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Tag Archive for: (UUP)

MHFTR

Italy's Big Wake-Up Call

Diary, Newsletter, Research

Those planning a European vacation this summer just received a big gift from the people of Italy.

Since April, the Euro (FXE) has fallen by 10%. That $1,000 Florence hotel suite now costs only $900. Mille grazie!

You can blame the political instability on the Home of Caesar, which has not had a functioning government since March. The big fear is that the extreme left would form a coalition government with the extreme right that could lead to its departure from the European Community and the Euro. Think of it as Bernie Sanders joining Donald Trump!

In fact, Italy has had 61 different governments since WWII. It changes administrations like I change luxury cars, about once a year. Welcome to European debt crisis part 27.

I can't remember the last time markets cared about what happened in Europe. It was probably the first Greek debt crisis in 2011. This month, 10-year Italian bond yields have rocketed from 1% to 3%. But they care today, big time.

Given the reaction of the global financial markets, you could have been forgiven for thinking that the world had just ended.

U.S. Treasury Bond yields (TLT) saw their biggest plunge in years, off 15 basis points to 2.75%. The Dow Average ($INDU) collapsed by $500 to $24,250, with interest sensitive banks such J.P. Morgan Chase (JPM) and Bank of America (BAC) delivering the worst performance of the day.

Even oil prices collapsed for an entirely separate set of reasons - so far, the best performing commodity of 2018. The price of Texas Tea pared 10% in a week.

Saudi Arabia looks like it is about to abandon the wildly successful OPEC production quotas that have been boosting oil prices for the past year, and there are concerns that Iran will withdraw from the nuclear non-proliferation treaty. The geopolitical premium is back with a vengeance.

So, if the Italian developments are a canard why are we REALLY going down?

You're not going to like the answer.

It turns out that rising inflation, interest rates, oil and commodity prices, the U.S. dollar, U.S. national debt, budget deficits, and stagnant wage growth are a TERRIBLE backdrop for risk in general and stocks specifically. And this is all happening with the major indexes at the top end of recent ranges.

In other words, it was an accident waiting to happen.

Traders are extremely nervous, global uncertainty is high, the seasonals are awful, and Washington is s ticking time bomb. If you were wondering why I was issuing so few Trade Alerts in May these are the reasons.

This all confirms my expectation that markets will remain in increasingly narrow trading ranges for the next six months until the mid-term congressional elections.

Which is creating opportunities.

If you hated bonds at a 3.12% yield from two weeks ago, you absolutely have to despise them at 2.75% today. That's why I added outright bond put options today to my model trading portfolio.

Stocks are still wildly overvalued for the short term, so I'll keep my short position there. As for oil (USO), gold (GLD), and the currencies, I don't want to touch them here.

So watch for those coming Trade Alerts. I'm not dead yet, just resting.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Waiting for My Shot

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/JT-playing-pool-story-1-image-6-e1527632226975.jpg 239 300 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2018-05-30 01:07:092018-05-30 01:07:09Italy's Big Wake-Up Call
MHFTR

May 22, 2018

Diary, Newsletter

Global Market Comments
May 22, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(DON'T MISS THE MAY 23 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR),
(CHINA'S BIG TRADE WIN),
(SPY), (TLT), (UUP), (USO), (GLD), (SOYB),
(HOW TO USE YOUR CELL PHONE ABROAD)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2018-05-22 01:09:182018-05-22 01:09:18May 22, 2018
MHFTR

China's Big Trade Win

Diary, Newsletter, Research

My phone started ringing on Sunday afternoon as soon as the futures markets opened in Asia. The U.S. had reached agreement with China on trade and the Dow futures were up 200 points.

Had the next leg of the bull market begun? ?Was it time to buy?

I asked what were the specifics of the deal. There weren't any. I asked about generalities. Those were absent as well.

All they knew was that the U.S. was suspending threatened tariff increases in exchange for a vague Chinese promise to buy more U.S. exports over the long term.

It was in effect a big Chinese win. The development allows the Middle Kingdom to do nothing but stall for time until the next U.S. administration comes to power regardless of which party wins. The Chinese think in terms of centuries, so waiting three more years for a better negotiating backdrop is no big deal.

It vindicates my own call on how the Chinese trade war would play out. After a lot of threats and saber rattling, the administration would achieve nothing, declare victory, and go home.

Traders should NOT be buying this pop in stock prices on pain of death. All that will happen is that stocks will trade back up to the top of the recent range, and then stall out once again as we slide back into slow summer trading. In fact, all we have accomplished is to revisit last week's high in stocks.

Stocks (SPY) weren't buying this trade agreement for two seconds, nor were bonds (TLT), foreign exchange (UUP), gold (GLD), or energy (USO). Not even the agricultural markets were believing it. Soybeans (SOYB), the commodity most affected by the China trade, were up a measly 2.45%. If markets really believed something substantial was afoot they would be limit up three days in a row. I've seen this happen.

It was obvious that little was accomplished when you saw the endless parade of administration officials praising the deals merits. My half century of trading experience has taught me when someone is working so hard to sell you a bridge, you look the other way.

And here is the problem. Beyond cutting-edge technology, there's nothing that China HAS to buy from the U.S. China's largest imports are in energy and foodstuffs, both globally traded commodities.

The oil and gas coming out of America looks pretty much like the Saudi Arabian and Russian kind. U.S. energy infrastructure is already groaning at the seams as it approaches 11 million barrels a day.

To double that from current levels just to fill the trade gap with China would require a multi-decade effort financed with trillions of dollars in private capital just to produce more oil with prices at a three-year high. In other words, it isn't going to happen.

The same is true with agriculture. I doubt there is a single farmer in the country willing to risk his own money to increase production on the back of the China deal. Rainfall is a much bigger concern.

In the end, stocks will eventually rise to new highs by the end of the year, just not right now. And they will do so on the back of the prodigious earnings growth of U.S. companies, which has been expanding at a breakneck pace for nearly a decade.

It is notable that the only major index that hit new highs today was the small cap Russell 2000 (IWM) where the constituent companies essentially do NO trade with China.

To believe otherwise would be giving the cock the credit for the sun rising, which happens every morning like clockwork.

 

 

 

 

 

It Worked Again!

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/Great-Wall-of-China-story-2-image-5-e1526941006225.jpg 201 300 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2018-05-22 01:07:402018-05-22 01:07:40China's Big Trade Win
MHFTR

April 16, 2018

Diary, Newsletter

Global Market Comments
April 16, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(THE MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, or THE WEEK THAT NOTHING HAPPENED),
(TLT), (GLD), (SPY), (QQQ), (USO), (UUP),
(VXX), (GOOGL), (JPM), (AAPL),
(HOW TO HANDLE THE FRIDAY, APRIL 20 OPTIONS EXPIRATION), (TLT), (VXX), (GOOGL), (JPM)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2018-04-16 01:08:332018-04-16 01:08:33April 16, 2018
MHFTR

The Market Outlook for the Week Ahead, or The Week That Nothing Happened

Diary, Newsletter, Research

This was the week that American missiles were supposed to rain down upon war-torn Syria, embroiling Russia in the process. It didn't happen.

This was the week that the president was supposed to fire special prosecutor Robert Mueller, who with his personal lawyer is currently reading his private correspondence for the past decade with great interest. That didn't happen either.

It was also the week that China was supposed to raise the stakes in its trade war with the United States. Instead, President Xi offered a conciliatory speech, taking the high road.

What happens when you get a whole lot of nothing?

Stocks rally smartly, the S&P 500 (SPY) rising by 2.87% and the NASDAQ (QQQ) tacking on an impressive 3.45%. Several of the Mad Hedge long positions jumped by 10%.

And that pretty much sums up the state of the market today.

Get a quiet week and share prices will naturally rise, thanks to the power of that fastest earnings growth in history, stable interest rates, a falling dollar, and gargantuan share buybacks that are growing by the day.

With a price earnings multiple of only 16, shares are offering investors the best value in three years, and there is very little else to buy.

This is why I am running one of the most aggressive trading books in memory with a 70% long 30% short balance.

Something else unusual happened this week. I added my first short position of the year in the form of puts on the S&P 500 right at the Friday highs.

And, here is where I am sticking to my guns on my six-month range trade call. If you buy every dip and sell every rally in a market that is going nowhere, you will make a fortune over time.

Provided that the (SPY) stays between $250 and $277 that is exactly what followers of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader are going to do.

By the way, 3 1/2 months into 2018, the Dow Average is dead unchanged at 24,800.

Will next week be so quiet?

I doubt it, which is why I'm starting to hedge up my trading book for the first time in two years. Washington seems to be an endless font of chaos and volatility, and the pace of disruption is increasing.

The impending attack on Syria is shaping up to more than the one-hit wonder we saw last year. It's looking more like a prolonged air, sea, and ground campaign. When your policies are blowing up, nothing beats like bombing foreigners to distract attention.

Expect a 500-point dive in the Dow Average when this happens, followed by a rapid recovery. Gold (GLD) and oil prices (USO) will rocket. The firing of Robert Mueller is worth about 2,000 Dow points of downside.

Followers of the Mad Hedge Trade Alert Service continued to knock the cover off the ball.

I continued to use weakness to scale into long in the best technology companies Alphabet (GOOGL) and banks J.P. Morgan Chase (JPM), and Citigroup (C). A short position in the Volatility Index (VXX) is a nice thing to have during a dead week, which will expire shortly.

As hedges, I'm running a double short in the bond market (TLT) and a double long in gold (GLD). And then there is the aforementioned short position in the (SPY). I just marked to market my trading book and all 10 positions are in the money.

Finally, I took profits in my Apple (AAPL) long, which I bought at the absolute bottom during the February 9 meltdown. I expect the stock to hit a new all-time high in the next several weeks.

That brings April up to a +5.81% profit, my trailing one-year return to +50.23%, and my eight-year average performance to a new all-time high of 289.19%. This brings my annualized return up to 34.70%.

The coming week will be a slow one on the data front. However, there has been a noticeable slowing of the data across the board recently.

Is this a one-off weather-related event, or the beginning of something bigger? Is the trade war starting to decimate confidence and drag on the economy?

On Monday, April 16, at 8:30 AM, we get March Retail Sales. Bank of America (BAC) and Netflix (NFLX) report.

On Tuesday, April 17, at 8:30 AM EST, we receive March Housing Starts. Goldman Sachs (GS) and United Airlines (UAL) report.

On Wednesday, April 18, at 2:00 PM, the Fed Beige Book is released, giving an insider's view of our central bank's thinking on interest rates and the state of the economy. Morgan Stanley (MS) and American Express (AXP) report.

Thursday, April 19, leads with the Weekly Jobless Claims at 8:30 AM EST, which saw a fall of 9,000 last week. Blackstone (BX) and Nucor (NUE) report.

On Friday, April 20, at 10:00 AM EST, we get the Baker Hughes Rig Count at 1:00 PM EST. Last week brought an increase of 8. General Electric (GE) and Schlumberger (SLB) report.

As for me, I'll be heading into San Francisco's Japantown this weekend for the annual Northern California Cherry Blossom Festival. I'll be viewing the magnificent flowers, listening to the Taiko drums, eating sushi, and practicing my rusty Japanese.

Good Luck and Good Trading.

 

 

 

 

 

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/Japan-pix-story-1-image-6.jpg 330 219 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2018-04-16 01:07:542018-04-16 01:07:54The Market Outlook for the Week Ahead, or The Week That Nothing Happened
MHFTR

April 11, 2018

Diary, Newsletter

Global Market Comments
April 11, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(TRADING THE NEW VOLATILITY),
(VIX), (VXX),
(THE TWO CENTURY DOLLAR SHORT), (UUP)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2018-04-11 01:08:452018-04-11 01:08:45April 11, 2018
MHFTR

April 10, 2018

Diary, Newsletter

Global Market Comments
April 10, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(DON'T MISS THE APRIL 11 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR),
(IT'S ALL ABOUT WHAT HAPPENS NEXT),
($INDU), (GOOGL),
(HOW AMERICA'S PLUNGING EDUCATION SURPLUS WILL DAMAGE YOUR PORTFOLIO), (UUP)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2018-04-10 01:09:212018-04-10 01:09:21April 10, 2018
MHFTR

How America's Plunging Education Surplus Will Damage Your Portfolio

Diary, Newsletter, Research

For the first time in 40 years, the number of foreign students applying for American colleges and universities is declining.

The drop is particularly noticeable at University of California, Berkeley, where Asian students account for about 10% of incoming freshmen. This is turning the Golden State's education budget upside-down, because foreigners pay almost triple the tuition of in-state residents, some $41,942 a year for the 2018-2019 school year.

Trump's China bashing has been widely reported throughout the Middle Kingdom, scaring away prospective applicants.

Who wants to attend school in a country at war with the homeland - trade or the shooting kind?

So has the upturn in attacks in the US on minorities, be they religious, ethnic, national, or otherwise.

Trump certainly made that attitude crystal with his attempted immigration bans, now blocked by the courts.

Students are worried they will be physically attacked, or deported by an aggressive immigration department. That is if they can even get into the country in the first place.

It isn't just California schools that are getting hit. Institutions of higher learning across the nation are reporting similar drawdowns.

Foreign students are instead applying to British and European schools, or not going abroad at all to save money.

If this sorry trend continues, it will cause substantial damage to the American education system, the US economy as a whole, US influence abroad, and the US dollar (UUP).

Higher education has grown into a gigantic service industry for America, with a massively positive impact on our balance of payments, generating an impact on the world far beyond the dollar amounts involved.

According to the nonprofit Institute of International Education, there are 819,644 foreign students in the US today.

This combined student body pays an average out-of-state tuition of $25,000 a year each totaling some $24 billion. The positive impact on the US balance of payments and the US dollar exchange rate is huge.

China is far and away the dominant origin of these students, accounting for 235,597.

South Korea and India take the No. 2 and No. 3 slots, thanks to the generous scholarships provided by their home governments. Saudi Arabia and Brazil are showing the fastest growth rates.

A fortunate few, backed by endowed chairs and buildings financed by wealthy and eager parents, land places at prestigious universities such as Harvard, Princeton, and Yale.

The top destinations of foreign students are the University of Southern California in Los Angeles, CA, the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Indiana's Perdue University, and New York University, with each of these claiming 9,000 foreign students.

However, the overwhelming majority enroll in the provinces in a thousand rural state universities and junior colleges of which most of us have never heard.

Many of these schools now have diligent admissions officers scouring the Chinese hinterlands looking for new applicants.

A college degree once was a uniquely American privilege. In 1974 the US led the world, with 24% of the population getting a sheepskin.

Today, it has fallen to 16th, with 28% completing a four-year program, lagging countries such as South Korea, Canada, and Japan.

The financial windfall has enabled once sleepy little schools to build themselves into world-class institutions of higher learning, with 30,000 or more students.

They boast state-of-the-art facilities, much to the joy of local residents and budget-constrained state education officials.

Furthermore, the overwhelming leadership of education industry is steadily Americanizing the global establishment.

I can't tell you how many times over the decades I have run into the Persian Gulf sovereign fund manager who went to Florida State, the Asian CEO who attended Cal State Hayward, or the African finance minister who fondly recalled rooting for the Kansas State Wildcats.

Remember the recently ousted president of Egypt, Mohamed Morsi? He was a former classmate of mine at the University of Southern California. Go Trojans! Do you think he was singing "Fight on For Old SC" in his jail cell?

Those who constantly bemoan the impending fall of the Great American Empire can take heart by merely looking inland at these impressive degree factories. These students are not clamoring to get into universities in Beijing, Moscow, or Tokyo.

Not a few marry and permanently settle in the US, while many others take their American brides home. Saudi Arabia is home to some 50,000 such wives, who had to agree to sharia law and give up driving to obtain resident permits.

It also explains why the dollar is so strong in the face of absolutely gigantic, structural trade deficits.

When a foreign student pays tuition to a US school, it is treated as an export of a service in terms of the US balance of payments, much like a car or an airplane, our country's largest exports.

Rising exports mean that more dollars are staying home and fewer are going abroad, strengthening the value of the greenback.

And $24 billion and change offsets a lot of imports of cheap electronics, clothing, and toys from China.

The US has plenty of capacity to expand this trade in services. More than 70% of foreign students are concentrated in just 200 of the country's 4,000 colleges.

The University of California has blazed a path that many other cash-strapped institutions are certain to follow. During the financial crisis, the world's greatest public university saw two back-to-back 40% budget cuts from Sacramento.

So, it made up the shortfall by bumping up foreign admissions from 5% to 10%, largely from Asia. They must pay $38,000 a year in tuition, compared to $18,000 for in-state residents.

What is the upshot of all of this for the locals? It is now a lot harder to get an "A" in Math at UC Berkeley.

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/Graduating-picture-story-3-e1523312478250.jpg 200 300 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2018-04-10 01:06:452018-04-10 01:06:45How America's Plunging Education Surplus Will Damage Your Portfolio
MHFTR

March 22, 2018

Diary, Newsletter

Global Market Comments
March 22, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(THE FED SIGNALS HALF SPEED AHEAD),
(TLT), (UUP), (FXE), (FXY), (FB),
(WHY YOU WILL LOSE YOUR JOB IN THE NEXT FIVE YEARS, AND WHAT TO DO ABOUT IT)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2018-03-22 01:08:052018-03-22 01:08:05March 22, 2018
MHFTR

Fed Signals Half Speed Ahead

Diary, Newsletter

OK, the number is out!

The Fed just raised interest rates by 25 basis points, taking the cost of overnight money for the big banks to a 1.50%-1.75% range.

The boiling frog analogy comes to mind. Keep raising the temperature so slowly you don't notice it until your portfolio eventually gets cooked.

I believe we have two years of quarter point rises ahead of us like clockwork. This will invert the yield curve in a year, meaning that short term interest rates will exceed the 10-year US Treasury bond, now at 2.87%.

A bear market in stocks ALWAYS follows in six to 12 months. So, make hay while the sun shines, because this bull is rapidly becoming a short-dated option, with only a year or more life left to it.

How could I be wrong? Inflation accelerates, forcing our august central banks to raise rates in one shot by 50 basis points instead of the expected 25.

That would really set the cat among the pigeons, and trigger our next Dow 1,000 point down day.

My long-term economic forecast is still holding water that the benefits of the tax cuts will be entirely offset by rising interest rates and costs, keeping GDP growth at 2.5%...and then to zero.

The unfolding global trade war may also take down global growth and bring forward the next bear market and recession by months, if not a full year. Watch those headlines!

At the end of the day, we will be left with zero economic growth (a recession), higher interest rates, and A LOT more debt, both at the personal and the national level, and naturally exploding deficits everywhere.

That certainly is how the foreign exchange market is reading it, which completely savaged the greenback today. The dollar (UUP) got slaughtered against the Euro (FXE) and the Japanese Yen (FXY). Bonds actually rose on the news, which is why I'm out of that market.

It all works for me, as there will be more trading opportunities playing out in this scenario than pimples at a high school prom.

The biggest imbalance in the current tax policy is allowing multinationals to bring trillions of dollars home by paying minimal tax.

The overwhelming majority of these are big technology companies, meaning that the money is coming back here in the San Francisco Bay Area, causing local asset prices to explode.

I just received a letter from a local real estate broker telling me that the value of my home has risen by 27% in the past year to $5 million, and that now is the best time in history TO SELL!

They may be right.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2018-03-22 01:07:422018-03-22 01:07:42Fed Signals Half Speed Ahead
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There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.

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