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Tag Archive for: (UUP)

MHFTR

China's Big Trade Win

Diary, Newsletter, Research

My phone started ringing on Sunday afternoon as soon as the futures markets opened in Asia. The U.S. had reached agreement with China on trade and the Dow futures were up 200 points.

Had the next leg of the bull market begun? ?Was it time to buy?

I asked what were the specifics of the deal. There weren't any. I asked about generalities. Those were absent as well.

All they knew was that the U.S. was suspending threatened tariff increases in exchange for a vague Chinese promise to buy more U.S. exports over the long term.

It was in effect a big Chinese win. The development allows the Middle Kingdom to do nothing but stall for time until the next U.S. administration comes to power regardless of which party wins. The Chinese think in terms of centuries, so waiting three more years for a better negotiating backdrop is no big deal.

It vindicates my own call on how the Chinese trade war would play out. After a lot of threats and saber rattling, the administration would achieve nothing, declare victory, and go home.

Traders should NOT be buying this pop in stock prices on pain of death. All that will happen is that stocks will trade back up to the top of the recent range, and then stall out once again as we slide back into slow summer trading. In fact, all we have accomplished is to revisit last week's high in stocks.

Stocks (SPY) weren't buying this trade agreement for two seconds, nor were bonds (TLT), foreign exchange (UUP), gold (GLD), or energy (USO). Not even the agricultural markets were believing it. Soybeans (SOYB), the commodity most affected by the China trade, were up a measly 2.45%. If markets really believed something substantial was afoot they would be limit up three days in a row. I've seen this happen.

It was obvious that little was accomplished when you saw the endless parade of administration officials praising the deals merits. My half century of trading experience has taught me when someone is working so hard to sell you a bridge, you look the other way.

And here is the problem. Beyond cutting-edge technology, there's nothing that China HAS to buy from the U.S. China's largest imports are in energy and foodstuffs, both globally traded commodities.

The oil and gas coming out of America looks pretty much like the Saudi Arabian and Russian kind. U.S. energy infrastructure is already groaning at the seams as it approaches 11 million barrels a day.

To double that from current levels just to fill the trade gap with China would require a multi-decade effort financed with trillions of dollars in private capital just to produce more oil with prices at a three-year high. In other words, it isn't going to happen.

The same is true with agriculture. I doubt there is a single farmer in the country willing to risk his own money to increase production on the back of the China deal. Rainfall is a much bigger concern.

In the end, stocks will eventually rise to new highs by the end of the year, just not right now. And they will do so on the back of the prodigious earnings growth of U.S. companies, which has been expanding at a breakneck pace for nearly a decade.

It is notable that the only major index that hit new highs today was the small cap Russell 2000 (IWM) where the constituent companies essentially do NO trade with China.

To believe otherwise would be giving the cock the credit for the sun rising, which happens every morning like clockwork.

 

 

 

 

 

It Worked Again!

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/Great-Wall-of-China-story-2-image-5-e1526941006225.jpg 201 300 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2018-05-22 01:07:402018-05-22 01:07:40China's Big Trade Win
MHFTR

April 16, 2018

Diary, Newsletter

Global Market Comments
April 16, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(THE MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, or THE WEEK THAT NOTHING HAPPENED),
(TLT), (GLD), (SPY), (QQQ), (USO), (UUP),
(VXX), (GOOGL), (JPM), (AAPL),
(HOW TO HANDLE THE FRIDAY, APRIL 20 OPTIONS EXPIRATION), (TLT), (VXX), (GOOGL), (JPM)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2018-04-16 01:08:332018-04-16 01:08:33April 16, 2018
MHFTR

The Market Outlook for the Week Ahead, or The Week That Nothing Happened

Diary, Newsletter, Research

This was the week that American missiles were supposed to rain down upon war-torn Syria, embroiling Russia in the process. It didn't happen.

This was the week that the president was supposed to fire special prosecutor Robert Mueller, who with his personal lawyer is currently reading his private correspondence for the past decade with great interest. That didn't happen either.

It was also the week that China was supposed to raise the stakes in its trade war with the United States. Instead, President Xi offered a conciliatory speech, taking the high road.

What happens when you get a whole lot of nothing?

Stocks rally smartly, the S&P 500 (SPY) rising by 2.87% and the NASDAQ (QQQ) tacking on an impressive 3.45%. Several of the Mad Hedge long positions jumped by 10%.

And that pretty much sums up the state of the market today.

Get a quiet week and share prices will naturally rise, thanks to the power of that fastest earnings growth in history, stable interest rates, a falling dollar, and gargantuan share buybacks that are growing by the day.

With a price earnings multiple of only 16, shares are offering investors the best value in three years, and there is very little else to buy.

This is why I am running one of the most aggressive trading books in memory with a 70% long 30% short balance.

Something else unusual happened this week. I added my first short position of the year in the form of puts on the S&P 500 right at the Friday highs.

And, here is where I am sticking to my guns on my six-month range trade call. If you buy every dip and sell every rally in a market that is going nowhere, you will make a fortune over time.

Provided that the (SPY) stays between $250 and $277 that is exactly what followers of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader are going to do.

By the way, 3 1/2 months into 2018, the Dow Average is dead unchanged at 24,800.

Will next week be so quiet?

I doubt it, which is why I'm starting to hedge up my trading book for the first time in two years. Washington seems to be an endless font of chaos and volatility, and the pace of disruption is increasing.

The impending attack on Syria is shaping up to more than the one-hit wonder we saw last year. It's looking more like a prolonged air, sea, and ground campaign. When your policies are blowing up, nothing beats like bombing foreigners to distract attention.

Expect a 500-point dive in the Dow Average when this happens, followed by a rapid recovery. Gold (GLD) and oil prices (USO) will rocket. The firing of Robert Mueller is worth about 2,000 Dow points of downside.

Followers of the Mad Hedge Trade Alert Service continued to knock the cover off the ball.

I continued to use weakness to scale into long in the best technology companies Alphabet (GOOGL) and banks J.P. Morgan Chase (JPM), and Citigroup (C). A short position in the Volatility Index (VXX) is a nice thing to have during a dead week, which will expire shortly.

As hedges, I'm running a double short in the bond market (TLT) and a double long in gold (GLD). And then there is the aforementioned short position in the (SPY). I just marked to market my trading book and all 10 positions are in the money.

Finally, I took profits in my Apple (AAPL) long, which I bought at the absolute bottom during the February 9 meltdown. I expect the stock to hit a new all-time high in the next several weeks.

That brings April up to a +5.81% profit, my trailing one-year return to +50.23%, and my eight-year average performance to a new all-time high of 289.19%. This brings my annualized return up to 34.70%.

The coming week will be a slow one on the data front. However, there has been a noticeable slowing of the data across the board recently.

Is this a one-off weather-related event, or the beginning of something bigger? Is the trade war starting to decimate confidence and drag on the economy?

On Monday, April 16, at 8:30 AM, we get March Retail Sales. Bank of America (BAC) and Netflix (NFLX) report.

On Tuesday, April 17, at 8:30 AM EST, we receive March Housing Starts. Goldman Sachs (GS) and United Airlines (UAL) report.

On Wednesday, April 18, at 2:00 PM, the Fed Beige Book is released, giving an insider's view of our central bank's thinking on interest rates and the state of the economy. Morgan Stanley (MS) and American Express (AXP) report.

Thursday, April 19, leads with the Weekly Jobless Claims at 8:30 AM EST, which saw a fall of 9,000 last week. Blackstone (BX) and Nucor (NUE) report.

On Friday, April 20, at 10:00 AM EST, we get the Baker Hughes Rig Count at 1:00 PM EST. Last week brought an increase of 8. General Electric (GE) and Schlumberger (SLB) report.

As for me, I'll be heading into San Francisco's Japantown this weekend for the annual Northern California Cherry Blossom Festival. I'll be viewing the magnificent flowers, listening to the Taiko drums, eating sushi, and practicing my rusty Japanese.

Good Luck and Good Trading.

 

 

 

 

 

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/Japan-pix-story-1-image-6.jpg 330 219 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2018-04-16 01:07:542018-04-16 01:07:54The Market Outlook for the Week Ahead, or The Week That Nothing Happened
MHFTR

April 11, 2018

Diary, Newsletter

Global Market Comments
April 11, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(TRADING THE NEW VOLATILITY),
(VIX), (VXX),
(THE TWO CENTURY DOLLAR SHORT), (UUP)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2018-04-11 01:08:452018-04-11 01:08:45April 11, 2018
MHFTR

April 10, 2018

Diary, Newsletter

Global Market Comments
April 10, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(DON'T MISS THE APRIL 11 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR),
(IT'S ALL ABOUT WHAT HAPPENS NEXT),
($INDU), (GOOGL),
(HOW AMERICA'S PLUNGING EDUCATION SURPLUS WILL DAMAGE YOUR PORTFOLIO), (UUP)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2018-04-10 01:09:212018-04-10 01:09:21April 10, 2018
MHFTR

How America's Plunging Education Surplus Will Damage Your Portfolio

Diary, Newsletter, Research

For the first time in 40 years, the number of foreign students applying for American colleges and universities is declining.

The drop is particularly noticeable at University of California, Berkeley, where Asian students account for about 10% of incoming freshmen. This is turning the Golden State's education budget upside-down, because foreigners pay almost triple the tuition of in-state residents, some $41,942 a year for the 2018-2019 school year.

Trump's China bashing has been widely reported throughout the Middle Kingdom, scaring away prospective applicants.

Who wants to attend school in a country at war with the homeland - trade or the shooting kind?

So has the upturn in attacks in the US on minorities, be they religious, ethnic, national, or otherwise.

Trump certainly made that attitude crystal with his attempted immigration bans, now blocked by the courts.

Students are worried they will be physically attacked, or deported by an aggressive immigration department. That is if they can even get into the country in the first place.

It isn't just California schools that are getting hit. Institutions of higher learning across the nation are reporting similar drawdowns.

Foreign students are instead applying to British and European schools, or not going abroad at all to save money.

If this sorry trend continues, it will cause substantial damage to the American education system, the US economy as a whole, US influence abroad, and the US dollar (UUP).

Higher education has grown into a gigantic service industry for America, with a massively positive impact on our balance of payments, generating an impact on the world far beyond the dollar amounts involved.

According to the nonprofit Institute of International Education, there are 819,644 foreign students in the US today.

This combined student body pays an average out-of-state tuition of $25,000 a year each totaling some $24 billion. The positive impact on the US balance of payments and the US dollar exchange rate is huge.

China is far and away the dominant origin of these students, accounting for 235,597.

South Korea and India take the No. 2 and No. 3 slots, thanks to the generous scholarships provided by their home governments. Saudi Arabia and Brazil are showing the fastest growth rates.

A fortunate few, backed by endowed chairs and buildings financed by wealthy and eager parents, land places at prestigious universities such as Harvard, Princeton, and Yale.

The top destinations of foreign students are the University of Southern California in Los Angeles, CA, the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Indiana's Perdue University, and New York University, with each of these claiming 9,000 foreign students.

However, the overwhelming majority enroll in the provinces in a thousand rural state universities and junior colleges of which most of us have never heard.

Many of these schools now have diligent admissions officers scouring the Chinese hinterlands looking for new applicants.

A college degree once was a uniquely American privilege. In 1974 the US led the world, with 24% of the population getting a sheepskin.

Today, it has fallen to 16th, with 28% completing a four-year program, lagging countries such as South Korea, Canada, and Japan.

The financial windfall has enabled once sleepy little schools to build themselves into world-class institutions of higher learning, with 30,000 or more students.

They boast state-of-the-art facilities, much to the joy of local residents and budget-constrained state education officials.

Furthermore, the overwhelming leadership of education industry is steadily Americanizing the global establishment.

I can't tell you how many times over the decades I have run into the Persian Gulf sovereign fund manager who went to Florida State, the Asian CEO who attended Cal State Hayward, or the African finance minister who fondly recalled rooting for the Kansas State Wildcats.

Remember the recently ousted president of Egypt, Mohamed Morsi? He was a former classmate of mine at the University of Southern California. Go Trojans! Do you think he was singing "Fight on For Old SC" in his jail cell?

Those who constantly bemoan the impending fall of the Great American Empire can take heart by merely looking inland at these impressive degree factories. These students are not clamoring to get into universities in Beijing, Moscow, or Tokyo.

Not a few marry and permanently settle in the US, while many others take their American brides home. Saudi Arabia is home to some 50,000 such wives, who had to agree to sharia law and give up driving to obtain resident permits.

It also explains why the dollar is so strong in the face of absolutely gigantic, structural trade deficits.

When a foreign student pays tuition to a US school, it is treated as an export of a service in terms of the US balance of payments, much like a car or an airplane, our country's largest exports.

Rising exports mean that more dollars are staying home and fewer are going abroad, strengthening the value of the greenback.

And $24 billion and change offsets a lot of imports of cheap electronics, clothing, and toys from China.

The US has plenty of capacity to expand this trade in services. More than 70% of foreign students are concentrated in just 200 of the country's 4,000 colleges.

The University of California has blazed a path that many other cash-strapped institutions are certain to follow. During the financial crisis, the world's greatest public university saw two back-to-back 40% budget cuts from Sacramento.

So, it made up the shortfall by bumping up foreign admissions from 5% to 10%, largely from Asia. They must pay $38,000 a year in tuition, compared to $18,000 for in-state residents.

What is the upshot of all of this for the locals? It is now a lot harder to get an "A" in Math at UC Berkeley.

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/Graduating-picture-story-3-e1523312478250.jpg 200 300 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2018-04-10 01:06:452018-04-10 01:06:45How America's Plunging Education Surplus Will Damage Your Portfolio
MHFTR

March 22, 2018

Diary, Newsletter

Global Market Comments
March 22, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(THE FED SIGNALS HALF SPEED AHEAD),
(TLT), (UUP), (FXE), (FXY), (FB),
(WHY YOU WILL LOSE YOUR JOB IN THE NEXT FIVE YEARS, AND WHAT TO DO ABOUT IT)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2018-03-22 01:08:052018-03-22 01:08:05March 22, 2018
MHFTR

Fed Signals Half Speed Ahead

Diary, Newsletter

OK, the number is out!

The Fed just raised interest rates by 25 basis points, taking the cost of overnight money for the big banks to a 1.50%-1.75% range.

The boiling frog analogy comes to mind. Keep raising the temperature so slowly you don't notice it until your portfolio eventually gets cooked.

I believe we have two years of quarter point rises ahead of us like clockwork. This will invert the yield curve in a year, meaning that short term interest rates will exceed the 10-year US Treasury bond, now at 2.87%.

A bear market in stocks ALWAYS follows in six to 12 months. So, make hay while the sun shines, because this bull is rapidly becoming a short-dated option, with only a year or more life left to it.

How could I be wrong? Inflation accelerates, forcing our august central banks to raise rates in one shot by 50 basis points instead of the expected 25.

That would really set the cat among the pigeons, and trigger our next Dow 1,000 point down day.

My long-term economic forecast is still holding water that the benefits of the tax cuts will be entirely offset by rising interest rates and costs, keeping GDP growth at 2.5%...and then to zero.

The unfolding global trade war may also take down global growth and bring forward the next bear market and recession by months, if not a full year. Watch those headlines!

At the end of the day, we will be left with zero economic growth (a recession), higher interest rates, and A LOT more debt, both at the personal and the national level, and naturally exploding deficits everywhere.

That certainly is how the foreign exchange market is reading it, which completely savaged the greenback today. The dollar (UUP) got slaughtered against the Euro (FXE) and the Japanese Yen (FXY). Bonds actually rose on the news, which is why I'm out of that market.

It all works for me, as there will be more trading opportunities playing out in this scenario than pimples at a high school prom.

The biggest imbalance in the current tax policy is allowing multinationals to bring trillions of dollars home by paying minimal tax.

The overwhelming majority of these are big technology companies, meaning that the money is coming back here in the San Francisco Bay Area, causing local asset prices to explode.

I just received a letter from a local real estate broker telling me that the value of my home has risen by 27% in the past year to $5 million, and that now is the best time in history TO SELL!

They may be right.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2018-03-22 01:07:422018-03-22 01:07:42Fed Signals Half Speed Ahead
DougD

Will ?Brexit? Cause the Next Recession?

Diary, Newsletter

Economists around the world have been scanning the horizon with their high powered Zeiss binoculars in search of the cause of the next global recession.

It has been a conundrum of the first order because a recession has NEVER taken place in the face of LOW interest rates and LOW oil prices.

However, we may have just found the trigger.

The possible impending departure of the United Kingdom from the European community has cataclysmic implications for economies everywhere.

We?ll know for sure when the referendum is held on June 23.

Yikes! I?ll be in England then!

The move is being driven by the same factors present in the American Republican Party presidential nomination race.

Working class Brits have lost jobs to a tidal wave of immigrants from the rest of the EC, whose common passports allow unfettered access to Old Blighty.

Take a weekend trip to London, and chances are that the desk clerk is from Poland, the porter is from Croatia, the waitress is from Italy, and the cleaning ladies are from Spain and Greece.

Actual Englishmen are to be found only in distant suburbs, or in unemployment offices.

The recent influx of immigrants from the Middle East has also placed a massive strain on the country?s social services resources.

Visit your local neighborhood National Health GP, and you will share the waiting room with foreign refugees missing arms or legs, or bearing near fatal combat injuries. It?s almost like visiting a wartime MASH unit.

Net net, the view is that EC membership is costing England jobs and money, probably in the billions of pounds per year.

As with the US, the populist view is at odds with the economic reality.

While the UK is a net contributor to the Brussels budget, that misses the point. It is greatly outweighed by the additional economic growth generated by EC membership.

Goods flow freely, duty free between all 23 member countries.

A manufacturer in Birmingham, Leeds, or Manchester doesn?t think twice about jumping on the Channel train to call on customers in Paris, Munich, or Copenhagen.

I often sit next to them during my summer continental travels and also get an update on whatever business they may be in.

A British departure would take nearly 20 years of business integration and dump it into the dustbin of history.

That would be a crushing loss for the British economy, which would lose much of the nearly ?200 billion pounds worth of exports it sent to the EC in 2015. These exports have grown at an impressive 3.6% a year for the past 15 years.

It would also deliver a fatal blow to the City of London, the financial center for all of Europe and one of its largest employers.

I can see the dominoes fall from here.

Europe would lose a similar amount of trade with the UK, taking a chunk out of GDP growth there.

A weak Europe brings a stumbling China, which relies on the continent as its largest customer (yes, even bigger than the US). And a wobbling China will certainly torpedo US exports, increasing volatility in our own financial markets.

In fact, the EC is the world?s largest economic entity. It is hard to see trouble there not spreading everywhere.

The turmoil is already easily visible in the foreign exchange markets. The British pound (FXB) has suffered a gut churning 10.5% nosedive over the past four months to a new ten year low. It has also smothered in the crib the recent rally in the Euro (FXE).

A newly resurgent dollar (UUP) is starting to once again cast a shadow over US multinational earnings.

It seems like the UK is determined to shrink to a smaller country, either by hook or crook.? Only last year, Scotland mounted a campaign to split off from the UK, an effort that eventually failed.

However, it is another one of those cases of being careful what you wish for.

How do you spell ?GLOBAL RECESSION??

Caveat Emptor

EU Trade

Level of Annual GDP

FXB

FXE
UUP

Man with BinocularsI Don't See Anything Yet

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/Man-with-Binoculars-e1456964153541.png 186 400 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2016-03-03 01:07:482016-03-03 01:07:48Will ?Brexit? Cause the Next Recession?
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Bring Back QE!

Diary, Newsletter

You wanted clarity in understanding the current state of play in the global financial markets? Here?s your #$%&*#!! clarity.

You should expect nothing less for this ridiculously expensive service of mine.

But maybe that is the cabin fever talking, now that I have been cooped up in my Tahoe lakefront estate for a week, engaging in deep research and grinding out the Trade Alerts, devoid of any human contact whatsoever.

Or, maybe it?s the high altitude.

I did have one visitor.

A black bear broke into my trash cans last light and spread garbage all over the back yard. He then left his calling card, a giant poop, in my parking space.

Judging by the size of the turds, I would say he was at least 600 pounds. This is why you never take out the trash at night in the High Sierras.

Ah, the delights of Mother Nature!

We certainly live in a confusing, topsy-turvy, tear your hair out world this year. Good news is bad news, bad news worse, and no news the worst of all.

The biggest under performing week of the year for stocks is then followed by the best. Net net, we are absolutely at a zero movement, and lots of clients complaining about poor returns on their investment.

I tallied the year-on-year performance of every major assets class and this is what I found.

+16% - Hedged Japanese Stocks (DXJ)
+15% - Hedged European stocks (HEDJ)
+13% - US dollar basket (UUP)
+10% - My house
0% - Stocks (SPY)
0% -? bonds (TLT)
-5% - Japanese Yen (FXY)
-11% - Euro (FXE)
-12% - Gold (GLD)
-18% -? Oil (USO)
-27% -? Commodities (CU)
-27% - Natural Gas (UNG)

There are some sobering conclusions to be drawn from these numbers.

There were very few opportunities to make money this year. If you were short energy, commodities, and foreign currencies, you did very well.

Followers of the Mad hedge Fund Trader can?t help but know and love these ticker symbols. They?ll notice that our long plays were found among the asset classes with the best performance, while our short bets populated the losers.

The problem with that is most financial advisors are not permitted to place client funds in the sort of inverse or leveraged ETF?s that most benefit from these kinds of moves (like the (YCS), (EUO), and (DUG)).

That left them reading about the success of others in the newspapers, even when they knew these trends were unfolding (through reading this letter).

How frustrating is that?

What was one of my best investments of 2015?

My San Francisco home, which has the additional benefit in that I get to live in it, have a place to stash all my junk, and claim big tax deductions (depreciated home office space, business use of phone, blah, blah, blah).

Of course, I do have the advantage of living in the middle of one of the greatest technology and IPO booms of all time. Every time one of these ?sharing? companies goes public, the value of my home rises by a few hundred grand.

The real problem here is that investing since the end of the Federal Reserve?s quantitative easing program ended a year ago has become a real uphill battle.

While the government was adding $3.9 trillion in funds to the economy we traders enjoyed one of the greatest free lunches of all time. It made us all look like freakin? geniuses!

Just maintaining their present $3.9 trillion balance sheet, not adding to it, has left almost every asset class dead in the water.

Heaven help us if they ever try to unwind some of that debt!

Janet has promised me that she isn?t going to engage in such monetary suicide.

The Fed is continuing with Ben Bernanke?s plan to run all of their Treasury bond holdings into expiration, even if it takes a decade to achieve this. And with deflation accelerating (see charts below), the need for such a desperate action is remote.

Still, one has to ponder the potential implications.

It all kind of makes my own 43% Trade Alert gain in 2015 look pretty good. But I don?t want to boast too much. That tends to invite bad luck and losses, which I would much rather avoid.

COPPER 11-20-15

GOLD 11-20-15

WTIC 11-20-15

DUG 11-20-15

NATGAS 11-20-15

 

FXY 11-20-15

UUP 11-20-15

Ship - TorpedoedWhat! No QE?

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/Ship-Torpedoed-e1448310356189.jpg 265 400 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2015-11-24 01:08:272015-11-24 01:08:27Bring Back QE!
Page 15 of 17«‹1314151617›»

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