To the dozens of subscribers in Afghanistan, Somalia, Iraq, Syria, and the surrounding ships at sea, thank you for your service!
I think it is very wise to use your free time to read my letter and learn about financial markets in preparation for an entry into the financial services when you muster out.
And if Donald Trump gets his way with a 10% rise in defense spending and a 30% cut in the State Department budget, it looks like there are going to be a lot more of you abroad to take advantage of my services.
Nobody is going to call you a baby killer and shun you, as they did when I returned from Southeast Asia four decades ago. In fact, employers have been given fantastic tax breaks and other incentives to hire you.
I have but one request. No more subscriptions with .mil addresses, please. The Defense Department, the CIA, the NSA, Homeland Security, and the FBI do not look kindly on private newsletters entering the military network, even the investment kind.
If you think civilian spam filters are tough, watch out for the military kind! And no, I promise that there are no secret messages embedded with the stock tips. “BUY” really does mean “BUY.” “Sell” means “Sell” too.
If I did not know the higher ups at these agencies, as well as the Joints Chiefs of Staff, I might be bouncing off the walls in a cell at Guantanamo by now wearing an orange jumpsuit.
It also helps that many of the mid-level officers at these organizations have made a fortune with their meager government retirement funds following my advice. All I can say is that if the Baghdad Stock Exchange ever become liquid, I'm going to own it.
Where would you guess the greatest concentration of readers The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader is found? New York? Nope. London? Wrong. Chicago? Not even close.
Try a ten-mile radius centered on Langley, Virginia, by a large margin.
The funny thing is, half of the subscribing names coming in are Russian. I haven't quite figured that one out yet.
Did we hire the entire KGB at the end of the cold war? If we did, it was a great move. Those guys were good. That includes you, Yuri.
So, keep up the good work, and fight the good fight. But please, only subscribe to my letter with personal Gmail, Yahoo, or Hotmail addresses. That way my life can become a lot more boring.
Oh, and by the way, Langley, you're behind on your bill. Please pay up, pronto, and I don't want to hear whining about any damn budget cuts!
I Want My Mad Hedge Fund Trader!
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/army-cig-e1498672458898.jpg393557MHFTRhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMHFTR2019-05-02 01:06:372019-05-01 15:31:53Notice to Military Subscribers
The company that Steve Jobs built is an earnings thoroughbred with money growing out of their ears.
Apple’s earnings report was real confirmation that Apple’s pivot into a services company is overshadowing its drop in iPhone revenue.
They even elevated forward guidance for next quarter.
Being an economic bellwether that it is, the earnings success could point to more bullish momentum for not only the tech sector but the broader market.
The tech strength showing up in the squiggly figures of the sector’s earnings report indicates that the expected earnings recession will be more of a pause rather than a dip that was first expected.
The next bout of bullish strength that permeates through the market will take many tech stocks to higher highs.
The numbers backed up this premise with Q2 2018 revenue from the services category comprising 20% of total revenue in Q2 2019—a rubber stamp of confidence that this isn’t a false dawn after service sales only comprised of 16% of total revenue the prior year.
The death of the smartphone is upon us with most people who can afford a premium one already using one as we speak with no intentions for a quick refresh.
Apple’s strategy of selling expensive iPhones to Chinese nationals is over with iPhone sales getting slaughtered by 17% to about $31 billion—an accelerated decline for a product that has been hamstrung by smartphone rivals in China offering better phones for lower prices.
The $11.5 billion from its services division and the end result of registering revenue in the high end of its $55-59 billion projection for the quarter is a stark shift from the underperformance of 2018 when Chinese iPhones sales were so bad that they stopped reporting the segment altogether.
The $58 billion of quarterly revenue was still a drop of 5% YOY which included $31 billion in iPhone sales, a shell of its former self when they generated $37.5 billion in iPhone sales the same quarter in 2018.
The disruption in handing off the baton to the services brigade caused outsized ructions inside the company causing the stock to plummet 20% last winter.
Wearables put the cherry on top of the sundae expanding at a rate close to 50% during the quarter with AirPods and Apple Watch leading the charge as best sellers.
Apple plans to inject $75 billion on share repurchases and it also approved a 75-cent dividend per share, a 5% increase.
These repurchases could boost Apple’s stock by up to 7% per year offering investors another compelling reason to hold this stock long-term.
The upgraded dimensions of Apple’s business model could finally give investors peace of mind as they wean themselves from Chinese iPhone sales.
Moving forward, the relationship between American tech and the Chinese consumer will be contentious at best, and battling with Huawei on its turf is not a sensible strategy.
Highlighting this weakness were the Greater Chinese revenue registering only $10.2 billion in sales, down from the Q2 2018 tally of $13 billion.
On the positive side, the Chinese weakness is already baked into the pastry ceding way for the services narrative to move to the forefront.
Generating more incremental revenue from its existing base of 1.4 billion Apple accounts is the order of the day.
I initially believed Apple would make major headway in the services segment and foresaw services composing about 25% of total revenue.
However, I didn’t believe they would be able to achieve this for a few years, and the surprise to investors is the velocity of change to the upside in its services business.
Adding the new magazine subscription for $9.99 to its platform is another feather in their cap even though it doesn’t transform the industry.
Respondents to emarketer.com made it widely known that Apple as a platform was the second most important platform for news publishers behind Google offering a great opportunity to carve out more income from their new news app.
Apple is still in dire need of attractive video options for its content basket and assets on the market are plenty from live sports, shows, movies, and video games.
My money would be on Cook to prefer video games as a viable growth driver because it resonates deeply with younger audiences from abroad and avoids the polarity of controversial content which societies are increasingly sensitive to.
Another option would be to dive headfirst into the enterprise software business moving towards a Salesforce (CRM) model selecting cloud companies à la carte to integrate into a business cloud.
Many Apple device holders already wield their devices for their own online businesses, and this would represent a solid growth driver if they could make their services more business-friendly.
What can we expect moving forward?
In short, less iPhone sales and more service revenue as a proportion of total revenue.
If Apple can carefully choreograph its downshift of iPhones sales that doesn’t destroy overall revenue and profitability, they will successfully manage in transforming the company into a hybrid service company.
I believe that Apple’s services will contribute around 30% of total revenue by 2020 and this is a big deal that will buoy the stock.
Ultimately, these are happier times for Apple as their bet on services isn’t getting bogged down, eclipsing expectations, and will cement their status as a sure-fire $1 trillion market cap company.
Bravo!
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/platforms.png777822Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2019-05-02 01:06:132019-07-11 13:19:03Apple's Home Run
“I think the iPhone is the best consumer product ever. That's what I feel about it. And it's become so integrated and integral to our lives, you wouldn't think about leaving home without it.” – CEO of Apple Tim Cook
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/tim-cook.png331256Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2019-05-02 01:05:382019-07-11 13:19:10May 2, 2019 - Quote of the Day
When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline.Read more
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The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)
1) Apple Blows it Away, with a major earnings upside surprise. The services play is finally feeding into profits. Stock backs bumped up from $100 billion to $150 billion. Don’t touch (AAPL) up here with the stock up $10 in the aftermarket. Click here.
2) Fed Meets Today, to decide on interest rates, which will do absolutely nothing. The non-announcement will be out 2:00 PM EST. Click here.
3) Uber Hits the Road for its IPO, which valuations being cut daily, from a high of $120 billion to a recent low of $90 billion. Rival Lyft definitely peed on their parade with their ill-fated IPO plunging 33%. Click here.
4) ADP Comes in at a Hot 275,000, as the private hiring binge continues. It’s a great preview for the Friday Nonfarm Payroll Report. Click here.
5) Pending Home Sales Jump 3.8%, on a signed contract basis. No doubt the market is responding to the biggest drop on mortgage rates in a decade. At one point, the 30-year fixed rate loan fell as low as 4.03%. Avoid housing for now, it’s still in a recession. Click here.
Published today in the Mad HedgeGlobal Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:
(SUNDAY JUNE 30 MANILA, PHILIPINNES STRATEGY LUNCHEON),
(WHY GLOBALIZATION WORKS)
(ALPHABET’S BIG MISS)
(GOOGL), (TSLA), (TWTR)
https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png00Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2019-05-01 10:55:412019-05-01 10:55:41Mad Hedge Hot Tips for May 1, 2019
While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to a six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.Read more
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What comes up must come down, you didn’t expect Alphabet’s stock to explode on this earnings report, did you?
Alphabet shares have gone up in a straight line since the beginning of the year, and only a robust beat on the bottom and top line with raised guidance was going to push this stock to higher highs.
Chances of that were low.
I wouldn’t classify Q1 as an awful quarter, but Alphabet was in need of a reset and culling a few hogs from the litter is not always a bad thing.
Shares retraced more than 8% in trading which could be the beginning of a brief but much-needed mini earnings tech recession.
Tech shares have carried the load this year, every continent on the globe wishes they had a tech sector like America does.
Google still has its digital ad duopoly intact and results were driven by ongoing strength in mobile search along with important contributions from YouTube followed by Google Cloud.
Revenues of $36.3 billion, up 17% YOY did not capture the imaginations of investors and this was graded as a big miss by over $1 billion.
This signals a sharp deceleration from Q1 2018 when Alphabet posted revenue growth of 26% YOY.
Growth of over 20% cut down to the high teens is a big deal in the tech world for growth names, and this puts a cap on the price trajectory for the short-term.
Cost per click on Google properties was down 19% YOY which was extremely disappointing even though paid clicks on Google properties were up 39% YOY which somewhat softens the blow.
Most crucially, there is nothing structurally wrong with Alphabet and investors must galvanize themselves around this salient point.
Execution risk reared its ugly head with CFO of Alphabet Ruth Porat explaining “while YouTube clicks continue to grow at a substantial pace in the first quarter, the rate of YouTube click growth rate decelerated versus a strong Q1 last year, reflecting changes that we made in early 2018 which we believe are overall additive to the user and advertiser experience.”
Alphabet pulled a Twitter (TWTR), forgoing short-term profits to focus on maintaining the reputation of the platform and eradicating lingering problems with the algorithm.
The algorithm facelift will make the platform more attractive to digital advertisers going forward as their brand risk is mitigated by Alphabet optimizing their algorithms.
More specifically, this would mean identifying certain unpalatable content that needs to be flat-out removed, and certain ads that should not be bundled with certain content.
More advertisers will slash YouTube ad budgets if they aren’t satisfied with the overall product experience and cannot accumulate positive user feedback.
Getting into the weeds makes us aware that costs aren’t overly exorbitant this time around.
Total traffic acquisition costs (TAC) were $6.9 billion, 22% of total advertising revenues and up 9% YOY but down from 2% YOY from Q1 2018 reflecting a favorable revenue mix shift from network to sites as well as a decrease in the network TAC rate.
Alphabet’s TAC rate rose from the impact of the ongoing shift to mobile, which manifests with higher TAC, but was offset by the growth in TAC free sites revenue driven by YouTube.
The European Commission (EC) and its decision that certain contractual provisions in agreements that Google had with AdSense for Search partners infringed European competition law and the associated €1.5 billion fine with it didn’t help quarterly performance.
The fine, in no shape or form, is a threat to Google’s dominance in Europe.
The Google cloud services 9 of the world's 10 largest media companies, 7 of the 10 largest retailers and more than half of the 10 largest companies in manufacturing, financial services, communications, and software.
Some of the companies that will join the Google Cloud are American Cancer Society and McKesson in health care, media and entertainment companies like USA TODAY and Viacom, consumer packaged goods brands like Unilever, manufacturing and industrial companies like Samsung, logistics company UPS and public sector organizations like Australia Post.
The expansion of 2 new Cloud regions in Seoul and Salt Lake City which will open in 2020 will help build on the footprint of 19 Cloud regions and 58 data centers around the world.
Alphabet missed badly on the top line, but comps from last year because of the strength of YouTube would have been hard to eclipse.
Bask in the glory of the reset in price - now it's time to play Alphabet from the long side.
Moving forward, Alphabet has many levers to pull as CEO of Tesla Elon Musk’s rallying cry for the evolution of self-driving cars means that Waymo would reap the benefits first in automated vehicle technology.
Alphabet also has a few tools left in their toolkit such as monetizing Google Maps through selling digital ads on the Maps interface.
I expect a slow grind up for the rest of the year because Alphabet can brandish many weapons with little resistance in front of them, it’s up to them to execute.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/traffic-acquisition.png547972Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2019-05-01 01:06:262019-07-11 13:19:24Alphabet’s Big Miss
When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline.Read more
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