Don?t bother taking an apple to school to give your favorite teacher, unless you want to leave it in front of a machine. The schoolteacher is about to join the sorry ranks of the service station attendant, the elevator operator, and the telephone operators whose professions have been rendered useless by technology.
The next big social trend in this country will be to replace teachers with computers. It is being forced by the financial crisis afflicting states and municipalities, which are facing red ink as far as the eye can see. From a fiscal point of view, of the 50 US states, we really have 30 Portugals, 10 Italys, 10 Irelands, 5 Greeces, and 5 Spains.
The painful cost cutting, layoffs, and downsizing that has swept the corporate area for the past 30 years is now being jammed down the throat of the public sector, the last refuge of slothful management and indifferent employees. Some 60% of high school students are already exposed to online educational programs, which enable teachers to handle far larger class sizes than the 40 students now common in California.
It makes it far easier to impose pay for productivity incentives on teachers, like linking teacher pay to student test scores, as a performance review is only a few mouse clicks away. These programs also qualify for government funding programs, like ?Race to the Top.? Costly textbooks can be dispensed with.
The alternative is to bump classroom sizes up to 80, or close down schools altogether. State deficits are so enormous that I can see public schools shutting down, privatizing their sports programs, and sending everyone home with a laptop. The cost savings would be huge. No more pep rallies, prom nights, or hanging around your girlfriend?s locker. Of course, our kids may turn out a little different, but they appear to be at the bottom of our current list of priorities.
The Old School Marm Will Be Sorely Missed
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/Teacher.jpg355354Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2013-07-19 01:04:522013-07-19 01:04:52Say Goodbye to Your Favorite Teacher
When I rode Amtrak?s California Zephyr service from Chicago to San Francisco last year, I passed countless trains heading west hauling hoppers full of coal for shipment to China. This year I took the same trip. The coal trains were gone. Instead I saw 100 car long tanker trains transporting crude oil from North Dakota south to the Gulf Coast. I thought, ?There?s got to be a trade here.? It turns out I was right.
Look at the share prices of the major listed railroads, and it is clear they have been chugging right along to produce one of the best performances of 2013. These include Union Pacific (UNP), CSX Corp (CSX), Norfolk Southern (NSC), and Canadian Pacific (CP). In the meantime, coal shares, like Arch Coal (ACI) have been one of the worst performing this year.
Those of a certain age, such as myself, remember railroads as one of the great black holes of American industry. During the sixties, they were constantly on strike, always late, and delivered terrible service. A friend of mine taking a passenger train from New Mexico to Los Angeles found his car abandoned on a siding for 24 hours, where he froze and starved until discovered.
New airlines and the trucking industry were eating their lunch. They also hemorrhaged money like crazy. The industry finally hit bottom in 1970, when the then dominant Penn Central Railroad went bankrupt, freight was spun off, and the government owned Amtrak passenger service was created out of the ashes. I know all of this because my late uncle was the treasurer of Penn Central.
Fast forward nearly half a century, and what you find is not your father?s railroad. While no one was looking, they quietly became one of the best run and most efficient industries in America. Unions were tamed, costs slashed, and roads were reorganized and consolidated.
The government provided a major assist with a sweeping deregulation. It became tremendously concentrated, with just four roads dominating the country, down from hundreds a century ago, giving you a great oligopoly play. The quality of management improved dramatically.
Then the business started to catch a few lucky breaks from globalization. The China boom that started in the nineties created enormous demand for shipment inland of manufactured goods from west coast ports. A huge trade also developed moving western coal back out to the Middle Kingdom, which now accounts for 70% of all traffic. The ?fracking? boom is having the same impact on the North/South oil by rail business.
All of this has ushered in a second ?golden age? for the railroad industry. This year, the industry is expected to pour $14 billion into new capital investment. The US Department of Transportation expects gross revenues to rise by 50% to $27.5 billion by 2040. The net of all of this is that freight rates are rising right when costs are falling, sending railroad profitability through the roof.
Union Pacific is investing a breathtaking $3.6 billion to build a gigantic transnational freight terminal in Santa Teresa, NM. It is also spending $500 million building a new bridge across the Mississippi River at Canton, Iowa. Lines everywhere are getting double tracked or upgraded. Mountain tunnels are getting rebored to accommodate double-stacked sea containers.
Indeed, the lines have become so efficient, that overnight couriers, like FedEx (FDX) and UPS (UPS), are diverting a growing share of their own traffic. Their on time record is better than that of competing truckers, who face delays from traffic jams and crumbling roads, and are still hobbled by antiquated regulation.
I have some firsthand knowledge of this expansion. Every October 1, I volunteer as a docent at the Truckee, California Historical Society on the anniversary of the fateful day in 1846 when the ill-fated Donner Party was snowed in. There, I guide groups of tourists over the same pass my ancestors crossed during the 1849 gold rush. The scars on enormous ancient pines made by passing wagon wheels are still visible.
During 1866-1869, thousands of Chinese laborers blasted a tunnel through a mile of solid granite to complete the Transcontinental Railroad. I can guide my guests through that tunnel today with flashlights because (UNP) moved the line to a new tunnel a mile south to improve the grade. The ceiling is still covered with soot from the old wood and coal-fired engines.
While the rebirth of this industry has been impressive, conditions look like they will get better still. Massive international investment in Mexico (low end manufacturing) and Canada (natural resources) promise to boost rail traffic with the US.
The rapidly accelerating ?onshoring? trend, whereby American companies relocate manufacturing facilities from overseas back home, creates new rail traffic as well. It turns out that factories that produce the biggest and heaviest products are coming home first, all great cargo for railroads.
And who knew? Railroads are also a ?green? play. As Burlington Northern Railroad owner, Warren Buffett, never tires of pointing out, it requires only one gallon of diesel fuel to move a ton of freight 500 miles. That makes it four times more energy efficient than competing trucks.
In fact, many companies are now looking to railroads to reduce their overall carbon footprints. Warren doesn?t need any convincing himself. The $34 billion he invested in the Burlington Northern Railroad two years ago has probably doubled in value since then.
You have probably all figured out by now that I am a serious train nut, beyond the industry?s investment possibilities. My past letters have chronicled adventures riding the Orient Express from London to Venice, and Amtrak from New York to San Francisco. I even once considered buying my own steam railroad; the fabled ?Skunk? train in Mendocino, California, until I figured out that it was a bottomless money pit. Some 50 years of deferred maintenance is not a pretty sight.
It gets worse. Union Pacific still maintains in running condition some of the largest steam engines every built, for historical and public relations purposes. One, the ?Old 844? once steamed its way over the High Sierras to San Francisco on a nostalgia tour. The 120-ton behemoth was built during WWII to haul heavy loads of steel, ammunition, and armaments to California ports to fight the war against Japan. The 4-8-4-class engine could pull 26 passenger cars at 100 mph.
When the engine passed, I felt the blast of heat of the boiler singe my face. No wonder people love these things! To watch the video, please click hereand hit the ?PLAY? arrow in the lower left hand corner. Please excuse the shaky picture.I shot this with one hand, while using my other hand to restrain my over excited kids from running on to the tracks to touch the laboring beast.
00Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2013-07-19 01:03:552013-07-19 01:03:55Not Your Father?s Railroads
Come join me for lunch for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader?s Global Strategy Seminar, which I will be conducting high in the Alps in Zermatt, Switzerland at 2:00 PM on Friday, August 9, 2012. A PowerPoint presentation will be followed by an open discussion on the crucial issues facing investors today. Coffee, tea, and schnapps will be made available, along with light snacks.
You are welcome to attend in your mountain climbing gear, but you will have to leave your boots at the door. Last year, someone came down from the Matterhorn summit straight to the seminar, sunburned and tired, but happy.
I?ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, foreign currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And to keep you in suspense, I?ll be throwing a few surprises out there too. Enough charts, tables, graphs, and statistics will be thrown at you to keep your ears ringing for a week. Tickets are available for $189, down from last year, thanks to the dramatic and welcome, as well as predicted depreciation of the Swiss franc against the US dollar.
I?ll be arriving early and leaving late in case anyone wants to have a one on one discussion, or just sit around and chew the fat about the financial markets.
The event will be held at a central Zermatt hotel with a great Matterhorn view, operated by one of the village?s oldest families and long time friends of mine. The details will be emailed directly to you with your confirmation.
I look forward to meeting you, and thank you for supporting my research. To purchase tickets for the Strategy Seminar, please go to my online store.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/Zermatt.jpg351468Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2013-07-18 01:05:082013-07-18 01:05:08August 9 Zermatt, Switzerland Strategy Seminar
Who was the top paid state employee in California last year? The governor? The Chief Justice of the Supreme Court? How about the leader of the Senate?
Nope. It was a prison psychiatrist who took home an eye popping $838,706, most of it in overtime. I love it! The state drives people insane by sending them to jail, then tries to cure them with triple overtime. It is a wealth destruction mechanism that only a government could come up with.
These are among the revelations uncovered when state controller, John Chang, listed the salaries of all 256,222 state workers on a government website. Only the names were missing. In fact, over 500 state workers earned more than $250,000 a year, vastly more than they could take in with private sector jobs. At least nine made more than $500,000, the top ten taking in $5.8 million.
The data was made public after a huge outcry that followed the disclosure of the salaries of town officials in the small Los Angeles municipality, Bell, which topped $700,000. Those generous paydays resulted in criminal prosecutions. Maybe prosecutors should be casting a wider net?
Thanks, Sacramento!
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/Girl-Money.jpg346346Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2013-07-18 01:04:122013-07-18 01:04:12Money Down the Drain?
Come join John Thomas for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader's Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting on the Greek island of Mykonos in the Aegean Sea on Thursday, August 1, 2013. A three-course lunch will be followed by a PowerPoint presentation and an extended question and answer period.
I'll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, foreign currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And to keep you in suspense, I'll be throwing a few surprises out there too. Enough charts, tables, graphs, and statistics will be thrown at you to keep your ears ringing for a week. Tickets are available for $259.
The lunch will be held at major resort hotel on the south shore of the island, which can be found by steering a course of 120 degrees 99 nautical miles from the port of Piraeus. Just make sure you don't run aground on the island of Andros on the way, as the tides can be treacherous. The pirates on Mykonos have already been dealt with. Moorings can be made available for private visiting yachts offshore. I will email more details with your purchase confirmation.
Bring your broad brimmed hat, sunglasses, and plenty of SPF 50 suntan lotion. You will need them. The Greek islands are cooking hot this time of the year. The dress is casual. Those not wishing to view the clothing optional beach can have a chair with its back to the sea. Accompanying spouses and significant others will be free to bill drinks to my personal account as my guest. Together we will plot the future of western civilization.
I look forward to meeting you, and thank you for supporting my research. To purchase tickets for the luncheons, please go to my online store.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/Mykonos.jpg342397Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2013-07-17 01:05:072013-07-17 01:05:07August 1 Mykonos, Greece Strategy Luncheon
Featured Trade:
(JULY 25 PORTOFINO, ITALY STRATEGY LUNCHEON),
(KNOWING THE PRICE OF EVERYTHING AND THE VALUE OF NOTHING),
(DINNER WITH NOBEL PRIZE WINNER PAUL KRUGMAN)
https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png00Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2013-07-16 01:06:032013-07-16 01:06:03July 16, 2013
Come join John Thomas for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader?s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting near Portofino, Italy on the Italian Riviera, on Thursday, July 25, 2013. A three-course lunch will be followed by a PowerPoint presentation and an extended question and answer period.
I?ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, foreign currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And to keep you in suspense, I?ll be throwing a few surprises out there too. Enough charts, tables, graphs, and statistics will be thrown at you to keep your ears ringing for a week. Tickets are available for $205.
The lunch will be held at major hotel on the beach in the village of Santa Margherita Ligure, the details of which will be emailed with your purchase confirmation. The town is easily accessible by train from Genoa, and the hotel is about a ten-minute walk from the train station.
Bring your broad brimmed hat, sunglasses, and suntan lotion. You will need them. The dress is casual. Accompanying spouses will be free to use the beach below and bill drinks to the luncheon. Together we will plot the future of western civilization.
I look forward to meeting you, and thank you for supporting my research. To purchase tickets for the luncheons, please go to my online store.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/Portofino-Italy.jpg347518Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2013-07-16 01:05:462013-07-16 01:05:46July 25 Portofino, Italy Strategy Luncheon
As a fanatical follower of the price of everything, I have long been an avid viewer of the television program, Antiques Roadshow, for 14 years, and the English version of the show well before that. This is where you learn what stuff like ?majolica? is. Many aspiring collectors come into the open appraisal events hoping they have inherited something of untold value from their late Aunt Gertrude.
The show has had its ups and down, and was once ensnared in a scandal where appraisers deliberately overvalued objects to boost television ratings. But some of the stories that come with these objects are amazing, and their educational value can?t be underestimated. Once, they really did discover an original seal of the United States, missing since the British burned Washington DC in 1814, which someone had bought at a Paris flee market for $20.
The knowledge that I gained over the years has allowed me to swoop in and pick up incredible bargains, everywhere from Sotheby?s auctions to local garage sales.
Some of my better deals have included buying a pair of prewar German Zeiss binoculars for $10 (I recently saw an identical pair inside U-505 at the Museum of Science and Industry in Chicago). I also managed to score three cases of 1909 and 1915 Massandra port and sherry, last own by Czar Nicholas II of Russia, for $25 a bottle. Current market price: $1,000. The taste is amazing.
So it was with some amusement that I noticed yesterday that the show recently made its greatest find in history. A man in Tulsa, Oklahoma appeared with five tea cups that he had purchased at a local antique store in the seventies for a couple of bucks. The Chinese antiquities expert was aghast, informing the surprised owner that these dated from the 17th century, were made from extremely rare rhinoceros horn, and were estimate to worth $1-$1.5 million.
It turns out that the previous record for an object was also Chinese, some? $1 million for some carved jade bowls.It has long been a rule of thumb that when a country sees of burst of strong economic growth, its antiques rise in value. I saw this happen to Japanese screens, swords, and woodblock prints in the seventies and eighties during their economic boom, and it is happening now with Islamic antiquities, thanks to the high price of oil. In the meantime, I will continue to visit the local garage sales with a sharp eye. I wonder about that copy of the Declaration of Independence I have lining an attic drawer upstairs. Could it be the real thing?
How about $300,000 Each?
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/Antique-Road-Show.jpg326433Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2013-07-16 01:04:492013-07-16 01:04:49Knowing the Price of Everything and the Value of Nothing
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