Mad Hedge Hot Tips
April 1, 2019
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

1) China Rumors Lift Markets. Is this the upside breakout we’ve been looking for? Buy (FXI). Click here.

2) Boeing 737 Max to Stay Grounded Through May, says an internal company memo. The wait is going to be longer than we thought. Still, the stock is up on the news. Sell Southwest (LUV). It will take the biggest hit. Click here.

3) Mad Hedge Hits New All-Time High, up 15.46% year to date, and beating the pants off the Dow Average. Good thing I didn’t buy the bearish argument. There’s too much cash floating around the world. I’m looking to be up 20% within ten days. Click here.

4) Retail Sales Drop 0.20%, in February in another sign of a slowing global economy. Construction spending is also down 0.3%. Try telling that to the stock market today. Click here.

5) China Factory Orders Grow, for the first time in 4 months. Is all their stimulus finally turning around the economy? Click here.

Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:

(MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, OR THE INMATES ARE RUNNING THE ASYLUM)

(SPY), (TLT), (FCX), (DIS), (TSLA), (IWM),

(GOOGL), (MSFT), (PYPL), (AMZN)

(THE NEXT TECH BUBBLE TOP HAS STARTED)

(LYFT), (PIN), (UBER), (AAPL), (JPM), (FB)

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
March 27, 2019
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

1) The US Government Sues Facebook, claiming they enable housing discrimination through its advertising. Expect more government attacks against the FANGs. The west coast is not loved by this administration. Click here.

2) Q4 GDP Final Report Comes in at 2.2%, as expected, down a third from Q3. Expect that figure to more than halve in Q1 2019. Put on your hard hat. Click here.

3) Massive Broker Layoffs Presage Coming Recession. Cutting the overhead is crucial if you’re going to survive the next downturn. It doesn’t help that FinTech is eating their lunch. Click here.

4) Foreign Investors Pour into the US Bond Market, driving ten-year US Treasury yields down to 2.33%. When everyone else in the world has negative yields, our bonds become the highest yielding in the world. Click here.

5) But the Stock Market is Getting it Wrong, seeing plunging rates as a sign of imminent recession. When the market figures this out, stocks will rally hard to new highs. Maybe that’s why we’re only falling 100 points a day. The recession is next year’s business.

Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:

(JOIN US AT THE MAD HEDGE LAKE TAHOE, NEVADA CONFERENCE, OCTOBER 25-26, 2019)

(THE REBIRTH OF THE MASTER LIMITED PARTNERSHIP),

(USO), (AMLP), (FPL), (MLPS), (MLPX)

(MCDONALD’S GOES HIGH TECH)

(MCD)

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
March 26, 2019
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

1) Mueller Report has No Market Impact, with the Dow Average up a scant $14.51. No Bombshells here. It’s “RISK ON.” Buy the dips. Click here.

2) Apple Announces its New Streaming Service, Apple TV Plus, and the stock falls on a “sell the news” drop. Roku is included in the package, so buy (ROKU). The Apple offering is weak enough to allow plenty of room for Disney to launch its own streaming service, Disney plus, at the end of this year. Prepare for an onslaught of princesses. Buy (DIS) too. Click here.

3) The Existing Yield Inversion is Fake. Real yield inversions crush stock markets when short term rate soar, not collapse, so the bear market is on hold. Foreign investors have already figured this out and are pouring money into US stocks. It’s “’RISK ON” baby. Click here.

4) Home Price Appreciation Hits a Four-Year Low, with the S&P Case Shiller National Home Price Index growing only 4.2% YOY in January, down from 4.6% the previous month. Las Vegas, Phoenix, and Minneapolis are still showing the biggest gains while San Francisco and Seattle are seeing the biggest price drops. Avoid homebuilder (ITB). Click here.

5) Housing Starts Drop 8.7%, in February. Yes, falling prices will have that effect on a market. Avoid homebuilders more. Waiting to buy at the coming bankruptcy auctions. Click here.
 

Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:

(WHY I’M SELLING SHORT TESLA SHARES),

(TSLA)

(PINTEREST COMES OUT)

(PINS), (FB), (AAPL), (GOOGL), (AMZN)

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
March 22, 2019
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

1) Bonds Soar and Rates Crash, taking ten-year US Treasury bond yields down to 2.44%, still reacting to the Wednesday Fed comments. This is the final nail in the bond bear market as global quantitative easing comes back with a vengeance. German ten year bonds turn negative for the first time since 2016. Click here.

2) Interest Rates Invert, with short term rates higher than long term ones for the first time since 2008. That means a recession starts in a year and the stock market starts discounting that in three months. Make hay while the sun shines. Click here.

3) Indonesia Cancels a Massive 737 Order, for 49 planes, slapping the stock on the face for $9. Apparently, they are unwilling to wait for the software fix. Buy the dip in (BA). Click here.

4) Another Brexit Vote Fails, and the European Community gives Britain an extension to May 22. This is a horrible idea entering its death throes. Buy the British pound on dips (FXB).

5) Weak Factory Orders Crush the Market, down 450 points at the low. Terrible economic data is not new these days. But it ain’t over yet. Buy the dip. Click here.


Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch:

(I HAVE AN OPENING FOR THE MAD HEDGE FUND TRADER CONCIERGE SERVICE),

(MARCH 20 BIWEEKLY STRATEGY WEBINAR Q&A),

(BA), (FCX), (IWM), (JNJ), (FXB), (VIX), (JPM)

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
March 20, 2019
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

1) It’s All About the Fed Today, which is unlikely to do anything at their 2:00 PM EST announcement. Markets will be frozen until then. How badly is Europe dragging down the US? Click here.

2) CBOE Suspends Bitcoin Futures, due to low volume and weak demand. It could be a fatal blow for the troubled cryptocurrency. Avoid bitcoin and all other cryptos. They’re a Ponzi scheme. Click here.

3) Equity Weightings Hit a 2 ½-Year Low, as professional institutional money managers sell into the rally. They are overweight long defensive REITS and short European stocks. Watch out for the reversal. Click here. (link is to an mp3 file)

4) December Stock Sellers are Now March Buyers. Expect this to lead to a higher high, then a lower low. Volatility is coiling. Don’t forget to sit down when the music stops playing. Click here.

5) Volatility Hits a Six-Month Low, with the $12 handle revisited once again, down from $30. (VIX) could get back to $9 before this is all over. Avoid (VIX), the time decay will kill you.

Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:

(WHO THE GRAND NICARAGUA CANAL HAS WORRIED),

(SCAM OF THE MONTH),

(DON’T PAY UP FOR MONEY-LOSING LYFT),

(LYFT), (UBER), (GRUB), (POSTMATES), (DOORDASH), (GOOGL)

Chart of the Day