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Tag Archive for: (PANW)

Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Why the FANGs are Breaking Into Your Home

Tech Letter

The house is the new smartphone and I will tell you why.

The projected market growth of 18% in smart home technology sales according to Acumen Researching and Consulting will deliver opportunities to shape and prioritize this sector.  

The revenues up for grabs from the smart home mean that internet of things’ (IoT) companies will create systems that mesh together with the bare minimum human participation, meaning that tech will have a dramatic influence in our daily lives.

I get several moans and groans a day that the Mad Hedge Technology Letter only shines the spotlight on the FANGs.

But it is hard not to when it comes to the future of the home.

Just look at recent M&A activity.

Automation and connected smart appliances have consumed Amazon by recently acquiring Eero, producer of routers for apartments, houses, and multi-story homes, and after already paying $1 billion to acquire Ring, a doorbell-camera startup. It had also bought Blink, a smart camera maker in 2017.

Google hasn’t shied away either by investing in smart home products pocketing Nest, a firm producing smart home products, for $3.2 billion.

Nest took a few years to sort out its production phase but finally managed to launch new temperature sensors, a video doorbell, and an outdoor smart camera.

What are the trending IoT products now?

The flavors of the day are smart lights, security, entertainment systems, and temperature control.

They are the low hanging fruit of the smart home industry – a de facto gateway into this world.

Most of these smart devices operate with voice assistants, but because of the nature of competition, certain products are aligned with certain ecosystems and compatibility issues will persist until the competition flushes itself out.

A layman’s example would be Apple’s Homekit dovetailing nicely with Apple’s Siri.

Companies are in the first innings of the product iteration cycle and the variations of smart home products are endless stemming from showers that remember preferred water temperature and flow rates or climate-control systems that change in real-time to suit the user.

Security of home networks and connected devices are still a controversial question mark because the receiver of this type of data has the keys to the most intimate details of personal lives.

Even avid technologists are hesitant to dive in and put up smart home products all over the house, and most are being cautious.

In fact, privacy issues are the most distinct headwind to fresh adoption rates.

Many people simply aren’t willing to make the jump yet until they are more convinced of its use case.

Even with all the reservations, an alternative global shipment company believes smart home devices will post 24% in growth next year.

For the smart home device believers, this cohort averages 6 smart home devices per household and will certainly rise to 7 or 8 by the end of 2020. 

Popular items include the Amazon Echo, Google Home, and Apple (AAPL) HomePod.

Smart speakers are already present in 36% of American homes and rising.

Consumers are also worried about technology invading their daily lives along with allowing artificial intelligence to dominate personal decision making.

Others have concluded that items such as smart microwaves are a waste of money and are unneeded when analog devices function admirably.

Another legitimate reason is that the software and technology involve a perceived steep learning curve to operate which many people do not have the patience for.

And some are just burnt out by the volume of technology thrown in our faces.

Who wants to operate 50 apps on their phone to control their smart home devices when there are other pressing needs in life?

Companies with skin in the game are Alarm.com (ALRM), ADT (ADT), Arlo Technologies (ARLO) and Resideo Technologies (REZI) and they will be outsized winners if they can solve many of the industries lingering issues.

The value thesis in the case of home automation companies is that they are financially efficient, time-effective, boost wellness and will be easy to use.

About 11% of U.S. broadband households have smart thermostats and Nest’s smart thermostat is the most popular.

Networked security cameras by Arlo are in 10% of homes.

Video doorbells from Amazon.com (AMZN), Google are in 8% of homes and help deter theft of e-commerce packages.

Smart light bulbs and lighting are at 8% market share while smart door locks are at 7% penetration.

There are several second derivates bet on this as well.

The most common user interface for the smart home is apps on a smartphone or tablet and voice commands to smart speakers are second.

The conundrum of installation complexities leads to the demand of professional installers.

This demand has delivered opportunities for companies like Comcast's (CMCSA) Xfinity and Vivint.

Electronics retailer Best Buy (BBY) has stepped up its footprint in this market as well.

Another stock play would be cybersecurity companies because they will win contracts protecting the software that smart home products rely on.

Hackers are getting more sophisticated and a private cybersecurity company Firewalla can track where data is flowing to and from your devices.

Firewalla management recommends buying devices from reputable home automation companies like Amazon and Google because they have more accountability and are of higher quality.

There will be a huge onramp of cybersecurity contracts doled out to the likes of Palo Alto Networks, Inc. (PANW), CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. (CRWD), Fortinet, Inc. (FTNT), and Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO).

We are in the first mile of a marathon and smart home product manufacturers, cybersecurity companies, 5G internet, and semiconductor companies will all benefit from the broad-based integration of these next-generation home consumer products.

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/smart-home.png 512 722 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-12-13 06:02:172020-05-11 13:04:53Why the FANGs are Breaking Into Your Home
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

November 19, 2019

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
November 19, 2019
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(BLACK FRIDAY DISCOUNT OFFER FOR THE MAD HEDGE TECHNOLOGY LETTER),
(ADBE), (EBAY), (PANW)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-11-19 05:06:552019-11-19 15:08:03November 19, 2019
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Black Friday Discount Offer for the Mad Hedge Technology Letter

Diary, Newsletter

The Mad Hedge Technology Letter has been on an absolute tear lately.

It has posted an eye-popping 25.25% net profit since August. The last 14 consecutive trade alerts have been profitable, a success rate of 100%. Some 20 out of the last 22 trade alerts have been profitable, a success rate of 90.9%.

We nailed the 27.3% move in the multimedia software company, Adobe (ADBE). We killed the 23.28% pop in e-commerce leader eBay (EBAY). And we hit a total home run with a positively ballistic 30.42% gain in cybersecurity giant Palo Alto Networks (PANW).

And here’s the method to our madness. While no one was looking, the stock market has made a dramatic shift from buying in large-cap tech techs to smaller cap ones. In order words, we’ve moved from the FANGs to the mini FANG’s, and WE CAUGHT ALL OF IT!

Which brings me to the topic at hand. You absolutely HAVE to get in on this move, the most important of the year. And I’m going to make it incredibly easy for you to do so. For here at Mad Hedge Fund Trader, Black Friday comes early.

I am offering the Mad Hedge Technology Letter at an insanely bargain-basement price of $998. That is a full 61% discount to the $2,500 list price offered on our website.

I’m not doing this to make money. I am chopping prices so YOU can make money. And there is nothing I like better than happy, money-making customers. For focusing in on this one crucial sector will be the most important investment decision you make in your lifetime.

With the Mad Hedge Technology Letter, you will get:

*A three times weekly morning newsletter covering the most important technology stocks and trends of our time.

*Technology trade alerts sent out at market sweet spots telling when and where best to enter the market.

*Trade alerts sent out at market tops on where best to take profits or stop out of the rare losers.

*Invitations to biweekly Strategy Webinars with live Q&A.

*The best customer support in the industry with same day answers to all questions.

*Access to a searchable ten-year database of technology research.

*Invitations to Mad Hedge Strategy Luncheons around the world (the last one was in Zermatt, Switzerland).

In order to take advantage of this one time only offer, please click here.

Let me give you a warning. We are only accepting 25 orders at this deep discounted one-time offer so it’s a first-come, first-served basis.

I look forward to working with you.

John Thomas
CEO & Publisher
The Mad Hedge Technology Letter

 

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/3month-return.png 564 899 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-11-19 05:04:502019-11-19 15:08:37Black Friday Discount Offer for the Mad Hedge Technology Letter
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

October 9, 2019

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
October 9, 2019
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(WHAT’S BEHIND THE CHINESE TECH BLACKLIST)
(FTNT), (PANW), (CRWD), (CYBR)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-10-09 09:04:072019-10-09 09:44:01October 9, 2019
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

What's Behind the Chinese Tech Blacklist

Tech Letter

The administration banning 8 Chinese tech companies screams one thing – American cybersecurity will become more important than ever before.

Interestingly enough, most of the entry list included Chinese own version of cybersecurity companies which usually participate in heavy-handed censorship including facial recognition startups Sensetime, Megvii and Yitu, video surveillance specialists Hikvision and Dahua Technology, iFlyTek, Xiamen Meiya Pico Information Co and Yixin Science and Technology Co.

All of these companies have “borrowed” American source code while applying American designed semiconductors to create a business aiding the interests and model of the Chinese Communist Party.

As the stakes become higher, American companies too will have to grow cybersecurity budgets, and instead of budgeting for mass authoritarian censorship, American companies will need to spend to protect the technology and networks they develop from getting pillaged from totalitarian regimes.

If American tech companies renege on the Faustian bargain of doing business in China for their technology, then it will force the Chinese to acquire this sensitive technology by any means possible and that doesn’t involve sitting on the emperor’s chair in Beijing.

What does this mean for the broader trade war?

Even if we get a mini deal, it won’t address that the main guts of the trade conflict entails killing off Chinese tech in the way we know it now.

Being able to agree on some sort of enforceable mechanism is a pipe dream, even if an enforceable mechanism is agreed on, who will enforce the enforceable mechanism?

That’s how tricky it is for corporates doing business in China and now the NBA (National Basketball Association) has received a small sampling of the trade war with one innocuous quote by Houston Rockets General Manager Daryl Morey who tweeted then deleted his democratic support for the Hong Kong freedom movement.

The ban of these 8 Chinese companies means they will no longer be able to purchase U.S.-made technology parts to use as inputs of a censorship business model that goes against democratic values.

The trigger for the blacklist was the way these technologies were used to imprison ethnic Muslim minorities in Chinese Xinjiang province paving the way for China to lash out again against the U.S for the ban.

Not only has China applied the technology to Chinese nationals, they have exported this technology to African states and are allowed access to the data which could theoretically be exploited for additional economic and political gain about which they essentially have no qualms.

Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Geng Shuang has characterized this move as “interfering in China’s internal affairs” and as you probably believe, he expressed great unsatisfaction with this move as Chinese and American delegations plan to meet shortly to hash out their differences.

The 8 banned companies will need to source alternative tech in the same way that Huawei Technologies has done.

Huawei was banned this past April under national security premises blocking access to US-made software for its handsets and devices, such as Google’s Android operating system and Microsoft’s Windows.

This will hurt certain semiconductor manufacturers like Nvidia who sell artificial intelligence chips for video surveillance to Hikvision and semiconductor stocks have sold off hard on this news.

Washington’s move has laid bare the fierce struggle for technology supremacy and America’s refusal to allow Chinese technology companies to reign supreme off of ill-gotten intellectual property and American semiconductor chips.

It could be the final straw in corporate America funding China to take down itself or at least another step to disengaging with the Sino cash cow.

And this new episode is almost guaranteed to usher in a flight of capital to American cybersecurity companies as Chinese hackers open up a new frontier to hack the best of America’s intellectual property.

I envision the likes of Palo Alto Networks, Inc. (PANW), Fortinet, Inc. (FTNT), CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. (CRWD), and CyberArk Software Ltd. (CYBR) as good long term buy and holds that offer quality exposure to the cybersecurity story and the future growth of it.

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-10-09 09:02:002020-05-11 13:26:10What's Behind the Chinese Tech Blacklist
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

June 13, 2019

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
June 13, 2019
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(TUESDAY, JUNE 25 SYDNEY, AUSTRALIA STRATEGY LUNCHEON)
(CYBERSECURITY IS ONLY JUST GETTING STARTED),
(PANW), (HACK), (FEYE), (CSCO), (FTNT), (JNPR), (CIBR)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-06-13 04:06:142019-06-13 04:38:16June 13, 2019
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

June 6, 2019

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
June 6, 2019
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(WEDNESDAY, JUNE 28 PERTH, AUSTRALIA STRATEGY LUNCHEON)
(THE IRS LETTER YOU SHOULD DREAD),
(PANW), (CSCO), (FEYE),
 (CYBR), (CHKP), (HACK), (SNE)

(CHINA’S COMING DEMOGRAPHIC NIGHTMARE)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-06-06 01:08:252019-06-05 17:27:02June 6, 2019
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

April 10, 2019

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
April 10, 2019
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(TAKE A 2020 RAIN CHECK WITH SYMANTEC)
(SYMC), (FTNT), (PANW),

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-04-10 10:32:142019-04-10 10:32:22April 10, 2019
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Take a 2020 Rain Check with Symantec

Tech Letter

If you said I am going to the well too many times with this enterprise software theme, I would say you are out of your mind.

Next up is Symantec Corp. (SYMC) who offers global cybersecurity products, services, and solutions, and will be a primary beneficiary of the acceleration of network security products that expanded 12.6% YOY in 2018 and a secondary beneficiary to the migration to enterprise software.

The uptick in gorging cybersecurity products helps reflect the strongest industry metrics since analytics started tracking cybersecurity figures.

As more corporations take the leap of faith and splurge on data centers to house digital secrets, cloud service providers will store corporate data on these massive server farms and perimeter protection software is needed to guard against trojan horses and other malware.

This development has led to a vibrantly healthy market for firewall products, a traditional cybersecurity tool applied to block access to portions of a corporate network from the outside internet.

Firewall products weren’t shy registering 16.3% YOY growth to $2.4 billion in Q4 2018.

Advanced threat protection products used to find more sophisticated and modern offshoots of malicious software exploded to $416 million in Q4 2018, up 19.1% YOY.

Where does it stop?

Nobody knows, but the internet is becoming more of a chaotic free-for-all, and corporations existing for the sheer purpose of maximizing shareholder value will need to dole out an extra layer or two of digital protection.

Remember executive careers can be ruined from corporate cyberespionage these days and being the guy who lets the North Korean cyber army through the front door to fleece proprietary data isn’t a great pitch for a future executive gig.

The thorny Huawei issue has also heightened awareness of this sensitivity of security issues demonstrating how American tech prowess can be looted in a zero-sum cross-border game.

Internet users have also experienced a sudden balkanization of the web by totalitarian governments ready to weaponize the internet where they see fit while clamping down on freedom of expression on expressions that aren’t favorable to the interests above.

The orange alert climate has forced corporations to rush into cybersecurity products and my two favorite companies in this sphere are Palo Alto Networks, Inc. (PANW) and Fortinet, Inc. (FTNT).

I cannot say that Symantec is a better company than these two, it wouldn’t be true because their model doesn’t have the super growth trajectory when you analyze them head to head.

But this year should be an improvement on last year and I see room to the upside.

Every important metric will improve, aided by a return to better-calibrated execution, stabilization in business mix, and the benefit of revenue already on the balance sheet.

Operating margins slightly beat guidance with a 32% upswing last quarter and strong cash flow from operations of $377 million in the third quarter meant the company is more profitable.

Enterprise Security chipped in with revenue of $616 million, $31 million above the high end of the guidance range, and after a turbulent first half of 2018, Enterprise Security is back to organic growth of 3%.

And the main reason this company won’t be a massive winner is because of the lack of top-line growth indicating expansion in fiscal 2019 of only 1.5% in total revenue comprising of relatively flat revenue for Enterprise Security and 3% growth for the Consumer Digital Safety division.

Not good enough in the tech world of today.

Remember that the Consumer Digital Safety division contributes 49% to the top line while Enterprise Security only makes up 15%.

I believe this amounts to serious weakness in their business model because it should be the other way around to take advantage of the fast-growing enterprise business market and the even better margins.

The sluggish growth has hit shares with the chart flat as a pancake if you string it out the past 5 years with undulation in between.

The top line growth from 2017 to 2018, went from $4.02B to $4.83B and was a revelation, yet management has begged for more time with its prognosis of flat revenue for 2019.

Symantec will compensate for the lack of revenue growth with slightly better profitability maintaining a 30% operating margin, and predicting cash flow from operations for fiscal year 2019 to be in the range of $1.25B to $1.35B, a nice bump from the total cash flows from operations of $950 million in fiscal year 2018.

The catalyst to share appreciation is hidden in between the lines with management hyping up 2020 as the period when Symantec gets its mojo back with mid-single digit growth, with the Enterprise Security segment particularly benefiting from organic revenue expanding in the mid to high single digits from 2019.

A roll-off from existing contract liabilities will boost the Consumer Digital Safety segment but will not demonstrate any meaningful organic revenue growth projected to be unchanged at the low to mid-single digits YOY.

This sets up nicely for 2020 – the company expects a boost in operating margins to mid-30s and expected EPS growth in the low double digits with cash flow from operations benefitting from the 2019 restructuring, transition and transformation effort.

In short, they had a poor 2018 and Symantec’s management is telling investors to allocate downtime to fix the firm - growth will be missing this year, but they will be more profitable than last year, albeit with flat revenue.

The jury will be out in 2020 which is when they promised to have all their ducks in a row.

Even though they aren’t promising double-digit revenue growth in 2020, the high single-digit growth could see shares slowly grind up for the rest of this year.

This is another example of how legacy companies get stuck digging themselves out of a sinkhole before they can hyper-energize their profit model.

They are still in a holding pattern and I am neutral to slightly bullish on Symantec shares.

 

 

 

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-04-10 10:31:172019-04-10 10:32:12Take a 2020 Rain Check with Symantec
MHFTR

July 24, 2018

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
July 24, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(SECURE THE GATES),
(FTNT), (PANW)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2018-07-24 01:06:442018-07-24 01:06:44July 24, 2018
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