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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Trading the New Apple in 2022

Diary, Newsletter

Not a day goes by when someone doesn’t ask me about what to do about Apple (AAPL).

After all, it is the world's largest publicly-traded company at a $2.1 trillion market capitalization. It is the planet’s most widely owned stock. Almost everyone uses their products in some form or another.

It buys back more of its own stock than any other company on the planet. Oh yes, it is also one of Warren Buffet’s favorite picks and one of his biggest holdings.

So, the widespread adulation is totally understandable.

Apple is a company with which I have a very long relationship. During the early 1980s, I was ordered by Morgan Stanley to take Steve Jobs around to the big New York Institutional Investors to pitch a secondary share offering for the sole reason that I was one of three people who worked for the firm who was then from California.

They thought one West Coast hippy would easily get along with another. Boy, were they wrong, me in my three-piece navy blue pinstripe suit and Steve in his battered Levi’s. It was the worst day of my life.

Steve was not a guy who palled around with anyone. He especially hated investment bankers, like me.

I last got into Apple with my personal account when the company only had four weeks of cash flow remaining and was on the verge of bankruptcy. I got in at $7, which on a split-adjusted basis today is 25 cents. I still have them. In fact, my cost basis in Apple is less than the 88 cents annual dividend now.

Today, some 200 Apple employees subscribe to the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader looking to diversify their substantial holdings. Many own Apple stock with an adjusted cost basis of under $5. Suffice it to say, they all drive really nice Priuses.

So I get a lot of information about the firm far above and beyond the normal effluent of the media and stock analysts. That’s why Apple has become a favorite target of my Trade Alerts over the years.

And here is the great irony: Nobody would touch the stock with a ten-foot pole at the end of 2018. Since then, Apple has rallied 274%, creating more market cap in a year than any company in history.

Here’s why. Apple was all about the iPhone which then accounted for 75% of its total earnings. The TV, the watch, the car, iPods, the iMac, and Apple Pay were all a waste of time and consumed far more coverage than they are collectively worth.

The good news is that iPhone sales are subject to a fairly predictable cycle. Apple launches a major new iPhone every other fall. The share price peaks shortly after that. The odd years see minor upgrades, not generational changes.

Just like you see a big pullback in the tide before a tsunami hits, iPhone sales are flattening out between major upgrades. This is because consumers start delaying purchases in expectation of the introduction of the new iPhone, more power, gadgets, and gizmos.

So during those in-between years, the stock performance was disappointing. 2018 certainly followed this script with Apple down a horrific 30.13% at the lows. Maybe it’s a coincidence, but the previous generation in Apple shares in 2015 brought a decline of, you guessed it, exactly 29.33%.

But Apple is a much bigger company this time around, and well-established cycles tend to bring in diminishing returns. It’s like watching the declining peaks of a bouncing rubber ball.

This is not your father’s Apple anymore. Services like iTunes and the new Apple+ streaming service are accounting for an even larger share of the company’s profits. And guess what? Services companies command much higher multiples than boring old hardware ones. It’s the old questions of linear versus exponential growth.

Here’s the next new play. Autonomous driving looks to be a huge business for Apple, possibly a $1 trillion a year business. After all, Tesla is already charging $8,000 for the upgrade and it only works on freeways. My bet is that they sell autonomous consoles to legacy Ford (F) and General Motors (GM).

An easing of trade relations with China under a new Biden administration will bring a new spring to Apple’s step, where sales have recently been in free fall. Their new membership lease program promises to deliver a faster upgrade cycle that will allow higher premium prices for their products. That will bring larger profits.

A decade ago, I ran into a local school teacher who, after 30 years of slaving away with your brats, was unable to retire because, with only $100,000 saved, she was too poor to do so. All her money went to expensive California rent and to Blue Cross since her district had no health insurance plan.

I told her to place her entire life savings into Apple. Her financial advisor told her she was nuts. Her friends told her she was crazy. Her mother said she should disown me.

Where is that school teacher today? She just bought a $3 million beachfront home on Hawaii’s Kona Coast. She sold her Apple shares for $7.3 million. I know because I just received a nice Christmas card from her attached to a two-pound box of See’s candy, my favorite.

Who said teaching didn’t pay!

It all adds up to keeping Apple as a core to any long-term portfolio.

Just thought you’d like to know.

 

 

I Heard They are Diversifying

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/apple.png 648 862 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-12-24 10:04:092021-12-24 15:12:23Trading the New Apple in 2022
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

December 23, 2021

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
December 23, 2021
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(A BIOTECH STOCK POISED FOR REDEMPTION)
(VRTX), (ABBV), (CRSP), (MRNA)

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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

A Biotech Stock Poised for Redemption

Biotech Letter

It’s the season to start some holiday shopping, and you don’t have to limit yourself to gifts for friends and family.

You might want to expand your shopping list to include a few bargain stocks as well.

These names typically have solid fundamentals but have seen their share prices tumble for one reason or another.

One of them is Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX).

Vertex has one of the most exciting growth stories in the biotechnology and healthcare industry.

Sadly, the stock has fallen in the past 12 months despite the continuous rise of the company’s business.

The primary cause was the failure of two of Vertex’s candidates, VX-814 and VX-864. These two drugs were supposed to target rare genetic lung and liver conditions.

More importantly, both were slated as the next growth drivers for the company.

Nevertheless, it looks like Vertex has a number of candidates in its pipeline that can deliver the same if not higher growth in the coming years. 

For instance, its Trikafta line appears to be continuously expanding, with its recent approval for patients aged 6 to 11 boosting the company’s quarterly revenue by 29% year-on-year to rake in $1.98 billion—or 6% over consensus.

Turning to Vertex’s core business, it remains a virtual monopoly in the cystic fibrosis treatment sector.

Looking at the market, the company has identified roughly 30,000 more patients with CF who are eligible to seek treatment with Vertex’s drugs.

In terms of sales, that translates to an additional $5.4 billion—or 37% of the current revenues.

It’s even safe to say that Vertex can easily corner this remaining market since Trikafta’s patent protection is valid until 2037.

Aside from that, the closest challenger in this market is AbbVie (ABBV), which has an experimental drug in Phase 2 trials.

If all goes well for the latter, then the results for that stage would be out by the first quarter of 2022.

Even assuming that AbbVie’s candidate succeeds in Phase 2, there’s still the third stage of research, which would take at least a few more years before the drug enters the market.

Meanwhile, Vertex has also been amping up its CF pipeline with new experimental CF drugs based on a combination of its already successful products.

Based on preliminary data, these new candidates may turn out to have even higher efficiency than Trikafta.

Speaking of monopoly, Vertex hasn’t forgotten the 10% of CF patients who aren’t eligible for its current therapies.

To completely corner the market, Vertex has partnered with leading gene therapy experts to develop two new drugs for the remaining 10%—and these “experts” are renowned heavyweights in the biotech sector as well: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) and Moderna (MRNA).

Outside its core business, Vertex has been expanding its pipeline to cover other markets.

One of its exciting candidates is CTX001. This is a gene therapy that’s supposed to be a one-time cure for rare conditions B-thalassemia and sickle cell disease. The company plans to apply for regulatory approval by the end of 2022.

If this works out, then Vertex is looking at an addressable market size of 32,000, which translates to $2 billion in annual sales.

Another promising candidate is VX-548, which is an acute pain treatment. While 90% of the prescribed drugs for this condition are generic, this still amounts to a $4 billion market in the United States alone.

Moreover, the average cost for a branded acute pain medicine is roughly $10 daily. That means any highly effective drug has the potential to generate several billion dollars in sales.

Regardless of how some of its candidates turned out, Vertex remains a company with a healthy and promising growth profile.

Hence, it’s not much of a stretch to argue that its current stock valuation looks attractive, especially for long-term investors.

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-12-23 17:00:202021-12-23 17:58:37A Biotech Stock Poised for Redemption
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

December 23, 2021

Bitcoin Letter

Mad Hedge Bitcoin Letter
December 23, 2021
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(HOW TO SET UP A CRYPTO TRADING ACCOUNT)
(
BTC), (COIN)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-12-23 15:02:122021-12-24 15:22:42December 23, 2021
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Human Testing Could Start in 2022

Tech Letter

Neuralink Corporation is an American neurotechnology company developing implantable brain-machine interfaces.

You would think this is straight out of science fiction, but mark my word that in our lifetime, we could all be operating digital devices from our heads if Musk gets his way.

And he often does get his way.

Scary as it seems now, this will probably be the first of many artificial intelligence procedures to infuse humans with layers of artificial intelligence.

Musk believes humans will go the way of robot hybrid in the future because the natural development of competition is trending in that way and sadly, this direction in humanity is ultimately existential for every one of us.

Improvements in technology will periodically be announced and iterations will need to be adopted because software is upgraded.

As for today and now, testing on pigs has segued into testing on monkeys.

Musk has told us the monkey testing has gone “well.”

Pending FDA approval, Musk hopes to start testing humans with severe spinal-cord injuries like tetraplegics, quadriplegics in 2022 which would represent a monumental step in this technology.

Earlier this year, a 20-person biotech firm called Synchron secured approval from the FDA to start human testing, so the stakes are high and imminent.  

Neuralink’s dramatically simplified design for an implant that hopes to create brain-to-machine interfaces is a big deal and partly because of the star power backing the project that can literally move mountains.

The previous design consisted of a bean-shaped device that would sit behind the ear, but now it is the size of a large coin, and it goes in your skull.

I expect the final iteration to be a millimeter wide.

The in-brain device could enable humans with neurological conditions to control technology, such as phones or computers, with mere thoughts.

The other use case is solving neurological disorders from memory, hearing loss, and blindness to paralysis, depression, and brain damage which is a tad more altruistic.

The current prototype – referred to as version 0.9 – measures 23 millimeters by eight millimeters and has 1024 electrode "threads" attached to it that are implanted into the brain.

It is designed to replace a coin-sized portion of the skull and sit flush so it would be physically unnoticeable. It would be inductively charged the same way you would wirelessly charge a smartwatch or a phone.

The surgical robot, which is programmed to insert the neural threads safely into the brain, was done by US design company Woke Studios.

Woke Studio’s robot would be able to insert the link in under an hour without general anesthesia, with the patient able to leave the hospital right away.

The robot will eventually do the entire surgery – so everything from the incision, removing the skull, inserting electrodes, placing the device, and then closing things up.

It will be completely automated.

If this technology is green-lighted by the U.S. Federal Government, I envision a free for all into this technology from the likes of Facebook, Google, Apple, and Microsoft, and so on.

If you thought website “cookie tracking” is bad now, then once tech firms are granted access to consumers’ brains, it could open up a pandora's box of moral conflicts of interest, an avalanche of revenue opportunities, and lawsuits galore.

Look at the hesitation and disgruntlement of the health industry hoping to convince Americans to take two jabs of an mRNA vaccine in the arm and now think about trying to convince humans to implant a chip in their head for the sake of competing.

Will American society really get to the point where Facebook is selling your “thoughts” to neural advertisers?

It’s scary to think about but that is the direction we are headed down for better or worse.

If you view this through the lens of big tech, battering down the hatches to get access to consumers’ “thoughts” is the holy grail of access points and revenue flow.

In 2021, humans still need to digest thoughts and carry out functions through actionable fingers into a phone interface.

We have also allowed big tech into our home feeding them data through smart devices and virtual assistants like Amazon Alexa.

Getting rid of all that “fluff” and extracting data and behavioral results from the original source is potentially worth over 20 trillion dollars along with a recurring revenue source to infinity.

Not only will physical devices be useless at that point, but they will also spawn a mega cloud storage business that is hooked straight to the mind.

An economic analyst can digest how cloud companies like Amazon and Google would rake in the trillions by storing libraries of data that a mind can tap in at any time.

It really is a gigantic step that will digitize, even if marginally ethical, and computerize humans - big tech is first in line to reap the profits and literally control our brains.

This is the future – a future where we coexist with artificial intelligence and brain chips.

 

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/microchip.png 560 930 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-12-22 16:02:372021-12-22 17:31:43Human Testing Could Start in 2022
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Quote of the Day - December 22, 2021

Tech Letter

“When something is important enough, you do it even if the odds are not in your favor.” – Said Founder and CEO of Tesla and Neuralink Elon Musk

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/elon-musk.png 516 446 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-12-22 16:00:332021-12-22 17:26:40Quote of the Day - December 22, 2021
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

December 22, 2021

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
December 22, 2021
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(THE EIGHT WORST TRADES IN HISTORY),
(TESTIMONIAL)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-12-22 11:06:052021-12-22 17:15:58December 22, 2021
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

December 21, 2021

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
December 21, 2021
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(A BREAKOUT BIOTECH WITH A STRONG STAYING POWER)
(MRNA), (PFE), (BNTX), (MRK), (AZN), (VRTX), (CRSP), (GILD)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-12-21 17:02:312021-12-21 19:35:21December 21, 2021
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

A Breakout Biotech With A Strong Staying Power

Biotech Letter

The biotechnology and healthcare sector has been ruthlessly hammered in 2021.

In fact, the largest exchange-traded funds that keep track of the biotechnology industry have been in the negative in the past months.

However, the string of bad news doesn’t automatically mean that none of the biotechs can deliver strong returns in the coming days.

An excellent example of a biotech that’s an exception to the general theme of the sector these days is none other than the famous Moderna (MRNA).

Moderna stock has already delivered a 434% gain in 2020. Meanwhile, it has so far recorded a 160% rise this year—a number that’s expected to go higher before 2021 ends.

These gains came after the biotech became one of the market leaders in the COVID-19 vaccine race, alongside Pfizer (PFE) and BioNTech (BNTX).

Considering how COVID-19 catapulted the stock to dizzying heights, some investors fear that Moderna’s performance will decline in a post-pandemic setting.

That’s not necessarily the case.

Viruses present complex problems. Right now, we’re dealing with yet another coronavirus variant, Omicron.

This latest strain appears to be more contagious than the previously discovered Delta variant, which was then reported to be more virulent than the original.

What’s the takeaway here?

COVID-19 isn’t going to disappear anytime soon. Since the vaccines and boosters seem to wane gradually, these are expected to become staples moving forward.

This means everyone will need ongoing protection, which translates to ongoing sales for vaccines and boosters for companies like Moderna.

Moreover, the continuous demand for new and more potent vaccines makes it a no-brainer that Moderna will once again deliver market-crushing performances in the next few years.

For context, the company estimates that Spikevax, its COVID-19 vaccine, will rake in roughly $15 billion to $18 billion in sales in 2021.

Orders for 2022 have been secured as well, with Moderna already locked in for over $22 billion worth of Spikevax doses through advance purchase deals.

This is still expected to rise, considering the vaccines under development for the new variants getting discovered.

But even when the panic and anxiety over the viruses subside, we can still reasonably expect roughly $15 billion in annual sales from Spikevax

After all, the vaccine and boosters are expected to become the norm eventually.

Believe it or not, though, the best reason to buy Moderna isn’t its coronavirus vaccine.

Outside Spikevax, Moderna has a long list of promising pipeline candidates under development—the majority of which are based on the mRNA technology that’s behind its potent COVID vaccine.

While that does not guarantee that all the candidates will gain approval, the fact that the technology has been proven to work on humans presents a bright future for these candidates.

The company has been actively advancing its programs using its cash on hand, with over half a dozen queued in Phase 2 trials.

A potential blockbuster is its cytomegalovirus (CMV) vaccine candidate.

CMV, a virus that can be deadly to unborn babies and individuals with compromised immune systems, currently has no vaccine.

This represents an untapped market with high demand. Conservatively speaking, Moderna can generate roughly $2 billion to $5 billion in peak sales for this vaccine if it gains regulatory approval.

Other impressive programs in the biotech’s pipeline are its HIV vaccine candidate and a personalized cancer vaccine, which Moderna has been developing with Merck (MRK).

Needless to say, both hold the potential to become game-changers not only for Moderna but also for the entire industry.

Aside from its personalized cancer vaccine, another relatively advanced program in its pipeline is its work with AstraZeneca (AZN) on the AZD8601 program.

The AZD8601 program aims to use mRNA therapies to encode for vascular endothelial growth factor-A in people who are supposed to go through a coronary artery bypass grafting.

In layman’s terms, AstraZeneca and Moderna want to develop a treatment that induces the heart blood vessels of heart bypass surgery patients to repair themselves.

However, the most exciting collaboration is Moderna’s work with Vertex (VRTX) to develop a cystic fibrosis (CF) treatment.

Considering that Vertex is practically a monopoly in the CF space, this can turn out to be a lucrative direction for Moderna as well.

In terms of competition, the biotech might go head-to-head against Vertex’s other partner, CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP).

Until two years ago, Moderna was an obscure biotechnology company with no product out on the market.

Today, it is hailed as one of the biggest biotechs worldwide thanks to its market capitalization of roughly $120 billion, surpassing long-established names in the sectors like Gilead Sciences (GILD) and even Vertex.

Some investors point out that Moderna’s breakneck rise to the top might also mean a steady descent.

While I agree that its climb was faster than the usual biotech, I still believe that Moderna possesses the right tools to sustain its momentum for the years to come.

 

moderna biotech

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-12-21 17:00:352022-01-03 15:49:43A Breakout Biotech With A Strong Staying Power
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

December 21, 2021

Bitcoin Letter

Mad Hedge Bitcoin Letter
December 21, 2021
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(THE BEST CRYPTO ETF RIGHT NOW)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-12-21 15:04:442021-12-22 11:02:17December 21, 2021
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There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.

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