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Tag Archive for: (AAPL)

Mad Hedge Fund Trader

How to Execute a Vertical Bull Call Spread

Diary, Free Research, Newsletter

For those readers looking to improve their trading results and create the unfair advantage they deserve, I have posted a training video on How to Execute a Vertical Bull Call Spread.

This is a matched pair of positions in the options market that will be profitable when the underlying security goes up, sideways, or down a small amount in price over a defined limited period of time.

It is the perfect position to have onboard during markets that have declining or low volatility, much like we experienced in 2014, and will almost certainly see again.

I have strapped on quite a few of these across many asset classes this year, and they are a major reason why I am showing positive performance numbers for 2016.

To understand this trade, I will use the example of an Apple trade, which I executed on July 10, 2014. I then felt very strongly that Apple shares would rally into the release of its new iPhone 6 on September 9, 2014.

The same play kicked in again for the iPhone 12 release last October.

So followers of my Trade Alert service received text messages and emails to add the following position:

Buy the Apple (AAPL) August 2014 $85-$90 in-the-money bull call spread at $4.00 or best

To accomplish this, they had to execute the following trades:

Buy 25 August 2014 (AAPL) $85 calls at...............$9.60

Sell short 25 August 2014 (AAPL) $90 calls at......$5.60

Net Cost:...............................................................$4.00

This gets traders into the position at $4.00, which cost them $10,000 ($4.00 per option X 100 shares per option contract X 25 contracts).

The vertical part of the description of this trade refers to the fact that both options have the same underlying security (AAPL), the same expiration date (August 15, 2014) and only different strike prices ($85 and $90).

The breakeven point can be calculated as follows:

$85.00 - Lower strike price
+$4.00 - Price paid for the vertical call spread
$89.00 - Break even Apple share price

Another way of explaining this is that the call spread you bought for $4.00 is worth $5.00 at expiration on August 15, giving you a total return of 25% in 26 trading days. Not bad!

The great thing about these positions is that your risk is defined. You can't lose any more than the amount of capital you put up, in this case, $10,000.

If Apple goes bankrupt, we get a flash crash, or suffer another 9/11 type event, you will never get a margin call from your broker in the middle of the night asking for more money. This is why hedge funds like spreads so much.

As long as Apple traded at or above $89 on the August 14 expiration date, you would have made a profit on this trade.

As it turns out, my read on Apple shares proved dead-on, and the shares closed at $97.98 on expiration day or a healthy $8.98 above my breakeven point.

The total profit on the trade came to:

($1.00 profit X 100 shares X 25 contracts) = $2,500

This means that the position earned a 25% profit on your $10,000 investment in a little more than a month. Now you know why I like Vertical Bull Call Spreads so much. So do my followers.

Occasionally, these things don't work and wheels fall off. As hard as it may be to believe, I am not infallible.

So, if I'm wrong and I tell you to buy a vertical bull call spread, and the shares fall not a little, but a lot, you will lose money. On those rare occasions when that happens, I'll shoot out a Trade Alert to you with stop-loss instructions before the damage gets out of control.

That stop loss is usually at the lower strike price when there is still a lot of time to run to expiration, as the position still has a lot of time value remaining, and the upper strike price when there are only a few days left until expiration.

The most I have ever lost on paper with one of these vertical bull call spreads was 50% of my capital, or $5,000 on a $10,000 investment. That’s because the trade was with both long and short options which maintain time value, no matter what the market does. I also never put more than 10% of my portfolio into a single position, so the paper loss on the entire capital was only 5%.

But that was on one of the worst days in market history when the Dow Average opened down 1,300 points. As it turned out, I kept my position and ended up making the maximum profit by expiration day.

To watch the video edition of How to Execute a Vertical Bull Call Spread, complete with more detailed instructions on how to execute the position with your own online platform, please click here.

Vertical Bull Call Spreads Are the Way to Go in a Crazily Oversold Market

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/bull-figure-e1591705319591.png 247 450 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2023-04-05 11:02:022023-04-05 14:53:39How to Execute a Vertical Bull Call Spread
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

March 31, 2023

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
March 31, 2023
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(BUY NOW PAY WHENEVER)
(AAPL), (AFRM), (MSFT)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2023-03-31 17:04:372023-03-31 23:36:07March 31, 2023
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Buy Now Pay Whenever

Tech Letter

Apple is stepping into the "buy now, pay later" industry and these lateral moves epitomize the state of the tech sector today.

For a company known for its dazzling innovation, this doesn’t do much to move the needle, but honestly, it doesn’t really need to recreate the wheel at this point either.

"Buy now, pay later" focuses on the bottom feeder consumer who can’t afford to pay full price for something and must elongate the payment cycle.

These are the people who are high-risk consumers that otherwise wouldn’t be able to buy an iPhone without the subsidy.  

The good news is that Apple doesn’t need to innovate to stay on top because many other companies aren’t innovating either. The bar is quite low these days.

I would say that Microsoft is probably the one that takes the lead with its artificial intelligence investments, but the jury is also out on that as well with Italy banning its new service.  

Without much innovation going on, Apple is moving onto others' turf and leveraging their whole ecosystem against weaker competition like Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM).

Launching Apple Pay Later, which allows Apple Pay users to split purchases into four interest-free payments paid over six weeks without an additional fee.

Apple conducts a soft credit check, which reviews credit scores to understand one’s current credit.

If approved, the Pay Later option is shown when you use Apple Pay online or make in-app purchases on iPhones and iPads. Purchases using the new service will be authenticated using Face ID, Touch ID, or a passcode.

Aside from Affirm, other competitors include Afterpay, Klarna, and PayPal’s “Pay in 4” option. Here’s how Apple Pay Later compares.

I do believe this is a net positive for Apple even if it does increase the risk of non-performing loans.

Apple would easily be able to absorb these losses if they delivered material harm to the company simply because the balance sheet is so healthy.

Apple has been the recipient of the flight to safety trade along with Microsoft during this technology stock melt up.

The expectation of no more interest rates has been the trigger for new capital allocation into Apple stock.

I fully expect Apple’s stock to perform well during a time when liquidity has been poured into the system by the Fed.

They are doing this because the Fed is prioritizing global systemic banking risk as the number one risk to the market.

This has caused the Fed to rid themselves of quantitative tightening meaning the goalposts have suddenly widened for the tech behemoths and Apple is merely obliging to the easier conditions.

Remember, it is more about conditions in the short term than anything else which is why liquidity is so important to share prices.

Therefore, Apple rolling out a “meh” business like "buy now, pay later," which could possibly turn into a "buy now, pay never" business, is not really a big deal.

Rolling out with essentially the same phone over and over again with different colors also doesn’t matter either.

Conversely, this will do material damage to companies like Affirm, Klarna, Afterpay, and PayPal.

Buy the dip in the best and brightest in tech. Apple is obviously one of those candidates.

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2023-03-31 17:02:402023-04-25 15:50:00Buy Now Pay Whenever
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

March 27, 2023

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
March 27, 2023
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(SMART MONEY HAS LEFT)
(AAPL), (MSFT), (FRC)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2023-03-27 15:04:232023-03-27 16:49:49March 27, 2023
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Smart Money Has Left

Tech Letter

The Federal Reserve is moving deeper into a trapped corner because the Fed is facing inflation that they haven’t fixed yet.

That’s not a problem so far as they are gradually lifting rates to cure it, but what happens when a systemic event occurs and they are forced to pivot when inflation is still at 6%?

This is why I have always championed just doing one big rate raise to get it over with.

The longer the Fed draws it out, the more chance they have to pivot when inflation is still toxic to the consumer.

Why do I care about all this?

The systemic event has arrived and that could mean that precious dollars are steered away from tech shares in April and are funneled over to the banking sector where the smart money is buying the dip in “too big to fail” banking stocks.

Since the beginning of March, three U.S. banks have failed and others — most notably California-based First Republic (FRC) — are teetering on the edge amid deposit outflows.

All else equal, in a banking crisis, investors would expect the Fed to cut rates to ease pressure on the financial system.

Since 1977, the Federal Reserve has worked to fulfill a "dual mandate" of achieving maximum employment and stable prices.

Tech stocks had a strong initial bounce from the banking shock, but that doesn’t mean it will last.

I took profits in some of my tech positions and the pricing action in the last few days has been poor to the upside.

I do believe we could experience a transitory sideways move which might be followed by an earnings scare that could induce a short-term pullback.

Tech has done remarkably well in the first few months of the year and the grind up during the banking crisis has shown resilience.

However, where is the use case for the incremental investor in tech?

Sure, we got some nice bounces from Facebook and Google cutting staff.

Getting leaner is certainly better.

Then there was the OpenAI bounce with artificial intelligence going from a fad to the new buzzword.

Microsoft and Apple have separated themselves from the crowd.

I am concerned about the breadth of the tech sector because many growth companies are starting to dip and dip some more.

It’s true that many investors are on the sidelines because they believe that the banking crisis has just started.

At the end of the day wasn’t it Russia that was supposed to preside over a failing economy susceptible to bank runs?

Ironically enough, by the end of 2021, as a result of high oil prices and a post-pandemic recovery, Russia's annual growth rate exceeded 5%. While the rate was expected to slow down in 2022, prewar forecasters would pin it at around 3 percent.

After the buy-the-dip in banks crowd moved out of the safety tech trade, we could be in for a sideways correction that could lead to some downside risk.

It doesn’t help that the Western financial system has creaky knees and it seems at this point tech might have to navigate around bank blowups in the short term.

The real safety tech trade continues to be Apple and Microsoft because the banking contagion has effectively led to the death of tech startups and small caps.

 

federal reserve

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2023-03-27 15:02:152023-04-02 02:25:15Smart Money Has Left
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

March 22, 2023

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
March 22, 2023
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(THE MAD HEDGE TRADERS & INVESTORS SUMMIT VIDEOS ARE UP!)
(THE BARBELL PLAY WITH BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY),
(BRKA), (BRKA), (BAC), (KO), (AXP), (VZ), (BK) (USB), (TLT), (AAPL), (MRK), (ABBV), (CVX), (GM), (PCC), (BNSF)

 

CLICK HERE to download today's position sheet.

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2023-03-22 10:06:222023-03-22 10:33:09March 22, 2023
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

March 17, 2023

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
March 17, 2023
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(HIGHLY BULLISH FOR TECH STOCKS)
(AAPL), (GOOGL), (ARKK)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2023-03-17 16:04:382023-03-17 16:58:41March 17, 2023
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Highly Bullish for Tech Stocks

Tech Letter

Up to $2 trillion in liquidity into the banking system should do the job in the financial sector.

This is highly bullish tech shares and the growth-based tech stocks will experience the best windfalls from this psychological and fiscal reset of the American banking system.

It’s true tech stocks did need a little help as 2022 was really a struggle for them, but 2023 has been brighter with the “buy the dip” mentality back with vengeance.

After the gangbuster January, we’ve been waiting for some direction as to what will happen to tech stocks and now we have gotten the signals.

In short, tech stocks will go higher.

Now, I truly believe that the buy-the-dip mentality will become firmly entrenched and investors should dig deep to execute bullish positions as I expect tech stocks to roar ahead.

Many know about the FDIC, SPIC insured deposits of up to $250,000, but the Fed has rolled out the red carpet for the banking system and lent money to the banks that even don’t need it.

Banks borrowed up to $350 billion in cheap loans from the Fed.

Nearly $143 billion went to holding companies for two major banks that failed over the past week, Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, triggering widespread alarm in financial markets.

Ironically, public tech stocks benefited the most from the government helping the financial industry and it was a crypto-biased bank that bled itself to edge of catastrophe.

Although this creates a moral hazard, I am not really in the business to tell someone what is right or what is wrong in terms of systemic risk.

But knowing that the Fed has the backs of the banks and stock market no matter what is highly bullish for tech stocks in the short-term.

This opens up liquidity like a reservoir opening up its water channels.

Expect a lot more capital sloshing around the financial system that will naturally fall into tech stocks from the boring behemoths to the cash-burning peons.

The tide will lift most boats in this situation.

The bank term financing program should be able to inject enough reserves into the banking system to reduce the reserve deficit and reverse the tightening that took place last year.

I anticipate that the new program will be attractive to a wide range of institutions, apart from those currently facing liquidity problems.

The longer this program sustains itself the better for tech stocks.

Say goodbye to quantitative tightening.

The era of balance sheet reduction is now dead as the Fed is too worried to rock the boat.

Going from QT to printing money which is what this discount window effectively was has stunned the market to the upside.  

Moving forward, expect rate hike expectations to dissipate and lower bond yields which will contribute to another tech market rally and in turn a lower dollar.

Most of everything will have a high chance to deliver decent tech gains from ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) to the Apple’s (AAPL) and Google’s (GOOGL) of the world.

When the Fed wants to widen the goalposts this wide, you don’t need Ronaldo to score a goal.

Buy the dip in tech until we truly see a systemic credit risk or if inflation comes back shooting past the first pandemic peak to form a double top.

 

 

bullish tech

 

bullish tech

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2023-03-17 16:02:032023-03-30 23:34:30Highly Bullish for Tech Stocks
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

March 16, 2023

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
March 16, 2023
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(WHO’S REALLY THE BOSS?)
(ILMN), (AAPL), (TWX), (MDLZ), (CVX)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2023-03-16 20:02:452023-03-16 20:22:22March 16, 2023
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Who's Really the Boss

Biotech Letter

Carl Icahn—the legendary investor known for toppling corporate behemoths and taking charge of their destinies—has swooped in to save Illumina (ILMN) from its own misguided move.

To salvage what’s left of the promising biotechnology company, he has emerged with a plan for shareholders: halt their recent deal with Grail—a cancer-screening firm that Icahn and his faithful followers want nothing more than to see dropped. Part of his plan is to nominate three people to sit on the board of Illumina. The move sent shares of ILMN soaring – no doubt leaving Icahn feeling pretty victorious himself.

For additional background, Icahn isn’t an ordinary businessman and investor. He is the founder, chairman, and majority shareholder of Icahn Enterprises, a diversified conglomerate holding company based in New York City, formerly American Real Estate Partners. He is one of the world's most successful and influential investors, having made billions through his investments in companies such as Apple (AAPL), Time Warner Inc. (TWX), RJR Nabisco (now Mondelez (MDLZ)), and Texaco (CVX). His extensive corporate takeover activities have resulted in him being dubbed "The King of Corporate Raiders."

As an activist investor, he is an individual or a member of a group of investors who uses their financial resources to directly influence the actions and decisions of organizations, often by purchasing shares in the business.

They often demand changes to corporate structure and strategy changes, board composition, and executive compensation practices. Needless to say, activist investors have a significant impact on a company, as they typically target companies that are undervalued and push for changes that can increase their value.

This is an extremely timely announcement for Illumina since the company’s value plummeted from $70 billion in 2021 to $31 billion in 2023. However, the biotech isn’t going down without a fight.

The acquisition of Grail by Illumina was first announced in September 2020, and it has been a subject of discussion and scrutiny since then. The proposed deal involves Illumina buying out the remaining stake in Grail that it does not already own, for a total of $8 billion in cash and stock.

Illumina believes that its plan to acquire Grail is a significant development in the field of genomics and cancer diagnostics. At the moment, Illumina is a leading provider of genomics technology, while Grail is a biotechnology company focused on developing a blood test for early cancer detection.

The acquisition is expected to create significant synergies between the two companies. Illumina's expertise in genomic sequencing technology combined with Grail's cutting-edge liquid biopsy technology could potentially lead to the development of a powerful and efficient cancer detection tool.

The acquisition has, however, faced some challenges, including regulatory hurdles. The Federal Trade Commission (FTC) expressed concerns that the acquisition could lead to Illumina having a monopoly in the market for sequencing machines, which are used in Grail's liquid biopsy tests. As a result, the FTC filed a lawsuit to block the acquisition.

Despite the challenges, Illumina and Grail remain committed to the deal, and in December 2021, they announced that they had reached a settlement with the FTC. The settlement requires Illumina to sell its existing liquid biopsy technology to a third party and abide by certain conditions to prevent any potential anti-competitive effects of the acquisition.

All things considered, it is undeniable that the acquisition of Grail by Illumina has the potential to revolutionize cancer diagnostics and improve patient outcomes. However, the regulatory hurdles demonstrate the importance of ensuring mergers and acquisitions do not harm competition and ultimately negatively impact consumers.

Overall, Illumina is a promising biotech with much room to grow. It pioneered the development of next-generation sequencing (NGS) technology, which revolutionized the field of genomics. NGS allows researchers to sequence large amounts of DNA quickly and at a lower cost than traditional Sanger sequencing methods.

NGS works by breaking the DNA into small fragments and sequencing them simultaneously. These short reads of DNA are then assembled to create a whole genome. Illumina's NGS technology is based on a proprietary sequencing-by-synthesis method, which uses flourescently labeled nucleotides to detect and record the sequence of DNA bases as they are incorporated into a growing DNA chain.

NGS has many applications in genomics research, including identifying genetic mutations, studying gene expression patterns, and characterizing the microbiome. The technology has also played a critical role in advancing precision medicine and personalized healthcare.

Illumina's pioneering work in NGS has allowed the company to establish a dominant market position in the genomics industry and has driven significant innovation in the field of genomics.

Thanks to this biotech’s products, the cost of a complete human genome analysis dropped from the hundreds of millions range in 2001 to less than $1000 today. More notably, the company projects the price to go lower and be below $200 when it releases its new services.

Being hailed as a market leader is a well-deserved description for the company. After all, Illumina quadrupled its revenues in the past 10 years and continues to deliver decent results.

Icahn’s move to take on Illumina offers a fresh and seemingly more promising perspective regarding the company’s direction. He believes Illumina can unlock value by spinning off non-core businesses, returning cash to shareholders, reducing costs, and improving operational efficiency. However, Illumina's management resisted Icahn's calls for a sale and instead focused on investing in research and development to drive growth.

Still, Icahn's targeting of Illumina is likely driven by his belief that the company is undervalued and not maximizing shareholder value. While it will take time before anything gets resolved, what’s apparent is that Illumina doesn’t hold complete freedom when it comes to decision-making, which would inevitably hurt its future success.

 

illumina company

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