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Tag Archive for: (WMT)

Mad Hedge Fund Trader

November 30, 2020

Tech Letter



Mad Hedge Technology Letter
November 30, 2020
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(THE GREEN LIGHT FOR E-COMMERCE)
(AMZN), (W), (OSTK), (WMT), (TGT), (MELI), (EBAY), (CRM), (ADBE)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-11-30 10:04:582020-11-30 11:15:44November 30, 2020
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

The Green Light for E-commerce

Tech Letter

Data from Adobe Analytics is in and it suggests that e-commerce is delivering on its expected domination over retail.

I can’t ignore the helping hand of the pandemic which has deemed pedestrian shopping malls too dangerous to set foot in and for analog businesses that survive, it is essentially coming down to whether a digital footprint has been developed or not.

There is only so much a PPP loan can do to paper over the cracks of a non-digital business.

At some point, CEOs will need to wake up and understand that survival means a migration to digital.

Forecasts show that Black Friday online sales will register between $8.9 billion and $10.6 billion, which represents growth of up to 42% year over year.

The data firm expects Black Friday and Cyber Monday to become the two largest online sales days in history as consumers shift more spending toward e-commerce amid the public health crisis.  

By last Friday morning, Salesforce projected online sales in the U.S. for Black Friday to spike 15% to $11.9 billion.

The truth is that many shoppers got their shopping done even before Thursday and Friday with digital sales in the U.S. spiking 72% year over year on Tuesday and were up 48% on Wednesday.

E-commerce companies front-ran the actual holidays to eke out more profit in the anticipation of competitors offering earlier sales.

According to Adobe, Thanksgiving sales hit a record $5.1 billion, up 21.5% over 2019 and this aggressive growth rate can be considered the new normal.

Smartphones continued to account for an increasing segment of online sales, with this year’s $3.6 billion up 25.3%, while alternative deliveries — a sign of the e-commerce space maturing — also continued to grow, with in-store and curbside pickup up 52% on 2019.

Shopify said that over 70% of its sales are being made using smartphones.

What are the hot gift items?

Electronics, tech, toys, and sports goods being the most popular categories — at the right price will help retailers continue to experience elevated sales volume.

Adobe said a survey of consumers found that 41% said they would start shopping earlier this year than previous years due to much earlier discounts.

This season is headed for record-breaking levels as consumers power online sales for both holiday gifts and necessities.

Not all big-box retailers were open over the holidays and getting that extra surge from the likes of daily needs such as paper towels, cleaning products, and garbage bags has boosted the top-line growth as well.

We have seen the perfect storm of elements fuse together to help the bottom line records of the likes we have never observed.

Comps will be difficult to beat next year if the vaccine solution starts coming online by next winter and considering that the worst economic damage is behind us.

Next year, the U.S. consumer will have more to spend setting up a tough but possible beat to next year’s numbers along with the high likelihood that tech stocks will experience another leg up.

There will be a lot happening in between, such as a new U.S. administration that is primed for a different economic polic; but it’s impossible not to love the narrative of certain e-commerce companies such as Shopify (SHOP), MercadoLibre (MELI), Target (TGT), Walmart (WMT), Etsy (ETSY), Wayfair (W), eBay (EBAY), Overstock.com (OSTK), Amazon (AMZN) and the companies that measure their data like Salesforce (CRM) and Adobe (ADBE).

If we ever could anoint when a year became the year of technology, then this would be it in 2020.

The base case for next year is that the borders and states will still grapple with the virus and the knock-on effects to society, economy, and politics as the capacity to produce the virus won’t meet demand for at least a year.

Tech stocks are primed to outperform non-tech next year and even though multiples are high, the momentum suggests that this group of stocks will be the gift that keeps giving as the Fed has offered generous liquidity conditions to tech investors.

 

 

e-commerce

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-11-30 10:02:262020-12-04 15:30:24The Green Light for E-commerce
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

October 23, 2020

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
October 23, 2020
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(11 SURPRISES THAT WOULD DESTROY THIS MARKET),
(SPY), (USO), (AMZN), (MCD), (WMT), (TGT)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-10-23 09:04:332020-10-23 09:35:54October 23, 2020
MHFTF

11 Surprises that Would Destroy This Market

Diary, Newsletter, Research

Note to readers: Sorry for the short letter today but PG&E is about to turn off my electric power to reduce the risk of a wildfire during these high, hot winds from the east so I’m sending you just a few quick thoughts.

The Teflon market is back.

Bad news is good news. Good news is good news.

What could be better than that?

However, there are a few issues out there lurking on the horizon that could pee on everyone’s parade.

Risks of an asymmetric outcome right now are huge. Let me call out the roster for you.

1) The China Trade War Escalates – Every day economic advisor Larry Kudlow tells us that the trade talks are progressing nicely, and every day the administration pulls the rug out from under him with new sanctions. The last chance to avoid the next recession is upon us. A trade deal is the rational thing to do. Oops! There's that “rational” word again.

2) Economic Data Gets Worse - After a great data run into the fall, they are suddenly rolling over. All of the forward-looking data is now 100% terrible.

3) The Fed Raises Interest Rates- This has been the world’s greatest guessing game for the past three years. Jay Powell has just promised NOT to raise interest rates for three years, so an increase would be completely out of the blue and have an outsize impact. The Fed lives in perpetual fear of the American economy going into the next recession with interest rates near zero! That would leave them powerless to do anything to engineer a revival.

3) Another Geopolitical Crisis - You could always get a surprise on the international front. But the lesson of this bull market is that traders and investors could care less about North Korea, ISIS, Al Qaida, Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Russia, the Ukraine, or the Chinese expansion in the South China Sea.

Every one of these black swans has been a buying opportunity of the first order, and they will continue to be so. At the end of the day, terrorists don’t impact American corporate earnings, nor do they own stocks.

4) A Recovery in Oil – The next drone attack against Saudi Arabia could send oil really flying. If it recovers too fast and rockets back to the $100 level, it could start to eat into stock prices, especially big energy-consuming ones, like transportation and industrials.

5) The End of US QE - The Fed’s $4.5 billion quantitative easing, relaunched in March, could end as soon as it gets the sense that the economy is recovering too fast. That would take the punch bowl away from the party. Anyone who said QE didn’t work obviously doesn’t own stocks.

6) A New War – If the US gets dragged into a major new ground war, in Iran, North Korea, Syria, Iraq, or elsewhere, you can kiss this bull market goodbye. Budget deficits would explode, the dollar would collapse, and there would be a massive exodus out of all risk assets, especially stocks.

7) US Corporate Earnings Collapse – They already have for the sectors of the economy where you can’t socially distance, like movie theaters, restaurants, and airlines. A much higher third wave of Covid-19 would do the trick nicely, bringing a new round of lockdowns. Do you think stocks (SPY) will notice?

8) Another Emerging Market (EEM) Crash - If the greenback resumes its long-term rise, another emerging market debt crisis is in the cards. Venezuela and Argentina are just the opening scenes.

When their local currencies collapse, it has the effect of doubling the principal balance of their loans and doubling the monthly payments, immediately.

This is the problem that is currently taking apart the Brazilian economy right now. It happened in 1998, and it looks like we are seeing a replay.

9) A Trump Victory – Since the stock market has spent the last six months discounting a Biden win, the opposite result would be a total out of the blue shock. Count on a 10% dive in the (SPY) immediately, and 20% eventually. Polls can be wrong. Who knew?

10) Inflation Returns – Steep tariff increases on everything Chinese is rapidly feeding into rising US consumer prices. What do you think the Amazon (AMZN) wage hike to $15 means? If McDonald’s (MCD), Walmart (WMT), and Target (TGT) join them, we’re there. This is a stock market preeminently NOT prepared for a return of inflation.

I know you already have trouble sleeping at night. The above should make your insomnia problem much worse.

Try a 10-mile hike with a heavy pack every night in the mountains. It works for me.

Down the Ambien, and full speed ahead!

 

A Threat to Your Portfolio?

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/10032018-image.png 429 649 MHFTF https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTF2020-10-23 09:02:292020-10-23 09:36:5511 Surprises that Would Destroy This Market
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

October 2, 2020

Tech Letter



Mad Hedge Technology Letter
October 2, 2020
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(THE JEWEL OF FOOD TECH)
(BYND), (WMT), (DIS)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-10-02 10:04:272020-10-02 10:44:36October 2, 2020
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

The Jewel of Food Tech

Tech Letter

I don’t get into food tech that often but one company that I have been highly bullish on that keeps delivering month over month is plant-based meat provider Beyond Meat (BYND).

The deals just keep rolling in for Beyond Meat as it announced that it had expanded its distribution deal with Walmart (WMT).

The all-American supermarket will now carry Beyond Meat in 2,400 of its stores, up from 800 before, and is a decisive victory for Beyond Meat whose non-animal-based meat is quickly becoming ubiquitous all over the U.S.

Their footprint is really expanding at a rapid clip because Walmart is actually the biggest grocer in the U.S. by sales. Now, Beyond Meat products will be in about half of the retailer’s U.S. stores.

The plant-based burger company has had a breakout year and has rallied nearly 120% as we speak and I recommended buying this stock in the low 70s.

That stock has made a double from that recommendation.

The first-mover advantage combined with the health pandemic has worked wonders for this company that hopes to supplant animal-based meat as the staple food for decades to come.

Now we are grappling with problems that every publicly traded company hopes to have – high valuations.

The current valuation is perceived as high because the growth engine powering Beyond Meat is clicking on all cylinders.

For companies like Beyond Meat, expanded distribution can immediately boost revenue because the capacity to deliver meat increases in an instant.

Beyond Meat typically recognizes revenue when products are delivered to retail and food-service locations, not when they finally sell through to the end consumer, so they have incentives to get their product in as many places as possible.

Beyond’s expanded distribution deal with Walmart validates the growth story to outside investors and legitimates the road map that management has aggressively targeted.

Beyond Meat’s latest move to expand the distribution of Beyond Burger meshes well with the company’s efforts to make its products more accessible across grocery chains.

It's rumored that Walmart and Beyond have cultivated an extremely healthy working relationship setting the stage for more collaboration in the future and, of course, more products in the store window.

Beyond Meat’s frozen products were first launched at Walmart’s stores in 2015. Since then, the company has expanded its in-store offerings at Walmart to include Beyond Burger and Beyond Sausage in the in-person fresh meat section, while the Beyond Breakfast Sausage patties were recently added in the freezer aisle.

This is all while consumers haven’t absorbed the full scope of health benefits incurred by eating substitute meat products.

The pandemic has created a new generation of health-obsessed consumers and Beyond Meat is well placed to cater to such growing interests.

In fact, Beyond Meat has doubled down on being a leading provider of healthy plant-based meat alternatives whose products are made from simple ingredients.

The numbers speak for themselves as Beyond Burger contains 35% less saturated fat and has no added cholesterol, antibiotics, or hormones. It is also free of GMOs, soy, or gluten. Beyond Burger —  made out of peas, mung bean, and rice —  closely mirrors the taste of a traditional beef burger.

The stay-at-home food preparation revolution was catalyzed by the pandemic, relative deliveries to dining establishments have been killed off.

During the second quarter, strong retail channel sales volumes drove the company’s top line that surged 69% year on year.

The company’s efforts to expand and diversify retail channel offerings are likely to bear fruit. Last week, the company announced the expansion of its frozen Beyond Breakfast Sausage patties to more than 5,000 additional stores across the United States. The added distribution locations include grocery chains like Kroger KR, Harris Teeter, Target's TGT Super Target stores, Publix. Earlier this month, the company launched Beyond Meatballs across grocery stores. Markedly, Beyond Meatballs marks the company’s third new retail product introduced in 2020, following the launches of Beyond Breakfast Sausage and Cookout Classic.

The one potential headwind to keep note of that could dampen enthusiasm for Beyond is the growing competition right around the corner that has led to various analysts to downgrade the stock. 

JPMorgan was one of them citing market share loss at grocery stores to its biggest competitor, Impossible Foods Inc.

Analysts also cited waning volume at restaurants, which are slower to add “complexity” to the menu during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Other brands getting in on the fun are Morningstar brand, expanding its Incogmeato line of plant-based proteins with help from Walt Disney Co. (DIS), with the launch of Mickey Mouse shaped Chick’n Nuggets.

The item is meant to appeal to families and could create a market of lifelong plant-based meat eaters.

Dr. Praeger’s launched beef and chicken plant-based sliders this week.

Meatless Farm, a British-based food company, has landed in the U.S. And another global plant-based food company, Chile-based NotCo, is planning to bring its products to the U.S. after recently closing an $85 million round of funding.

Beyond is still a true growth stock and putting money in the early innings will harvest alpha.

Keeping tabs on the competition is something that any trader can’t ignore, and even though the moat isn’t that wide, if Beyond keeps operating at a high level, shares should be bought and held.

 

plant based meat

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-10-02 10:02:392020-10-14 17:28:06The Jewel of Food Tech
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

August 31, 2020

Tech Letter



Mad Hedge Technology Letter
August 31, 2020
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(WALMART’S QUEST TO BECOME THE NEXT AMAZON)
(WMT), (MSFT), (ORCL), (GOOGL), (AMZN)

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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Walmart's Quest to Become the Next Amazon

Tech Letter

U.S. tech is about to hit a 10-bagger when TikTok is set to choose between the Microsoft (MSFT)-Walmart hybrid offer or one from Oracle (ORCL) in the next 48 hours.

The network effect that will result from this purchase will be staggering and still underhyped in the mainstream media.

I am on record saying that Walmart is the new Fang, and their ambitions prove it.

Walmart (WMT) wanted to be the majority owner of TikTok, but the U.S. government wanted a technology company to be the lead investor.

I am not sure how that makes sense in an age where every company is a tech company.

Walmart was originally in a consortium with Google (GOOGL) before moving over in recent days to partner with Microsoft (MSFT) when it became clear the retailer would not be able to lead the deal.

Walmart is validating my thesis that it is a hybrid ecommerce company with its last earnings report 2 weeks ago.

In the company’s Q2 earnings, Walmart reported its U.S. ecommerce sales were up 97% — an increase attributed to more customers shopping online during the pandemic, stocking up on household supplies and shopping for grocery items online.

The TikTok deal first started with Walmart negotiating with SoftBank Chief Operating Officer Marcelo Claure.

SoftBank’s Claure believed Walmart’s all-American image and Google’s cloud computing infrastructure backbone could be a way in for the Japanese technology company.

The deal structure would have had Walmart as the lead buyer, with SoftBank and Alphabet acquiring minority stakes. One or two other minority holders held talks to join too but this ultimately was nixed by the U.S. government.

Walmart’s goal is to become the exclusive e-commerce and payments provider for TikTok and have access to user data to enhance those capabilities.

U.S. national security hawks need to save face by having a thoroughbred U.S. tech company lead the deal to show that this isn’t just about underhanded economic mercantilism.

Google could face significant antitrust opposition if it acquired TikTok’s U.S. assets.

Amazon is out of the picture too for anti-trust worries.

These concerns caused the consortium to crumble last week and led Walmart, which had become increasingly convinced that TikTok fits into its strategy, to partner with Microsoft on a bid instead.

TikTok is pondering which way to go – either the Microsoft-Walmart bid or a rival offer from Oracle. A deal, which is set to value TikTok’s U.S. operations in the $20 billion to $30 billion range, could be completed in the next 48 hours.

What does this mean for Walmart?

Walmart is hellbent on directly competing with Amazon prime for that same ecommerce market.

Walmart ecommerce sales now total more than $10 billion in quarterly U.S. ecommerce sales, exceeding 11.4% of the retail giant’s overall U.S. net sales for the first time.

The achievement reflects the ongoing shift toward online shopping amid the pandemic, and the increasingly fuzzy line between online and physical retail sales. It is also an example of the pandemic accelerating the shift to digital commerce at traditional brick-and-mortar retailers.

The timing isn’t a coincidence with Walmart on the verge of rolling out its own Amazon Prime service dubbed Walmart+.

Walmart’s new membership program is expected to cost $98/year, competing with Amazon’s $119/year Prime membership.

Amazon’s global online sales are 4.5X larger than Walmart’s at $45.9 billion for the quarter, up nearly 50%, and its physical retail sales were $3.8 billion, down 13% from the same period a year ago.

Walmart has significant headway to make before it comes close to Amazon Prime but there are fertile pastures in front of them, meaning I believe Walmart is a conviction buy at these levels.

At the bare minimum, this is a conspicuous sign of intent for Walmart that has successfully turned around the titanic and is a real time player in ecommerce.

They will be on the prowl for other tech purchases in the future as well as they certainly have the cash flow to pull the trigger on adding more tech talent to the lineup.

If Walmart reels in TikTok, I recommend long-term investors to buy Walmart as a tech growth asset and it is easily a $200 stock.

walmart ecommerce

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-08-31 11:02:002020-08-31 22:03:52Walmart's Quest to Become the Next Amazon
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

July 20, 2020

Tech Letter



Mad Hedge Technology Letter
July 20, 2020
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(THE RACE TO THE BOTTOM),
(SCHW), (FB), (SQ), (WMT), (AMZN), (FFIDX), (BOX)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-07-20 12:04:022020-07-20 12:54:29July 20, 2020
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

June 19, 2020

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
June 19, 2020
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(JUNE 17 BIWEEKLY STRATEGY WEBINAR Q&A),
(SPY), (AAPL), (FXE), (FXA), (BA), (UAL), (AAPL), (MSFT), (BIIB), (PFE), (OXY), (SPCE), (WMT), (CSCO), (TGT)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-06-19 09:04:082020-06-19 09:31:27June 19, 2020
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