Mad Hedge Technology Letter
June 14, 2021
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(THE TRUTH ABOUT TECH IN POST-COVID)
(WORK FROM HOME)
Mad Hedge Technology Letter
June 14, 2021
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(THE TRUTH ABOUT TECH IN POST-COVID)
(WORK FROM HOME)
The pandemic and technology are precisely why the U.S. economy has regained its golden crown at the top of the global economy and will create some distance in 2021.
I’ll explain why.
Sure, this sounds off considering that many viral new stories published these days are at the extreme limits of everything from society, politics, business, entertainment, and the list goes on.
But the truth is, instead of a handful of U.S. coastal cities mopping up the capital and opportunities, the effort for U.S. accelerated growth and the network effects juxtaposed to it, have spread their tentacles across the country.
To understand how the U.S. has gotten on, we must first look across the Pacific and Atlantic at how other “rich” countries have navigated the pandemic and inoculation effort.
Work time is Face time 24/7 and shut up about anything else or you can jump off the office roof.
That’s me welcoming you to the land of the rising sun — Japan.
Crazily enough, even in a pandemic spiraling out of control in an aging society, business conducted in-person is still more guaranteed than anything else.
Work from home?
Are you crazy? This is still a country that relies on fax machines and a mountain of paperwork to get things done.
The recent “modernization” effort came up with taking away the ink-based wooden stamp to sign off final contracts, instead, replacing it with ink pen signatures.
Bravo!
That happened last year and essentially is a microcosm of the snail’s rate of change in Japan’s economy. There’s a reason why the Mandarins passed them up so quickly with no fightback.
Tradition dies hard in places like these.
It’s a traditional business culture still run on World War 2 structures with management who grew up in the 1960s still forging the path for Japan Inc.
Japan still pays according to seniority and merit is just a cute term to banter about when talking to your cadre of lowly paid subordinates who are usually disenfranchised and overworked.
Demand for in-person interaction among employees and with external clients and suppliers is especially strong among older and smaller companies.
Considering 99.7% of Japan’s businesses are considered small, or medium-sized, then it pretty much means all of Japan.
What they don’t tell you is, these “meetings” also involve a copious amount of overdrinking, overspending, and incessant smoking to please clients who were born in the 1950s.
This is all in the name to create trust between the two parties.
If you watch snippets of Japanese news feeds over the past 16 months, it seems as if there has been no reduction in foot traffic when the cameras zoom in on main transport hubs.
Your eyes aren’t failing you.
Sadly, Japan just missed its best chance to modernize business practices and the next pandemic might be too far away to offer that next chance for wholesale changes.
Japan will continue its downwards trajectory with a niche specialty in robots while the living standard for the median Japanese person continues to drop precipitously and the graying of the society continues unabated.
If you thought Europe has been better, then yes, you are right. In many instances, remote work was allowed all across Europe during the pandemic, especially for finance jobs that include accounting and financial planning.
But recent surveys show that European management is lusting for a strict 100% in-person work schedule to mitigate cross-border tax problems such as German workers relocating to Poland to take advantage of the lower cost of living and the company ultimately becoming liable for Polish taxes.
The bigger problem with Europe’s economy is that it’s leveraged too much towards global tourism and the government does everything it can to disrupt innovation because of overly bureaucratic structures.
Europe accounts for 50% of the world’s tourist arrivals and is the most visited region in the world, according to UNWTO.
It accounts for 50% of the world’s tourist arrivals and 37% of global tourism receipts, it is the most visited region in the world.
The continent contributed around €1 trillion tourist revenue in 2019 and 18 million tourist jobs and that literally stopped in a heartbeat in March 2020.
These are 18 million jobs that can’t just move to work-from-home.
Instead of developing in-house tech companies, European regulators have sought maneuvers just to tax the U.S. ones to satisfy a thirst for revenue.
Europe, aside from Spotify and a handful of U.K. and Netherlands-based chip manufacturers, don’t have any big-time tech companies.
Remember that these tech companies usually contribute to the lions’ share of earnings growth and profits in the U.S. and China.
Instead of creating these jobs, European workers are mostly servicing U.S. companies from Western European R&D centers like Apple in Germany and offices such as Facebook’s London office.
Chinese companies in Europe like Huawei almost never hire non-Chinese people unless it's some low-level translating work.
At the onset of the pandemic, many New Yorkers loaded up the car, drove down to Florida or even over to Vermont, bought a house sight unseen, and started life anew from scratch.
That is the beauty of a true borderless state business and personal delivering synergies to the local population.
The EU of 27 states certainly is from this utopian seamless state.
I have a close colleague that was hired from a big American energy firm in Prague to an American cybersecurity corporation in Vienna, and he has not been able to file his application for 10 months even though the cities are a few hours train ride away.
Why?
Because the Austrian Embassy in Prague doesn’t process Non-EU citizens’ applications, even though he has a valid residence permit that allows him to work, and he has not been able to physically cross the border to file it directly in Vienna because of Machiavellian border restrictions.
Once filed, this application will take 3-4 months to process, all while he is just a few hours away.
When he finally gets authorization for a new Austrian work permit, he is required by Czech law to give a 10-week resignation notice to his employer.
This was on top of the botched virus roll-out which meant that many European state health systems thought it was a good idea to force citizens and residents alike to pre-register for the vaccine, register again, then make registration based on social security card numbers, and then change the registration interface on the website every 7-10 days.
Only to receive the first vaccine, then be required to wait in line for a whole day to confirm the address the immunity card should be sent to, only to get to the front of the line to find out the many hospitals didn’t upload the proper data into the database.
The excuse for this was that the nurses are too busy giving the vaccine shots.
Then, only to realize that receiving the card in the mail often didn’t happen then going back to the same office to ask if the card has even been mailed out yet, only for them to have no idea where your card is.
And that was just the first vaccine shot!
It’s not surprising that many Europeans in droves are skipping their 2nd shot because of the ridiculous bureaucracy involved in getting just 1 done let alone 2.
It’s comical to think that America actually FELL BEHIND others in the past 15 months.
The reality is that the swift recovery from and after the advent of the Pfizer vaccine has just been too powerful and too potent to think that the old world of Europe and Asia with outdated infrastructure and attitudes towards business progressivism can outdo the Yanks.
From my contacts in Europe, there has never been more of a desire to work for a European-based American corporation because they are still viewed as the best option.
And when you realize that many of the U.S. work-from-home initiatives are being transformed into hybrid work cultures with 2-3 days per week of facetime LIKE THEY SHOULD BE, it sure beats my colleague whose Austrian contract explicitly states face time 24/7 is waiting for him in Vienna with his contract crafted by European managers.
At least he is not working in Tokyo.
A JAPANESE LOW-TECH APPROACH STILL PERSISTS IN A BRAVE NEW WORLD!
“The AI technology will keep you out of harm's way. That is why we believe in an AI car that drives for you.” – Said CEO of Nvidia Jensen Huang
Global Market Comments
June 14, 2021
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(MY 20 RULES FOR TRADING FOR 2021)
Mad Hedge Technology Letter
June 11, 2021
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(DON’T FALL INTO THE LORDSTOWN TRAP)
(RIDE), (NKLA), (VLDR), (TSLA)
Lordstown Motors Inc. (RIDE), an EV startup that recently went public, lacks the money to build a debut pickup truck and might go out of business if funding dries up in the next 12 months.
That’s what you get if you go for the “cheap” tech that offers some pipedream of fantasy managed by charlatans.
The company believes that its current level of cash and cash equivalents are not sufficient to complete the development of its electric vehicles and launch the Endurance pickup.
Investors should have seen this coming from a million miles away.
Lordstown went public through a SPAC and numerous have gone through upheaval as analysts critique their business practices.
Some, like Nikola Corp. (NKLA) and Velodyne Lidar Inc. (VLDR), have had their founders ousted.
Lordstown now has balance sheet problems.
In the filing, Lordstown said it has approximately $587 million in cash and an accumulated deficit of $259.7 million as of March 31, after reporting a first-quarter net loss of $125.2 million.
Going public gifted RIDE $675 million, but the company has burned through that quickly.
Let’s run down the list of red flags I have seen pop up at this supposed EV producer.
The company has no revenue and no sellable product, and they have most likely misled investors on both its demand and production capabilities.
The company has consistently pointed to its book of 100,000 pre-orders as proof of insatiable demand for its proposed EV truck.
Lordstown recently announced a 14,000-truck deal from E Squared Energy, supposedly representing $735 million in sales.
But E Squared is based out of a small residential apartment in Texas that doesn’t operate a vehicle fleet.
Another 1,000-truck, $52.5 million order comes from a 2-person startup that operates out of a Regus virtual office with a mailing address at a UPS Store.
Lordstown has thrived off the notion that the faster the pre-orders arrive, the greater investors’ confidence would be in the company and the faster funds would flow in and subsequently lift shares for long enough that management can cash out.
What management has failed to tell us is that these pre-orders are non-binding letters of intent, require $0 as a reservation payment, do not require an actual purchase.
Do I have other gripes about the company?
Yes.
Despite claims that battery packs would be manufactured in-house, the product is definitely not.
Former employees revealed that the company has completed none of its needed testing or validation, including cold-weather testing, durability testing, and Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards (FMVSS) testing required by the NHTSA.
Lordstown only went public in October 2020, but in that brief time, executives and directors have unloaded around $28 million in stock.
It seems awfully plausible that management is unloading stock because they think the company will ultimately fail and the stock will go to 0.
The pre-orders representing over $5 billion in future revenue couldn’t be further from the truth.
So basically this is an EV company out of the mold of Nikola that has no product but tout some marketing gimmicks as empirical evidence that should nudge investors to believe they are on the brink of full-out mass production.
It’s possible no company has ever done just on the basis of hyping up their non-binding, zero dollars down pre-orders and RIDE is still living off of these fumes.
Ultimately, the company isn’t even close to producing a car and any capital thrown at it is dead money that will disappear into a black hole.
It’s plausible that this is a sign of froth when marginal tech firms like RIDE can pull off their act for this long.
It almost makes sense as the market-altering retail army funnels capital to spin into meme trades and make a mockery of the real traders who try to treat this seriously let alone value investors.
I doubt that Reddit’s retail army will save RIDE since the word is out of their business practices.
It’s not too far-flung to consider that the same mysticism brought to the EV industry by Elon Musk is being deployed nefariously to excite the incremental investor that RIDE is about to strike it rich with the “next Tesla.”
The truth is that there is only one Tesla and there will be only one Tesla because they thread the needle through the hole popularizing the EV when there was no competition.
And now the conglomerates have closed that gap and are chasing after Tesla, meaning it’s impossible that there could even be another Tesla in 2021.
And by competition, I first mean GM, then the tier after that of Toyota, Ford, and European players who allowed Tesla to take the lead.
I would say that any reader mustn’t believe that charlatans masquerading as the “next Elon Musk” could be just as good as the real thing.
Take these words with a grain of salt.
Capital should not be considered in any of these unless there’s a real product and proof of product success.
And I am not even talking about accelerated earnings reports yet, or consistent outperformance, this is way off of that.
There are some instances where a premium is paid for potential, especially if it will shift the paradigm in the industry, but if it smells like a rat, the rat should prove he isn’t a rat and not vice-versa.
“I think frugality drives innovation, just like other constraints do. One of the only ways to get out of a tight box is to invent your way out.” – Said Founder of Amazon Jeff Bezos
Global Market Comments
June 11, 2021
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(HOW TO FIND A GREAT OPTIONS TRADE)
Mad Hedge Biotech & Healthcare Letter
June 10, 2021
Fiat Lux
FEATURED TRADE:
(IN THE RIGHT PLACE AT THE RIGHT TIME)
(MRNA), (PFE), (BNTX), (NVAX), (CVAC), (SNY), (TMO), (CTLT), (BAX), (INO)
Before the COVID-19 pandemic, only a handful of people had actually heard of messenger RNA (mRNA).
Now, this technology has become a household term thanks to the success of the COVID-19 vaccine programs of Pfizer (PFE), BioNTech (BNTX), and Moderna (MRNA).
Aside from these three names, other players in the mRNA arena include Novavax (NVAX) and an under-the-radar stock called CureVac (CVAC), which has been collaborating with Bayer (BAYRY).
Even Sanofi joined the list recently with its acquisition of mRNA-focused biotechnology company Tidal Therapeutics.
Amid the growing number of mRNA-focused companies, however, the world has come to associate the technology most with Moderna.
This is apparent in the increasing demand for Moderna’s COVID-19 vaccine, which has been pushing the biotech company to quickly expand its manufacturing capacity.
One of the steps it took to meet the supply expectations is to partner with Thermo Fisher (TMO), specifically for fill-finish, labeling, and packaging.
For orders outside the United States, Moderna established a partnership with South Korea’s renowned Samsung Biologics (KRX: 207940) to keep up with the demand.
While TMO and Samsung Biologics are the two major forces helping Moderna in its manufacturing concerns, other companies are also pitching in, including Catalent (CTLT), Sanofi, and Baxter BioPharma Solutions (BAX).
With the assistance of these companies, along with the major expansion of its own manufacturing site, Moderna anticipates that it can supply at least 3 billion doses of its COVID-19 vaccine annually by 2022.
This is promising news, particularly in light of another massive market that Moderna can conquer next: India.
While the United States has managed to turn the corner in the COVID-19 battle, India has been struggling to fight back against the virus. To this day, the country continues to grapple with the increasing number of COVID-19 cases.
Low and sluggish vaccination rates are considered the major contributing factor to this problem, with a measly 3.3% of India’s citizens getting fully vaccinated so far.
With a population of approximately 1.39 billion, this offers a massive opportunity for vaccine developers.
Thus far, only 228 million doses of the COVID-19 vaccines have been shipped to India. That leaves about 1.16 billion people in this huge country to receive a vaccine.
Since India is a developing nation, vaccine makers are expected to charge the low end of their range.
For Moderna, that would be roughly $25 per dose, while Pfizer would probably charge $19.50 per dose.
However, these prices could still go lower depending on the contract negotiated by the Indian government.
Even at the low end of the price point though, the Indian market represents approximately $28 billion in revenue for COVID-19 vaccine developers.
Taking advantage of this momentum, Moderna has been working on booster candidates for its COVID-19 vaccine. In fact, one candidate may be ready by fall.
Of course, competitors are looking into the new variants as well. Aside from Pfizer, smaller companies like Inovio Pharmaceuticals (INO) have started with clinical trials this year.
Moderna is also investing heavily in artificial intelligence (AI) in an effort to become a step ahead of future diseases.
Through AI and machine learning, Moderna aims to predict strains that evade protection provided by their roster of vaccines.
Based on the data, the company will be able to develop next-generation vaccines and boosters before the situation becomes as critical as what happened in 2020.
These efforts are essential for Moderna to sustain its position as the leader in mRNA technology.
Despite its earlier issues with production, Moderna is still set to generate roughly $19.2 billion in revenue for its COVID-19 vaccine thanks to advance purchase agreements.
The potential availability of a booster this year would definitely get the ball rolling in terms of handling newer variants.
The biotechnology industry is favored among investors on the lookout for companies with incredibly strong growth potential.
While it’s a risky environment filled with businesses flaming out practically year after year, winners in this field can come out with extremely impressive results.
In recent months, Moderna has become one of the most successful examples that demonstrated the potential of a biotech when it finds itself with cutting-edge technology at an ideal time.
Legal Disclaimer
There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.