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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

A Gem to Scoop Up on the Cheap

Tech Letter

I know everyone's gotten into a tizzy because of tech stocks falling off the proverbial cliff.

It won’t always be like this.

Tech stocks won’t plunge this dramatically simply because their growth stories are mainly intact.

External events sometimes do this to our sector, and we must brace for the impact, but readers should look forward to a rosier future.

That is why readers must start to plan for which stocks to scoop up on the cheap after the selling subsides.

One ironclad name that readers must dip into is software company Adobe (ADBE).

This stock has been historically hard to find entry points and we are on the way to getting an optimal one.

Creativity has always played a central role in the human experience.

Over the last year, we have all witnessed the way creativity has sustained us.

We've shared photographs with loved ones on different continents, taught art classes to students at their kitchen tables, and launched entirely new businesses online.

Building on decades of leadership, Adobe continues to pave the way in core creative categories, including digital photography and design, while pushing the boundaries across a wide range of emerging categories such as AR and 3D.

Whether it's the latest binge-worthy streaming plus series, a social media video that sparks a movement, or a corporate video, creation and consumption of video is experiencing explosive growth while Adobe is core to these businesses.

In August, they announced an agreement to acquire Frame.io, a leading cloud-based video collaboration platform. Video editing is rarely a solo activity and it's traditionally been highly inefficient. Frame.io streamlines the video production process by enabling editors and key project stakeholders to seamlessly collaborate using cloud-first workflows.

In the digital economy, companies are relying on digital presence and commerce as the dominant channels to drive business growth.

According to the Adobe Digital Economy Index, U.S. consumers spent over $541 billion in e-commerce from January through August, 58% more than what we saw two years ago.

As a result, in Q3, Adobe achieved record revenue of $3.94 billion, which represents 22% year-over-year growth.

The company isn’t just performing in terms of raw revenue, but the 3-Year EPS Growth Rate has stayed in the mid-20% and snowballing in terms of dollars accumulated.

Just to validate what I just said, in 2017, annual earnings were $1.7 billion and fast forward to 2020 and earnings surged to $5.26 billion.

Adobe’s consistency is also the talk of the town with their 3-year revenue growth rate in the mid-20%.

Adobe is really at the sweet spot of their earnings profile, and I can easily see this company growing from a $270 billion market cap today into half a trillion-dollar stock within 4 years with earnings of $8 billion per year.

Naturally, the bread and butter to Adobe is the small and medium-sized businesses (SMB).

The SMB’s scoop-up products like imaging and video continue to do well — the Acrobat business, which is reflected both in the Creative Cloud and the Document Cloud, is doing well.

Net-net, I would say that the growth prospects for these particular businesses are running smoothly as can be and this is how positive the feedback is from these creative products.

At the end of the day, I think the macro trend that everybody is finding is that a digital presence in commerce, data and insights, and analytics is an x-factor now for anybody doing business.

The behavioral data that Adobe collects in real-time for the productivity division correlates with the marketing message associated with telling creators that they really need to focus on getting their first-party data to be an asset.

Then you add that to the creative products and wow — what a stellar company.

These are seminal trends Adobe is flying on the coattails of, and the robustness of Adobe’s tools significantly differentiates itself relative to competition.

I am bullish Adobe in the long term.

 

adobe

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/adobe.png 498 972 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-10-06 15:02:552021-10-08 20:26:05A Gem to Scoop Up on the Cheap
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Quote of the Day - October 6, 2021

Tech Letter

“Microsoft isn't evil, they just make really crappy operating systems.” – Said Finnish-American software engineer Linus Benedict Torvalds who is the creator of Linux, Android, and Chrome OS

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Linus-Benedict-Torvalds.png 462 390 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-10-06 15:00:172021-10-06 15:20:12Quote of the Day - October 6, 2021
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

October 6, 2021

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
October 6, 2021
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(HOW “HIGH” CAN MARIJUANA STOCKS GO?)
(TLRY), (CGC), (TOKE)
(TESTIMONIAL)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-10-06 12:06:432021-10-06 12:33:44October 6, 2021
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

October 5, 2021

Biotech Letter

 

Mad Hedge Biotech & Healthcare Letter
October 5, 2021
Fiat Lux

FEATURED TRADE:

(A BIOTECH STOCK THAT LETS YOU SLEEP THROUGH THE NIGHT)
(AMGN), (AZN), (GSK), (REGN), (SNY), (MRK)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-10-05 15:02:472021-10-05 16:16:18October 5, 2021
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

A Biotech Stock that Lets You Sleep Through the Night

Biotech Letter

Great investors have learned that the critical element when it comes to long-term investing is concentrating on stocks that hold a profound presence in their fields and that will continue to grow in the decades to come.

In terms of trends, the best thing to do is to determine something that will affect the world by generating millions—if not billions—of steady customers.

Among the stocks in the biotech industry today, one stands out to benefit from solid future demand for its products: Amgen (AMGN).

Amgen is one of the biggest biopharmaceutical companies across the globe, holding an equity market capitalization of roughly $127 billion. Despite its size, it simply can’t quite catch a break, with its share price continuing to slide in the past week.

While short-term investors may see this as a weakness, it’s moments like these that distinguish genuine value investors from the rest.

Let’s take a look at a company that has been thrown in the bargain bin for no apparent reason, and understand why this could be our opportunity.

A recent promising addition to Amgen’s pipeline is its experimental asthma drug, Tezepelumab, which it’s co-developing with AstraZeneca (AZN).

There are approximately 2.5 million patients worldwide who suffer from severe, uncontrolled asthma, accounting for almost 50% of all asthma-related expenses in the healthcare system.

This is because the majority of the 439,000 asthma-related hospitalizations, as well as 1.3 million emergency room visits annually in the US alone, are caused by severe, uncontrolled asthma.

Moreover, it was found that 1 in 5 severe asthma patients tend to develop a benign growth called nasal polyps in the sinuses of their noses. These can end up blocking their nasal passages, worsening their breathing problems, and diminishing their sense of smell.

This is the very market that Amgen’s Tezepelumab targets to help.

Tezepelumab is the first and only treatment that focuses on the symptoms of severe, uncontrolled asthma patients.

Considering the positive results of its late-stage trials, Amgen and AstraZeneca are confident that Tezepelumab will receive regulatory approval from the US FDA by the first quarter of 2022.

When that happens, this will mark Amgen’s first-ever foray into the asthma treatment sector—and it’s entering the market with a potential blockbuster to boot.

The global asthma market is projected to grow from $20.6 billion in 2020 to $37.3 billion in revenue by 2030.

So far, the other names aiming to dominate this segment include GlaxoSmithKline (GSK), Regeneron (REGN), and Sanofi (SNY).

Considering the competition, a modest estimate is to expect Tezepelumab to seize at least 5% of the market share following its approval.

That would work out to roughly $1.9 billion in yearly revenue, divided between AstraZeneca and Amgen.

Taking into account that Amgen is forecasting its 2021 revenue to be within the range of $25.8 billion and $26.6 billion, the addition of $1 billion annually would surely move the needle.

Moreover, the cherry on top is that Tezepelumab is a clear indicator of the company’s efforts to diversify its revenue base and enter a market that it has yet to establish its presence.

Apart from Tezepelumab, Amgen has also been working on expanding its blockbuster lung cancer drug Lumakras, which generated $2.5 billion in annual sales.

To date, Lumakras is expected to emerge as a solid contender to unseat Merck’s (MRK) Keytruda in the lung cancer segment.

In addition, the company is studying how to utilize Lumakras as a potential treatment for colorectal cancer.

Amgen has also been expanding its pipeline of biosimilar candidates.

The most exciting candidates include its biologic version of Johnson & Johnson’s (JNJ) psoriatic arthritis and psoriasis medication Stelara, Regeneron’s chronic eye disease drug Eylea, and AstraZeneca’s rare disease treatment Soliris.

Even AbbVie’s (ABBV) impending loss of exclusivity for its top-selling rheumatoid arthritis drug Humira is under the company’s radar, with Amgen already prepared to launch its own biosimilar domestically in the form of Amjevita by 2023.

Getting the regulatory green light for these treatments would allow Amgen to poach on hundreds of millions, if not billions, in annual revenue from its competitors.

Apart from its pipeline candidates and strong performance in niche segments, Amgen has demonstrated a solid track record when it comes to capital returns via share buybacks.

In the second quarter of 2021 alone, the company has splurged on 6.5 million in shares repurchases. Amgen expects to reach a total of $3 billion to $5 billion in total repurchases throughout the year.

This strategy has pushed Amgen in its goal to continuously deliver market-beating returns in the past decade, as shown by its 451% total—overtaking the 384% return of the S&P 500.

Buying shares of a company when it’s declining can be an excellent step to set yourself up for future gains when the stock bounces back.

However, not all struggling stocks can recover.

So, it’s crucial to determine the reason for their fall. If the business itself is stable and solid, a decline in value might just be the opportunity you need to invest.

The truth is, nothing has actually changed when it comes to Amgen’s long-term stock growth prospects. It's still the company with a slew of top-selling products and more pipeline candidates expected to become blockbusters in the coming years.

All told, Amgen holds roughly 20 revenue-generating products in its diverse portfolio, and not a single drug accounts for over 20% of the company’s continuously rising top line.

Overall, I think Amgen is an A-rated company with a reasonable yield and a promising upside.

amgen stock

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-10-05 15:00:322021-10-08 20:21:21A Biotech Stock that Lets You Sleep Through the Night
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

October 5, 2021

Bitcoin Letter

Mad Hedge Bitcoin Letter
October 5, 2021
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(ARE ALTCOINS RELEVANT?)
(BTC), (ETH)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-10-05 12:04:232021-10-05 15:49:09October 5, 2021
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Are Altcoins Relevant?

Bitcoin Letter

As some of you may have figured out — there are other cryptocurrencies out there besides Bitcoin (BTC).

In fact, there are thousands of different cryptocurrencies out there.

Generated, in part, by the transformational narrative of BTC, many have tried to replicate the success of Bitcoin in terms of percentage gain of the underlying asset.

These other peer-to-peer digital currencies have emerged over the last couple of years and are all chasing BTC.

First, let me get it out of the way by saying that BTC has extraordinarily benefited from its first-mover advantage and the subsequent snowballing network effect.

Altcoins, not even one, have experienced these super boosters.

These digital currencies, better known as altcoins (alternative coins), are mainly designed to overcome the structural and technical limitations of BTC while supporting a diverse set of real-world use cases.

Why should investors keep tabs on altcoins?

Per the date of this writing, BTC has a market cap of around a trillion dollars, and altcoins also represent another trillion.

Commanding half of the market cap in cryptocurrencies is enough to warrant attention.

Since altcoins are such a big part of the market, every crypto investor should understand how they work.

In fact, the way you might profit off of crypto is not in BTC itself, but the diverse set of other assets in the space.

It’s true many missed the BTC boat — make sure you don’t miss the next boat.

Owing to the growth of the decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystem, the increased use of smart contracts, and the introduction of environmentally-friendly consensus mechanisms, altcoins have expanded their market capitalization manifold, especially between 2020 and 2021.

Altcoin’s popularity signals the growing breadth of high quality crypto assets invading the industry.

Many blockchain companies and projects issue their own cryptocurrency tokens, making them the primary utility token for users to interact with their network.

Since there are hundreds of projects and DeFi opportunities available, such as staking and yield farming, together with an open market to choose from, it can be a bit challenging to determine the most promising projects.

One major variable that must be baked into the pie is that altcoins tend to offer a higher risk and higher reward as a cryptocurrency investment.

Although Bitcoin is volatile, it's the market leader and has already gained substantial value and name recognition — so investors looking for extra juice will gravitate to lower-priced, nascent coins with more upside.

Altcoins have more room to grow, but they also represent higher systemic risk therefore I can’t advise readers to pour their entire net worth into altcoins just yet.

A wonky altcoin could literally go poof in one second and there’s no way to get your fiat back with it.

Readers looking for altcoin success should only allocate a small portion of their portfolio into this space, and I would recommend a trusted broker like Robinhood or Coinbase as reputable crypto brokerages.

Altcoins are more advanced. Since they came out after Bitcoin, they've improved on its technology. In terms of transaction speeds and costs, many altcoins are far superior technically to Bitcoin.

Should you consider investing in altcoins?

The proverbial low-hanging fruit has been harvested in BTC.

Another serious challenge of altcoins is how to pick the right one in a crowded setup which is where we come in.

We will be navigating through altcoins and giving readers the best chance to succeed.

Like real estate, many of these altcoins are getting priced to the relative price proposition it holds when compared to a $50,000 BTC, which is essentially seen as the best house in the best neighborhood thus priced the highest.

The altcoin that will perform best in the short run will be the worst house in the best neighborhood and the most potential for returns will come from the best house in a rapidly gentrifying neighborhood.

Altcoins and their underlying prices are behaving in a similar fashion to real estate prices, which is why Ethereum and some others are looking super cheap and primed to gain on BTC.

In short, the “rising tide lifting all boats” truly applies to the digital gold as well, and I am supremely confident that BTC will hold this $40,000 support level through the end of 2021 giving the existence of crypto a massive victory to us crypto junkies.

 

altcoin

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-10-05 12:02:192021-10-08 20:05:24Are Altcoins Relevant?
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Quote of the Day - October 5, 2021

Bitcoin Letter

“Bitcoin is a swarm of cyber hornets serving the goddess of wisdom, feeding on the fire of truth, exponentially growing ever smarter, faster, and stronger behind a wall of encrypted energy.” – Said CEO of MicroStrategy Michael Saylor

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/michael-saylor.png 532 392 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-10-05 12:00:362021-10-05 15:49:32Quote of the Day - October 5, 2021
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

October 5, 2021

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
October 5, 2021
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(HOW TO EXECUTE A VERTICAL BULL CALL SPREAD)
(AAPL)
(THANK GOODNESS, I DON’T LIVE IN SWEDEN)
(EWD)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-10-05 10:06:562021-10-05 10:23:50October 5, 2021
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Thank Goodness I Don't Live in Sweden!

Diary, Free Research, Newsletter

I recently found the chart below showing world tax rates as a percentage of GDP for the past 40 years. Sweden suffers the world's heaviest tax burden at 51%, compared to only 27% in the US.

The US has among the world's lowest tax burdens in terms of actual taxes paid which has been falling for the last 15 years.

Listening to TV pundits, you would think we had the world's highest tax rates. They are dead wrong.

Germany, home to some of the world's best-run and most profitable companies which make the Fatherland a major exporter, has one of the lowest tax bills.

Iceland sits at the bottom and recently went bankrupt, thanks to an overdose of free-market deregulatory philosophy.

Americans historically have had a very strong resistance to taxation which you can trace back to the libertarian foundations of the country.

The Revolutionary War in which 17 of my known ancestors fought was primarily about taxes.

The top end of the distribution is packed with European nations but you never hear them complain about high tax rates.

Most believe the cost of the social safety net is worth it. Those that don't move to the US, Monte Carlo, Lichtenstein, or the British Virgin Islands.

Of course, having once been a part-owner in a fashion model agency in Stockholm, I can certainly vouch for the advantages of living in the world's most taxed domicile. Hedge fund profits go a long way there.

Suffice to say, you spend a lot of time indoors in the home of the Vikings, especially in the winter.

Things could be worse.

 

 

Well, Maybe It's Not So Bad After All

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/pretty-lady.png 354 422 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-10-05 10:02:502021-10-05 10:26:45Thank Goodness I Don't Live in Sweden!
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Legal Disclaimer

There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.

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