and Tesla for 5:1. In fact, both stocks posted robust gains in real terms, Apple up 5% and Tesla up 10%. Tesla just hit my five-year split-adjusted target of $2,500. Every other analyst had a much lower target or were bearish. Time to run a mile as splits often herald intermediate market tops.

Apple hit a $2.3 trillion in market cap at the peak, up a staggering $300 billion in days. We are truly in La La Land here. The price-earnings multiple has soared from 9X to 40X. That 5G iPhone better deliver. Didn’t you hear that 5G was causing Coronavirus, a popular internet conspiracy theory?

The Dow Average just lost its Apple turbocharger. Some 1,000 of the 2,000 points the Dow Average gained in August were due to Apple alone. With the Dow rebalancing today, with (XOM), (PFE), and (RTX) out and (CRM), (AMGN), and (HON) in, Apple’s influence has been greatly diluted. With the (VIX) back up above $26, the worst is yet to come. The stock market is screaming for a correction.

Copper (FCX) hit a new 3-year high, with demand soaring in China. They were the first to cap Covid-19 and restore their economy. The red metal is a great call on the recovery of the global economy. Those who bought the Freeport McMoRan (FCX) LEAPS I recommended in March are sitting pretty. The shares are up 228% since then.

Tesla to sell $5 billion in stock to finance the construction of new factories in Nevada, TX, and Germany. (TSLA) fell 5% on the news. I had been advising clients to sell all week. It won’t be a conventional secondary stock offering but an effort to sell into every stock spike. More proof that Elon hates Wall Street as if we needed more. With a market cap of $450 billion, investors are finally viewing Tesla as a data company rather than a car company.

US car sales recover to 15.2 million in August on an annualized basis. That brings us almost back to pre-pandemic levels. This is the best indicator yet that the US is returning to a semi-normal economy. Of course, zero interest rates and other unprecedented incentives are a big help.

Consumer Spending popped, up 1.9% in July, which accounts for two-thirds of the US economy. Those who have money are spending like there’s no tomorrow, and with a global pandemic, maybe there won’t be. New car purchases were a big winner as buyers take advantage of 0% financing everywhere.

Weekly Jobless Claims dropped to 880,000, still terrible, but less terrible than last week. California claims have topped 8 million since the pandemic began. Continuing claims drop to 13.3 million, down from the 25 million peak in May.

US Unemployment Rate plunged to 8.4% in August, from 10.2%. The August Nonfarm Payroll report jumps by 1.37 million. It’s a much faster improvement than expected.  Retail gained 248,000, Education & Health Services were up 147,000, and Leisure & Hospitality were up 174,000, Government was up 344,000. It’s all thanks to the miracle of government spending. The Dow Average is down 500 points anyway.

China to dump US Treasury bonds in response to Trump's escalating trade war, putting $200 billion in paper up for sale. They hold $1.07 trillion in total and is our largest single creditor. The (TLT) is down two points on the news, where I am running a double short position. Who is going to fund America’s massive borrowing?


When we come out the other side of this, we will be perfectly poised to launch into my new American Golden Age, or the next Roaring Twenties. With interest rates still at zero, oil cheap, there will be no reason not to. The Dow Average will rise by 400% or more in the coming decade. The American coming out the other side of the pandemic will be far more efficient and profitable than the old.

 
My Global Trading Dispatch bounced back hard with some super aggressive buying of stocks right at the Thursday and Friday market bottoms and selling short of bonds at the top.

By going full speed ahead, damn the torpedoes, I brought in the best two-day return in the 13-year history of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader, up a heroic 8.27%.

It started out as a terrible week, getting flushed out of one of my short positions in the (SPY) for a big loss as the market hit a new all-time high.

Then I got long banks (JPM), Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Visa (V), and went triple short bonds (TLT). I still retain one short in the (SPY), which is now profitable. I would have bought Bank of America (BAC) and Citigroup (C), but the market ran away before I could write the trade alerts.

The instant crash was yet another gift. Right after I shorted bonds, the Chinese hinted that they would unload $200 million worth of their US Treasury bond holdings. The harder I work, the luckier I get.

If these positions expire at max profit in eight trading days, I will be back at new all-time highs. Notice that I am shifting my longs away from tech and toward domestic recovery plays.

You only need 50 years of practice to know when to bet the ranch.

That takes our 2020 year to date back up to 30.99%, versus -0.70% for the Dow Average. September stands at 4.44%. That takes my eleven-year average annualized performance back to 36.27%. My 11-year total return returned to 386.90%. My trailing one-year return popped back up to 51.60%.

It is a quiet week as always following the fireworks of the jobs data.

The only numbers that really count for the market are the number of US Coronavirus cases and deaths, which you can find here.

On Monday, September 7, it is Labor Day in the US, and markets are closed.

On Tuesday, September 8 at 10:00 AM EST, the Economic Optimism Index for September is released.

On Wednesday, September 9, at 8:13 AM EST, the EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks are out.

On Thursday, September 10 at 8:30 AM EST, the Weekly Jobless Claims are announced. US Core Producer’s Price Index for August is also out.

On Friday, September 4, at 8:30 AM EST, the US Inflation Rate for August is printed. At 2:00 PM The Bakers Hughes Rig Count is released.

As for me, I am headed back to Lake Tahoe to flee the horrific smoke in the San Francisco Bay Area drifting our way from the rampant California wildfires. If people don’t believe in global warming, they should come here where we have it in spades. We’ll even give you some.

At least we’ve been getting spectacular sunsets.

Stay healthy.

John Thomas
CEO & Publisher
The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/CA-sunset.png 640 480 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-09-08 09:02:532020-09-08 11:10:54The Market Outlook for the Week Ahead, or Why Cash is Still Trash
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

September 4, 2020

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
September 4, 2020
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(SEPTEMBER 2 BIWEEKLY STRATEGY WEBINAR Q&A),
(TSLA), (SPY), (GLD), (GDX), (JPM), (BAC), (C), (WFC), (VIX), (VXX), (TLT), (TBT), (USO), (INDU), (SDS),

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