Global Market Comments
September 26, 2018
Fiat Lux
SPECIAL CAR ISSUE
Featured Trade:
(SAY GOODBYE TO THAT GAS GUZZLER),
(GM), (F), (TSLA), (GOOGL), (AAPL)
Global Market Comments
September 26, 2018
Fiat Lux
SPECIAL CAR ISSUE
Featured Trade:
(SAY GOODBYE TO THAT GAS GUZZLER),
(GM), (F), (TSLA), (GOOGL), (AAPL)
Mad Hedge Technology Letter
September 26, 2018
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(DID SIRIUS OPEN UP PANDORA'S BOX?),
(SPOT), (P), (SIRI), (AAPL), (AMZN)
In a flurry of deals, the music streaming industries consolidation is powering on as some of the industry’s biggest players have completed new acquisitions.
Is there a new King of the Castle?
Not yet.
In any case, the shakeout still allows Spotify to claim itself as the No. 1 company in the music streaming industry, but Apple (AAPL) and Sirius XM (SIRI) have gained.
There is still work to be done for the trailing duo but it is a step in the right direction.
Apple’s deal with Shazam, which just gained approval, was consummated last December, but was held up by European regulators over antitrust problems.
The Europeans have clamped down on American tech companies of late forcing them to play nicer after decades of running riot inside the region.
The Shazam app analyzes then pinpoints titles from music, movies, and television shows based on a brief sample through the device’s microphone.
If your neighbors are blasting the tunes upstairs at a Friday night shindig and you want to find out what song is causing you to lose sleep at night, just turn on your microphone and upload it into Shazam.
Shazam will tell you exactly the song’s title and the artist’s name.
Even dating back to 2013, this app was among the top 10 most popular apps in the world.
In 2018, Shazam has carved out a user base of more than 150 million monthly average users (MAU) and growing.
Shazam is used more than 20 million times per day.
An opportunity lies in urging Shazam users to then adopt Apple music.
Interestingly enough, to upgrade the quality of the app’s functionality, Apple is stripping away digital ads in Shazam.
Apple has made an unrelenting attempt to avoid introducing lower grade tech that could potentially taint its clean-cut brand.
Recently enough, film producers have complained that Apple is completely averse to any content with gratuitous violence, excessive drug use, and candid sex scenes.
Apple wants to cultivate and sell its pristine image.
Digital ads also fail to make the cut.
This spotless image boosts Apple’s pricing power along with the high quality of products that has seen Apple retain its place as the producer of the best smartphone in the world.
Other smart phone brands are still in catchup mode with a brand image significantly inferior to Apple’s.
And Apple CEO Tim Cook isn’t even interested in monetizing Apple music, and is more focused on “doing the right thing” for it.
Yes, the job of every company is to be in the black, but the No. 1 responsibility for a modern tech company is to grow and grow profusely.
Tech investors pay for growth, period.
As investors have seen with Netflix, companies can always raise prices after seizing market share because of the stranglehold on eyeballs inside a walled garden.
That potent formula has been the bread and butter of powerful tech companies of late.
Spotify is a captive of the music industry, of which it is entirely dependent for its source of goods, in this case songs.
At the same time, the music industry has fought tooth and nail to destroy the likes of Spotify, which benefits immensely from distributing the content it creates.
History is littered with failed music streaming services outgunned in the courtroom. Pandora (P) is the biggest public name out there whose share price has tanked over the long haul.
Pandora has created a proprietary algorithm offering song recommendations to listeners, but it is more or less an online music streaming app heavily reliant on a freemium pricing model with ads.
Sirius XM Holdings, a satellite radio company, signaled its intent in the music streaming business by taking a 19% in Pandora’s business last year.
It has followed that up now by completing a full takeover of the Oakland, California company for $3.5 billion.
This move adds 75 million users to its 36 million usership on Sirius and, in my view, the main objective is an eyeball grab to buy more listeners dragging them into its walled garden.
To triple a user base instantly to 75 million listeners is a boon for Sirius, which now has the firepower to legitimately compete with Spotify.
Pandora has been shopping itself around for the past two years, and companies such as Facebook were whispered to be eyeing this company.
Facebook chose to focus on developing dating and romance functions on its platform, and has mainly ignored the music streaming possibilities.
More critically, it allows Sirius to diversify out of the car space where satellite radio is predominantly used.
As much as Americans love to drive, the home is where they rest, and sleep, and Pandora will unlock a path into the home of listeners.
Synergies between home audio through Pandora, and car audio through Sirius should be evident over time.
The music streaming industry, such as the television streaming industry, has become fiercely competitive as of late. And this is a prudent move for Sirius to buy a new customer base at the same time as moving into the home.
The trend of tech companies penetrating the home and making it as smart as possible is revived constantly.
This piece of news isn’t as earth-shattering as Amazon’s (AMZN) smart home product launch event, but nonetheless indicates another leg up in competition for fresh user growth and its data.
This M&A surge is occurring amid a backdrop of the music industry’s obsession to exterminate Spotify and the other music streaming companies.
They are on a mission to force up the royalties these Internet giants must pay to pad their pockets and protect their interests.
Royalties are the music streaming companies’ main cost, and for Spotify, these royalty payments eat up 78% of total revenue.
But that does not mean Spotify is a bad company or even a bad stock.
Every company has its share of pitfalls. Throw in the mix that Amazon (AMZN) and Apple have music streaming services that do not even need to make a profit, and you will understand why some might be wary about putting new money to work in music streaming business stocks.
The primary reason that Spotify shares will outperform for the foreseeable future is because it is the preeminent music streaming platform.
Also, there is favorable latitude to make way toward the goal of monetization, and ample space to improve gross margins.
Global streaming revenue growth has gone ballistic as the migration to mobile devices and cord cutting has exacerbated the monetization prospects of the music industry.
Streaming revenue was a shade under $2 billion in 2013, and continued to post a growth trajectory of more than 40% each year since.
As it stands now, total global streaming revenue registered just a tick under $7 billion per year in 2017, and that was an improvement of 41.1% from 2016.
The choice among choices is Spotify in 2018.
The company was dogged by many years of famous artists removing their proprietary content from the platform citing unfavorable terms.
Eventually, almost all artists have relented and reinstalled their music on Spotify. They depend on alternative moneymaking avenues to compensate for lack of royalties, mainly live music.
Spotify has seized even more industry power with its new function of completely bypassing the music industry altogether, by offering a way for aspiring artists to directly upload music content onto its online platform.
Crushing the middleman has been a widespread theme in the tech industry for the past few decades, and the music industry is no different.
As technology has hyper-accelerated, the cost of producing music has plummeted giving access to just about anyone who has any talent.
No need to rent a sound studio for thousands of dollars per hour anymore in West Hollywood, and the music industry knows it.
It could be possible that the next cohort of viral artists will never cough over a dime to the music industry, and the bulk of the profits will be collected by a music streaming titan that distributes their content online.
How does Spotify make money?
It earns its crust of bread through paid subscriptions but lures in eyeballs using an ad-supported free version of its platform.
Naturally, the paid version is ad-less, and this subscription is around $5 to $15 per month.
In the second quarter, Spotify’s paid subscription volume surpassed 83 million, a sharp uptick of 40% YOY.
Ad-supported users came in at more than 101 million, even under the damage that General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) did to western tech companies.
The ad-supported subscribers rose 23% YOY, and the paid version expects between 85 million to 88 million paid subscribers in the third quarter.
Many of the new paid subscribers are converts from its free model.
Spotify is poised to increase revenue between 20% to 30% for the rest of 2018.
The rise of Spotify's developing data division could extract an additional $580 million of revenue in 2023, making up 2% of total revenue.
When Spotify did go public, the robust price action was with conviction, making major investors - such as China’s Tencent, which possess a 9.1% stake and Tiger Global Management, which owns 7.2% - happy stakeholders.
In the last quarter’s earnings report, Spotify CFO Barry McCarthy reiterated the company’s goal to push gross margins from the mid-20% range to “gross margins in the 30% to 35% range.”
A jump in gross margins would go a long way in making Spotify appear more profitable, and that is the imminent goal right now.
Bask in the glow of the growth sweet spot Spotify finds itself in right now.
For the time being, the music division of Amazon and Apple are just a side note, even with Apple’s purchase of Shazam.
But Apple is vigorously improving its service products as its software and services segment moves from strength to strength, but that doesn’t particularly mean Apple Music.
Investors must sit on their hands to see how Sirius’s acquisition of Pandora plays out. These are by no means two extraordinary companies, and a major overhaul is required to make these two mediocre companies into one overperformer.
If you had to choose among Sirius, Pandora, or Spotify, then cautiously leg into a few shares of Spotify to test the waters.
Do you want to get in on the ground floor of another major new trend?
Well, here’s another new trend. Get this one right and your retirement funds should multiple like rabbits.
There have been some pretty amazing announcements by governments lately.
The United Kingdom has banned the use of gasoline-powered engines by 2040.
China is considering doing the same by 2035.
And now the State of California is targeting 100% alternative energy use by 2040. That’s only 22 years away.
The only unknown is what such a planned obsolescence program will look like, and how soon it will be implemented.
With 20% of the U.S. car market, don’t take the Golden State’s ruminations lightly.
California was the first state to require safety glass, seat belts, and catalytic converters, and the other 49 eventually had to follow. Some 20% of the market is just too big to ignore.
The death of the car is now upon us, and it is still early, very early.
This is a very big deal.
Earlier in my lifetime, car production directly and indirectly accounted for about one-third of the U.S. economy.
Much of the growth during our earlier Golden Ages, in the 1920s and the 1950s, were driven by a never-ending cycle of upgrades of our favorite form of transportation, and the countless ancillary products and services needed to support them. Tail fins, radios, and tons of chrome assured you always had to have the next new model.
Today, 253 million automobiles and trucks prowl America’s roads, about half the world’s total, with an average age of 11.4 years.
The demise of this crucial industry started during the 2008 crash, when (GM) and Chrysler (owned by Fiat) went bankrupt. Only more conservatively run, family owned Ford (F) survived on its own.
The government stepped in with massive bailouts. That was the cheaper option for the Feds, as the cost of benefits for an entire unemployed industry was far greater than the cost of the companies absorbed.
If it hadn’t done so, the auto industry would have decamped for a new base near the technology hubs in California, and today would be a decade closer to their futures than they are now.
And remember, the government made billions of dollars of profits from its brief foray into the auto industry as an investor. It was one of the best returns on investment in history in major size.
I’ll breakout the major directions the industry is now taking. Hint: It doesn’t have much to do with traditional metal bashing.
The Car as a Peripheral
The important thing about a car today is not the car, but the various doodads, doohickeys, gizmos, and gadgets they stick in them.
In this category you can include 24/7 4G wireless, full Internet access, mapping software, artificial intelligence, and learning programs.
(GM) is now installing more than 100 microprocessors in its vehicles to control and monitor various functions.
Good luck doing your own tune-ups.
The Car as a Service
When you think about it, automobile ownership is a wildly inefficient use of capital. It is usually a family’s second largest expense, after their home, running $30,000 to $80,000.
It then sits unused in garages or public parking for 96% to 98% of the day. Insurance, maintenance, and liability costs can be off the charts.
What if your car was used 24/7, as is machinery in well-run industrial plants? Your cost drops by 96% to 98% to the point where it is almost free.
The sharing economy is the way to accomplish this.
We are already seeing several start-ups attempting to achieve this in major U.S. cities, such as Zipcar, Car2Go, Getaround, RelayRides, and City CarShare.
What happens to conventional car companies when consumers shift from ownership to sharing? Demand plunges by 96% to 98%.
Perhaps that is why auto shares (GM), (F) have performed so abysmally this year relative to technology and the main market.
Self-Driving Technology
This is the hottest development area in the industry, with Apple (AAPL), Alphabet (GOOG), and the big European carmakers committing thousands of engineers.
Let’s say your car is now comfortably driving you to work, allowing you to read the morning papers and catch up on your email. Or maybe you’re lazy and would rather watch the season finale of Game of Thrones.
What else is possible?
How about if, instead of parking, your car drops you off, saving that exorbitant fee.
Then it joins Uber, picking up local riders and paying for its own way. It then dutifully returns to pick you up at your office when it’s time to go home.
Since the crash rate for computers is vastly lower than for humans, car insurance rates will collapse, gutting that industry.
Ditto for life insurance, as 35,000 people a year will no longer die in car crashes.
Half of all emergency room visits are the result of car accidents, so that business disappears too, dramatically shrinking health care costs in the process.
I have been letting my new Tesla S-1 drive me since last year, and I can assure you that the car can drive better than I can, especially at night.
What better way to get home after I have downed a bottle of Caymus cabernet at a city restaurant?
Driverless electric cars are totally silent, increasing the value of land near freeways.
Nor do they require much maintenance, as they have so few moving parts. Exit the car repair industry.
I could go on and on, but you get the general idea.
For more on the topic, please read “Test Driving Tesla's Self Driving Technology” by clicking here.
Virtual Reality
After 30 years of inadequate infrastructure budgets, trying to get into any America city center is a complete nightmare.
Only last week, a cattle truck turned over on the Golden Gate Bridge, bringing traffic to a halt. Fortunately, a cowboy traveling to a nearby rodeo was able to unload his horse and lasso the errant critters (no, it wasn’t me!).
Even if you get into the city, you will be greeted by a $40 tab for a parking space. Hopefully, no one will smash your windows and steal your laptop (happened to me last year).
Why bother?
Thirty years ago, teleconferencing services pitched themselves as replacing the airplane.
Today, we are taking the next step, using Skype and GoToMeeting to conduct even local meetings, as we do at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader.
Virtual reality is clearly the next step, providing a 3D, 360 degree experience that makes you feel like you and your products are actually there.
Better to leave that car in the garage where it can get a top up on its charge. BART is cheaper anyway, when it runs.
New Materials
We are probably five years away from adopting the carbon fiber technology now used in the aircraft industry for mass-market cars. Carbon has one-tenth the weight of steel, with five times the strength.
The next great leap forward for electric cars won’t be through better batteries. It will come through a 70% reduction of the mass of a car, tripling ranges with existing technology.
San Francisco Becomes the Car Capital of the World
This will definitely NOT happen, as sky-high rents assure that the city by the bay will never attract large, labor-intensive industries.
Instead, the industry will develop much as the one for smartphones. The high value-added aspects, design and programming, will stay in California.
The assembly of the chassis, the body, and the rest of the vehicle will be best done in low-cost, tax-free states with a lot of land, such as Texas and Nevada.
What will happen to Detroit? It has already become a favored destination of new venture capital financial start-ups - the cost of offices and housing is virtually free.
“You're right, we're not in it for the money,” said Apple CEO Tim Cook when asked about Apple Music in 2018.
“A 5% improvement in customer retention leads to a 95% improvement in the profitability for most companies,” said SAP CEO Bill McDermott.
Mad Hedge Hot Tips
September 25, 2018
Fiat Lux
The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)
1) Share Buybacks Are Booming, hitting $189 billion in Q2, up 60% YOY, the most in history. At this rate the stock market will completely disappear in 20 years. Shortage of supply means prices can only go up. Click here.
2) NAFTA to Move Ahead Without Canada. That means Congress can’t approve it. Start stockpiling that maple syrup! But markets won’t care. Click here.
3) Oil Goes Higher, with Iran threatening to close the Strait of Hormuz, as they have done for 50 years. Click here.
4) Copper Hits a Two-Month High. With the biggest one day gain in five years. Is the bear market in commodities finally over? Buy Freeport-McMoRan (FCX), the world’s largest producer. Click here.
5) The U.S. Dollar Keeps Falling (UUP). You usually don’t see a weak currency going into a rate rise. Buy the rumor, sell the news? Click here.
Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:
(AI AND THE NEW HEALTH CARE),
(GOOGL), (XLP), (XLV), (MRK), (BMY), (PFE),
(MONDAY, OCTOBER 15, 2018, ATLANTA, GA,
GLOBAL STRATEGY LUNCHEON),
(AMAZON’S HOME INVASION),
(AMZN), (GOOGL), (HBB), (PG)
While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more
Global Market Comments
September 25, 2018
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(AI AND THE NEW HEALTH CARE),
(GOOGL), (XLP), (XLV), (MRK), (BMY), (PFE),
(MONDAY, OCTOBER 15, 2018, ATLANTA, GA,
GLOBAL STRATEGY LUNCHEON)
Mad Hedge Technology Letter
September 25, 2018
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(AMAZON’S HOME INVASION),
(AMZN), (GOOGL), (HBB), (PG)
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