Global Market Comments
March 13, 2018
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(WHY LITHIUM IS ABOUT TO REPLACE OIL),
(SQM), (ALM), (FMC), (MLNLF),
(THERE ARE NO GURUS),
(A COW BASED ECONOMICS LESSON)
Global Market Comments
March 13, 2018
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(WHY LITHIUM IS ABOUT TO REPLACE OIL),
(SQM), (ALM), (FMC), (MLNLF),
(THERE ARE NO GURUS),
(A COW BASED ECONOMICS LESSON)
Mad Hedge Technology Letter
March 13, 2018
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(WHY YOUR HATED CABLE COMPANY IS ABOUT TO DIE),
(AMZN), (NFLX), (APPL), (DIS), (GOOGL), (TWTR), (FB), (ROKU)
Look at any survey of the most despised companies in America and there is always one industry that comes out on top: cable companies such as AT&T, (T), Comcast (CMCSA) and Charter Communications (CHTR).
We all have been reading about cord cutting and the death of cable for years. However, this trend is about to vastly accelerate.
The death of cable is upon us in full force and streaming plays should represent a heavy weight in any aggressive portfolio.
Jerry Seinfeld and David Letterman are two Hollywood names gracing the broadband waves of Netflix (NFLX). Add one more superstar name to the mix as that of former President of the United States, Barack Obama.
Obama has tentatively agreed to produce new content centered on inspirational people and their stories. Add in former First Lady Michelle Obama who also will play a part in compiling the new content. You can expect about half the country to watch it.
Amazon (AMZN) and Apple (APPL) were lining up deals before Netflix scored the arrangement. Music streaming giant Spotify, set to go public later this month, also has a deal on the table with former President Obama to be the face of a presidential playlist.
The bidding war for top content is hugely bearish for traditional media companies such as Disney (DIS), which is subject to stringent regulation from the FCC (Federal Communications Commission). Disney stock has been languishing in the doldrums for years, peaking at $120 in mid-2015. It is still hovering around the $100 level 3 years later.
The recent risk-off move in (DIS) can be attributed to one horrific segment of the business that was its main growth driver for 25 years - ESPN.
In the 1990s, ESPN was a media darling for the ages. It could do no wrong. Its base, mainly young tech-savvy males, loved every piece of content from the daily sports news to the live games that permeated its channels.
Then cord cutters started appearing out of the woodwork and swiftly migrated to (NFLX)'s attractive pricing at $8.99 per month in 2015, which sure beats cable at upward of $100 per month.
Better late than never is that Disney finally announced a unique proprietary streaming service straight to the consumer in 2018. The three years of inaction put the company three years further back in the quickly growing broadband streaming revolution. Disney also stated it will pull all (DIS) content from competitor (NFLX).
Legacy companies have a two-pronged problem: saddled with irrevocable multi-year commitments absorbing capital and a behemoth legacy business in marginal decline that is a headache to shift. Asking the Titanic to suddenly transform into a fancy speedboat is a tough ask for anyone.
The red flags are unbridled in the cable universe. Fox Networks plans to readjust hourly ad load down to 2 minutes within 2 years! Fox has some work to do to whittle down the ad load because last year's hourly ad load clocked in at 13 minutes. Advertising executives indeed feel aghast in what will be known as the first phase of the death of cable. This machination is unquestionably bullish for social media platforms such as Facebook (FB) and Twitter (TWTR) because net ad loads are migrating to millennial eyeballs on those platforms.
Millennials, currently the biggest consumer-ready demographic, are the most advertising-adverse generation ever to exist. Stories of binge-watching (NFLX) are rife, and live sports shows increasingly are found pirated online from Eastern Europe.
TV ratings are rapidly declining to the degree that bottom line growth will be materially harmed. Traditional media is experiencing a cocktail of lethal headwinds that could wipe it out totally. Simply put, commercials negatively affect the user experience and the plethora of options in the streaming world makes it a buyers' market.
(NFLX)'s hyper-accelerating subscriber growth begets higher growth. Love them or hate them, (NFLX) and (AMZN) business models are the architectural blueprints applied to every tech stock. To be condemned as a legacy business is the most damning label in the tech industry.
Hiring Bill Ackman is probably the only move that would be worse. Anyone not betting the ranch on broadband streaming is quickly banished to investor purgatory with the likes of GameStop Corp. (GME).
Tech is starting to get priced as a luxury. Gone are the days of disheveled mopheads joining forces in a shabby Los Altos, Calif., garage as did Steve Jobs and Steve Wozniak. Groundbreaking tech is power, and big tech knows it.
As much as I would like to rain on (NFLX)'s parade, I cannot. Investors only look at one number as they do with many other tech companies. The company's license to spend gobs of cash on new content revolves around subscriber growth.
Last year was full of whispers that (NFLX)'s domestic mojo would start to neutralize. Quarter over quarter estimates came in at 1.29 million new domestic subscribers, and international estimates were expected to net 5.10 million. Domestic net adds were almost 35% higher than guidance at 1.98 million.
International net add growth is viewed as the source of a long runway, and it did not disappoint, beating QOQ guidance by 20% with 6.36 million new net adds. Overall, total net adds beat QOQ estimates by 23.2% and is the biggest reason (NFLX) is up over 70% in 2018.
Where does this all lead?
Do not buy any media stock without a thriving streaming business. The shift in buying power from baby boomers to tech-reliant younger generations will exacerbate cord cutting, and users will naturally deviate toward online streaming.
The most popular streaming services in 2017 were (NFLX) and (AMZN), which should be part of every investor's portfolio. Google (GOOGL) has YouTube, which also is no pushover. Another wild card is smart TV company Roku (ROKU), which is the (FB) of smart TVs and procures revenue from ad load. (ROKU)'s active accounts are up 44% year over year, and revenue per user has increased more than 30% YOY.
If you look down the road, the legacy companies that can smoothly transform into streaming content companies will be rewarded by investors but stocks such as (DIS) are in a wait-and-see mode.
While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more
Global Market Comments
March 12, 2018
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, or THE TEFLON MARKET THAT WON'T QUIT),
(AAPL), (FB), (FXE), (TLT), (FXY),
(HOW TO HANDLE THE FRIDAY, MARCH 16 OPTIONS EXPIRATION), (FXE), (FB)
Note to Paid Subscribers: We migrated to a new dedicated server last weekend to accommodate a much larger volume of business and greater paid content. This will require you to login in to the site. If you lost your login ID or password please send an email to Nancy at customer support at support@madhedgefundtrader.com and put ?Login? in the subject line.
I hate using worn out, hackneyed cliches like "Teflon market" or "Goldilocks," but it was one heck of a Teflon Goldilocks market last week.
The FANG's truly went bananas.
Stocks had every excuse for the wheels to fall off.
The president's chief economic advisor resigned. The US declared the most ferocious trade war since the 1930's, which should cut US GDP growth by 0.5%. The administration appeared to be lurching from one disaster to the next.
And it all turned out to be yet another fabulous buying opportunity, and a chance to go solidly "RISK ON".
As I expected.
It is another demonstration of an old trading nostrum that has served me faithfully for half a century. If you throw bad news on a market and it fails to fall, you buy it.
With the buckets of bad news poured on the market it should go ballistic.
And so it has.
If you were long technology stocks like (INTC), (AAPL), (FB), short US Treasury bonds (TLT), and short the Euro (FXE), as I have been begging, pleading, and beseeching you to do, you just saw one of your best trading weeks of the year.
And guess what? It's going to get a lot better. We still have two months of seasonal buying before stocks depart for the normal summer correction. And you can make a lot of money in two months.
What really poured gasoline on the fire was a blockbuster February Nonfarm Payroll Report, up some 313,000. That is 120,000 over expectations. The Headline Unemployment Rate remained steady at 4.1% a ten year low.
The real crusher was that this frenetic rate of job creation caused Hourly Wages to go up only 0.1%, or essential zero, meaning that inflation is nowhere to be seen anywhere. It was a number that left economists everywhere scratching their heads.
The December and January reports were revised upward by 54,000 jobs.
Construction was up by 61,000, Retail was up 50,000, and Professional and Business Services up by 50,000. No doubt a big chunk of this was prompted by deficit financed tax cuts.
The only sector showing job losses was in Information Technology, down some 12,000.
The U-6 broader "discouraged worker" jobless rate stayed at 8.2%.
Overall, the total size of the workforce jumped by 806,000, the largest gain since 1983.
It was essentially a perfect report.
I would be remiss in not remembering the nine-year anniversary of the end of the stock market crash on March 9, 2009.
In those days, the S&P 500 futures were wildly swinging at 100 points a pop. The Nonfarm Payroll Reports were then printing horrifying losses of 700,000 a month.
As the bad news always seemed to come out on Sundays, you could buy a put option at the Friday afternoon close and it would be up 400% at the Monday morning opening. We raked the profits in. Those were the days!
I turned bullish a week later and have remained so ever since. How times have changed.
It was another great week for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader Alert Service, almost clawing our way all the way back to another new all-time high. We only need to make another 1.95% and we'll be there, hopefully sometime next week.
A double position in Apple (AAPL) really gave us a turbocharger, with that stock just short of a new all-time high, and up $10 from our last "BUY". The Iron Condor in Facebook (FB) will expire at its maximum profit point on Friday.
We already took profits in our short in the US Treasury bond market (TLT) on a quick 48-hour turnaround. The short position in the Euro is firing on all cylinders.
Mercifully, we got out of your short in the Japanese yen (FXY) at cost as a risk control measure. It looks like those who kept the positon will get the maximum profit there anyway.
Having survived the February nightmare, I now feel invincible.
This coming week is fairly subdued on the data front.
On Monday, March 12 nothing of note is released.
On Tuesday, March 13 at 8:30 AM we learn the all-important February Consumer Price Index to see if inflation really is asleep. This has recently become one of the most important numbers of the month.
On Wednesday, March 14, at 8:30 AM EST, we get February Retail Sales.
Thursday, March 15 leads with the Empire State Manufacturing Survey at 8:30 AM EST. Weekly Jobless Claims are announced at the same time.
On Friday, March 16 at 8:30 AM EST we get the February Housing Starts.
At the close we undergo a Quadruple Witching in the options market with several monthly series expiring today.
At 1:00 PM we receive the Baker-Hughes Rig Count, which saw a small rise of only one last week.
As for me, I am going to be shopping for a new Steinway Grand Piano. I have made so much money this year that it's time to upgrade and go for the max with a Model D concert grand piano!
Good luck and good trading!
Mad Hedge Technology Letter
March 12, 2018
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(WHERE ALL THAT TAX CUT MONEY WENT)
(CISCO), (MSCC), (MCHP), (SWKS), (JNPR), (AMAT), (PANW), (UBER), (AMZN)
We have the good fortune to have several options positions left that expire on Friday, March 16 in five trading days and I just want to explain to the newbies how to best maximize their profits.
This involves the:
Currency Shares Euro Trust ETF (FXE) March 16 $120-$123 vertical bear put debit spread
The Facebook (FB) March 16 $155-$165 vertical bull call debit spread
The Facebook (FB) March 16 $190-$195 vertical bear put debit spread
Provided that some we don't have a monster "RISK OFF" move in the market over the next few days (war with North Korea?), which could cause bonds to rally big time, these position should all expire at their maximum profit point below.
Your profit on each position should amount to the following:
(FXE) put spread - $2,000 or 20.00% in 18 trading days
(FB) call spread - $1,800 or 17.64% in 33 trading days
(FB) put spread - $1,266 or 12.35% in 22 trading days
Many of you have already emailed me asking what to do with these winning positions.
The answer is very simple. You take your left hand, grab your right wrist, pull it behind your neck and pat yourself on the back for a job well done.
You don't have to do anything.
Your broker (are they still called that?) will automatically use your long positions to cover your short positions, cancelling out the total holdings.
The profit will be credited to your account on Monday morning March 19, and the margin freed up.
Some firms charge you a modest $10 or $15 fee for performing this service.
If you don't see the cash show up in your account on Monday, get on the blower immediately.
Although the expiration process is now supposed to be fully automated, occasionally mistakes do occur. Better to sort out any confusion before losses ensue.
I don't usually run positions into expiration like this, preferring to take profits two weeks ahead of time, as the risk reward is no longer that favorable.
But we have an excess of cash right now, and I don't see any other great entry points for the moment.
Better to keep the cash working and duck the double commissions. This time being a pig paid off handsomely.
If you want to wimp out and close the position before the expiration, it may be expensive to do so.
Keep in mind that the liquidity in the options market disappears, and the spreads substantially widen, when a security has only hours, or minutes until expiration on Friday. So if you plan to exit, do so well into the final expiration.
This is known in the trade as the "expiration risk."
One way or the other, I'm sure you'll do OK, as long as I am looking over your shoulder, as I will be.
I am going to hang back and wait for good entry points before jumping back in. It's all about getting that "Buy low, sell high" thing going.
I'm looking to cherry pick my new positions going into yearend.
Take your winnings and go out and buy yourself a well-earned dinner. Or use it to pay your upcoming 2017 income tax bill.
It's probably going to be a big one, given how much money you made trading this year.
Well done, and on to the next trade.
I bet you are wondering where all that money from the tax cuts is going.
Believe it or not, the number one destination of this new windfall is technology companies, not just the stocks, but entire companies.
In fact, the takeover boom in Silicon Valley has already started, and it is rapidly accelerating.
The only logical conclusion in 2018 is that tech firms are about to get a lot more expensive. I'll explain exactly why.
The corporate cash glut is pushing up prices for unrealized M&A activity in 2018. U.S. firms accumulated an overseas treasure trove of around $2.6 trillion and the capital is spilling back into the States with a herd type mentality.
I have chewed the fat with many CEO's about their cash pile road map. All mirrored each other to a T - strategic acquisition and share buy backs, period. The acquisition effect will be felt through all channels of the tech arterial system in 2018.
As the global race to acquire the best next generation technology heats up, domestic mergers could pierce the 400-deal threshold after a lukewarm 2017.
Apple alone boomeranged back over $250 billion with hopes of selective mergers and share buy backs. Cisco (CSCO), Microsoft (MSFT), and Google (GOOGL) were also in the running for most cash repatriated.
The tech behemoths are eager to make transformative injections into security, big data, semiconductor chips, and SaaS (service as a software) among others.
Hint: you want to own stocks in all of these areas.
U-turns from legacy technology firms hawking desktop computers and HDD's (Hard Disk Drive) suddenly realize they are behind the eight ball.
M&A activity will naturally tilt towards firms dabbling in earlier-stage software and 5G supported technology. This flourishing trend will reshape autonomous vehicles and IoT (Internet of Things) products.
The dilemma in waiting to splash on a potential new expansion initiative is that the premium grows with the passage of time. Time is money.
Unleashing the M&A beast comes amid a seismic shift of rapid consolidation in the semiconductor sector. Cut costs to compete now or get crushed under the weight of other rivals that do. Ruthless rules of the game cause ruthless executive decisions.
The best way to cut costs is with immense scale to offer nice shortcuts in the cost structure. Buying another company and using each other's dynamism to find a cheaper way to operate is what Microchip Technology (MCHP) culling of Microsemi Corporation (MSCC) in a deal worth $10bn was about.
Microsemi, based in Aliso Viejo, California, focuses on manufacturing chips for aerospace, military, and communications equipment.
Microchip's focal point is industrial, automobile and IoT products.
Included in the party bag is a built-in $1.8 billion annual revenue stream and over $300 million of dynamic synergies set to take effect within three years. The bonus from this package is the ability to cross- sell chips into unique end markets opposed to selling from scratch.
Each business hyper-targets different segments of the chip industry and are highly complementary.
Benefits of a relatively robust credit market create an environment ripe for mergers. Some 57% of tech management questioned intend to go on the prowl for marquee pieces to add to their arsenal.
No need to mince words here, 2018 is overwhelmingly a sellers' market. Nimble buyers should prepare for price wars as the new normal.
Not only are the plain vanilla big cap tech firms dicing up ways to enter new markets, alternative funds are looking to splash the cash too.
Sovereign wealth funds and private equity firms are ambitiously circling around like vultures above waiting for the prey to show itself.
Private equity firms dove head first into the M&A circus already tripling output for tech firms.
Highlighting the synchronized show of force is no other than Travis Kalanick, the infamous founder of Uber. He christened his own venture capital fund that hopes to invest in e-commerce, real estate and companies located in China and India.
The new fund is called 10100 and is backed by his own money. All this is possible because of Masayoshi Son's, CEO of Softbank, investment in Uber, which netted Kalanick a cool $1.4 billion representing Kalanick's 30% stake in Uber.
It is undeniable that valuations are exorbitant, but all data and chip related companies are selling for huge premiums. The premium will only increase as the applications of 5G, A.I., autonomous cars start to pervade deeper into the mainstream economy.
Adding fuel to the fire is the corporate tax cut. The lower tax rate will rotate more cash into M&A instead of Washington's tax coffers enhancing the ability for companies to stump up for a higher bill. Sellers know firms are bloated with cash and position themselves accordingly.
Highlighting the challenges buyers face in a sellers' market is Microsemi Corp. (MSCC) purchase of PMC-Sierra Inc. Even though PMC-Sierra had been looking to get in bed with Skyworks Solutions Inc. (SWKS) just before the MSCH merger, PMC-Sierra reneged on the acquisition after (SWKS) refused to bump up its original offer.
(SWKS) manufactures radio frequency semiconductors facilitating communication between smartphones, tablets and wireless networks found in iPhones and iPads.
(SWKS) is a prime takeover target for Apple. (SWKS) estimates to have the highest EPS growth over the next 3-5 years for companies not already participating in M&A. Apple (AAPL) could briskly mold this piece into its supply chain. Directly manufacturing chips would be a huge boon for Apple in a chip market in short supply.
In 2013, Japan's Tokyo Electron and Applied Materials (AMAT) angled to become one company called Eteris. This maneuver would have created the world's largest supplier of semiconductor processing equipment.
After two years of regulatory review, the merger was in violation of anti-trust concerns according to the United States. (AMAT), headquartered in Santa Clara, California, is a premium target as equipment is critical to manufacturing semiconductor chips. (AMAT) compete directly with Lam Research (LRCX) who is an absolute gem of a company.
Juniper Networks (JNPR) sells the third most routers and switches used by ISP's (Internet Service Providers). They are also number two in core routers with a 25% market share. Additionally, (JNPR) has a 24.8% market share of the firewall market.
In 2014, Palo Alto Networks (PANW), another takeover target focusing on cybersecurity, paid a $175 million settlement fee for allegedly infringing (JNPR)'s application firewall patents.
In data center security applications, (JNPR) routinely plays second fiddle to Cisco Systems (CSCO). Cisco, the best of breed in this space would benefit by snapping up (JNPR) and integrating their expertise into an expanding network.
Unsurprisingly, health care is the other sector experiencing a tidal wave of M&A and it's not shocking that health care firms accumulated cash hoards abroad too. The dots are all starting to connect.
Firms want to partner with innovative companies. Companies hope to focus on customer demands and build a great user experience that will lead the economy. Health care costs are outrageous in America and Jeff Bezos could flip this industry on its head.
Amazon (AMZN) pursuing lower health costs ultimately will bind these two industries together at the hip and is net positive for the American consumer.
Ride sharing company Uber embarked on a new digital application called Uber Health that book patients who are medically unfit for regular Uber and shuttle them around to hospital facilities.
Health care providers can hail a ride for sick people immediately and are able to make an appointment 30-days in advance. It is a little difficult to move around in a wheel chair, and tech solves problems that stir up zero appetite for most business ventures. Apple is another large cap tech titan keeping close tabs on the health care space.
It's a two-way street with health care companies looking to snap up exceptional tech and vice-versa.
It's practically a game of musical chairs.
Ultimately, Tech M&A is the catch of the day and boosting earnings requires game changing technology. Investors will be kicking themselves for waiting too long, buy now while you can.
When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more
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