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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

September 29, 2021

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
September 29, 2021
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(THE NEW PAYPAL OR SQUARE)
(SOFI), (PYPL), (SQ)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-09-29 15:04:142021-09-29 16:04:26September 29, 2021
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

The New Paypal or Square

Tech Letter

SoFi Technologies (SOFI), a recent SPAC, is a one-stop fintech platform that provides loan refinancing, private student loans, personal loans, auto loans, mortgage loans and investments, as well as insurance products for renters, homeowners, automobiles and others.

They are a fintech company at a time when fintech companies are fetching premiums.

That’s always a great place to be.

Fintech's outsized attention stems from the position they sit at in today’s world — they truly exist at the intersection of the future and technology.

SoFi’s stock reacted poorly from the missed earnings-per-share estimates, and the stock is down roughly around 20% since the Aug. 12 release.

Volatility is a familiar pain point for emerging tech stocks and the investing backdrop continues to be fickle and frothy.

What do I like about SoFi today?

They are making progress on their overall strategic vision and show signs they might live up to the hype.

Total revenue in the technology division declined from the sequential quarter, while total revenue in the lending segment grew a respectable 12.4%.

But in the financial services segment, which is by far the smallest of the three in terms of revenue, total revenue of more than $17 million grew 164% from the first quarter of 2021 and more than 600% from the second quarter of 2020.

Experiencing green shoots in new businesses gives investors hope that they can turn divisions into cash cows.

The company is seeing a boost coming from new members on its online brokerage, SoFi Invest, as well as from the new equity capital markets and advisory services offerings introduced during the quarter.

SoFi is also getting in on the crypto space, allowing investments in equities, cryptocurrencies, fractional shares, and robo-investing services.

I also love that SoFi is in the process of obtaining an official bank charter — this also opens the door to many new opportunities that require deposits.

It would be accurate to say they are heading down the path of PayPal (PYPL) and Square (SQ), and there are plenty of green pastures to till in this space.

Just look at these two firms’ stock performance and one will understand there are worse places to be in the economy.  

Eventually, the company will be able to unearth cross-selling opportunity, along with the SoFi Money checking account product, as members will be easily able to transfer funds to and from their checking and brokerage accounts.

SoFi Invest also doesn't currently offer options trading. In 2020, the online brokerage, Robinhood generated 46% of its total revenue from options trading, so it certainly could be a boost if SoFi eventually offers the feature.

By providing consumers with free access to high-frequency products and lower costs, SoFi eases consumers into the ecosystem.

Then, with the help of a simple UI/UX, customers are drawn toward ancillary products.

The vision they are beholden to is that of insatiable user growth that will nudge the incremental investor into buying more shares of SoFi.  

Another reason to get behind SoFi is due to the company bringing market-leading deployable digital platform that is rapidly gaining traction in today’s economy.

In this current climate, growth stocks don’t have the same appeal that they did last year, or even in 2012.

The Nasdaq is frothy and looking for new drivers to take us a leg higher and obviously higher interest rates do a lot to diminish the narrative for stocks like SoFi.

I will say that if SoFi’s stock comes down to $14 which would represent a remarkable discount from the $25 the stock was trading in February, then I would pull the trigger at that point.

This isn’t a stock worth chasing because it’s susceptible to missing forecasts, earnings, EPS, and revenue targets.

SoFi has a hard slog ahead of itself to become the next PayPal or Square, but if they achieve a fraction of the success the aforementioned did, then it will become a $30 stock.

sofi

 

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-09-29 15:02:182021-10-07 17:56:23The New Paypal or Square
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Quote of the Day - September 29, 2021

Tech Letter

“It's not about working harder; it's about working the system.” – Said Co-founder and CEO of the American social media company Snap Evan Spiegel

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/evan-spiegel.png 346 326 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-09-29 15:00:182021-09-29 15:56:55Quote of the Day - September 29, 2021
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Trade Alert - (PINS) September 29, 2021 - BUY

Tech Alert

When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Alert-e1457452190575.jpg 135 150 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-09-29 11:15:332021-09-29 11:15:33Trade Alert - (PINS) September 29, 2021 - BUY
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

September 29, 2021

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
September 29, 2021
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(PLEASE SIGN UP NOW FOR MY FREE TEXT ALERT SERVICE NOW),
(BIDDING MORE FOR THE STARS)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-09-29 09:06:122021-09-29 12:27:17September 29, 2021
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Bidding More for the Stars

Diary, Newsletter

The stock market has turned into the real estate market, where everyone is afraid to sell for fear of being unable to find a replacement. Will it next turn into the Bitcoin market, which has gone ballistic?

Risk assets everywhere are now facing a good news glut.

My 2021 market top target of 40,000 for the Dow Average has come within range.

This year’s price action really gives you the feeling of an approaching short-term blow-off market top. If Covid-19 crashed the market, will the vaccine boosters the recovery?

A few years ago, I went to a charity fundraiser at San Francisco’s priciest jewelry store, Shreve & Co., where the well-heeled men bid for dates with the local high society beauties, dripping in diamonds and Channel No. 5.

Amply fueled with Dom Perignon champagne, I jumped into a spirited bidding war over one of the Bay Area’s premier hotties, who shall remain nameless. Suffice to say, she is now married to a well-known tech titan and has a local sports stadium named after her.

Obviously, I didn’t work hard enough.

The bids soared to $33,000, $34,000, $35,000.

After all, it was for a good cause. But when it hit $36,000, I suddenly developed a severe case of lockjaw. Later, the sheepish winner with a rampant case of buyer’s remorse came to me and offered his date back to me for $35,000.  I said, “no thanks.” $34,000, $33,000, $32,000?

I passed.

The altitude of the stock market right now reminds me of that evening.

If you rode the S&P 500 (SPX) from 700 to 4,50 and the Dow Average (INDU) from 7,000 to 35,000, why sweat trying to eke out a few more basis points.

And if there was ever an excuse to take a break it is the blistering 18,000 point rally off the March 2020 bottom.

I realize that many of you are not hedge fund managers and that running a prop desk, mutual fund, 401k, pension fund, or day trading account has its own demands.

But let me quote what my favorite Chinese general, Deng Xiaoping, once told me in person: “There is a time to fish, and a time to hang your nets out to dry.  You don’t have to chase every trade.

At least then I’ll have plenty of dry powder for when the window of opportunity reopens for business. So, while I’m mending my nets, I’ll be building new lists of trades for you to strap on when the sun, moon, and stars align once again.

 

 

 

What Am I Bid?

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-09-29 09:02:372021-09-29 12:27:35Bidding More for the Stars
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

September 28, 2021

Biotech Letter

 

Mad Hedge Biotech & Healthcare Letter
September 28, 2021
Fiat Lux

FEATURED TRADE:

(A RINSE-WASH-REPEAT PLAY FOR OPPORTUNISTIC INVESTORS)
(EXEL), (BMY), (RHHBY), (VRTX), (TDOC)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-09-28 15:02:442021-09-28 15:59:35September 28, 2021
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

A Rinse-Wash-Repeat Play for Opportunistic Investors

Biotech Letter

No matter the short-term consequences of events in the past months, what remains constant is the stock market’s ability to create wealth over the long term.

Each crash or correction that occurred in history was eventually offset by a strong bull market rally.

That’s why it pays to be prepared for when things start to turn around.

Today, I’d like to take a look at another name in the oncology sector that’s poised to skyrocket in the coming years: Exelixis (EXEL).

Here’s a quick overview of Exelixis.

Exelixis is a California-based biotech that’s focused on developing treatments for hard-to-treat types of cancer. To date, the company has three FDA-approved treatments in the market.

The stock has been trading within the $20 and $22 range and sports a market capitalization of roughly $7 billion.

For most of its existence, Exelixis’ growth story centers around its blockbuster therapy, called Cabometyx.

In the second quarter earnings report, Cabometyx’s sales went up 59% compared to its 2020 performance to contribute $275.6 million.

This comprised the bulk of Exelixis’ total revenue worth $385.2 million, which climbed an impressive 48.4% year over year.

Cabometyx is the leading treatment for first- and second-line treatment for advanced renal cell carcinoma (RCC) and advanced hepatocellular carcinoma.

Together, both indications could generate over $1 in annual sales for Cabometyx in 2021 and 2022.

To put things in perspective, the entire Cabometyx franchise was only worth about $742 million in 2020.

What makes Cabometyx an exciting revenue stream is its label-expansion capacity.

Apart from the two approved indications, Exelixis is also conducting six more clinical trials for this drug either as a monotherapy or a combination treatment.

So far, Cabometyx has proven to be effective as a combination therapy with Bristol-Myers Squibb’s (BMY) Opdivo. This additional approval has allowed Exelixis to seize an even bigger share of the RCC market today.

Considering the label-expansion opportunities for Cabometyx, this treatment is projected to become a multi-billion-dollar drug soon.

Given the solid performance of its products and successful collaborations, Exelixis has also become a cash cow.

The company estimates that it would conclude 2021 with roughly $1.6 billion to $1.7 billion in cash and investments—an amount that comprises over 20% of its market capitalization.

With this money, the company can comfortably pursue acquisitions and even strengthen its internal R&D engine.

However, not everything has been smooth sailing for Exelixis in the past months.

One of the major factors that pulled the stock down by a whopping 20% is the unimpressive results from its liver cancer clinical trial with Roche (RHHBY) last June.

However, I think the market overreacted to this piece of negative news.

If anything, Exelixis has already turned the situation around.

Unfazed by its unexpected flop with Roche, Exelixis is again pursuing a difficult-to-treat condition: prostate cancer.

The difference this time is that the company appears to have more confidence in the efficacy of its famed Cabometyx as a treatment for the condition—so much so that they intend to apply for FDA feedback in the high-risk group and possibly even an accelerated approval.

It also celebrated a recent win with the approval of Cabometyx’s label expansion to cover 12 years and older—an approval granted way ahead of their December 4 schedule.

Now, Cabometyx can also be prescribed to treat DTC, which is the most common kind of thyroid cancer in the United States.

More than that, Exelixis is the first to provide a standard treatment option to these patients, making the company a first mover in this segment.

Looking at the history of first movers, such as Vertex (VRTX) in the cystic fibrosis sector and Teladoc (TDOC) in the telehealth space, Exelixis could very well be on its way into becoming a functioning monopoly.

In terms of its pipeline, Exelixis has more than 100 studies going through different stages. These cover diverse indications including gastrointestinal cancers, neuroendocrine tumors, and lung cancer.

While Exelixis has a balance sheet akin to Fort Knox and a remarkable revenue growth, its shares remain range-bound in the past couple of years.

Nonetheless, it has continued to be an impressive “rinse-wash-repeat” covered call play during the same period and is considered a dividend stock with double-digit yields.

Moreover, Exelixis has been consistently ramping up revenue growth in the past years.

The biotech’s big cash balance along with its proven profitability indicate a minimal possibility of dilution.

Considering its price-to-earnings-growth ratio of almost 1, this company is the picture of an ideal balance of double-digit sales growth complemented with great value.

Simply put, it’s a great opportunity for long-term investors.

More importantly, its recent stock-price meltdown makes it an ideal addition to the portfolio of opportunistic investors.

Exelixis

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-09-28 15:00:472021-10-07 17:26:23A Rinse-Wash-Repeat Play for Opportunistic Investors
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

September 28, 2021

Bitcoin Letter

Mad Hedge Bitcoin Letter
September 28, 2021
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(THE ART OF BITCOIN MINING)
(BTC), (ASIC), (GPU)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-09-28 14:05:112021-09-28 15:04:17September 28, 2021
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Trade Alert - (FB) September 28, 2021 - SELL-STOP LOSS

Tech Alert

When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Alert-e1457452190575.jpg 135 150 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-09-28 13:12:292021-09-28 13:12:29Trade Alert - (FB) September 28, 2021 - SELL-STOP LOSS
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There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.

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