July 31, 2009

Global Market Comments July 31, 2009 Featured Trades: (SPX), (GS), (MS), (KBE) 1) I thought PIMCO co-CEO Mohamed El-Erian hit the nail on the head when he said that the July stock market rally was nothing more than a sugar high. Skyrocketing unemployment does not create new demand. We are going nowhere without a real housing recovery, which is impossible with gun shy … [Read more...]

July 30, 2009

Global Market Comments July 30, 2009 Featured Trades: (SPX), (DOW), ($XAD), ($CDW), ($NZD), (COPPER), (LUMBER), (WHEAT), (NATURAL GAS), (GOLD) 1) OK, so they didn't mention the mosquitoes, the poison oak, or the guy snoring in the next tent on the website. But I'd rather put up with all of that than the absolute dearth of trading opportunities I faced on my … [Read more...]

July 24, 2009

Global Market Comments July 24, 2009 Featured Trades: (SPX), ($INDU), (NASDAQ), (DO), (JAPAN), (CALIFORNIA) Note to Subscribers: The Diary of a Mad hedge Fund Trader will not be published on July 27, 28, and 29. It's time to clear out the cobwebs and restore my animal spirits. These days will be added on to the end of your subscription period. I knew it was time to take a … [Read more...]

July 23, 2009

Global Market Comments July 23, 2009 Featured Trades: (FCX), (COPPER), (CAT)   1) One of my favorite stocks, and one of the great 'tells' on the state of the global economy is Freeport McMoRan (FCX), the world's largest copper and gold producer. CEO, Richard Adkerson, says it's all about 'China, China, China', which has been frenetically stimulating its economy … [Read more...]

July 22, 2009

Global Market Comments July 22, 2009 Featured Trades: (SPX) 1) Let me tell you that I, and the rest of the hedge fund industry, are highly suspicious of the global stock market rally that has ensued over the past week. Companies lowered earnings expectations so far they were easy to beat, and could be achieved by laying off a few more workers. The question this … [Read more...]

July 21, 2009

Global Market Comments July 21, 2009 Emerging Markets Special Issue Featured Trades: (HONG KONG), ($HSI), (EEM), KOREA), ($KOSPI), (PLD)   1)The upside breakout to a new 10 month high of 19,500 in Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index last night, up 70% from its March low,  could be a signal for better emerging market performance everywhere. I have always viewed the … [Read more...]

July 20, 2009

Global Market Comments July 20, 2009 Featured Trades: (GE), (GS), (SPX), (FXI), (EEM), (TBT), (USO), (DBA)   1) China's National Bureau of Statistics announced the data for the only country that matters right now, showing that Q2 GDP growth came in at 7.9%, much better than expected. The Middle Kingdom's gold and foreign currency reserves soared to a new record … [Read more...]

July 17, 2009

Global Market Comments July 17, 2009 Featured Trades: (SPX), (GOLD), (GLD)   1) The 'head and shoulders' is off the table, and now the S&P 500 is looking at a double top at 950. This is why I hate listening to technical analysts, and why they shop at Men's Warehouse and drive Hyundai's instead of Bentley's (see my earlier piece ). Generally, technical … [Read more...]

July 16, 2009

Global Market Comments July 16, 2009 Featured Trades: (INTC), (ORCL), (HPQ), (IBM), (MSFT), (INDIA), (SENSEX), ($BSE), (AGU), (MON), (MOO), (POT) 1)  Intel's blowout earnings yesterday made crystal clear who is going to be buttering our bread for the next few decades (see income statement). More than 80% of their earnings came from foreign sources, far … [Read more...]

July 15, 2009

Global Market Comments July 15, 2009 Featured Trades: (SPX), (GOLD), (BAC), (WFC), (GS), (CVX), (XOM)   1) When I turned on my computer this morning and saw the S&P 500 futures up 40 from yesterday's low, I knew it was time to fix the flat on my kid's bicycle, trim the hedges, repair the torn screen window, and unclog the downstairs toilet. The worst thing … [Read more...]

July 14, 2009

Global Market Comments July 14, 2009 Featured Trades: (SPX), (JAPAN), (CRUDE), (CVX) Happy Bastille Day!   1) Yesterday, I showed you Arthur Hill's elegant, technical, well thought out analysis of the S&P 500's prospects. Below, please find my inelegant, non technical, graphical rending of a dead cat bounce. Any stocks dependent on the consumer … [Read more...]

July 13, 2009

Global Market Comments July 13, 2009 Featured Trades: (SPX), (NATURAL GAS), (IRAQ), (MO)   1) Every once in a while I stumble across a chart which is so clear, so vivid, so unequivocal in its implications, that it lifts the investment fog. This is that chart. Drawn up by stockchart.com's Arthur Hill, it shows that we are going to spend the rest of our summer … [Read more...]

July 10, 2009

Global Market Comments July 10, 2009 Featured Trades: (TBT), (TLT), (SPX)   1) The incredible melt up in Treasuries yesterday tells you that traders are dumping the global reflation trade like a hot potato. The ten year yield spiked up to a high of 3.28%, down from 4% only a month ago. Yesterday's auction of ten year Treasury notes saw an amazing bid to cover … [Read more...]

July 9, 2009

Global Market Comments July 9, 2009 Featured Trades: (SPX), (EURO/YEN), (GS) 1) If anyone is wondering what that foul odor is, it's the sushi that hit the fan. Even the most obstinate,  Kool Aid drinking perma bulls now concede the head and shoulders is in on the S&P 500. That great barometer of global risk taking, the Euro/yen cross, didn't just break … [Read more...]

July 8, 2009

Global Market Comments July 8, 2009 Featured Trades: (OIL), (SPX), (EEM), (DBA), (GLD), (XEU), (XJY), (VIX), (SDS), (DRR), (NATURAL GAS), (WHEAT), (CORN)   1) I am about to do you a huge favor. You can clear all of the stock tickers and widgets off of your computer desktop. The only thing you need to watch now are the wild, gut wrenching moves in oil. Everything … [Read more...]

July 7, 2009

Global Market Comments July 7, 2009 Featured Trades: (CRUDE), ($WTIC), (EURO), (FSLR)   1) The stage is now set for the dollar. With the US 20 months into a recession, it's just a matter of time before the Feds pull us back from zero interest rates. With the ECB late to the funeral, European Central Bank president, Jean-Claude Trichet, last week reaffirmed his … [Read more...]

July 6, 2009

Global Market Comments July 6, 2009 Featured Trades: (SPX), (GMGMQ), (T-M), (HMC), (IRAN)   1) OK, so I don't really open beer bottles with my teeth and do my own tattoos. But my call that the 'golden cross' in the S&P 500 on June 23 was a bogus one turned out to be a bulls eye, and the abuse I piled on the analysts who predicted an upside breakout was richly … [Read more...]

July 2, 2009

Global Market Comments July 2, 2009 Featured Trades: (BA), (COAL) 1) I spent the evening with Dr. Janet Yellen, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. She thinks that thanks to the government's tax cuts and spending programs, we will be out of the recession by the end of this year. After massive inventory liquidation, the auto industry in … [Read more...]

July 1, 2009

Global Market Comments July 1, 2009 Featured Trades: (VIX), ($BVSP), (RSX), ($BSE), (FXI), (EEM), ($KOSPI), (TBT), (JNK), (PHB), (HYG), (FCX), (X), (CHK), ($XEU) 1) Equities: UP The collapse of the volatility index (VIX) is telling us that the horrific, gut churning, 10% daily moves are over. But equities are no longer a US play. Extracting the insane leverage of the … [Read more...]